Sweden avoiding lockdown

greyday

Over 22k infections and 205 deaths with very incomplete reporting.

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

Certainly the way it seemed at the start but I don't think we really knew back then how much the thing would drag on. There was a sense that if we shut down hard enough we could more or less eradicate the virus and we could get back to normal even though a vaccine might take a bit longer.

I think the other thing is that we thought the likes of Sweden would have far greater deaths than they ended up having.

There was very little talk about being able to eradicate the virus at the start other than getting herd immunity from a vaccine or from Tegnells experiment with Swedens most vulnerable by going the infection route, as Sweden has had multiples of deaths of their nearest neighbours who took the prudent approach, I think its fair to say Tegnell has a lot of blood on his hands.

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

There was very little talk about being able to eradicate the virus at the start other than getting herd immunity from a vaccine or from Tegnells experiment with Swedens most vulnerable by going the infection route, as Sweden has had multiples of deaths of their nearest neighbours who took the prudent approach, I think its fair to say Tegnell has a lot of blood on his hands.

Well certainly I don't think there's ever been any suggestion that strict lockdowns don't reduce viral transmission. The problem has always been whether or not you can maintain that strict lockdown long enough for vaccine administration and also whether the costs of that lockdown outweigh the benefits.

If you can't maintain strict a lockdown then when you are inevitably forced to rescind it, there's a public backlash and cases rise even more than had milder restrictions been imposed. We are seeing this in a number of EU countries, where in the early phases they had very low rates of deaths but sadly more than compensated in the second wave and are now in the upper half of the scale for deaths.

It is, of course, still too early to say, but if it turns out that Sweden ends up with roughly the same level or lower of deaths per million as the EU as a whole but with far fewer restrictions over the period (and therefore lower deaths due to lockdown) then I think most people will agree that Sweden's strategy has been successful.

greyday

What we are seeing is Countries became complacent by looking at Sweden and thinking they were in control, the roadmap was to reduce infections, open up again until infections rose again and then revert back to lockdown until infections were lowered again, there was no other way until a vaccine became available but Tegnell decided he was the smartest of them all and something that had never been achieved before would just happen because he said so, he loved the celebrity status and as late as September was advising the English not to go the lockdown route because even with all the date available to say categorically that herd immunity would not be achieved through infection, he knew better than the data and all the other experts in the world.

charlie14

greyday wrote: »

Over 22k infections and 205 deaths with very incomplete reporting.

It`s over 10,000 more infections (32,490) and 205 deaths from incomplete reporting.
The rate of infection even at that are 6,500 a day for the period.
They just do not seem to be getting any kind of handle on the spread.

greyday

charlie14 wrote: »

It`s over 10,000 more infections (32,490) and 205 deaths from incomplete reporting.
The rate of infection even at that are 6,500 a day for the period.
They just do not seem to be getting any kind of handle on the spread.

Apologies....over 32K infections, sustainable

tobefrank321

josip wrote: »

The above is from the Guardian article posted earlier.
It doesn't appear that the Swedes overlooked the care homes, it looks more like wilful neglect at an organisational level.
Did they take that approach to prevent their hospitals being overrun or was it just an application of normal protocols?

Someone was explaining to me back in May that some countries, including Ireland, are less likely that others to transfer deteriorating elderly from nursing homes to hospitals.
The doctors in the nursing homes make a decision if there's any point or not.
Does anyone know if that's the reality or just hearsay?

Common practice in most countries, we've had doctors say it here, ie empty your hospitals in preparation for covid. So hospitals in a large number of countries emptied their hospitals, often sending elderly patients to nursing homes without a covid test. A child wouldn't make such a negligent decision.
I posted a couple times on this thread reports of hospitals refusing nursing home patients during the first wave here and in the UK.
And also posted a link to an official HSE website offering advice on end of life palative care for covid nursing home residents.
So not hearsay at all. There's been some horror stories from nursing homes all across Europe. The residents of one nursing home in Kerry was virtually abandonded recently with them left to themselves and mixing between infected and non infected patients. In Spain the army was sent to nursing homes and found residents dead in their beds with no staff around.
So a collective failure European wide unfortunately and us Irish should be the last to point fingers. But don't worry the usual people will be along shortly to do just that!

