Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14 · 10-01-2021 5:57pm

99nsr125 wrote: »

Oh ffs, I just don't have the time

CFR is CASE Fatality Rate

Sounds more that you do not have a clue rather than time.
But then perhaps I am misjudging you.
You can always clear that up by telling me how you believe the figures for both CFR and IFR are calculated..

charlie14 · 10-01-2021 6:11pm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The value of a robust democracy?

In a democracy the dangers of too much power being in the hands of a single authority ?

FintanMcluskey · 10-01-2021 6:17pm

charlie14 wrote: »

In a democracy the dangers of too much power being in the hands of a single authority ?

Like NPHET?

Tork · 10-01-2021 6:24pm

Tegnell was the anti-Houlihan, wasn't he?

charlie14 · 10-01-2021 8:01pm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Like NPHET?

The complete opposite Fintan.

charlie14 · 10-01-2021 8:11pm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I understand your point comparing Sweden to its geographical neighbours.

However when we compare Sweden to its most similar societal European neighbours, Sweden has performed rather well.

In fact, considering it’s lack of suppression on citizens and the associated risks, it’s performed better than the rest of Europe

If you do Fintan, then do us both a favour.
Next time you are tempted to compare deaths in 65s and over between Ireland and Sweden include it`s geographical neighbours as well. If you feel like it throw in every country in Europe as well.

charlie14 · 10-01-2021 8:16pm

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Where are the lockdown measures here? The shops, gyms and other places are allowed remain open and allowed trade.

Its clear you don't know what a lockdown is. Lockdown includes CLOSURE of non essential retail, gyms, cinemas, pubs, restaurants, libraries, museums, etc.

If every single citizen in Sweden was chained to a post that kept them two meters apart I doubt you would even look on that as lockdown.

sheepysheep · 10-01-2021 9:53pm

charlie14 wrote: »

A very sweeping statement.

Perhaps rather than generalisations, you would care to point out what exactly these lies, conjectures, falsehoods etc are ?

This is not hard to do. these are copy and pastes of such posts

1: Example of an outright lie.

1: Of course it was.Rinderpest, a disease in ruminants has also been eradicated by means of vaccination.Diseases on the verge of eradication through vaccination include, polio, malaria, Guinea worn disease and yams.So what point are you making ?

Here you just invent both a vaccination for Malaria and the notion that it is near eradication to suit your narrative. Feel free to quote whatever source you derived this information from if you did not if fact make it up.

2: Example of misinformation

2:From Eurostat 2016.Sweden had over 50% single household occupancy. Ireland 22%.When you consider transmissions, especially those related to family clusters, then such a high level of single occupancy households has to be an advantage,

1.8 of 10.3 million Swedish citizens live alone. A rate of 17%. This 1.8 million, or 17% live in 1.8 million of the 4.7 million housing stock. A rate of 38%. You deliberately misconstrue this 38% figure to be both 50% and imply that 50% of people live alone. By way of contrast, approximately 8-10% of Irish people live alone. So, around 83% of Swedish people live in family clusters as compared to around 90% in Ireland. Classic trolling misinformation.

3: Example of conspiracy theory.

Each and every time you imply the Swedes are massaging the reporting of numbers and that there is collusion between government and the medial profession to facilitate this.

3: Example of dissembling.

When you feign concern for the elderly population of Sweden. Yet when you were asked to commentate the effects of lockdown and the reduction in foreign aid to the third world all you can manage is a political diatribe against the Tories. For someone who presents himself as left -wing you may have missed the chapter on the international brotherhood of man and solidarity with your fellow citizens of the world.

Ginger n Lemon · 10-01-2021 10:10pm

Above post is hands down the best 1 this thread has produced.

at 0:12 you have the OP and sheepysheep

Spanishpoint · 10-01-2021 11:43pm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The value of a robust democracy?

I think Julian Assange does not agree with you

greyday · 11-01-2021 12:16pm

sheepysheep wrote: »

This is not hard to do. these are copy and pastes of such posts

1: Example of an outright lie.

1: Of course it was.Rinderpest, a disease in ruminants has also been eradicated by means of vaccination.Diseases on the verge of eradication through vaccination include, polio, malaria, Guinea worn disease and yams.So what point are you making ?

