Sweden avoiding lockdown

STB.

dubrov wrote: »

Because the Pandemic is a long way from finished in Ireland.

For all anyone knows, the death total could end up the same (proportionately) here and we could be locked down for 6 months (which brings its own raft of social and economic issues).

Time will tell

There is already ample data out there of the effects of introduction of measures and their early introduction.

Time will tell ? Just like the UK, Sweden will be back peddling the minute their ICU's get hammered. By the way that is the whole idea of introducing measures slowing down its spread, not to hammer your ICU capacity. Like us their ICU capacity is 5-6 per 100k.

Given a quarter live on top of each other in Sweden, the spread all at the one time would be devastating.

Widdensushi wrote: »

scientists are a dime a dozen and they all have to have different opinions to justify their existence, for every scientist there is an equal but opposite scientist !

Internet Trolls are a dime a dozen, not professors etc. Simple matter their state epidemiologist’s policy choice has been strongly criticized by independent experts in Sweden. Some 22 of the country’s most prominent professors in infectious diseases and epidemiology.

Widdensushi

STB. wrote: »

Internet Trolls are a dime a dozen, not professors etc.

everyone that doesn't share your opinion is not a troll and a Google search says there were 7.8 million of them in 2013 so they are not exactly rare.

Bit cynical

biko wrote: »

2 Sweden, compared to its neighbours, are wilfully allowing its population to get infected in a hope some sort of herd immunity will kick in, when there is no evidence this approach will even work.

However it has to be remembered that the virus itself is only known a few months. Therefore not much data or evidence regarding immunity of those infected and subsequently recovered will be available anyway.

robinbird

STB. wrote: »

For context, Niall, You better check the source and the context of that.

1,511 out of 2,061 cases died in Sweden. Another 10% of current cases are in critical condition.

We have 14,758 cases in total. 14,110 are considered active cases.

Sweden's fatality rate is extremely high. 22 of the country’s most prominent professors in infectious diseases and epidemiology published a commentary in Dagens Nyheter calling on their chief advisor to resign and appealing to the government to take a different course of action.



If you are genuinely interested in what is happening in Sweden, you should read Hans Bergstrom's article here.

Just as easy to do up a table with all the EU countries with per capita deaths that are much higher than Sweden's despite being in lockdown for over a month. What about a table with Spain, Italy, UK, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Monaco etc
All much higher deaths per capita. And there death rates per capita are not much different to Ireland despite us shutting down the country.

Bobeagleburger

How can herd immunity not be a riskier strategy when we don't have even know if previously having the virus prevents you from getting it again?

Bit cynical

Sweden's death numbers seem to be levelling off now; not dropping yet as with Italy, but will probably start dropping over the next few weeks.

However, even with level numbers, ventilator capacity may still run out because people tend to stay on them for long periods of time. If they reach capacity then deaths will again rise.

Att vara en hest

Ireland and many other countries have been on pretty hardcore lockdown for a long time now, yet they are still raking in large numbers of new cases and deaths every day - does the lockdown really work? Is it hurting more than helping?

Reposting chart from a few pages back:


Sweden peaked in terms of deaths/day on the 8th of April assuming that downward trend continues.


If in the end Sweden ends up with 300 or 400 more deaths than a comparable country, but where the other country went full lockdown and effectively infringed on its citizens' right to freedom of movement and also caused massive economic havoc... Which country really failed?

Yes, each death is more than just a number... But painting the scene for an economic recession and laying the groundwork for a police state does not exactly sound good in the long term either. If the numbers hold up and it's mostly people with several underlying conditions of old age which passes from the disease - at what cost can society protect these groups? It's a hard question but it must be asked.

Att vara en hest

Bit cynical wrote: »

Sweden's death numbers seem to be levelling off now; not dropping yet as with Italy, but will probably start dropping over the next few weeks.

They peaked 10 days ago.. Pages like worldometer and c19.se does not take in to account the lagg in deaths being reported by Swedish authorities.

