Sweden avoiding lockdown

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

Here you go.
January 3rd. Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 of population.
Sweden 87.83. Ireland 46.06.

The other three Nordic countries. Finland 10.24. Denmark 23.66. Norway 8.43.

Adjusted for population over 65

Sweden - 463 per 100,000
Ireland - 360 per 100,000

The death rate must be calculated within the age range where the deaths occur.

Bit cynical

Drumpot wrote: »

I am curious as to what effect you feel Sweden's exports had on the spread of the virus ? I appreciate it is a difference seperating them from Norway but to what degree to you feel this is relevant in the topic of COVID ? (perhaps from a reliance on Europe POV ?).

Obviously this is all going to be researched for years to come but I think it is accepted that trade links are very important. Northern Italy, which we might remember was quite badly affected early on, has strong clothing industry links with China. Parts of Spain are also linked with Italy and both regions had quite bad outbreaks.

A commodity exporter like Norway would not have these problems as people are not so much involved in the buying and selling and negotiating of thousands of different products and services internationally. They can seal off the country and still export oil. In addition they have a sovereign wealth fund. They are not servicing debt and can afford not to have things like tourism operating for a period of time.

In all, not really a valid comparison.

charlie14

j@utis wrote: »

I couldn't care less for covid19 deaths. I mean, excess deaths is the only interesting one really.

For any country we will have to wait until the final year totals to see what, if any excess deaths, there will be. Even at that we will not know the true effect of Covid-19 deaths as the figure will only include Covid-19 deaths for a little over 9 months rather than a full year.

Best I can tell you for now is that for the first half of 2020, (where for the first 12 weeks Sweden had week on week lower than the average weekly deaths) by end of June after just three and a half months of Covid-19 deaths,the total was 51,405. A 15% increase for the corresponding period in 2019.

The first half of 2020 saw Sweden record it`s highest`s first half ofreyear deaths at 51,431 since 1869 when due to famine 55,431 people died.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Adjusted for population over 65

Sweden - 463 per 100,000
Ireland - 360 per 100,000

The death rate must be calculated within the age range where the deaths occur.

How many times do I have to do this with you Fintan ?
You know full well by now that is totally disingenuous posting.



I have repeatedly shown you that when compared to Sweden`s Nordic neighbours on the same principle, (whose deaths per 100,000 I also included in my post), even if all their deaths were for those over 65, your theory falls flat on it`s face.
It`s just tiresome bull manure at this stage.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

How many times do I have to do this with you Fintan ?
You know full well by now that is totally disingenuous posting.



I have repeatedly shown you that when compared to Sweden`s Nordic neighbours on the same principle, (whose deaths per 100,000 I also included in my post), even if all their deaths were for those over 65, your theory falls flat on it`s face.
It`s just tiresome bull manure at this stage.

That a bit remedial Charlie.

Sweden have vast differences with there Nordic neighbours as was posted previously.

It’s stats based on demographics Charlie.

Do we quantify infant mortality rate across the whole population?

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

That a bit remedial Charlie.

Sweden have vast differences with there Nordic neighbours as was posted previously.

It’s stats based on demographics Charlie.

Do we quantify infant mortality rate across the whole population?

.
The only demographics in your post was a comparison of Sweden and Ireland`s Civid-19 deaths of those aged 65 and over.

I have repeatedly shown you over various threads just how much an outlier that is when compared to Sweden and it`s three Nordic neighbours. Even to the extent that if all three`s total Covid-19 death were in the 65 and over age group, how flat it falls.
Give it up Fintan, it`s just not a flier.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

.
The only demographics in your post was a comparison of Sweden and Ireland`s Civid-19 deaths of those aged 65 and over.

I have repeatedly shown you over various threads just how much an outlier that is when compared to Sweden and it`s three Nordic neighbours. Even to the extent that if all three`s total Covid-19 death were in the 65 and over age group, how flat it falls.
Give it up Fintan, it`s just not a flier.

It’s been explained Charlie, Sweden has vast cultural differences to its Nordic Neighbours for a variety of reason’s.

Sweden is on track with the rest of Europe

Not sure what Ireland’s excuse is, it is an island after all

Now in your OP you compared Ireland and Sweden to prove a point, now you say it’s not accurate to do so

Which is it?