Here you just invent both a vaccination for Malaria and the notion that it is near eradication to suit your narrative. Feel free to quote whatever source you derived this information from if you did not if fact make it up.

2: Example of misinformation

2:From Eurostat 2016.Sweden had over 50% single household occupancy. Ireland 22%.When you consider transmissions, especially those related to family clusters, then such a high level of single occupancy households has to be an advantage,

1.8 of 10.3 million Swedish citizens live alone. A rate of 17%. This 1.8 million, or 17% live in 1.8 million of the 4.7 million housing stock. A rate of 38%. You deliberately misconstrue this 38% figure to be both 50% and imply that 50% of people live alone. By way of contrast, approximately 8-10% of Irish people live alone. So, around 83% of Swedish people live in family clusters as compared to around 90% in Ireland. Classic trolling misinformation.

3: Example of conspiracy theory.

Each and every time you imply the Swedes are massaging the reporting of numbers and that there is collusion between government and the medial profession to facilitate this.

3: Example of dissembling.

When you feign concern for the elderly population of Sweden. Yet when you were asked to commentate the effects of lockdown and the reduction in foreign aid to the third world all you can manage is a political diatribe against the Tories. For someone who presents himself as left -wing you may have missed the chapter on the international brotherhood of man and solidarity with your fellow citizens of the world.

Eurostat would be considered a reputable source of information, how you can say he is lying by providing Eurostat figures is what trump would call fake news

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170905-1

Maybe you are implying statista is more reputable than Eurostat?

Lux23 · 11-01-2021 1:10pm

Surely Sweden changing their laws to impose a stricter lockdown is evidence that their approach hasn't really worked; I can't understand why people are still arguing about this.

11-01-2021 2:16pm

Sweden had very limited legal powers to do anything heretofore

A new law has just passed to bring in more measures

They are still held back by Sweden's constitution, which does not give ministers the power to impose a state of emergency, allowing a nationwide lockdown.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-swedens-new-covid-lockdown-law-takes-effect/a-56185101

even now they just can't close places like pubs, gyms etc without violations being cited.

Sweden's new emergency lockdown law went into effect on Sunday, granting the government the power to impose coronavirus-related curbs for the first time.

The measure comes nearly a year after the Nordic country ruled out the same strict public health measures that were implemented throughout the rest of Europe.

Until now, the Swedish government has relied mostly on the public following official health recommendations voluntarily.

But lawmakers passed the new pandemic law on Friday, allowing the government to "introduce special restrictions for both certain activities and places," according to a statement on the parliament's website.

The new law is expected to be used imminently.

"We see a great risk that we will be in a difficult situation for some time ahead,” Prime Minister Stefan Lofven told Swedish network SVT ahead of the law's passage. "And we will be using it in the near future."

The law permits the government to restrict the number of people in shops, businesses and public places including theaters and swimming pools. Authorities can also fine individuals for flouting coronavirus rules as well as order businesses to close in the case of violations.

"We will see if we can do more in public transport, but it could also be about gyms, sports facilities, events and businesses that operate premises for parties," Lofven said of the law’s application.

charlie14 · 11-01-2021 2:33pm

sheepysheep wrote: »

This is not hard to do. these are copy and pastes of such posts

1: Example of an outright lie.

1: Of course it was.Rinderpest, a disease in ruminants has also been eradicated by means of vaccination.Diseases on the verge of eradication through vaccination include, polio, malaria, Guinea worn disease and yams.So what point are you making ?

Here you just invent both a vaccination for Malaria and the notion that it is near eradication to suit your narrative. Feel free to quote whatever source you derived this information from if you did not if fact make it up.

2: Example of misinformation

2:From Eurostat 2016.Sweden had over 50% single household occupancy. Ireland 22%.When you consider transmissions, especially those related to family clusters, then such a high level of single occupancy households has to be an advantage,

1.8 of 10.3 million Swedish citizens live alone. A rate of 17%. This 1.8 million, or 17% live in 1.8 million of the 4.7 million housing stock. A rate of 38%. You deliberately misconstrue this 38% figure to be both 50% and imply that 50% of people live alone. By way of contrast, approximately 8-10% of Irish people live alone. So, around 83% of Swedish people live in family clusters as compared to around 90% in Ireland. Classic trolling misinformation.

