Sweden avoiding lockdown

Vieira82

whippet wrote: »

Speaking again to my brother in Sweden ... he has no confidence in anything he hears or reads in the local media ... claims that event the journalists are burying their heads in the sand claiming that no one could have seen what was coming (apart from the rest of the world) ... there is a ingrained national pride that won’t allow them to fully admit they made a shambles of it.

He has now locked down in his farm with the family and in-laws with enough supplies until Feb and has no intention of leaving his land.

Hope for all the best for your brother and his family... to be honest looking at the data in Europe it's going to be a long three months until Spring...

I myself got a medical emergency, given a letter to go to ER but I'm avoiding it because I'm in a vulnerable group and the news from CUH are not good. Was there during the Summer twice when cases where low and it was absolutely chaotic, can't imagine how it is now..

On other news, I got a friend in Oslo, Norway, he changed jobs twice since beginning of the year, he lost his restaurant job back in March, then went to work in a warehouse and this week he's starting back in another restaurant. He just became a first time father of a baby boy and pretty much told me life is normal within the social distancing, mask wearing and personal hygiene guidelines we all should be following...

And today CNN has this news report about Denmark, Norway and Finland...

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/20/europe/europe-covid-restrictions/index.html

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

99.7% of elderly Swedes have survived the pandemic. 99.7% of elderly Irish have survived the pandemic.

Your long running attempts to portray the Swedes as a nation of granny kilkers has fallen flat. If they are granny killers, then so are we. Don't be a hypocrite like a good lad.

You're just rehashng the same old discredited nonsense, everyone agrees on that.

You'd swear the Swedes killed off 50% of their elderly the way you continually exagerate. Its really tiresome.

You'd wonder what Swedish readers of this thread think of you. I'd imagine a finger pointing grade A hypocrite is their opinion.

Away with the wife for a few days and missed this.

If you cannot post in a civil manner without attempting to misrepresent posts then perhaps you should look to yourself first before erronously attempting to judge others.

I did not call some in Sweden "granny killers".
The closest I have seen pointing that finger is Sweden`s own Coronavirus Commission first report on elderly care homes at their own government and Public Health Authority.
I said we were equally at fault but what really appears to have hit a nerve with you is that for the rest of the population Sweden have per capita 220% more deaths than Ireland.

When it come to Swedish readers of this thread, rather than worry about what they may make of my posts, again perhaps best to look to your own. I imagine there are quite a few that are mystified by your belief that they now have no form of lockdown or that their now defunct Public Health Authority strategy was a success when their own king publicly termed it a failure and their own Prime Minister says they got it wrong.

mcsean2163

odyssey06 wrote: »

I said life year.
Do you consider one year less of life to be the equivalent of e.g. someone on 80000 a year being unemployed for a year?
When a 60 or 70 or 80 year old comes into hospital with pneumonia, or a heart attack does someone crunch the numbers before putting them in ICU based on a QALY figure?

Regardless, the report was supposed to show the lockdown cost more lives than it saves. It shows no such thing.

And people are dying in hospital FROM coronavirus.
Someone under 45 can put someone 55 into ICU with it and an 80 year old into the grave.
The virus exploits our humanity to spread.

edit

Viruses don't have brains. All coronaviruses or colds, as we called them until recently, spread in a similar fashion

bb1234567

Miccoli wrote: »

How can you not go with the excess deaths "idea", it basically confirms that not locking down for covid did not cause an increase in deaths in Sweden this year. They carried on relatively normally and saw a normal year in terms of deaths.

You bring up their Scandinavian neighbours having much lower covid death rates, which is a fair point, but at the same time there are 23 countries in the world with higher covid death rates per capita than Sweden, many of whom had hard lockdowns. That shows Swedens covid strategy was not an absolute failure nor was is it a success in terms of limiting covid deaths. From what I've gathered though, there strategy was not based around having zero covid deaths like New Zealand. Rather it was about keeping as normal a functioning society as possible whilst not seeing a huge increase in deaths. The excess death statistics show they've managed that.

