Sweden avoiding lockdown

Interesting how this Sweden thread is basically a proxy thread for some for "shouldn't have lockdowns in Ireland"

then when the paddies go mad at Christmas it's down to pent up demand

Irish people like to go mad every Christmas - not related to pent up demand

even tho it was tame by non-pandemic standards it still caused a lot of damage.

JimmyVik

glasso wrote: »

Interesting how this Sweden thread is basically a proxy thread for some for "shouldn't have lockdowns in Ireland"

then when the paddies go mad at Christmas it's down to pent up demand

Irish people like to go mad every Christmas - not related to pent up demand

even tho it was tame by non-pandemic standards it still caused a lot of damage.

Not seeing that in the thread tbh

greyday

glasso wrote: »

Interesting how this Sweden thread is basically a proxy thread for some for "shouldn't have lockdowns in Ireland"

then when the paddies go mad at Christmas it's down to pent up demand

Irish people like to go mad every Christmas - not related to pent up demand

even tho it was tame by non-pandemic standards it still caused a lot of damage.

Some posters are so wed to Sweden's let it rip strategy that they are still blind to its failure, they like to use the bad timing of other Countries lockdowns and opening up as evidence to Swedens success, Frank would not be surprised if Ireland passed Swedens shocking deaths per million figures while most others would know that this will not happen in a month of Sundays, Frank would like it to happen to prove he was correct as he has very little else to hang on to, obviously most Countries made mistakes opening up for Christmas and are now paying the price for that, we are already starting to see infection rates decline in Ireland which is of course too little too late for those that have already lost close family for the populist decision to open up at the start of December, we should be back to sustainable levels by April, it will be interesting at that time to see where Sweden are as their figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt for up to a month after infections and deaths have happened, when looking at their daily deaths it is not unusual for 40 or more deaths to be added for a day 2 to 3 weeks previous and Frank thinks that a great way to report, in fact their reporting is the best in the world according to Frank.

FintanMcluskey

greyday wrote: »

Some posters are so wed to Sweden's let it rip strategy that they are still blind to its failure, they like to use the bad timing of other Countries lockdowns and opening up as evidence to Swedens success, Frank would not be surprised if Ireland passed Swedens shocking deaths per million figures while most others would know that this will not happen in a month of Sundays, Frank would like it to happen to prove he was correct as he has very little else to hang on to, obviously most Countries made mistakes opening up for Christmas and are now paying the price for that, we are already starting to see infection rates decline in Ireland which is of course too little too late for those that have already lost close family for the populist decision to open up at the start of December, we should be back to sustainable levels by April, it will be interesting at that time to see where Sweden are as their figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt for up to a month after infections and deaths have happened, when looking at their daily deaths it is not unusual for 40 or more deaths to be added for a day 2 to 3 weeks previous and Frank thinks that a great way to report, in fact their reporting is the best in the world according to Frank.

Seems like Frank lives in your head tbh

JimmyVik

greyday wrote: »

Some posters are so wed to Sweden's let it rip strategy that they are still blind to its failure, they like to use the bad timing of other Countries lockdowns and opening up as evidence to Swedens success, Frank would not be surprised if Ireland passed Swedens shocking deaths per million figures while most others would know that this will not happen in a month of Sundays, Frank would like it to happen to prove he was correct as he has very little else to hang on to, obviously most Countries made mistakes opening up for Christmas and are now paying the price for that, we are already starting to see infection rates decline in Ireland which is of course too little too late for those that have already lost close family for the populist decision to open up at the start of December, we should be back to sustainable levels by April, it will be interesting at that time to see where Sweden are as their figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt for up to a month after infections and deaths have happened, when looking at their daily deaths it is not unusual for 40 or more deaths to be added for a day 2 to 3 weeks previous and Frank thinks that a great way to report, in fact their reporting is the best in the world according to Frank.