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

It`s over 10,000 more infections (32,490) and 205 deaths from incomplete reporting.
The rate of infection even at that are 6,500 a day for the period.
They just do not seem to be getting any kind of handle on the spread.

No country is. 41,000 cases in the UK yesterday, Germany up on 30,000 some days, NI 1500 cases, even Denmark topped 4000 some days. Its possibly because of one of the new variants. The UK in particular has some very tough measures these days and yet cases are at an all time high.

tobefrank321

Theres probably going to be a few days of high death registrations from Sweden to make up for the Christmas lag. One or two other countries are seeing the same. Lithuania registered 78 deaths so far today, the equivalent of about 300 in Sweden. I expect Ireland also to have some high death days before things settle down again. A couple of posters such as greyday won't get this, he rarely does!

Vieira82

funny how certain users took a Christmas break and only today back at work

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No country is. 41,000 cases in the UK yesterday, Germany up on 30,000 some days, NI 1500 cases, even Denmark topped 4000 some days. Its possibly because of one of the new variants. The UK in particular has some very tough measures these days and yet cases are at an all time high.

Denmark have admitted they should have locked down sooner, but now have introduced a hard lockdown while Sweden is still messing around with legislating for a law that they let lapse in June.


Denmark has 57% of Sweden`s population.
Proportionately that would equate to Denmark having 2,330 deaths compared to Sweden`s present 8,484, Denmark having 260,000 compared to Sweden`s present 428,000.
Denmark`s daily infections are still proportionately lower than those of Sweden.

14th Dec Denmark had 16.21 deaths per 100,000. Sweden 73.45.
From the figures above can you seriously see Denmark coming anywhere close to Sweden`s deaths ?

Sweden`s other two Nordic neighbours on the same date. Finland deaths per 100,000 6.21. Norway, 7.26.

humberklog

Denmark did exceptionally well during the summer particularly with keeping deaths low. However in the last 7 days up to yesterday they had 151 deaths in that one week alone.

It too is going through a rocky period.

kippy

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No country is. 41,000 cases in the UK yesterday, Germany up on 30,000 some days, NI 1500 cases, even Denmark topped 4000 some days. Its possibly because of one of the new variants. The UK in particular has some very tough measures these days and yet cases are at an all time high.

Measures are only effective if people follow them.

tobefrank321

Vieira82 wrote: »

funny how certain users took a Christmas break and only today back at work

You appear to have taken a weeks break yourself.
Working for HSE?

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Denmark have admitted they should have locked down sooner, but now have introduced a hard lockdown while Sweden is still messing around with legislating for a law that they let lapse in June.


Denmark has 57% of Sweden`s population.
Proportionately that would equate to Denmark having 2,330 deaths compared to Sweden`s present 8,484, Denmark having 260,000 compared to Sweden`s present 428,000.
Denmark`s daily infections are still proportionately lower than those of Sweden.

14th Dec Denmark had 16.21 deaths per 100,000. Sweden 73.45.
From the figures above can you seriously see Denmark coming anywhere close to Sweden`s deaths ?

Sweden`s other two Nordic neighbours on the same date. Finland deaths per 100,000 6.21. Norway, 7.26.

A lot of countries delayed their second lockdown. Harsh lockdowns tend to be unpopular. Arlene Foster delayed the NI one and we've seen how thats worked out.
Lockdown fatigue is the main reason a large number of countries delayed introducing restrictions in time, leading to catastrophic numbers of deaths, far worse than Sweden.

December was by far the worst month for deaths in the US with over 60,000 dying. Its probably related to Thanksgiving. We may see January a very bad month for cases and deaths in Europe due to christmas. Uk reported 53k cases today for example.