Your point on lockdown saving lives for non covid diseases (apart from flu) is absolute nonsense aswell. There are Numerous studies out at this point stating that lockdown has actually increased non covid deaths.

Well I'm not dismissing the study perhaps they are applicable to some situations and countries but if that's true then ireland's deaths this year should be higher than normal. But they are significantly less than any other year of the last decade, deaths from all causes are thousands below normal, Ireland by all means has had the longest example of what would be considered 'lockdown' in Europe if not the world. So if deaths are so low here then what about lockdowns in Europe caused increase in mortality?
Most Europeans countries have seen by far their highest total annual deaths since 1945. Ireland is one of very exceptions in Europe to see reduced mortality rates in 2020.

Bit cynical

bb1234567 wrote: »

Well I'm not dismissing the study perhaps they are applicable to some situations and countries but if that's true then ireland's deaths this year should be higher than normal. But they are significantly less than any other year of the last decade, deaths from all causes are thousands below normal, Ireland by all means has had the longest example of what would be considered 'lockdown' in Europe if not the world. So if deaths are so low here then what about lockdowns in Europe caused increase in mortality?
Most Europeans countries have seen by far their highest total annual deaths since 1945. Ireland is one of very exceptions in Europe to see reduced mortality rates in 2020.

I think possibly some of these forecasts of increased deaths due to lockdown are pointing to the years ahead rather than during the lockdown itself. It may be that very prolonged restrictions such as in Ireland, actually lower overall deaths in the short term but increase them in the longer term.

SheepsClothing

Why is there even an argument about copying Sweden at this point? It seems clear that the countries who adopted a zero covid approach had the right idea and everyone else had some variation of the wrong idea.

bb1234567

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think possibly some of these forecasts of increased deaths due to lockdown are pointing to the years ahead rather than during the lockdown itself. It may be that very prolonged restrictions such as in Ireland, actually lower overall deaths in the short term but increase them in the longer term.

That's true no doubt.But I am genuinely curious to know what about European lockdowns is causing additional short term deaths too however. As I said I wasn't dismissing the study but Ireland is a glaring example bucking the trend of lockdown associated mortality increase, as is New Zealand. European countries such as UK, Spain and Italy have tens of thousands of additional excess deaths above the confirmed COVID death toll . I really doubt that there are many COVID deaths being missed in a European context given how much testing is going on. Apart from lockdown what could be causing the additional deaths? But then of course it is odd that lockdown is not causing this extra excess in Ireland. Even just across the border up North their excess deaths are very significantly higher than their COVID death toll. NI has a particularly large discrepancy, excess deaths there are 60% higher than the confirmed COVID deaths.

sydthebeat

SheepsClothing wrote: »

Why is there even an argument about copying Sweden at this point? It seems clear that the countries who adopted a zero covid approach had the right idea and everyone else had some variation of the wrong idea.

whos arguing to copy sweden at this point?

SheepsClothing

sydthebeat wrote: »

whos arguing to copy sweden at this point?

What's this thread, if not an argument to emulate the enlightened Swedes?

Why is that everywhere I go and every forum I visit, I'm hearing and reading about living alongside the virus like that is at all a viable approach?

Wompa1

It's true. Go back through the thread. When cases went low earlier this year people were pointing to Sweden saying they got it right despite the fact the data even then showed otherwise.

It's a tough one. I wish we did go for a zero COVID strategy back in March, April and May but I don't fully blame the Government. It would be impossible without cooperation in the North and that still doesn't look likely.

sydthebeat

SheepsClothing wrote: »

What's this thread, if not an argument to emulate the enlightened Swedes?

Why is that everywhere I go and every forum I visit, I'm hearing and reading about living alongside the virus like that is at all a viable approach?

but you said "at this point"......

who, at this point, is arguing anyone should be copying sweden?

the thread started last april, so its completely pointless trying to argue against what was said 9 months ago.

SheepsClothing

Wompa1 wrote: »

It's true. Go back through the thread. When cases went low earlier this year people were pointing to Sweden saying they got it right despite the fact the data even then showed otherwise.

