Sweden avoiding lockdown

Bit cynical

STB. wrote: »

NO THEY DID NOT. They are ONLY testing those with respiratory problems. THAT is the reason these trends mean nothing.

However deaths per day due to the virus would be almost entirely due to respiratory problems caused by that virus.

STB.

niallo27 wrote: »

You original post talked about closed cases. 88% of closed cases in Ireland ended in death, do you dispute this.

THAT'S NOT WHAT YOU SAID.

Regardless.

94% of our cases (we are actually actively testing, Sweden are not) are active

73% of 2000 cases died. That's a fifth of overall cases.

Our cases numbers closed are limited as they are still active. 88% of fúck all is still fúck ALL. Look at the numbers.

What do you not understand about that ? Its like talking to a class of 5 years olds.

robinbird wrote: »

Sweden has plenty of excess ICU capacity it hasn't needed and to ability to provide more if necessary. In addition the figures can be very misleading. 42per cent of deaths in Sweden are in nursing homes. Many other countries including UK are deliberately not counting nursing home deaths in order to make their figures look much lower.

No they don't. Like us they are among the lowest in Europe. 5.8 ICU beds per 100k. They are in serious trouble in a few weeks.

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

THAT'S NOT WHAT YOU SAID.

90% of our cases (we are actually actively testing, Sweden are not) are active

73% of 2000 case closed in Sweden is 1500.

Our cases numbers closed are limited as they are still active. 88% of fúck all is still fúck ALL. Look at the numbers.

What do you not understand about that ? Its like talking to a class of 5 years olds.

Wow you think 573 people dead is **** all. These are real people

Att vara en hest

STB. wrote: »

Who cares ? Countries with limited ICU capacity who don't want them overwhelmed ALL at the ONE TIME with unnecessary triaging of people over certain ages or with underlying medical conditions. THAT'S WHO.

You clearly don't understand what control of a pandemic. Or you are one of these Herd Immunity lunatics who doesn't understand what that means either. Your nonsense about antibodies clearly underlines your limited knowledge.

time to put down the cans mate.. what "nonsense about antibodies" am I saying? I've made 0 claims about them. Feels like you're trolling.

I'm just stating that Sweden have said that they will start testing random groups of people for antibodies to get a better idea of spread throughout the society, this is no nonsense but info directly from FHM / Swedish authorities (whom I trust more than you, I'm sorry...)

robinbird

STB. wrote: »

THAT'S NOT WHAT YOU SAID.

Regardless.

94% of our cases (we are actually actively testing, Sweden are not) are active

73% of 2000 cases died. That's a fifth of overall cases.

Our cases numbers closed are limited as they are still active. 88% of fúck all is still fúck ALL. Look at the numbers.

What do you not understand about that ? Its like talking to a class of 5 years olds.

You've gone from "Wait a month. I'll be right" to resorting to confusing and pointless statistics to try to confuse. I really have no idea whatsoever what the above means. It's just meaningless mumbo jumbo.

robinbird

robinbird wrote: »

Sweden has plenty of excess ICU capacity it hasn't needed and to ability to provide more if necessary. In.

STB. wrote: »

No they don't. Like us they are among the lowest in Europe. 5.8 ICU beds per 100k. They are in serious trouble in a few weeks.

Your response is again misleading and disingenuous. I said that they have plenty of excess icu capacity which they do. And once again resorting to "wait a few weeks. I'll be right" which is complete bull.****. They are at or close to the peak now.

STB.

robinbird wrote: »

You've gone from "Wait a month. I'll be right" to resorting to confusing and pointless statistics to try to confuse. I really have no idea whatsoever what the above means. It's just meaningless mumbo jumbo.

robinbird wrote: »

You are talking complete rubbish. When the figures contradict your argument you resort to " Wait for another month" The figures are available now and all the evidence points to Sweden being past its peak with deaths decreasing.

You are the one talking nonsense. You haven't a clue about their ICU capacity. You clearly don't understand that given they haven't been testing that no effective modelling can be done with Sweden. Your claims about reaching their peak is laughable. Their chief advisor is on about the long game whilst the disease blindly spreads among his fellow countrymen not realising the answer might happen quick and as a shock. All denial aspects of a do nothing regime.

Your BS doesn't wash with me. Clearly you are one of these herd immunity loons. Between you and the mensa student posting about antibodies, the other kid who cannot divide one number into another, its a toss up who is the worst.

Att vara en hest

STB. wrote: »

No they don't. Like us they are among the lowest in Europe. 5.8 ICU beds per 100k. They are in serious trouble in a few weeks.

"in a few weeks".. It's already been 2+ months, with an incubation period of ~2 weeks and number of deaths already dropping I think that real numbers are telling a different story.

But only time will tell.. for all we know numbers can pop up again.

Here's the most reliable dataset for Sweden:
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/
(as far as I know, the only one which takes in to account when death actually occurred, not when it was reported)

timmy_mallet

STB. wrote: »

You are the one talking nonsense. You haven't a clue about their ICU capacity. You clearly don't understand that given they haven't been testing that no effective modelling can be done with Sweden. Your claims about reaching their peak is laughable. Their chief advisor is on about the long game whilst the disease blindly spreads among his fellow countrymen not realising the answer might happen quick and as a shock. All denial aspects of a do nothing regime.