As for Denmark, its early days yet and all the trends are going in the wrong direction. But looking at a number of other countries with geographical or demographic advantages, they are on course to do much worse than Sweden.

greyday

Ah well, at least Frank Tegnell has admitted that late lockdowns are the cause of the shocking numbers we are now seeing, pity so many Countries paid any attention to Franks assertions about lockdowns in the first place.

TonyMaloney

greyday wrote: »

Ah well, at least Frank Tegnell has admitted that late lockdowns are the cause of the shocking numbers we are now seeing, pity so many Countries paid any attention to Franks assertions about lockdowns in the first place.

Really? Have you a link?

Vieira82

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You appear to have taken a weeks break yourself.
Working for HSE?

if you'd follow my posts you'd say im on extended holidays. But funny that you got the jist of it. Just wondering how much you're paid to keep this ball running

tobefrank321

Vieira82 wrote: »

if you'd follow my posts you'd say im on extended holidays. But funny that you got the jist of it. Just wondering how much you're paid to keep this ball running

If you followed my posts, I also said I wouldn't be posting much over christmas.

I think the swedes have better things to worry about than how they are perceived on boards.ie!

tobefrank321

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Really? Have you a link?

I dont bother with greyday anymore. As you can tell he's been reduced to immature personal attacks on me.

The concept of lockdown fatigue completely flew over his head, when everyone knows that harsh lockdowns and lockdown fatigue go hand in hand and its the main reason why a large number of lockdown countries failed in the end.

I fully expect him to keep up the personal attacks though!

charlie14

humberklog wrote: »

Denmark did exceptionally well during the summer particularly with keeping deaths low. However in the last 7 days up to yesterday they had 151 deaths in that one week alone.

It too is going through a rocky period.

It is going through a rocky period because they delayed their second lockdown, but still has per capita less daily infections than Sweden.
Thanks to it first lockdown Denmark has less than 1/4 of Sweden`s death and close to 1/2 Sweden`s total infections.

Sweden`s road is looking much rockier than Denmark`s. Many times more so than any of it`s neighbours who initially used lockdown.

`

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

As for Denmark, its early days yet and all the trends are going in the wrong direction. But looking at a number of other countries with geographical or demographic advantages, they are on course to do much worse than Sweden.

It`s not early days for Denmark. Coronavirus hit Denmark and all the Nordic countries at the same time.


How in God`s name can you make a statement that Denmark`s trends are going in the wrong direction while pretending to ignore that Sweden`s are not worse after the stats I posted. Or that Denmark has gone into a hard lockdown while Sweden is still pissing around attempting to reinstate a law they let lapse in June hoping that using it will lower their numbers.


At this stage I do not know whether you are either totally delusional or just arguing for the sake of argument,

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

It`s not early days for Denmark. Coronavirus hit Denmark and all the Nordic countries at the same time.


How in God`s name can you make a statement that Denmark`s trends are going in the wrong direction while pretending to ignore that Sweden`s are not worse after the stats I posted. Or that Denmark has gone into a hard lockdown while Sweden is still pissing around attempting to reinstate a law they let lapse in June hoping that using it will lower their numbers.


At this stage I do not know whether you are either totally delusional or just arguing for the sake of argument,

Let me see...the fact that Denmark in the last two weeks has posted record daily cases over 4000 on a couple occassions. Their population is about 20% bigger than Irelands so its the equivalent of about 3200 cases a day here. And 30 deaths notified yesterday and 150 in the last week, well up on previous weeks. That is certainly the wrong direction.

At the start of their second wave I meant. Its going to be far longer and worse than their first wave.

I've said countless times Sweden are mid table by the way, worst in scandanavia but on track to be eventually among the top ten in the EU.

Still waiting for you to admit Sweden will be mid table.

YFlyer

How long have they not given data?

