Sweden avoiding lockdown

Lux23

Sweden is midtable because 50% of its population live alone and Swedes generally do what they're told to do - so meeting 7 other people means meeting 7 other people. Not like here where two extra households is four or five according to some that I know!

Plus if we look at countries like China, Taiwan and Singapore - the first lockdown got them down to zero and they are still keeping their numbers low, so we can't argue that a severe lockdown doesn't work, if you follow it up with strict controls upon opening.

JimmyVik

greyday wrote: »

Hope Frank didn't get Covid, he hasn't been on for a while now to explain how Swedens strategy is sustainable.

He has travelled to Sweden as a special consultant on covid strategy. He is explaining to them all over there how they actually didnt get it wrong so they should stop saying that. He is also saying "what about ... " a lot to them.

BryanMartin21

Miccoli wrote: »

We've likely seen 12 months of covid in Sweden already considering it's been confirmed to have been in the UK, France and Spain since December of 2019, so your point doesn't really add up.

There death rates were lower in Q3 than previous years with no lockdowns and covid rampant apparently, so how did there failure of a strategy manage that?

Can't help but feel people are somewhat dissapointed that Sweden has seen a completely normal year in terms of deaths, despite the apocalyptic predictions made back in March when they didn't lockdown.

Refusal to accept that last paragraph is the reason this thread persists.

Danzy

MadYaker wrote: »

The Dutch are currently on their second full lockdown. Not sure where you're getting your info from. When the swedish gov themselves are saying they've failed you're going to have hard time arguing othrwise.

Family and friends in Holland.

I don't advocate for the Swedish approach.

greyday

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32750-1/fulltext

I suppose Frank thinks the lancet is just tabloid propaganda as well..............

charlie14

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

Refusal to accept that last paragraph is the reason this thread persists.

Not really. The paragraph you refer too is incorrect. Sweden is not going to have "a completely normal year in terms of deaths"

The only reason this thread still exists is because there are still a few that refuse to accept what the Swedish government now finally has.
The Public Health Authority strategy of Tegnell and Giesecke in particular, on herd immunity during the first wave and their predictions of large scale immunity during the second, was a complete failure and Sweden is now using lockdown. Not avoiding it as the title of this thread states.

Why the refuse to accept this, especially with Sweden`s numbers, Sweden`s own king stating it was a failure and the Swedish Prime Minister stating the Public Health Authority got it wrong really just beggars belief.

JimmyVik

charlie14 wrote: »

Not really. The paragraph you refer too is incorrect. Sweden is not going to have "a completely normal year in terms of deaths"

The only reason this thread still exists is because there are still a few that refuse to accept what the Swedish government now finally has.
The Public Health Authority strategy of Tegnell and Giesecke in particular, on herd immunity during the first wave and their predictions of large scale immunity during the second, was a complete failure and Sweden is now using lockdown. Not avoiding it as the title of this thread states.

Why the refuse to accept this, especially with Sweden`s numbers, Sweden`s own king stating it was a failure and the Swedish Prime Minister stating the Public Health Authority got it wrong really just beggars belief.

Tegnell will take the walk soon enough.

charlie14

JimmyVik wrote: »

Tegnell will take the walk soon enough.

Carlson being Tegnell and Giesecke`s boss, even though he does not appear to have taken an active part in forming the herd immunity strategy, will most likely end up being the sacrificial lamb and go before his term is up in October.

greyday

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/sweden-coronavirus-covid-response/

A fairly scathing attack on Swedens strategy.

greyday

112 deaths and nearly 7k infections with incomplete data.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

@greyday, didn't get covid, thanks for the concern. I don't generally post on here at weekends or if theres no results from sweden. I'm unlikely to post here much over the christmas. And I don't really see much point posting here much unless something radically changes in the future.
Sweden is mid table, has been for months now. In there supposed disastrous first wave, the two worst days were 115 deaths. They have come nowhere near to that in the second wave. A number of similarily sized countries continually register more than 115 deaths almost on a daily basis for the last 6 weeks.
The countries who did best in the first wave are in serious trouble this wave and doing very very bad.
Sweden meanwhile continues to be mid table. They were passed by Croatia at the weekend and Switzerland look to be next with a fair number of countries on target to pass them within weeks including Portugal who are on the periphery of Europe with only one land border and who were lauded for their original lockdown.

In a couple of months time Sweden will be about 30th in the world and Ireland about 40th and they'll be separated by micro states like Litchenstein or countries like Aruba!

Sweden are mid table and likely to end up mid table. While I don't advocate we follow them, our new restrictions look similar to theirs apart from pubs and restaurants.

Genuinely glad you have fallen victim to this virus, but have you fallen and hit your head ?
"our new restrictions look similar to theirs apart from pubs and restaurants"

Apart from the fact the Swedish government now have no legislative authority to close pubs, restaurants, shops or shopping center having let it lapse in June, and are now scrambling to have it reinstated early January, t Sweden which was never going to need, according to some here because of their superior strategy to use lockdown, are now following everyone else. Including Ireland.

