Sweden avoiding lockdown

Ginger n Lemon

Seweryn wrote: »

That is true, 2019 was a particularly mild year in terms of deaths. If we ignore it then 2020 looks even more average against previous years, or well, just bang on in the middle...

You are an excel and facts wizard. Great posts.

Also, Ibrahimovic retired from international football in 2016. Its not relevant but you know at least its a little bit educational, in case you ever get on who wants to be a millionaire or somethin :pac: The Chase!

FintanMcluskey

biko wrote: »

In 2019, there were fewer than 89 000 deaths, which was the lowest number of deaths in a single year since 1977.

In 2018, when exceptionally many people died from the influenza, there were more than 92 000 deaths in Sweden.

So Covid is still on par with normal influenza.



https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/statistics-sweden-to-publish-preliminary-statistics-on-deaths-in-sweden/

Covid is on par with with influenza with minimal mitigation measures and no vaccine.

Food for thought there I think

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

It should. And here are the numbers:




It is an average year for Sweden in terms of deaths and you could find worse years in the past, i.e. 2015, 2016, 2017, etc. The last year brings the calculated five year average down a good bit though.

Where did you get the figure for Swedish deaths by Dec.31st being 92,494 ?
Statistica have Swedish deaths on Dec.18 at 91,773.

Seweryn

charlie14 wrote: »

Where did you get the figure for Swedish deaths by Dec.31st being 92,494 ?
Statistica have Swedish deaths on Dec.18 at 91,773.

They have an excel document published and updated daily, that is why my number is higher, as I have downloaded the data today. The figure of 91k may have beed as updated on 18th December.

Seweryn

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

You are an excel and facts wizard. Great posts.

Also, Ibrahimovic retired from international football in 2016. Its not relevant but you know at least its a little bit educational, in case you ever get on who wants to be a millionaire or somethin :pac: The Chase!

:pac:

In fairness there are going to be a few deaths still added as the last few days (weeks) of the year are looking low in their statistics, but obviously the overall numbers for comparison are not going to change much at all.

if you actually go to a professionally done analysis at euromomo

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score

Z-scores are used to standardize series and enable comparison mortality pattern between different populations or between different time periods. The standard deviation is the unit of measurement of the z-score. It allows comparison of observations from different normal distributions.

In general, Z-score = (x-mean of the population)/Standard deviation of the population, which could be approximated in our context by S-score = (number of deaths - baseline) / Standard deviation of the residuals (variation of the number of deaths around the baseline) on the part of the series used to fit the model, used as the standard unit.

Z-score are computed on the de-trended and de-seasonalized series, after a 2/3 powers transformation according to the method described in Farrington et al. 1996. This enables the computation of Z-scores for series that are originally Poisson distributed.

comparing Sweden and its neighbour Norway (which is easily done by eliminating all countries except those two)

and 2019 was a normal range year.

not showing the full late surge of deaths in Sweden towards the end of the year I would assume.

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

They have an excel document published and updated daily, that is why my number is higher, as I have downloaded the data today. The figure of 91k may have beed as updated on 18th December.

I would find that rather strange.
The difference between that Dec.18 figure and the one you have posted is 721 deaths.

Between Dec.18 and Dec.30 Sweden has reported 734 deaths from Covid-19 alone and their average daily deaths in a normal year are around 250 daily.



Not saying your figure is incorrect, but the figure for both those dates cannot be.

Seweryn

charlie14 wrote: »

I would find that rather strange.
The difference between that Dec.18 figure and the one you have posted is 721 deaths.

Between Dec.18 and Dec.30 Sweden has reported 734 deaths from Covid-19 alone and their average daily deaths in a normal year are around 250 daily.

Not saying your figure is incorrect, but the figure for both those dates cannot be.