3: Example of conspiracy theory.

Each and every time you imply the Swedes are massaging the reporting of numbers and that there is collusion between government and the medial profession to facilitate this.

3: Example of dissembling.

When you feign concern for the elderly population of Sweden. Yet when you were asked to commentate the effects of lockdown and the reduction in foreign aid to the third world all you can manage is a political diatribe against the Tories. For someone who presents himself as left -wing you may have missed the chapter on the international brotherhood of man and solidarity with your fellow citizens of the world.

You said you believed I have 2,000 posts on this thread. It appears you actually went through them all for your pedantic nitpicking.
I`ll reply to the rest of your post when I find the time, but in the meantime I notice in your reply you cut my post.

Your original point was that I did not understand the difference between IFR and CFR.
Did you cut my post because you did not really understand the difference that CFR is a simple verifiable mathematical equation, whereas IFR is mathematical goobbledygook based on the principal of "whatever you`re having yourself" where in the three instances it has been attempted, using different base percentages, it has been shown a complete failure ?

charlie14 · 11-01-2021 2:47pm

glasso wrote: »

Sweden had very limited legal powers to do anything heretofore

A new law has just passed to bring in more measures

They are still held back by Sweden's constitution, which does not give ministers the power to impose a state of emergency, allowing a nationwide lockdown.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-swedens-new-covid-lockdown-law-takes-effect/a-56185101

even now they just can't close places like pubs, gyms etc without violations being cited.

It`s virtually the same as the Pandemic Act they let lapse in June that was supposed to take until next Summer to reintroduce.

Whether through the government recognising the seriousness of the present situation, or due to pressure from the regional authorities, it has now been introduced after an emergency Christmas sitting of parliament and immediately put to use.

bb1234567 · 11-01-2021 3:17pm

Total deaths in Sweden released - just the last day of December missing:P

95.3k deaths 2020
5 year average 90.9k

FintanMcluskey · 11-01-2021 3:20pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

Total deaths in Sweden released - just the last day of December missing:P

95.3k deaths 2020
5 year average 90.9k

Much better than I was expecting.

Accounting for a growing ageing population that’s at least finished off the excess death argument once and for all

11-01-2021 3:36pm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Much better than I was expecting.

Accounting for a growing ageing population that’s at least finished off the excess death argument once and for all

lol :pac:

love the "get the comment in early" strategy though

Ginger n Lemon · 11-01-2021 3:48pm

Seweryn wrote: »

It should. And here are the numbers:

It is an average year for Sweden in terms of deaths and you could find worse years in the past, i.e. 2015, 2016, 2017, etc. The 2019 brings the calculated five year average down a good bit though.

bb1234567 wrote: »

Total deaths in Sweden released - just the last day of December missing:P

95.3k deaths 2020
5 year average 90.9k

DPM 2020 9,135 if your deaths are correct.

Eclipsing the deadly pandemic of 2015 that resulted in 9,131 deaths per million.

Fintan - thoughts?

Seweryn · 11-01-2021 4:16pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

Total deaths in Sweden released - just the last day of December missing:P

95.3k deaths 2020
5 year average 90.9k

5 year average... of what? Total deaths or deaths per million (population)? The difference between Sweden 5 years ago and Sweden today is almost twice the population of Iceland.

Anyway, no matter how we look at the numbers, the last year's death figures in Sweden are not going to make the 2020 extraordinary.

charlie14 · 11-01-2021 4:23pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

Total deaths in Sweden released - just the last day of December missing:P

95.3k deaths 2020
5 year average 90.9k

Pretty much the figure I was expecting and said. In fairness to Frank the same from him. 5,000 excess deaths (5%)
It certainly kills the often expressed belief by some here that Sweden would have lower deaths for 2020 than 2019 or 2018.

As Sweden for the first 12 weeks had lower than average deaths it will be interesting to see what the year to year figure will be in March. Even though by then, with Sweden now using lockdown, they should also have large numbers vaccinated.

11-01-2021 4:52pm

Seweryn wrote: »

5 year average... of what? Total deaths or deaths per million (population)? The difference between Sweden 5 years ago and Sweden today is almost twice the population of Iceland.

Anyway, no matter how we look at the numbers, the last year's death figures in Sweden are not going to make the 2020 extraordinary.

