Sweden avoiding lockdown

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

I cannot see the logic behind you believing Sweden and Denmark will have the same deaths eventually.


Denmark has 57% of Sweden`s population and 1,623 deaths compared to Sweden`s 9,667.
For both to eventually end up the same, Denmark would need to have 5,500 deaths at this point and both be on the same trajectory of new cases. Sweden`s new case 14 day average per 100,000 is 760, Denmark 437.

I wonder could we examine the crude death rate from the Scandinavian countries over the last 3-4 years.

Perhaps bit cynical or Seweryn could graph those stats?

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I wonder could we examine the crude death rate from the Scandinavian countries over the last 3-4 years.

Perhaps bit cynical or Seweryn could graph those stats?

I don`t know what that would show Fintan that we do not know already about Covid-19 deaths as regards the Scandinavian countries.

Seweryn did acknowledge that his figure for Swedish deaths were incomplete.
End of year deaths for Sweden will be as near as makes no difference 96.5K.
While I believe his figure for Sweden`s population 2020 is a bit high, but deaths per million won`t be far off 5% great than the 5 year average. Same percentage greater than the 10 year average deaths.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

I cannot see the logic behind you believing Sweden and Denmark will have the same deaths eventually.


Denmark has 57% of Sweden`s population and 1,623 deaths compared to Sweden`s 9,667.
For both to eventually end up the same, Denmark would need to have 5,500 deaths at this point and both be on the same trajectory of new cases. Sweden`s new case 14 day average per 100,000 is 760, Denmark 437.

I don't think I ever said Sweden and Denmark would have the same deaths eventually. I said Denmark would not be spared this wave and they are having it much worse this time around than the first wave. Cases are coming down now so in a week or two deaths should be back under 20 a day on average.

Sweden appear to have stabilized their new cases. I wouldn't be surprised if the decline is similar to our own, despite the different approaches. It will be interesting to compare cases in both countries this week.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I don't think I ever said Sweden and Denmark would have the same deaths eventually. I said Denmark would not be spared this wave and they are having it much worse this time around than the first wave. Cases are coming down now so in a week or two deaths should be back under 20 a day on average.

Sweden appear to have stabilized their new cases. I wouldn't be surprised if the decline is similar to our own, despite the different approaches. It will be interesting to compare cases in both countries this week.

You only have to go back 4 posts to see you actually did.

"Denmark has had more deaths in this wave than it`s first wave, Sweden has less so far - they had about 5,800 up to August 1st. but eventually it will be the same."

Denmark also appear to have stabilised their new case, even more so than Sweden. Whatever about this week, for the two weeks up until yesterday Sweden`s new case 14 day average per 100,000 population is 760, Denmark`s 437.

Denmark may have been hit hard since August 1st. but Sweden has been hit more than twice as hard.
1st. August Sweden`s deaths were 5,743. Denmark 615.
From 1st. to 12th. January Sweden`s deaths are 3,924. Denmark`s 1,008.
In that period Sweden`s deaths per 100,000 of population has been 39. Denmark`s 18.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

You only have to go back 4 posts to see you actually did.

"Denmark has had more deaths in this wave than it`s first wave, Sweden has less so far - they had about 5,800 up to August 1st. but eventually it will be the same."

Denmark also appear to have stabilised their new case, even more so than Sweden. Whatever about this week, for the two weeks up until yesterday Sweden`s new case 14 day average per 100,000 population is 760, Denmark`s 437.

Denmark may have been hit hard since August 1st. but Sweden has been hit more than twice as hard.
1st. August Sweden`s deaths were 5,743. Denmark 615.
From 1st. to 12th. January Sweden`s deaths are 3,924. Denmark`s 1,008.
In that period Sweden`s deaths per 100,000 of population has been 39. Denmark`s 18.

You've misread what I said, but I'm happy to clarify. Sweden has less deaths in this wave but eventually Swedens deaths will be the same as with (Swedens) first wave.

cnocbui

If I were Swedish, I certainly would have a clear conscience and sleep well at night, given the consequnces of not having an innitial lockdown:



What pandemic?

here's the actual updated figures from same site - for December 30 -
sure it's only a few thousand dead more people that have been added on!

JimmyVik

How can you have one person publishing the exact same report, within a couple of hours of each other, as the next person but with a few thousand less deaths?
What gives?