Here's FHM's own dashboard which DOES, it assigns the death counts to when they actually occurred:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
(See chart for avlidna/dag = deaths/day)


Dashboard link was taken directly from FHM, here:
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/

And based on the raw data here:
https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/data

You will also find that a huge majority of deaths are 60+ with a clear majority being between 80-90. Sweden are not doing anywhere near as bad as some people in this thread seems to hope... I feel like people are just trying to justify the restrictions we're being put under here in Ireland.

I also want to add that Sweden are now ramping up their testing and will start tests of random groups for antibodies, I'd expect that number of confirmed cases will increase next week.

But paraphrashing Maddox in his latest video; dividing deaths by total known cases is a stupid way to get the death rate.. You're probably better off trying to calculate the total number of infected based on a death rate... And where can we find the best and most accurate death rates? Cruise ships where every single passenger have been tested, but even they are skewed due to the demographic of people who tend to go on these cruises.

So far there's literally nothing to say that Sweden's death rate would for any reason be any higher than any other country... That would only happen if the healthcare system got to the point where people are dying because there are not enough ICU spaces, this is not happening (yet... and hopefully won't).


I dislike the Swedish government, probably to the same extent as Biko himself... But I do trust FHM, they are the ones calling the shots at the moment.

MadYaker

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Given that the virus was in its infancy in the UK on the 20th March this is hardly surprising.

There will be a stark increase in deaths in the UK, give it a month to start throwing stats around. Very unusual to have ICU's at full capacity in mid April also.

This virus is a killer have no doubt, it is also not the Flu.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/coronavirus-took-hold-in-uk-earlier-than-thought-data-reveals

First death in the UK on 28th of february. It can be 4 to 8 weeks from initial infection to death. That means the virus was in the UK in mid January at the latest.

Del Griffith

STB. wrote: »

They are doing nothing.

The government have abdicated their public health responsibilities to the general public under the guise of self responsibility.

Don't just rock in here, without reading the thread please and its context and arguments for killing people in favour of saving bureaucrats and their cronies' money. I suggest you do a bit of reading. Nearly a quarter of their population are immigrants, many haven't a clue what is going on.

They are definitely not doing nothing - ban on gatherings over 50, 3rd level distance learning, all sorts of sick pay and cover etc.

Why pretend they're doing nothing?

coastwatch

Att vara en hest wrote: »

Ireland and many other countries have been on pretty hardcore lockdown for a long time now, yet they are still raking in large numbers of new cases and deaths every day - does the lockdown really work? Is it hurting more than helping?

Reposting chart from a few pages back:


Sweden peaked in terms of deaths/day on the 8th of April assuming that downward trend continues.


If in the end Sweden ends up with 300 or 400 more deaths than a comparable country, but where the other country went full lockdown and effectively infringed on its citizens' right to freedom of movement and also caused massive economic havoc... Which country really failed?

Yes, each death is more than just a number... But painting the scene for an economic recession and laying the groundwork for a police state does not exactly sound good in the long term either. If the numbers hold up and it's mostly people with several underlying conditions of old age which passes from the disease - at what cost can society protect these groups? It's a hard question but it must be asked.

It may take years before it becomes clearer which approach was better, but it seems to be a high risk "experiment" on the Swedish population.

I think when international travel eventually resumes after this, it will be easier between countries that have common covid 19 testing and controls in place, and that would put Sweden at a disadvantage.

Del Griffith

We're all going the Swedish route in the end btw, anyone that thinks we're staying locked down until there's a vaccine needs their head examined.

"Phased" relaxing of restrictions is herd immunity repackaged. Barring some miracle vaccine that skips all processes involving in clinical trials, we all get it in the end and then move on.

All going well we'll have the same restrictions Sweden do right now in 6 - 8 weeks.

yellowpens

I thought this was worth watching

Any thoughts?

dohouch

Eyes not a dog for the the detail but chechk this out, looks bad but me no statistician/fact checker
Graph shows Sweden’s coronavirus death toll rapidly increasing compared to other countries

coastwatch

Del Griffith wrote: »

We're all going the Swedish route in the end btw, anyone that thinks we're staying locked down until there's a vaccine needs their head examined.

"Phased" relaxing of restrictions is herd immunity repackaged. Barring some miracle vaccine that skips all processes involving in clinical trials, we all get it in the end and then move on.