Do you honestly believe the average Swede is going to give a toss at the end of the day as to where they stand in comparison to Croatia Switzerland, Portugal, Lichtenstein or Aruba ?

From the first report of their Coronavirus Commission, even under the narrow parameters allowed, has finally woken up, (or more correctly shamed), mainstream Swedish media and the Sweden`s citizens from their unquestioning support of the original strategy.
The comparisons there are now being made between Sweden and it`s Nordic neighbours. It is becoming already, and rightly so, very uncomfortable for many there in authority and only going to go in one direction.

greyday

Well Frank, according to a research paper released by a Nordic bank last week, Sweden is already above the daily death rate then the first wave, you like to use their incomplete data to suggest everything is under control but they are spiralling further out of control as each week passes, its a pity they decided to report on Corona different to practically every other Country in Europe, I know you would say that is for accuracy while I would think its for very different reasons, we will know the full extent of the hames they made of this when the official report comes out in 2022, it does not look good for those responsible as the interim report was not something you would boast about being responsible for, Tegnell is now being blamed for the horrific state of the UK as he explained to Boris what a complete success the Swedish strategy was in September, explained why Sweden would not have a second wave in October and has now been sidelined with a gimp mask on in his office

tobefrank321

Sweden registered 112 notified deaths today. As Sweden only publishes deaths 3 days a week as opposed to everyone elses 7, you'd have to divide Swedens daily total by 2.14 to get a 1 day figure. 112 divided by 2.14 is 52 deaths.
Denmark registered 26 deaths today, a new high. Proportionally thats the equivalent of 46 deaths in Sweden.
So not a huge difference today.
I'm keeping an eye on Denmarks figures and they aren't good. They regularly post over 3000 cases a day now. And Sweden are now restricting travel from Denmark and the UK which is sensible.

tobefrank321

Croatia passed Sweden on deaths per million a couple days ago and Switzerland are on course to do the same over the next few days. Couple other countries lined up to do the same.

greyday

Incomplete data from Sweden, you can try to make an argument for Tuesdays reporting for the previous 3 days of non reporting but the same argument doesn't hold for Wednesday if you want to go down that road, also we know Sweden are so far behind in their reporting that the numbers given are well below the reality, check the graphs for deaths and they look to be dropping when in reality they are increasing.
This article explains it fairly well but there may be more to it than covered in the article, I wonder if everyone who dies in Sweden is tested for Covid.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting

GreeBo

tobefrank321 wrote: »

. And Sweden are now restricting travel from Denmark and the UK which is sensible.

If herd immunity is their thing, why restrict anyone?

greyday

GreeBo wrote: »

If herd immunity is their thing, why restrict anyone?

They are just trying to play along with the game that herd immunity was not their strategy, why else would they ban the UK when their figures are worse, they have worse figures than Denmark as well and we know Denmarks testing and reporting is up to scratch which is not something we can say about Sweden as their own healthcare professionals have questioned their testing from day 1 and still do so today.

tobefrank321

GreeBo wrote: »

If herd immunity is their thing, why restrict anyone?

Good question. You'd have to ask those who think Sweden let it rip. In reality they have a large number of restrictions.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Sweden registered 112 notified deaths today. As Sweden only publishes deaths 3 days a week as opposed to everyone elses 7, you'd have to divide Swedens daily total by 2.14 to get a 1 day figure. 112 divided by 2.14 is 52 deaths.
Denmark registered 26 deaths today, a new high. Proportionally thats the equivalent of 46 deaths in Sweden.
So not a huge difference today.
I'm keeping an eye on Denmarks figures and they aren't good. They regularly post over 3000 cases a day now. And Sweden are now restricting travel from Denmark and the UK which is sensible.

Sweden posts statistics 4 times a week not 3, but there is no need for the complicated mathematics to determine the daily average.
Even with Sweden being Sweden where they are likely incomplete and will be added too.
Deaths for last week, 11th. to 18th, December were 447. A daily average of 68.
For the previous week, 4th. to 11th. deaths were 479. A daily average of 64.

Today`s 26 deaths in Denmark are the equivalent of 46 deaths in Sweden. Today Sweden reported 112 deaths. That`s a huge difference. Close to 2.5 times greater.

biko

As long as Sweden doesn't come out as the very worst country in the world the government and the responsible parties won't step down.

Instead they will pat each other on the back and say "we tried" while their neighbours think to themselves "what a ****ing bunch of tossers", and the neighbours will be right.

MadYaker

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Good question. You'd have to ask those who think Sweden let it rip. In reality they have a large number of restrictions.

They do now after they realised they got it completely wrong. They've said so themselves.