It's a tough one. I wish we did go for a zero COVID strategy back in March, April and May but I don't fully blame the Government. It would be impossible without cooperation in the North and that still doesn't look likely.

I think with better testing and a proper track and trace apparatus, together with border restrictions, the opportunity was there to emulate what Norway and Finland have managed to do as Europe's best performers. Alas, it wasn't to be and at this point, we are just going to have to muddle through until vaccinations are widely available.

greyday

sydthebeat wrote: »

but you said "at this point"......

who, at this point, is arguing anyone should be copying sweden?

the thread started last april, so its completely pointless trying to argue against what was said 9 months ago.

Frank is constantly arguing that Swedens approach is correct, he is consistently pointing at Countries that tried to copy Swedens approach and either closed down to late or opened to early having high death rates as the reason to follow Sweden, he refuses to compare to their neighbours and has stopped comparing to Ireland as well, He says Germany is up the creek with less infections or deaths than Sweden, produces bogus figures constantly about Sweden to support his view.

greyday

https://www.thelocal.se/20201221/analysis-will-someone-have-to-resign-over-swedens-coroanvirus-strategy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/20/as-covid-death-toll-soars-ever-higher-sweden-wonders-who-to-blame

Looks like some people will be out of jobs soon.

sydthebeat

greyday wrote: »

Frank is constantly arguing that Swedens approach is correct, he is consistently pointing at Countries that tried to copy Swedens approach and either closed down to late or opened to early having high death rates as the reason to follow Sweden, he refuses to compare to their neighbours and has stopped comparing to Ireland as well, He says Germany is up the creek with less infections or deaths than Sweden, produces bogus figures constantly about Sweden to support his view.

Frank, for as much as i have been disagreeing with him here... is only ever arguing that swedens approach is right FOR THEM.

I am not aware from his recent posts that he is arguing us, or anybody else, should be copying the approach they are taking right now (albeit, they are in lockdown now)

now frank can come on and clarify that, if im incorrect... but from my understanding of his argument, hes only ever argued that what sweden did, and are doing, was the right approach for them, when compared to others.


saying

Why is there even an argument about copying Sweden at this point?

is just creating a strawman to argue against

Vieira82

Don't know if this was shared here already but...

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-sweden-deadliest-november-spanish-flu.html

greyday

sydthebeat wrote: »

Frank, for as much as i have been disagreeing with him here... is only ever arguing that swedens approach is right FOR THEM.

I am not aware from his recent posts that he is arguing us, or anybody else, should be copying the approach they are taking right now (albeit, they are in lockdown now)

now frank can come on and clarify that, if im incorrect... but from my understanding of his argument, hes only ever argued that what sweden did, and are doing, was the right approach for them, when compared to others.


saying is just creating a strawman to argue against

He has said Irelands approach is unsustainable while Swedens approach with diabolical numbers in comparison is sustainable, he went as far as saying Germany was up the creek when they had far better figures than Sweden.
Tagnells mentor said the Swedish strategy suited Sweden but he does not get any air time now, I would not waste my time checking Franks posts but rest assured he has said multiple times we would all have to follow Sweden.

ginoginelli

Sweden's **** up really is indisputable now. Anybody still arguing that it was an appropriate strategy is in cuckoo land. Comical ali territory.

Danzy

ginoginelli wrote: »

Sweden's **** up really is indisputable now. Anybody still arguing that it was an appropriate strategy is in cuckoo land. Comical ali territory.

That won't be known for a long time yet, though it seems so.

It's also worth noting that Swedens current wave seems to have already peaked and its fatalities per day is right down on 2 weeks ago.

The Dutch pursued the same strategy but with no fanfare. The Dutch approach up to a few weeks ago was zero social response. Yet there isn't a thread on them. The Swedes are distant socially as is, the Swedes also have had a proper testing response, Which isn't happening in the Netherlands, so who knows what their real death rate is.

charlie14

Danzy wrote: »

That won't be known for a long time yet, though it seems so.

It's also worth noting that Swedens current wave seems to have already peaked and its fatalities per day is right down on 2 weeks ago.