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

For any country we will have to wait until the final year totals to see what, if any excess deaths, there will be. Even at that we will not know the true effect of Covid-19 deaths as the figure will only include Covid-19 deaths for a little over 9 months rather than a full year.

Best I can tell you for now is that for the first half of 2020, (where for the first 12 weeks Sweden had week on week lower than the average weekly deaths) by end of June after just three and a half months of Covid-19 deaths,the total was 51,405. A 15% increase for the corresponding period in 2019.

The first half of 2020 saw Sweden record it`s highest`s first half ofreyear deaths at 51,431 since 1869 when due to famine 55,431 people died.

It is unsurprising that most European countries will have record numbers of deaths for 2020.
Combine the worst pandemic in a century with record high populations and people living longer than ever at a time of a pandemic that primarily affects the elderly and you get record highs.
Bergamo recorded an 850% excess for the month of April. Ireland recorded an excess of 40% for the month of April and will have a similar excess for January 2021. Most countries are going to have a record high year for 2020 and probably 2021 too.
The European excess up to December was 400,000 and for full year its likely to be 500,000. Given that Swedens excess will be about 5000, or 1% of the total you have to ask where the other 99% excess is. And Swedens population is less than 1% of the European population!

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

How many times do I have to do this with you Fintan ?
You know full well by now that is totally disingenuous posting.



I have repeatedly shown you that when compared to Sweden`s Nordic neighbours on the same principle, (whose deaths per 100,000 I also included in my post), even if all their deaths were for those over 65, your theory falls flat on it`s face.
It`s just tiresome bull manure at this stage.

There's a large number of differences between Sweden and Norway that are very relevant to covid 19. To say the two countries are similar is as lazy as saying the Irish and British are the same.

Sweden is one of the most open countries in Europe. When everyone else was turning away Syrian refugees, the Swedes accepted tens of thousands. This commitment to an open society did not help with the covid fight, but overall I'd rather be a Swede than a Norwegian.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

.
The only demographics in your post was a comparison of Sweden and Ireland`s Civid-19 deaths of those aged 65 and over.

I have repeatedly shown you over various threads just how much an outlier that is when compared to Sweden and it`s three Nordic neighbours. Even to the extent that if all three`s total Covid-19 death were in the 65 and over age group, how flat it falls.
Give it up Fintan, it`s just not a flier.

Sweden has an elderly population of 20%. Norways is 17%.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It’s been explained Charlie, Sweden has vast cultural differences to its Nordic Neighbours for a variety of reason’s.

Sweden is on track with the rest of Europe

Not sure what Ireland’s excuse is, it is an island after all

Now in your OP you compared Ireland and Sweden to prove a point, now you say it’s not accurate to do so

Which is it?

Get of the hobby horse your trying to use to move the goal posts Fintan.

Your post was in relation to over 65 deaths due to Covid-19 comparing Ireland to Sweden. Nothing to do with cultural differences.
Even though totally irrelevant in the context, it is comical to suggest that these supposedly vast cultural differences that Sweden has with it`s Nordic neighbours it doesn`t have them in relation to Ireland.

Stop the codology. I have shown you over and over again that your theory on over 65 deaths due to Covid-19 when compared to all the countries bordering Sweden is complete rubbish

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Sweden has an elderly population of 20%. Norways is 17%.

Sweden has 20% of it`s population over 65. Finland 22%, Denmark 20% , and Finland 17%.

Using the same methodology that was used comparing Ireland to Sweden allowing for population difference, I have shown numerous time here that you are aware off, and on other threads that Fintan is well aware off, that when compared to the other three Nordic countries the theory is rubbish.

And that was making the comparison to Sweden`s actual Covid-19 deaths of over 65s using all deaths of the other three as over 65.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

It is unsurprising that most European countries will have record numbers of deaths for 2020.
Combine the worst pandemic in a century with record high populations and people living longer than ever at a time of a pandemic that primarily affects the elderly and you get record highs.
Bergamo recorded an 850% excess for the month of April. Ireland recorded an excess of 40% for the month of April and will have a similar excess for January 2021. Most countries are going to have a record high year for 2020 and probably 2021 too.
The European excess up to December was 400,000 and for full year its likely to be 500,000. Given that Swedens excess will be about 5000, or 1% of the total you have to ask where the other 99% excess is. And Swedens population is less than 1% of the European population!