Your BS doesn't wash with me. Clearly you are one of these herd immunity loons. Between you and the mensa student posting about antibodies, the other kid who cannot divide one number into another, its a toss up who is the worst.

If this was being said by the bloke on the barstool next to you, you'd have moved 20 minutes ago

robinbird

STB. wrote: »

94% of our cases (we are actually actively testing, Sweden are not) are active

73% of 2000 cases died. That's a fifth of overall cases.

Our cases numbers closed are limited as they are still active. 88% of fúck all is still fúck ALL. Look at the numbers.

What do you not understand about that ? Its like talking to a class of 5 years olds.

.

timmy_mallet wrote: »

If this was being said by the bloke on the barstool next to you, you'd have moved 20 minutes ago

Why are we humouring this idiot?

STB.

Att vara en hest wrote: »

"in a few weeks".. It's already been 2+ months, with an incubation period of ~2 weeks and number of deaths already dropping I think that real numbers are telling a different story.

But only time will tell.. for all we know numbers can pop up again.

Here's the most reliable dataset for Sweden:
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/
(as far as I know, the only one which takes in to account when death actually occurred, not when it was reported)

I suggest you read these, rather than guess work.


Start with the first one, written on the 14/4. The death figures at that time were 1000. 5 days later its 1500+



https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/14/sweden-22-scientists-say-coronavirus-strategy-has-failed-as-deaths-top-1000/#3889df8e7b6c

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/swedish-coronavirus-no-lockdown-model-proves-lethal-by-hans-bergstrom-2020-04

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

I suggest you read these, rather than guess work.


Start with the first one, written on the 14/4. The death figures at that time were 1000. 5 days later its 1500+



https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/14/sweden-22-scientists-say-coronavirus-strategy-has-failed-as-deaths-top-1000/#3889df8e7b6c

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/swedish-coronavirus-no-lockdown-model-proves-lethal-by-hans-bergstrom-2020-04

Go to bed.

STB.

timmy_mallet wrote: »

If this was being said by the bloke on the barstool next to you, you'd have moved 20 minutes ago

Why's that Einstein ?

Att vara en hest

STB. wrote: »

I suggest you read these, rather than guess work.
Start with the first one, written on the 14/4. The death figures at that time were 1000. 5 days later its 1500+

It's been repeated in this thread multiple times, Sweden is always lagging behind a couple of days when it comes to death reporting. The link I provided adds the deaths to the date when the death actually occurred. Most other sites do NOT, they will add them to the date when death was REPORTED. This makes it look as if numbers are growing, especially after last weeks 4 day weekend (Friday and Monday were both bank holidays).

STB. wrote: »

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/14/sweden-22-scientists-say-coronavirus-strategy-has-failed-as-deaths-top-1000/#3889df8e7b6c

22 scientists doesn't really anything, I'm sure you can also find 22 scientists claiming the earth is flat... Doesn't mean they're right.


Edit: As this is the first post on a new page it's worth reposting again...
*Folkhälsomyndigheten corona statistics page: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/
*Folkhälsomyndigheten's own dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
*Folkhälsomyndigheten raw data: https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/data

^^^ These all account for time of death rather than time of report. Updated once per day. For info on deaths, you're looking for "Avlidna/dag" (Dead per day).


Sites like worldometer and c19.se becomes misleading when they report deaths as occurring on the day they were reported, sometimes gathering deaths from a 4 day period and putting it on a single day. The lagging behind in deaths being reported is annoying and I'm not exactly sure why it happens, but it has been explained countless times that the numbers presented each day are not actual deaths over the last 24 hours but rather over the last couple of days.

charlie14

robinbird wrote: »

Nobody's disputing your figures but you have been very selective in deliberately only choosing the countries that have lower per capita death rates than Sweden. You have selectively and disingenuously removed from your table all of the EU countries that have much higher figures that Sweden despite suspending civil liberties and destroying their economies.

PS. I intended this as a response to STB and his using selective and misleading data to support his argument

Italy`s numbers are higher, but their initial Lombardy lock-down was a shambles. Britain`s numbers are also higher, but then they initially went with the Sweden model on herd immunity before have to impose a lock-down when the number of deaths rose dramatically and the number of infections threatened to swamp their health service.

robinbird

Att vara en hest wrote: »

It's been repeated in this thread multiple times, Sweden is always lagging behind a couple of days when it comes to death reporting. The link I provided adds the deaths to the date when the death actually occurred. Most other sites do NOT, they will add them to the date when death was REPORTED. This makes it look as if numbers are growing, especially after last weeks 4 day weekend (Friday and Monday were both bank holidays).

22 scientists doesn't really anything, I'm sure you can also find 22 scientists claiming the earth is flat... Doesn't mean they're right.


^^^ These all account for time of death rather than time of report. Updated once per day. For info on deaths, you're looking for "Avlidna/dag" (Dead per day).