The Dutch pursued the same strategy but with no fanfare. The Dutch approach up to a few weeks ago was zero social response. Yet there isn't a thread on them. The Swedes are distant socially as is, the Swedes also have had a proper testing response, Which isn't happening in the Netherlands.

Except Sweden`s figures on infections and deaths do not show that.

Dec. 11 -18. 47,022 new cases and 479 deaths.
Dec. 4 - 11. 41,186 new cases and 447 deaths.
Nov. 27 - 4. 35,783 new cases and 386 deaths.

WhiteMemento9

Guardian - Champions of herd immunity once lauded the Nordic refuseniks. All that has changed now

greyday

Danzy wrote: »

That won't be known for a long time yet, though it seems so.

It's also worth noting that Swedens current wave seems to have already peaked and its fatalities per day is right down on 2 weeks ago.

The Dutch pursued the same strategy but with no fanfare. The Dutch approach up to a few weeks ago was zero social response. Yet there isn't a thread on them. The Swedes are distant socially as is, the Swedes also have had a proper testing response, Which isn't happening in the Netherlands, so who knows what their real death rate is.

Swedens death rate is above their first peak if we are to believe research released by a Nordic bank last week, their data is about 10 days behind, they have increasing deaths and infection rates which point to the peak not being reached yet for deaths.

fisgon

Interesting map here. Easy to spot Sweden - it's the region with very dark colours (signifying a lot of virus) between two light-coloured regions....

greyday

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2020/12/sweden-s-covid-19-failures-have-exposed-myths-lockdown-sceptics

Would criminal negligence charges be warranted considering they never tried to suppress the virus knowing full well that the more it circulated in the community the greater the risk of it reaching the most vulnerable they were responsible to care for?

greyday

22K infections and 174 deaths, looks sustainable according to Frank.

Kivaro

greyday wrote: »

22K infections and 174 deaths, looks sustainable according to Frank.

I don't understand their rationale in allowing this to happen. The old and vulnerable were always going to be a target for this virus, based on the existing information at the time.
Sweden has turned into one really weird country these last number of years.

greyday

I hope Tegnell, Lovren and the rest are treated the same when they hit their elderly years as Swedens most vulnerable have been treated this time around, would like to see their faces just before they pass away listening to the Doctor on the phone telling the nurses to administer morphine.

MadYaker

Danzy wrote: »

That won't be known for a long time yet, though it seems so.

It's also worth noting that Swedens current wave seems to have already peaked and its fatalities per day is right down on 2 weeks ago.

The Dutch pursued the same strategy but with no fanfare. The Dutch approach up to a few weeks ago was zero social response. Yet there isn't a thread on them. The Swedes are distant socially as is, the Swedes also have had a proper testing response, Which isn't happening in the Netherlands, so who knows what their real death rate is.

The Dutch are currently on their second full lockdown. Not sure where you're getting your info from. When the swedish gov themselves are saying they've failed you're going to have hard time arguing othrwise.

greyday

Hope Frank didn't get Covid, he hasn't been on for a while now to explain how Swedens strategy is sustainable.

tobefrank321

@greyday, didn't get covid, thanks for the concern. I don't generally post on here at weekends or if theres no results from sweden. I'm unlikely to post here much over the christmas. And I don't really see much point posting here much unless something radically changes in the future.
Sweden is mid table, has been for months now. In there supposed disastrous first wave, the two worst days were 115 deaths. They have come nowhere near to that in the second wave. A number of similarily sized countries continually register more than 115 deaths almost on a daily basis for the last 6 weeks.
The countries who did best in the first wave are in serious trouble this wave and doing very very bad.
Sweden meanwhile continues to be mid table. They were passed by Croatia at the weekend and Switzerland look to be next with a fair number of countries on target to pass them within weeks including Portugal who are on the periphery of Europe with only one land border and who were lauded for their original lockdown.

In a couple of months time Sweden will be about 30th in the world and Ireland about 40th and they'll be separated by micro states like Litchenstein or countries like Aruba!

Sweden are mid table and likely to end up mid table. While I don't advocate we follow them, our new restrictions look similar to theirs apart from pubs and restaurants.