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Let me see...the fact that Denmark in the last two weeks has posted record daily cases over 4000 on a couple occassions. Their population is about 20% bigger than Irelands so its the equivalent of about 3200 cases a day here. And 30 deaths notified yesterday and 150 in the last week, well up on previous weeks. That is certainly the wrong direction.

At the start of their second wave I meant. Its going to be far longer and worse than their first wave.

I've said countless times Sweden are mid table by the way, worst in scandanavia but on track to be eventually among the top ten in the EU.

Still waiting for you to admit Sweden will be mid table.

You throw up Denmark in comparison to Sweden. I show you where on multiple levels the trends in Sweden are worse than Denmark and off you hop to comparing Denmark to Ireland. Disingenuous doesn`t even come close.

I have no clue where Sweden will end up on this table, but I cannot see it not ending up much worse than it`s Scandinavian neighbours, and why.
Same reason that the Swedish regional authorities, Carl XVI Gustaf King of Sweden, and eventually the Swedish government did.
Practically everyone but you Frank.

That the strategy of Tegnell, Giesecke and the Public Health Authority was an unmitigated failure that has put them in the situation they now find themselves in.

charlie14

YFlyer wrote: »

How long have they not given data?

Today`s covered the previous 5 days, but are more than likely incomplete because of the holidays

Daily infections appear to be relatively accurate in general, but daily deaths can be taken with a pinch of salt due to how different regions report. You will often find deaths backdated to previous days or even weeks.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

You throw up Denmark in comparison to Sweden. I show you where on multiple levels the trends in Sweden are worse than Denmark and off you hop to comparing Denmark to Ireland. Disingenuous doesn`t even come close.

I have no clue where Sweden will end up on this table, but I cannot see it not ending up much worse than it`s Scandinavian neighbours, and why.
Same reason that the Swedish regional authorities, Carl XVI Gustaf King of Sweden, and eventually the Swedish government did.
Practically everyone but you Frank.

That the strategy of Tegnell, Giesecke and the Public Health Authority was an unmitigated failure that has put them in the situation they now find themselves in.

FFS. You've lost the plot. I was putting the Danish numbers in the context of what they would be in Ireland so people understand what out of control means.
The Danish numbers are obviously out of control. Take your head out of the sand for once.

Many countrys numbers are out of control. Why do you insist on denying this?

NI and Germany are the latest countries to be added to the failed lockdown experiment. Germany close to 1000 deaths yesterday. If this keeps up they'll end up one of the worst in Europe in a couple of months.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Today`s covered the previous 5 days, but are more than likely incomplete because of the holidays

Daily infections appear to be relatively accurate in general, but daily deaths can be taken with a pinch of salt due to how different regions report. You will often find deaths backdated to previous days or even weeks.

Sweden report total notified deaths and also the days they occured.

Vieira82

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If you followed my posts, I also said I wouldn't be posting much over christmas.

I think the swedes have better things to worry about than how they are perceived on boards.ie!

glad to know your employer at least allows you to have Christmas

biko

https://twitter.com/TouristInSpace/status/1343921201303982080?s=20

That's not all.
Social Democrat Morgan Johansson, Minister for Justice and Migration, also went to at least one shopping mall.
https://www.en24news.com/2020/12/the-nurses-protest-where-morgan-johansson-was-shoppingen.html

Social Democrat Lena Hallengren, Minister for Health and Social Affairs, went to at least one shopping mall.
https://nyhetsbyran.org/2020/12/29/lena-hallengren-i-mellandagsrean/

Social Democrat Dan Eliasson, head of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency that deals with the pandemic, flew to the Canary Islands for Christmas.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/dan-eliasson-flog-till-kanarieoarna-fore-jul/

Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, Minister for Finance, went skiing
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/39qq9v/magdalena-andersson-i-salen--besokte-skiduthyrning





So far five Social Democrat government members have flaunted the Prime Ministers call, including himself.
This after everyone else were told to stay home.