Ah come on now.
Frank doesnt care whether he is right or wrong. In fact he probably knows hes wrong,

but he has taken a position in this thread and he will not give up on it til everyone in this thread hasd died of either Covid or old age

seamus

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Looking how things are now, I wouldn't actually be surprised if in the end, Irelands deaths per million are worse than Sweden's. Hopefully not.

I'd be incredibly surprised because that would require 2,500 covid deaths to be registered over the next 3-4 weeks; about 100/day every day until early February.

Our numbers have been bad, but not that bad.

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

Ah come on now.
Frank doesnt care whether he is right or wrong. In fact he probably knows hes wrong,

but he has taken a position in this thread and he will not give up on it til everyone in this thread hasd died of either Covid or old age

Unlikely either will happen. Charlie has probably posted far more than me.

Unlike a couple of posters who drop by for a smart ar*e comment now and again and are generally only interested in personal attacks eg Greyday, I try to engage properly with the subject.

Greyday was very vocal when Ireland was doing well and Sweden badly. He's gone quiet now Ireland is in trouble. You get that with people who don't understand covid waves.

My focus was never on what Ireland did, more with what Sweden was doing. A lot of countries who followed the lockdown approach are very likely to end up far worse than had they followed the Sweden approach. There is no reason why countries like Slovenia and now Portugal should end up the way they are going. They are either very small low population countries or else have geographical advantages being on the edge of Europe.

And harsh lockdown experiments in a number of countries such as Czechia look likely to cost thousands of lives needlessly.

Sweden meanwhile are going to end up somewhere between 30th and 40th in deaths per million, a remarkable achievement.

greyday

seamus wrote: »

I'd be incredibly surprised because that would require 2,500 covid deaths to be registered over the next 3-4 weeks; about 100/day every day until early February.

Our numbers have been bad, but not that bad.

And for Sweden to have no deaths in that period
But Hey, facts are not something Frank really cares much about


For Frank, I would never have opened up in December and may have posted that on his thread but unfortunately whinny lads like yourself convinced the people in power that the benefit outweighed the risk, ye were wrong again but the populists listened to ye.
Even at level 5 there was going to be far more mingling than from before October over the Christmas period which was going to see numbers rise from a base higher than we had expected from the October lockdown, it didnt take a genius to see things could get out of hand very quickly but the whinny ejits got their way with the opening up resulting in a vicious spread of the virus.

tobefrank321

seamus wrote: »

I'd be incredibly surprised because that would require 2,500 covid deaths to be registered over the next 3-4 weeks; about 100/day every day until early February.

Our numbers have been bad, but not that bad.

Covid is unlikely to be over in the next 3-4 weeks, especially as by Nphets own figures, there are 1.5 million in the vulnerable category and vaccinating them will take time.

JimmyVik

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Unlikely either will happen. Charlie has probably posted far more than me.

Unlike a couple of posters who drop by for a smart ar*e comment now and again and are generally only interested in personal attacks eg Greyday, I try to engage properly with the subject.

Greyday was very vocal when Ireland was doing well and Sweden badly. He's gone quiet now Ireland is in trouble. You get that with people who don't understand covid waves.

My focus was never on what Ireland did, more with what Sweden was doing. A lot of countries who followed the lockdown approach are very likely to end up far worse than had they followed the Sweden approach. There is no reason why countries like Slovenia and now Portugal should end up the way they are going. They are either very small low population countries or else have geographical advantages being on the edge of Europe.

And harsh lockdown experiments in a number of countries such as Czechia look likely to cost thousands of lives needlessly.

Sweden meanwhile are going to end up somewhere between 30th and 40th in deaths per million, a remarkable achievement.

You are relentless.
Everyone will go quiet eventually. Its like being slapped in the face with a wet fish all dat every day. Only so much people can take before the just go away.

I think there are probably 3 people in the world now at this stage that think Swedens strategy was right.
None of them are in Sweden either.

FintanMcluskey

JimmyVik wrote: »

I think there are probably 3 people in the world now at this stage that think Swedens strategy was right.
None of them are in Sweden either.