All going well we'll have the same restrictions Sweden do right now in 6 - 8 weeks.

Maybe, but everywhere will be going for ongoing suppression, not heard immunity.
Head Immunity means,
20% of population require hospital treatment over next 6-12 months
5% of population require intensvie care treatment over next 6-12 months
1-2 % of population will die from covid 19 over next 6-12 months

robinbird

dohouch wrote: »

Eyes not a dog for the the detail but chechk this out, looks bad but me no statistician/fact checker

Here's a direct quote from the scare mongering article you have linked to.
And no I'm not a statistician either.



Sweden’s total fatalities per-million (118) is
........lower than the UK (182) and significantly lower than both Italy (349) and Spain (399).

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

For context, Niall, You better check the source and the context of that.

1,511 out of 2,061 cases died in Sweden. Another 10% of current cases are in critical condition.

We have 14,758 cases in total. 14,110 are considered active cases.

Sweden's fatality rate is extremely high. 22 of the country’s most prominent professors in infectious diseases and epidemiology published a commentary in Dagens Nyheter calling on their chief advisor to resign and appealing to the government to take a different course of action.



If you are genuinely interested in what is happening in Sweden, you should read Hans Bergstrom's article here.

Are you disputing the figures i posted.

robinbird

niallo27 wrote: »

Are you disputing the figures i posted.

Nobody's disputing your figures but you have been very selective in deliberately only choosing the countries that have lower per capita death rates than Sweden. You have selectively and disingenuously removed from your table all of the EU countries that have much higher figures that Sweden despite suspending civil liberties and destroying their economies.

PS. I intended this as a response to STB and his using selective and misleading data to support his argument

niallo27

robinbird wrote: »

Nobody's disputing your figures but you have been very selective in deliberately only choosing the countries that have lower per capita death rates than Sweden. You have selectively and disingenuously removed from your table all of the EU countries that have much higher figures that Sweden despite suspending civil liberties and destroying their economies.

Hang on I posted no tables, I just replied to the post saying that 73% of cases have died and that we are worse. I know these figures mean nothing in the long term

STB.

robinbird wrote: »

Here's a direct quote from the scare mongering article you have linked to.
And no I'm not a statistician either.
Sweden’s total fatalities per-million (118) is
........lower than the UK (182) and significantly lower than both Italy (349) and Spain (399).

Clearly not.

Wait until you see the unnecessary death figures in a months time in Sweden.

Plenty of people that could have been saved had they not made decisions over lives.

The UK adopted a similar stance and changed it quite late.

niallo27 wrote: »

Hang on I posted no tables, I just replied to the post saying that 73% of cases have died and that we are worse. I know these figures mean nothing in the long term

I am not going to explain to you the significance of 1500 people out of 2000 case closed again. You clearly are not capable of digesting it.

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

Clearly not.

Wait until you see the unnecessary death figures in a months time in Sweden.

Plenty of people that could have been saved had they not made decisions over lives.

The UK adopted a similar stance and changed it quite late.

Bollox, any models say it should be happening now. They are 7 weeks in. They are coping fine.

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

Clearly not.

Wait until you see the unnecessary death figures in a months time in Sweden.

Plenty of people that could have been saved had they not made decisions over lives.

The UK adopted a similar stance and changed it quite late.



I am not going to explain to you the significance of 1500 people out of 2000 case closed again. You clearly are not capable of digesting it.

88% of cases in this country have ended in death, answer me straight is this worse than sweden or not.

STB.

Att vara en hest wrote: »

Ireland and many other countries have been on pretty hardcore lockdown for a long time now, yet they are still raking in large numbers of new cases and deaths every day - does the lockdown really work? Is it hurting more than helping?

Reposting chart from a few pages back:

Sweden peaked in terms of deaths/day on the 8th of April assuming that downward trend continues.

If in the end Sweden ends up with 300 or 400 more deaths than a comparable country, but where the other country went full lockdown and effectively infringed on its citizens' right to freedom of movement and also caused massive economic havoc... Which country really failed?