Those 540,000 newborns and mostly immigrants are probably all really old :pac:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50kP4S0peAs

biko · 11-01-2021 5:01pm

Seweryn wrote: »

5 year average... of what? Total deaths or deaths per million (population)? The difference between Sweden 5 years ago and Sweden today is almost twice the population of Iceland.

Anyway, no matter how we look at the numbers, the last year's death figures in Sweden are not going to make the 2020 extraordinary.

Numbers have been pretty constant at 90K-ish since 1970s.
2002 was a very high year with 95000 dead
As Swedish population is increased medical advances improve keeping the 90K figure stable.

j@utis · 11-01-2021 8:00pm

I'm waiting for Seweryn to update his spreadsheet. Hello?!

11-01-2021 8:28pm

Seweryn wrote: »

5 year average... of what? Total deaths or deaths per million (population)? The difference between Sweden 5 years ago and Sweden today is almost twice the population of Iceland.

Anyway, no matter how we look at the numbers, the last year's death figures in Sweden are not going to make the 2020 extraordinary.

Here for example is the breakdown by age group of immigrants into Sweden in 2019

Very low % in the covid death age groups and much less than the general population
https://www.statista.com/statistics/521717/sweden-population-by-age/#:~:text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20population,olds%2C%20reaching%20about%201.3%20million.

Immigration accounts for most of the 540,000 population increase in Sweden since 2015

https://www.statista.com/statistics/524123/sweden-number-of-immigrants-by-age/

cnocbui · 12-01-2021 12:32pm

Ireland has made it into the news down under:

Ireland had one of the lowest COVID-19 rates in Europe. It now has the highest
Restrictions were relaxed across Ireland just before Christmas as the new variant began to spread.

While countries across Europe battle a third wave, in Ireland, the trajectory in recent weeks isn't just an upward curve: it's the path of a rocket ship.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ireland-had-one-of-the-lowest-coronavirus-rates-in-europe-its-now-highest-in-the-world-20210112-p56thy.html

But Sweden...

tobefrank321 · 12-01-2021 12:33pm

Bar maybe Finland, Norway, Cyprus, Iceland, etc I don't think any country is going to escape without excess deaths for 2020.

If the Sweden example is the same across Europe, then excess deaths will be about half of total covid deaths for 2020.

The Swedes are very good with their stats. We will know by mid January how many people died in 2020 and how many of those died of covid. Ireland in contrast are terrible, we won't know maybe for 5 or 6 months how many died in 2020 and how many died of covid, just running daily totals of notified covid deaths.

I really think Sweden are best in the world with their covid stats, giving you total notified deaths for a day and also the day the death took place.

As for everyone else, Ireland will probably have an excess of about 1200 for 2020, Denmark 700, UK 35,000, etc

biko · 12-01-2021 12:56pm

Sweden officially dead 9433
Norway 478
Denmark 1597
Finland 597

We'll see if they get a post-Christmas surge in cases and deaths.

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa and
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/

tobefrank321 · 12-01-2021 1:04pm

biko wrote: »

Sweden officially dead 9433
Norway 478
Denmark 1597
Finland 597

We'll see if they get a post-Christmas surge in cases and deaths.

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa and
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/

January is probably going to be the worst month of the pandemic, unsurprising really. Denmark has had more deaths in this wave than its first wave, Sweden has less so far - they had about 5800 deaths up to August 1st, but eventually it will be the same.

Ireland are doing surprisingly well with deaths but today could see a change. Hopefully not.

charlie14 · 13-01-2021 1:28am

tobefrank321 wrote: »

January is probably going to be the worst month of the pandemic, unsurprising really. Denmark has had more deaths in this wave than its first wave, Sweden has less so far - they had about 5800 deaths up to August 1st, but eventually it will be the same.

Ireland are doing surprisingly well with deaths but today could see a change. Hopefully not.

I cannot see the logic behind you believing Sweden and Denmark will have the same deaths eventually.

Denmark has 57% of Sweden`s population and 1,623 deaths compared to Sweden`s 9,667.
For both to eventually end up the same, Denmark would need to have 5,500 deaths at this point and both be on the same trajectory of new cases. Sweden`s new case 14 day average per 100,000 is 760, Denmark 437.

Sweden avoiding lockdown

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