Nobody in Europe got it correct using your theory.

Doesn’t mean lockdown was the correct approach either

greyday

351 deaths notified today, looks sustainable according to Frank, thankfully they look to have stabilised the infection rate but still at over 6.5K they have a long way to go yet and have seen little change in two months.
To be fair to the Irish people, if the last two days infection rates continues for another few days, we will have halved our infection rate in 3 weeks.

JimmyVik

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Nobody in Europe got it correct using your theory.

Doesn’t mean lockdown was the correct approach either

Who got it more wrong than Sweden?

FintanMcluskey

JimmyVik wrote: »

Who got it more wrong than Sweden?

About 50% of European countries

greyday

JimmyVik wrote: »

Who got it more wrong than Sweden?

Let it play out Jimmy, with 351 deaths notified today and infections still at the rate they were in at the end of November, unfortunately for Sweden the high daily death rates will continue for some time to come.
We are obviously seeing high death rates now as well with another bad couple of months to come but our indicators are starting to go in the right direction.
If Sweden reported like everyone else they would be posting 2500 deaths when compared to Germany, unfortunately its not possible to get their actual daily death rates until about 3 weeks after they happen.

JimmyVik

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

About 50% of European countries

Who?

FintanMcluskey

JimmyVik wrote: »

Who?

I struggle to believe you don’t know who has higher death rate pro rata population, or population over 65.

However, if you are that poorly informed on the subject why are you debating on the matter?

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

You are relentless.
Everyone will go quiet eventually. Its like being slapped in the face with a wet fish all dat every day. Only so much people can take before the just go away.

I think there are probably 3 people in the world now at this stage that think Swedens strategy was right.
None of them are in Sweden either.

Utterly immature post.

If you don't like my posts, put me on ignore. In fact I'd ask that you do that.

Support for Sweden's approach is well over 50% in Sweden, where it matters.

3 people? - you're relentless in telling lies.

tobefrank321

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I struggle to believe you don’t know who has higher death rate pro rata population, or population over 65.

However, if you are that poorly informed on the subject why are you debating on the matter?

I think its willful ignorance on his part.

He probably thinks Sweden has the worst deaths per million. Given that he thinks 3 people support Swedens strategy, its obvious he doesn't know what he's talking about.

JimmyVik

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I struggle to believe you don’t know who has higher death rate pro rata population, or population over 65.

However, if you are that poorly informed on the subject why are you debating on the matter?

You said 50% of European countries have had more deaths than Sweden from Covid?
I dont believe you.

Please tell us the 50% of europe who have more covid deaths than Sweden.

JimmyVik

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Utterly immature post.

If you don't like my posts, put me on ignore. In fact I'd ask that you do that.

Support for Sweden's approach is well over 50% in Sweden, where it matters.

3 people? - you're relentless in telling lies.

:rolleyes:

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

You said 50% of European countries have had more deaths than Sweden from Covid?
I dont believe you.

Please tell us the 50% of europe who have more covid deaths than Sweden.

Ironic from a guy who said 3 people agree with Sweden's strategy!

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Let it play out Jimmy, with 351 deaths notified today and infections still at the rate they were in at the end of November, unfortunately for Sweden the high daily death rates will continue for some time to come.
We are obviously seeing high death rates now as well with another bad couple of months to come but our indicators are starting to go in the right direction.
If Sweden reported like everyone else they would be posting 2500 deaths when compared to Germany, unfortunately its not possible to get their actual daily death rates until about 3 weeks after they happen.

FFS. :rolleyes:

Today they posted notified deaths and also the day they happen. They are the only country in the world who do this. They cannot tell you the day the person died until they are notified.

In Ireland they only post notified deaths. You are unlikely ever to know the exact day the person died nor are you ever going to know actual daily death rates and if you do its certainly not well publicised.

How do you not know this after posting here for so long?