Ar you attempting to imply my post is not factually correct ?

I would agree that Sweden`s excess deaths will possibly be around 5,000. Even though it will only includes Covid-19 deaths for just over 9 months rather than a year. As well it being a year where for the first 12 weeks Sweden`s deaths were weekly below the average.
I said the same possible number 6 months ago, but many here said it would be nowhere near that. One was even willing to bet Sweden`s deaths would be lower than last year.

If it is around 5,000 only including those 9 month odd Covid-19 deaths, it will still be an excess of 5% more than the previous 10 year average.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden has 20% of it`s population over 65. Finland 22%, Denmark 20% , and Finland 17%.

Using the same methodology that was used comparing Ireland to Sweden allowing for population difference, I have shown numerous time here that you are aware off, and on other threads that Fintan is well aware off, that when compared to the other three Nordic countries the theory is rubbish.

And that was making the comparison to Sweden`s actual Covid-19 deaths of over 65s using all deaths of the other three as over 65.

Why do you find it so hard to understand that age profile is just ONE of the differences. There are a large number of other differences which when combined add up to significant differences. Its you that is only focusing on one difference not everyone else.

Like I said you've succumbed to lazy analysis. Next you'll be telling us Canada and the US are the same!

tobefrank321

Here is the Finnish-Russia border.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finland–Russia_border
Its one of the tightest controlled borders in the world.
Finlands borders with Norway and Sweden are in the ARCTIC CIRCLE.

Comparing Finland to Sweden isn't logical. They aren't even geographically well connected!

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Ar you attempting to imply my post is not factually correct ?

I would agree that Sweden`s excess deaths will possibly be around 5,000. Even though it will only includes Covid-19 deaths for just over 9 months rather than a year. As well it being a year where for the first 12 weeks Sweden`s deaths were weekly below the average.
I said the same possible number 6 months ago, but many here said it would be nowhere near that. One was even willing to bet Sweden`s deaths would be lower than last year.

If it is around 5,000 only including those 9 month odd Covid-19 deaths, it will still be an excess of 5% more than the previous 10 year average.

Ah yes completely ignore my point about 500,000 excess deaths in Europe.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden has 20% of it`s population over 65. Finland 22%, Denmark 20% , and Finland 17%.

Using the same methodology that was used comparing Ireland to Sweden allowing for population difference, I have shown numerous time here that you are aware off, and on other threads that Fintan is well aware off, that when compared to the other three Nordic countries the theory is rubbish.

And that was making the comparison to Sweden`s actual Covid-19 deaths of over 65s using all deaths of the other three as over 65.

Charlie what point are you trying to make here?

We all accept Norway and Denmark are well ahead of the rest of the EU for very unique reasons.

But exactly what are you trying to articulate?

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Why do you find it so hard to understand that age profile is just ONE of the differences. There are a large number of other differences which when combined add up to significant differences. Its you that is only focusing on one difference not everyone else.

Like I said you've succumbed to lazy analysis. Next you'll be telling us Canada and the US are the same!

How are you finding it so difficult to understand that the poster I was answering and the subsequent post of mine you replied to was in relation to that poster focusing on one outlier difference comparing Covid-19 deaths of those 65 and over in Ireland v Sweden.

Especially when you posted that Norway had only 17% in comparison to Sweden`s 20% attempting to show I was wrong.


Looks more like you lazily attempting to change the narrative when shown you were wrong.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Charlie what point are you trying to make here?

We all accept Norway and Denmark are well ahead of the rest of the EU for very unique reasons.

But exactly what are you trying to articulate?

Will you ever grow up Fintan.
You have been attempting repeatedly to use Sweden`s percentage of those 65 and over as some kind of excuse for their Covid-19 deaths when it has been repeatedly shown to you as being rubbish.

tobefrank321

Uk posted 1325 deaths today after months of lockdown and tiers. If that's not proof lockdowns don't work I don't know what is? Germany seem on course to match those numbers in the next few weeks.

NZ, Australia, Finland and Norways lockdowns only worked because they are remote countries with tight border controls.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

How are you finding it so difficult to understand that the poster I was answering and the subsequent post of mine you replied to was in relation to that poster focusing on one outlier difference comparing Covid-19 deaths of those 65 and over in Ireland v Sweden.