Well, I have downloaded the official numbers from their statistic office. I guess these figures are still subject to change, and as I said before, the last days of 2020 look too low to call them final numbers.
Again, the changes are going to be rather cosmetic and are not going to make a major dent on the overall statistics. I would nearly bet my drink that if we ignore the 2019 figures (which is an unusually low year for deaths) and wait a few weeks for the figures to be updated for 2020, the overall increase in deaths for 2020 will get even closer to 0 %.

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

Well, I have downloaded the official numbers from their statistic office. I guess these figures are still subject to change, and as I said before, the last days of 2020 look too low to call them final numbers.
Again, the changes are going to be rather cosmetic and are not going to make a major dent on the overall statistics.

Unless Statista`s figure for Dec,18 of 91,773 are fair bit off, then for a country that has 250 daily deaths in a normal year they would.


Those 13 days regardless, of Covid-19, could add a further 3,250 deaths to bring the total to over 95,000.

Seweryn

charlie14 wrote: »

Unless Statista`s figure for Dec,18 of 91,773 are fair bit off, then for a country that has 250 daily deaths in a normal year they would.


Those 13 days regardless, of Covid-19, could add a further 3,250 deaths to bring the total to over 95,000.

Well, I will have a look at the numbers in a few weeks to check the final figures. But even with 95k deaths, the 2020 is still lower in deaths per million than say 2015. Or simply saying it is a rather average year.

biko

biko wrote: »

Social Democrat Dan Eliasson, head of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency that deals with the pandemic, flew to the Canary Islands for Christmas.

This guy was forced to resign today over his travels.

But, he will instead get employment directly by the government and keep his salary of 192.000 euro/year.
That's how you "social democrat" folks!

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

Well, I will have a look at the numbers in a few weeks to check the final figures. But even with 95k deaths, the 2020 is still lower in deaths per million than say 2015. Or simply saying it is a rather average year.

On that mention of deaths per million, that figure is relative to the population.
Is that based on the population on 1st.Jan or is it the population on 31st. Dec do you know ?

Seweryn

charlie14 wrote: »

On that mention of deaths per million, that figure is relative to the population.
Is that based on the population on 1st.Jan or is it the population on 31st. Dec do you know ?

Good question. Because I wasn't sure about it, I have taken the official population numbers for years 2015 - 2019 and for 2020 I estimated the figure using the previous year % growth (which is quite stable over the years at about 1.01 %) to make my calculations as accurate as possible and equal for all years.

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

Good question. Because I wasn't sure about it, I have taken the official population numbers for years 2015 - 2019 and for 2020 I estimated the figure using the previous year % growth (which is quite stable over the years at about 1.01 %) to make my calculations as accurate as possible and equal for all years.

Thanks for that. Only reason I asked is because it can skew the deaths per million
I do believe though that equating overall deaths in such a manner can disguise the effects of a particular disease. Especially one that is the cause of a large numbers of deaths.

According to Society Demographics in Sweden for 2019, the top three causes of deaths were.
Diseases of the circulatory system 28,195, Neoplasms (cancers) 23,453, and diseases of the respiratory system 6,154.
Covid-19 is now the third largest cause of death in Sweden by a factor of almost 50% more than last year`s, and that is for just over 9 months rather than a full year.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

Thanks for that. Only reason I asked is because it can skew the deaths per million
I do believe though that equating overall deaths in such a manner can disguise the effects of a particular disease. Especially one that is the cause of a large numbers of deaths.

According to Society Demographics in Sweden for 2019, the top three causes of deaths were.
Diseases of the circulatory system 28,195, Neoplasms (cancers) 23,453, and diseases of the respiratory system 6,154.
Covid-19 is now the third largest cause of death in Sweden by a factor of almost 50% more than last year`s, and that is for just over 9 months rather than a full year.