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

How can you have one person publishing the exact same report, within a couple of hours of each other, as the next person but with a few thousand less deaths?
What gives?

one is from Dec 18 based figures

one from Dec 30 based figures using updated figures from Swedish stats office

not sure if statista just updated today from recently released figures or if poster just had an old copy saved

either way the higher value is the official figure from Swedish CSO and won't be going back down - here's a current link

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

FintanMcluskey

Interesting that 2019 had 4000 deaths less than 2018.

Subsequently 2020 had 5000 deaths more than 2019

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Interesting that 2019 had 4000 deaths less than 2018.

Subsequently 2020 had 5000 deaths more than 2019

3970 deaths above the 2010 to 2020 year average in 2020

4367 deaths above the 2010 to 2019 average in 2020

As most of the population increase is due to incoming immigrants with population percentages in the death age groups (65+) much lower than the existing general population it's generous to not address that factor as it's actually improving the stats

FintanMcluskey

glasso wrote: »

3970 deaths above the 2010 to 2020 year average in 2020

4367 deaths above the 2010 to 2019 average in 2020

As most of the population increase is due to incoming immigrants with population percentages in the death age groups (65+) much lower than the existing general population it's generous to not address that factor as it's actually improving the stats

2019 had a much lower death rate than the average.

Almost as much as 2020 was above it.

Perhaps it meant more citizens were vulnerable to Covid

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

2019 had a much lower death rate than the average.

Almost as much as 2020 was above it.

Perhaps it meant more citizens were vulnerable to Covid

speculative at best - the prior year 2018 had a higher number - so....

that's why averages are more useful

j@utis

Is there bar chart like this for Irish deaths?

j@utis

j@utis wrote: »

Is there bar chart like this for Irish deaths?

Ireland only goes to 2018

https://www.statista.com/statistics/580193/death-rate-in-ireland/

most likely 'cos the Irish CSO are shyte at reporting compared to the Swedes

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

2019 had a much lower death rate than the average.

Almost as much as 2020 was above it.

Perhaps it meant more citizens were vulnerable to Covid

that's also way out to start with.

2020 difference to average is 2.3 times (130% larger) the 19 difference to average on the 2010 to 19 average and

1.7 times the difference on the 2010 to 2020 average

Mules

Sweden has had no lockdown, we had one before Christmas, we now have another one but we are the ones with the highest rate of covid in the world

biko

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/facit-smittan-72-procent-varre-an-i-fhms-scenario/
The number of cases of covid-19 in Sweden last week was 72 percent higher
than the projections published by the Swedish Public Health Agency before Christmas.

The outcome was higher in 19 of 21 counties.

Mules

Mules wrote: »

Sweden has had no lockdown, we had one before Christmas, we now have another one but we are the ones with the highest rate of covid in the world

Paddies went way too far on pre-Christmas lunching and subsequent visiting all the relations over Christmas

Loads of people reporting in with 20 to 30 close contacts on tracing

Google mobility activity timeline shows highest pre-Christmas mobility in the EU pre Christmas on recreation activity - restaurants, shopping centres, cafes

Loads spread it there then met up with all sides of the family trees at Christmas / with friends to spread it - the more close contacts the more spreading

Ireland's lockdown ended well before Christmas

Ireland had the highest rate last week.

All to do with pre-Christmas and Christmas

won't be highest this week

Google Mobility

Mules

glasso wrote: »

Paddies went too far on pre-Christmas lunching and subsequent visiting all the relations over Christmas

Ireland's lockdown ended well before Christmas

Ireland doesn't have the highest rate of Covid in the world

Highest rate per capita, I thought?

Mules

Mules wrote: »

Highest rate per capita, I thought?

see above

Ireland wanted to "save Christmas" but fcuked it up instead (Covid-wise)

Bit cynical

glasso wrote: »

Paddies went way too far on pre-Christmas lunching and subsequent visiting all the relations over Christmas

Loads of people reporting in with 20 to 30 close contacts on tracing

True but this has to be seen as a consequence of a fairly heavy but unsustainable set of restrictions in the weeks leading up to it.