Especially when you posted that Norway had only 17% in comparison to Sweden`s 20% attempting to show I was wrong.


Looks more like you lazily attempting to change the narrative when shown you were wrong.

You've said the age profile in scandinavia is the same for all countries, thats simply not true.

You're basing arguments on untruths.

Accept there is significant ( almost 20%) more elderly in Sweden than Norway and we can move on.

As for Ireland v Sweden the difference is even more substantial. In summary the more elderly you have the more deaths you'll have.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

Will you ever grow up Fintan.
You have been attempting repeatedly to use Sweden`s percentage of those 65 and over as some kind of excuse for their Covid-19 deaths when it has been repeatedly shown to you as being rubbish.

It’s not rubbish Charlie

It’s where the deaths occur.

Covid is most discriminatory towards those over 65

It’s more accurate to compare countries using that metric

Wolf359f

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Uk posted 1325 deaths today after months of lockdown and tiers. If that's not proof lockdowns don't work I don't know what is? Germany seem on course to match those numbers in the next few weeks.

NZ, Australia, Finland and Norways lockdowns only worked because they are remote countries with tight border controls.

Do you really believe if the UK had no lockdown's their Covid deaths would be less? and likewise, if Sweden locked down, they would have more Covid deaths?
Because that's what you're implying.

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

Do you really believe if the UK had no lockdown's their Covid deaths would be less? and likewise, if Sweden locked down, they would have more Covid deaths?
Because that's what you're implying.

I’ve not seen that been implied.

What I have seen been implied is that lockdowns don’t save vulnerable lives.

And I agree

Do you have evidence otherwise

CharlieHaghy

China are still under 5,000 deaths. Sweden’s approach is an embarrassment

FintanMcluskey

CharlieHaghy wrote: »

China are still under 5,000 deaths. Sweden’s approach is an embarrassment

Sweden should just give up now!

CharlieHaghy

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Sweden should just give up now!

They need to make it happening.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It’s not rubbish Charlie

It’s where the deaths occur.

Covid is most discriminatory towards those over 65

It’s more accurate to compare countries using that metric

Where have I or anyone said Covid-19 was not most discriminatory to those over 65 ?
What you have been doing repeatedly is using a comparison between Ireland and Sweden as an explanation for Swedish deaths.
Why not use the same metric to compare Sweden and it`s three Nordic neighbours and post those ?

Because of this belief you have that culturally Ireland has more in common with Sweden than any of it`s Nordic neighbours.:rolleyes:

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You've said the age profile in scandinavia is the same for all countries, thats simply not true.

You're basing arguments on untruths.

Accept there is significant ( almost 20%) more elderly in Sweden than Norway and we can move on.

As for Ireland v Sweden the difference is even more substantial. In summary the more elderly you have the more deaths you'll have.

Will you ever stop the nonsense.
The discussion was in relation to Covid-19 deaths of those 65 and over.
I did not say the profile of that age group was the same in all countries in Scandinavia. That is a blatant lie.

IN FACT I POSTED THE PERCENTAGE OF THOSE IN THAT AGE GROUP FOR ALL FOUR COUNTRIES IN A REPLY TO YOU.


I have previously on at least two threads posted in reply to this rubbish from Fintan showing clearly when taking that percentage and each country`s populations into account, that when Sweden`s over 65 deaths are compared to any off the other three Nordic countries, with all three`s total deaths included as being over 65, Sweden`s deaths are many multiples of any of the other three.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

Will you ever stop the nonsense.
The discussion was in relation to Covid-19 deaths of those 65 and over.
I did not say the profile of that age group was the same in all countries in Scandinavia. That is a blatant lie.

IN FACT I POSTED THE PERCENTAGE OF THOSE IN THAT AGE GROUP FOR ALL FOUR COUNTRIES IN A REPLY TO YOU.


I have previously on at least two threads posted in reply to this rubbish from Fintan showing clearly when taking that percentage and each country`s populations into account, that when Sweden`s over 65 deaths are compared to any off the other three Nordic countries, with all three`s total deaths included as being over 65, Sweden`s deaths are many multiples of any of the other three.

I understand your point comparing Sweden to its geographical neighbours.

However when we compare Sweden to its most similar societal European neighbours, Sweden has performed rather well.

In fact, considering it’s lack of suppression on citizens and the associated risks, it’s performed better than the rest of Europe