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Covid is unlikely to be over in the next 3-4 weeks, especially as by Nphets own figures, there are 1.5 million in the vulnerable category and vaccinating them will take time.

I don`t have a clue where you are going with this.


Covid is highly unlikely to be over in the next 3-4 weeks in Sweden either.
Sweden, as you have often reminded us, has 50% more citizens aged 65 and over than Ireland so their percentage of those vulnerable is also highly likely to be greater. Their percentage vaccinated is no better, so the posters comments stand up imo.

Bit cynical

JimmyVik wrote: »

You said 50% of European countries have had more deaths than Sweden from Covid?
I dont believe you.

Please tell us the 50% of europe who have more covid deaths than Sweden.

Sweden is indeed very close to overall EU figure for deaths per million from Covid.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t have a clue where you are going with this.


Covid is highly unlikely to be over in the next 3-4 weeks in Sweden either.
Sweden, as you have often reminded us, has 50% more citizens aged 65 and over than Ireland so their percentage of those vulnerable is also highly likely to be greater. Their percentage vaccinated is no better, so the posters comments stand up imo.

Its very difficult to know what Ireland's actual case numbers are at the moment. They went from over 8000 down to 3000 and up to 3500 in a week. The reason for that is there was a backlog and IT issues. There is also a high positivity rate and not everyone who should get a test is getting one, eg close contacts.

As you know there's usually about a 2 week lag in reporting of deaths.

In summary Ireland is only at the start of a fairly long period of high deaths.

Sweden's peak in cases was 23rd December. Since then there's been a gradual decline and the 7 day average is about 5000 cases a day these days, roughly 2500 cases pro rata with Ireland.

My point is Ireland is at the start of a longish period of high deaths.

But yes, Sweden's 50% more over 65s should be factored in.

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Unlike a couple of posters who drop by for a smart ar*e comment now and again and are generally only interested in personal attacks eg Greyday, I try to engage properly with the subject.

Followed by

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Utterly immature post.

If you don't like my posts, put me on ignore. In fact I'd ask that you do that.

Support for Sweden's approach is well over 50% in Sweden, where it matters.

3 people? - you're relentless in telling lies.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think its willful ignorance on his part.

He probably thinks Sweden has the worst deaths per million. Given that he thinks 3 people support Swedens strategy, its obvious he doesn't know what he's talking about.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Ironic from a guy who said 3 people agree with Sweden's strategy!

You actually couldn't make up the level of cognitive dissonance at play.

How are Denmark, Finland and Norway doing compared to Sweden Frank?

Combined population of 16m and 2,700 deaths compared to Sweden's 10m and 10,200 deaths?

Oh right...

Necro

Mod:

tobefrank321 and Wetasnotter - put each other on ignore if you cannot engage in a civil manner. Any questions my PM inbox is open.

Seweryn

glasso wrote: »

here's the actual updated figures from same site - for December 30 -
sure it's only a few thousand dead more people that have been added on!

And here is the comparison using the above figures:



Sure, we can bring any argument or philosophy to this, i.e. immigration in recent years, vitamin D, more sunshine than we have here in Ireland, etc...

growleaves

Seweryn wrote: »

And here is the comparison using the above figures:

Sure, we can bring any argument or philosophy to this, i.e. immigration in recent years, vitamin D, more sunshine than we have here in Ireland, etc...

What a complete sham.

These tremendously destructive lockdowns are unjustifiable.

This thread was originally two threads back in March, prior to merging them in April.

The OP of one these threads was by a statistician modelling mass death in Sweden based on assumptions similar to the Imperial College London paper.

When it became clear that wasn't going to happen that OP was blended out of existence through said thread-merging and a bunch of new posters (charlie14 etc.) showed up with "muh Nordic neighbours" talking points that they cribbed from The Guardian newspaper.

The ongoing defense of these lockdowns is one of the weirdest things in human history. Have people forgotten that separating families, psychologically crushing social isolation and socio-economic destruction of SMEs (regardless of the macro-economic outlook) are bad things?