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

True but this has to be seen as a consequence of a fairly heavy but unsustainable set of restrictions in the weeks leading up to it.

sorry don't buy that.

can only imagine the horrible situation of some families who met up in big groups at Christmas pointing the finger at who effectively put Mammy in hospital or worse.

pent-up-demand about having to go see the lads for bants in Peploe's won't cut it as an excuse

if you honestly think that if Ireland had been following the Swedish strategy that it wouldn't be way worse here you really are failing to account for the hugely different mpm*ratio in the two countries

*muppets per million

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You've misread what I said, but I'm happy to clarify. Sweden has less deaths in this wave but eventually Swedens deaths will be the same as with (Swedens) first wave.

Personally I would not look at Sweden`s first wave deaths as a great benchmark, but hopefully for this wave with these new restrictions and vaccines they can achieve that or better.
To do that though they are going to have to get their new case numbers seriously under control. There are more people hospitalised now than at any time in 2020 and they have had close to 850 deaths in the last 8 days.

Bit cynical

glasso wrote: »

sorry don't buy that.

can only imagine the horrible situation of some families who met up in big groups at Christmas pointing the finger at who effectively put Mammy in hospital or worse.

pent-up-demand about having to go see the lads for bants in Peploe's won't cut it as an excuse

if you honestly think that if Ireland had been following the Swedish strategy that it wouldn't be way worse here you really are failing to account for the hugely different mpm*ratio in the two countries

*muppets per million

I've never felt that we should follow the Swedish strategy exactly - it has to be tailored to each country individually, but they do seem to have got sustainability right. If you overdo restrictions then they become unsustainable and you end up with a spike in infections and the health system overwhelmed.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I've never felt that we should follow the Swedish strategy exactly - it has to be tailored to each country individually, but they do seem to have got sustainability right. If you overdo restrictions then they become unsustainable and you end up with a spike in infections and the health system overwhelmed.

Sweden recalled parliament at Christmas to vote through new laws and put them to use right away attempting to get their infection numbers under control. That is in addition to all the other changes that were forced on them in October by the local authorities. I don`t know what sustainability policy you are talking about, but its not the sustainability policy of the first wave.

Sweden has had a huge spike in infections.
1st. September Sweden had 84,521 infections. Today that number is 512,203 infections and more hospitalised than at any time during this pandemic.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden has had a huge spike in infections.
1st. September Sweden had 84,521 infections. Today that number is 512,203 infections and more hospitalised than at any time during this pandemic.

But not as big as Ireland's. Ireland peaked at about double that of Sweden a few days ago. See graph below. You see there Ireland peaking at 132 per day per 100k averaged over the previous 7 days.

Thankfully numbers are falling now.



The reason for this, I believe, is that people were generally more cooped up in Ireland than in Sweden and felt the need to get out more in the couple of weeks they were allowed.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

But not as big as Ireland's. Ireland peaked at about double that of Sweden a few days ago. See graph below. You see there Ireland peaking at 132 per day per 100k averaged over the previous 7 days.

Thankfully numbers are falling now.



The reason for this, I believe, is that people were generally more cooped up in Ireland than in Sweden and felt the need to get out more in the couple of weeks they were allowed.

Ireland has had a large spike due to restrictions being dropped over Christmas, but with level 5 lockdown being reimposed I would expect number to drop further in the coming days.
Sweden on the other hand has had high case numbers for some time now, and they are staying stubbornly high. And as we know high case numbers lead to higher deaths.


Since September 1st. Ireland has had 129,969 confirmed cases. Sweden 427,632. Allowing for population size since 1st.September Sweden has had 65% more confirmed cases than Ireland.
Sweden really need to begin getting their case numbers down, and tbh I`m not convinced the restrictions/recommendations they have now are going to do that sufficiently.

tobefrank321

Bit cynical wrote: »

I've never felt that we should follow the Swedish strategy exactly - it has to be tailored to each country individually, but they do seem to have got sustainability right. If you overdo restrictions then they become unsustainable and you end up with a spike in infections and the health system overwhelmed.

Ireland's trajectory now appears to be following that of a number of countries who crushed the curve but could not sustain it, eg Czechia, Slovenia, Hungary, Portugal, Poland, etc. You'd worry where its going in Ireland.

Lockdowns only work if there's a buy in from the public. Here people went along with restrictions for long periods but then gave up in December.

Looking how things are now, I wouldn't actually be surprised if in the end, Irelands deaths per million are worse than Sweden's. Hopefully not.

Cerveza

Cheap wine from Lidl and Aldi have a lot to blame for it.