The fact the overall death rate is normal would suggest many Covid deaths were not preventable thus meaning end of life patients deaths were attributed to Covid as opposed to the diseases you listed

FintanMcluskey

glasso wrote: »

well that's debatable, particularly when compared to the most relevant comparators i.e. the neighbouring Scandinavian countries (e.g. Sweden has over ten times the Covid deaths per million population that Norway has) who have had their army personnel at the borders to stop people going from there into and out of Sweden

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-cases-idUKKBN27Q1U5

Possible reasons why it was not worse than it was/is in Sweden

-> more people in Sweden live alone than other countries (most transmission still happens in the home)

-> related to this, less inter-generational living so less chance to pass Covid on to people more likely to die

-> Swedish culture is quite trusting of the government and follows the advice - the guidelines on social distancing and working from home, group sizes were largely followed. Followed more than would have been done in many other countries / cultures.

I didn’t respond to this promptly which I apologise.

Isn’t Sweden an outlier in the Scandinavian countries in terms of immigration though?

Covid for whatever reason seems to discriminate against ethnic minorities.

The NHS doctors who died in the pandemic were mostly immigrants.

“In the UK, early studies indicate that Black, Asian and minority ethnic health workers appear to be significantly over-represented in the total number of COVID-19 related health worker deaths, with some reports showing that more than 60% of health workers who died identified as BAME. “

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The fact the overall death rate is normal would suggest many Covid deaths were not preventable thus meaning end of life patients deaths were attributed to Covid as opposed to the diseases you listed

On the figures you posted Fintan for Dec.18th of 91,773, if deaths in Sweden were just the normal daily death rate for the rest of the year, then that figure would exceed 95,000.

Hardly normal, and that figure would only include Covid-19 deaths for just over 9 months rather than 12.
I have mentioned before that I believe the real figure on excess deaths in relation to Covid-19 should be measured on a 12 month basis.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I didn’t respond to this promptly which I apologise.

Isn’t Sweden an outlier in the Scandinavian countries in terms of immigration though?

Covid for whatever reason seems to discriminate against ethnic minorities.

The NHS doctors who died in the pandemic were mostly immigrants.

“In the UK, early studies indicate that Black, Asian and minority ethnic health workers appear to be significantly over-represented in the total number of COVID-19 related health worker deaths, with some reports showing that more than 60% of health workers who died identified as BAME. “

That indeed does appear to be the case Fintan, but shouldn`t a government have the same responsibility to protect all the state`s citizens regardless of their ethnicity ?

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

That indeed does appear to be the case Fintan, but shouldn`t a government have the same responsibility to protect all the state`s citizens regardless of their ethnicity ?

Oh they should.

I was responding to a post about Sweden’s culture and similarities or lack thereof to other Scandinavian countries.

I wasn’t suggesting anything sinister Charlie

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Oh they should.

I was responding to a post about Sweden’s culture and similarities or lack thereof to other Scandinavian countries.

I wasn’t suggesting anything sinister Charlie

TBH I would have been very surprised if you were.
From what I have seen of your posts that would not be your style Fintan

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The fact the overall death rate is normal would suggest many Covid deaths were not preventable thus meaning end of life patients deaths were attributed to Covid as opposed to the diseases you listed

We really do not know what the overall death rate is. If your figure for Dec.18th is correct, then it does not look as if it will be a normal year unless there are a lot less than the normal daily deaths of 250 for the remaining 13 days.

I would doubt that. Sweden look to be very specific when it comes to attributing deaths due to Covid-19.
With Covid-19 deaths for just over 9 months being almost 50% greater than the third largest cause of death for 2019, (diseases of the respiratory system), then it is highly unlikely those deaths could be attributed to either of the other two causes of death greater than the respiratory system. The circulatory system or neoplasms.

biko

Looking at Sweden's neighbour Denmark.
Perhaps what Sweden could have been.

Lowest number of deaths in its population for six years

An unusually mild influenza season and relatively limited impact of the Covid-19 pandemic mean that Denmark has registered the lowest number of deaths in its population for six years.

The analyses have shown that the first 30 weeks of 2020 saw the lowest number of deaths of any year since 2015. Additionally, the figure is under the death rate which had been forecast for 2020.