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

As long as Sweden doesn't come out as the very worst country in the world the government and the responsible parties won't step down.

Instead they will pat each other on the back and say "we tried" while their neighbours think to themselves "what a ****ing bunch of tossers", and the neighbours will be right.

They will be nowhere near the worst, not even close, not even in the worst 30 countries all of whom went down the lockdown route.

MadYaker

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They will be nowhere near the worst, not even close, not even in the worst 30 countries all of whom went down the lockdown route.

The Americans will take some beating alright.

Wolf359f

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Looking at today's figures from Sweden, it would definitely be a good time to declare a national lockdown for a month or two, especially in light of the Pfizer vaccine news and likely AstraZeneca vaccine too. The Swedish approach was a good idea when we had no idea if a vaccine was even possible or how effective it would be. Now it looks like we might have a very effective one soon. With this new information to hand, the Swedes should consider a full lockdown. Today's numbers aren't great, especially ICU numbers and new cases, an average of 4000 a day for the last 4 days. So much for their single household advantage, case numbers rose even faster than in Ireland!

So not having a lockdown was probably a good idea when they didn't know if or when there'd be a vaccine, but now is the time for a lockdown to get them to the vaccine rollout.

Amazing how you've seemed to backtrack.
Once there's other countries doing worse (and yes, most certainly there is) in your eyes Sweden can't be faulted. Well until there's a country that isn't or hasn't done as worse as Sweden.
This isn't a competition, comparing one country to one doing worse is just to deflect or make someones beliefs valid.

bb1234567

biko wrote: »

As long as Sweden doesn't come out as the very worst country in the world the government and the responsible parties won't step down.

Instead they will pat each other on the back and say "we tried" while their neighbours think to themselves "what a ****ing bunch of tossers", and the neighbours will be right.

To be fair, why would they? If they weren't the worst or even the closest to the worst what about the more limiting restrictions which by all means do not appear to be resulting in lower levels of deaths in many other countries makes Sweden want to do that?
I think that's crux of the issue , it's not that Sweden or anybody thinks deaths in Sweden or low or anything to write home about, it's just that all of the other **** other European countries are doing are not bearing the fruits of the labour. So, what is the point ? Ultimately how can it continue to be justified. Nobody is saying restrictions theoretically are not a good or potentially positive thing overall, but current form of restrictions in Europe are having many other neagtive side effects and rather inadequately achieving the one thing they are supposed to do effectively (limit COVID deaths).

JimmyVik

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Sweden registered 112 notified deaths today. As Sweden only publishes deaths 3 days a week as opposed to everyone elses 7, you'd have to divide Swedens daily total by 2.14 to get a 1 day figure. 112 divided by 2.14 is 52 deaths.
Denmark registered 26 deaths today, a new high. Proportionally thats the equivalent of 46 deaths in Sweden.
So not a huge difference today.
I'm keeping an eye on Denmarks figures and they aren't good. They regularly post over 3000 cases a day now. And Sweden are now restricting travel from Denmark and the UK which is sensible.

Werent you saying Sweden shouldnt be compared to Denmark not too long ago and you were picking other random countries to compare them to.
Make up your mind.

tobefrank321

Wolf359f wrote: »

Amazing how you've seemed to backtrack.
Once there's other countries doing worse (and yes, most certainly there is) in your eyes Sweden can't be faulted. Well until there's a country that isn't or hasn't done as worse as Sweden.
This isn't a competition, comparing one country to one doing worse is just to deflect or make someones beliefs valid.

We're comparing strategies. Lockdown has been held up on this thread as the best strategy in almost every case. That has proven to be false. I can and have given dozens of countries who tried the opposite approach to Sweden and ended in absymal failure, ending in the deaths of tens of thousands of people. Germany was held up as a great success story. They've had an average of 675 deaths a day for the last week, 20,000 deaths since the start of November, 5000 in icu, 886 deaths yesterday with 31,000 cases, 944 the day before.
Slovenia, Poland, Switzerland, Hungary all followed lockdown approach but its ending in failure and they are on course for a much worse outcome than Sweden. Lockdown does not in the majority of cases give the longterm success people think it does. Now its possible had all these failed countries followed the Swedish approach their deaths would be similar to today. This is exactly the point the Swedes made, that following lockdown was in most cases unlikely to make a difference to deaths.

JimmyVik

Frank.
Is there anything Sweden could have done differently that they might have had less covid deaths than they have had?

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

This is exactly the point the Swedes made, that following lockdown was in most cases unlikely to make a difference to deaths.

Then why have they done a complete u turn using lockdown under the powers they now have, and are rushing to bring in legislation to grant them even greater authority to do so if there point was correct ?

Widdensushi

charlie14 wrote: »

Then why have they done a complete u turn using lockdown under the powers they now have, and are rushing to bring in legislation to grant them even greater authority to do so if there point was correct ?

The vaccine