NO THEY DID NOT. They are ONLY testing those with respiratory problems. THAT is the reason these trends mean nothing.

They have no idea of their contagion levels are, and have no interest in knowing how messed up their strategy has been. It is now so out of control, they never will get a grips the spread. When the percentages infected that are not mild exceed their ICU capacity, well they are in serious trouble. Herd Immunity is not a vaccine. Amazing how many people don't understand what that actually means. The UK were at this, then changed their minds, but it was too late and look at the scale of their problems.

And your nonsense about antibodies. Read up please.

robinbird

STB. wrote: »

Clearly not.

Wait until you see the unnecessary death figures in a months time in Sweden.

Plenty of people that could have been saved had they not made decisions over lives.

The UK adopted a similar stance and changed it quite late.



I am not going to explain to you the significance of 1500 people out of 2000 case closed again. You clearly are not capable of digesting it.

You are talking complete rubbish. When the figures contradict your argument you resort to " Wait for another month" The figures are available now and all the evidence points to Sweden being past its peak with deaths decreasing.

Att vara en hest

STB. wrote: »

NO THEY DID NOT. They are ONLY testing those with respiratory problems. THAT is the reason these trends mean nothing.

They have no idea of their contagion levels are, and have no interest in knowing how messed up their strategy has been. It is now so out of control, they never will get a grips the spread. When the percentages infected that are not mild exceed their ICU capacity, well they are in serious trouble. Herd Immunity is not a vaccine. Amazing how many people don't understand what that actually means. The UK were at this, then changed their minds, but it was too late and look at the scale of their problems.

And your nonsense about antibodies. Read up please.

I said deaths, please read my post again... Who cares if 10,000 or 60,000 people test positive if the number of deaths is the same?


People also talk about UK changing their stance on herd immunity as if UK is way ahead of Sweden.. Sweden and UK got their first cases around the same time, Sweden has held the same stance since the beginning and are now 2+ months in to it without healthcare collapse.

My "nonsense about antibodies"? I just said that the authorities have said that they will start testing random groups of the population for it.. What the presence of antibodies really mean in the long run, I know as little as everybody else.

Stop your fear mongering..

STB.

niallo27 wrote: »

88% of cases in this country have ended in death, answer me straight is this worse than sweden or not.

Given we have 14.7k cases how many deaths have we had ?



Maths and English clearly not your strong subject.

STB.

Att vara en hest wrote: »

I said deaths, please read my post again... Who cares if 10,000 or 60,000 people test positive if the number of deaths is the same?

Who cares ? Countries with limited ICU capacity who don't want them overwhelmed ALL at the ONE TIME with unnecessary triaging of people over certain ages or with underlying medical conditions. THAT'S WHO.

You clearly don't understand what control of a pandemic. Or you are one of these Herd Immunity lunatics who doesn't understand what that means either. Your nonsense about antibodies clearly underlines your limited knowledge.

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

Given we have 14.7k cases how many deaths have we had ?



Maths and English clearly not your strong subject.

You original post talked about closed cases. 88% of closed cases in Ireland ended in death, do you dispute this.

robinbird

STB. wrote: »

Who cares ? Countries with limited ICU capacity who don't want them overwhelmed ALL at the ONE TIME with unnecessary triaging of people over certain ages or with underlying medical conditions. THAT'S WHO.

You clearly don't understand what control of a pandemic. Or you are one of these Herd Immunity lunatics who doesn't understand what that means either. Your nonsense about antibodies clearly underlines your limited knowledge.

Sweden has plenty of excess ICU capacity it hasn't needed and to ability to provide more if necessary. In addition the figures can be very misleading. 42per cent of deaths in Sweden are in nursing homes. Many other countries including UK are deliberately not counting nursing home deaths in order to make their figures look much lower.

niallo27

robinbird wrote: »

Sweden has plenty of excess ICU capacity it hasn't needed and to ability to provide more if necessary. In addition the figures can be very misleading. 42per cent of deaths in Sweden are in nursing homes. Many other countries including UK are deliberately not counting nursing home deaths in order to make their figures look much lower.

Dont bother, he is a drunken mess at this stage.