“When we have so few deaths, that is because we were quick to get the epidemic under control and in a vice-grip at the start of March,” Lone Simonsen, professor of epidemiology at Roskilde University, told Politiken.

“We are in the waiting position until a vaccine or another game changer arrives. But if we’d let the epidemic rip, we’d have seen a lot more deaths,” she said.

https://www.thelocal.dk/20201012/denmark-has-lowest-deaths-in-population-for-six-years-despite-coronavirus

FintanMcluskey

biko wrote: »

Looking at Sweden's neighbour Denmark.
Perhaps what Sweden could have been.

Lowest number of deaths in its population for six years

https://www.thelocal.dk/20201012/denmark-has-lowest-deaths-in-population-for-six-years-despite-coronavirus

So this was never about Covid ?

It was about reducing overall death rate?

biko

Not sure what you're asking but reducing deaths is pretty much what all countries have been doing.
Denmark's strategy appears to have been so good they even had a less-than-usual death number for 2020.

I'll see if Norway and Finland numbers are available.


Edit, Norway is usually 41K, give or take. They update in March for yearly stats https://www.ssb.no/en/dode

Vieira82

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So this was never about Covid ?

It was about reducing overall death rate?

huh... yes? obviously if you let a virus run rampant that will lead to more deaths, clog hospitals meaning regular healthcare has to be suspended and eventually even more deaths? So what's... there to question about? xD

and you got a perfect example in the US right now with over 3k deaths daily... also Portugal has reported 2020 is the year with more deaths in the country since the Spanish Flu...

So I really don't know where's the doubt that this is about keeping people alive during a pandemic or how you can even think of asking that xD

Seweryn

charlie14 wrote: »

According to Society Demographics in Sweden for 2019, the top three causes of deaths were.
Diseases of the circulatory system 28,195, Neoplasms (cancers) 23,453, and diseases of the respiratory system 6,154.
Covid-19 is now the third largest cause of death in Sweden by a factor of almost 50% more than last year`s, and that is for just over 9 months rather than a full year.

I am not convinced that their claims are correct or the way they report deaths. This may not be the most scientific way to check it, but if we compare all the non cov. deaths between 2020 and other years, then the numbers are way off (see below). It just shows that the cov. deaths are overclaimed.

And before I compared the numbers I have allowed 1,000 extra deaths for 2020 only, as there may still be unclaimed deaths at the end of the year.

TonyMaloney

Today's update shows Sweden were up to 110 deaths per day on December 17th.

Looking highly likely that the death toll from this wave will exceed the first

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

I am not convinced that their claims are correct or the way they report deaths. This may not be the most scientific way to check it, but if we compare all the non cov. deaths between 2020 and other years, then the numbers are way off (see below). It just shows that the cov. deaths are overclaimed.

And before I compared the numbers I have allowed 1,000 extra deaths for 2020 only, as there may still be unclaimed deaths at the end of the year.

I would agree on Sweden`s claims or the way they report deaths. They appear to have very strict criteria as too what qualifies as a Covid-19 death which could tend to the belief that they may be under reporting, but there is no way of knowing for sure.


There is one anomaly when it comes to deaths due to Covid-19. Not just for Sweden but for practically every country. They are not comparable on a year by year basis of Jan.1st - Dec.31st.

Sweden for example didn`t have it`s first Covid-19 death until mid March and up until then had week on week lower average weekly deaths than the normal weekly average.

charlie14

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Today's update shows Sweden were up to 110 deaths per day on December 17th.

Looking highly likely that the death toll from this wave will exceed the first

Originally posted as 91 deaths for December 17th.
The Local reporting a further 277 deaths and 12,536 new cases for the for the 5th. and 6th. combined.

FintanMcluskey

Vieira82 wrote: »

and you got a perfect example in the US right now with over 3k deaths daily... also Portugal has reported 2020 is the year with more deaths in the country since the Spanish Flu...

Have you a link to the Portugal data?