So based on this data it seems likely that Sweden passed the peak on 8th Apr and deaths per day are decreasing. Should be noted that it is in the interests on any country that has gone into lockdown at attach the swedish approach.

Beasty

STB. wrote: »

Given we have 14.7k cases how many deaths have we had ?



Maths and English clearly not your strong subject.

Attack the post, not the poster

STB.

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

STB I have been looking at your posts with the last week and honestly you strike me as someone that's having a hard time dealing with all this, the aggressiveness and obvious panic.

Would you try having a chat with your GP? I am being deadly serious, it's a tough time for all, but you seem to be consuming yourself with it all and it's not doing you any good.

No I am grand. Thanks for thinking though.

You know these whole herd immunity/Look at Sweden, no lockdown stories became so common that RTE had a headline saying "Is Sweden's lenient approach to Covid-19 working" a few days ago, and then several debunking articles.

I am not panicked about Sweden. Why would I be ? I just wont have the posts advocating unproven herd immunity practices and misquoting stats and general whataboutery as if it were true.

PCeeeee

Att vara en hest wrote: »

22 scientists doesn't really anything, I'm sure you can also find 22 scientists claiming the earth is flat... Doesn't mean they're right.

Off topic but if you can find a single scientist claiming the world is flat then please post it.

charlie14

robinbird wrote: »

So based on this data it seems likely that Sweden passed the peak on 8th Apr and deaths per day are decreasing. Should be noted that it is in the interests on any country that has gone into lockdown at attach the swedish approach.

I would not be too sure about that.
From what I have seen the number testing positive in Sweden on Thursday 16th was the highest daily number for the previous week. Plus it should be taken into account that their testing numbers are low.

STB.

Att vara en hest wrote: »

22 scientists doesn't really anything, I'm sure you can also find 22 scientists claiming the earth is flat... Doesn't mean they're right.

A petition signed by more than 2,000 doctors, scientists, and professors including the chairman of the Nobel Foundation, Prof Carl-Henrik Heldin – called on the government to introduce more stringent containment measures. “We’re not testing enough, we’re not tracking, we’re not isolating enough – we have let the virus loose,” said Prof Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, a virus immunology researcher at the Karolinska Institute. “They are leading us to catastrophe.”

Over the past 5 reporting days, their deaths have went from 1000 to 1500+

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

I would not be too sure about that.
From what I have seen the number testing positive in Sweden on Thursday 16th was the highest daily number for the previous week. Plus it should be taken into account that their testing numbers are low.

However you are comparing deaths per day with positive cases, the latter figure being very dependent on the numbers being tested.

Bit cynical

STB. wrote: »

Over the past 5 reporting days, their deaths have went from 1000 to 1500+

Though some of that could have been the backlog from the Easter weekend.

OneEightSeven

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden only 111 deaths in last 24 hours, a continuation of similar figures of the last few days. Where's this massive spike all the experts told us was coming. Were they wrong again?

I think the lower figures is due to weekend reporting. If you open the link below with Google translate and scroll about halfway down the page to "number of new deaths", the weekend numbers are, mostly, lower than the weekday numbers of the same week:

https://platz.se/coronavirus/

The site doesn't display any kind of guide, but it appears the dates are colour-coded to distinguish the weekdays from the weekends and bank holidays. I've alos noticed this site has about +30 more deaths than Worldometers for some reason.

jibber5000

STB. wrote: »

THAT'S NOT WHAT YOU SAID.

Regardless.

94% of our cases (we are actually actively testing, Sweden are not) are active

73% of 2000 cases died. That's a fifth of overall cases.

Our cases numbers closed are limited as they are still active. 88% of fúck all is still fúck ALL. Look at the numbers.

What do you not understand about that ? Its like talking to a class of 5 years olds.



No they don't. Like us they are among the lowest in Europe. 5.8 ICU beds per 100k. They are in serious trouble in a few weeks.

The ICU capacity number is really nonsense.

If the surge does come they will just extend the ICU to include theatre recovery areas. All it takes is reskilling nurses and purchasing ventilators, neither of which is a big issue.

It would be helpful if you understood this before posting in absolutes.

jibber5000

jibber5000 wrote: »

The ICU capacity number is really nonsense.

If the surge does come they will just extend the ICU to include theatre recovery areas. All it takes is reskilling nurses and purchasing ventilators, neither of which is a big issue.

It would be helpful if you understood this before posting in absolutes.

Mate, you have no idea what you are talking about if you think you can reskill nurses on the fly. Somebody who.says it's not a big issue has never worked in a hospital.

Kermit.de.frog

It's 150 deaths per million as of today and 1,511 deaths.

jams100

Yes Sweden have more deaths right now but I'm starting to think they are taking the right long term approach (not criticizing the Irish government btw, all the steps we've taken are with the best of intents).

From what I'm hearing from the experts a vaccine could take up 2 years but more likely 12-18 months, like it or not our economy can't be "offline" that long. It mightn't be the politically correct thing to say but unfortunately a proportion of people who contract covid-19 and die have an underlying illness and some of them are going to die in the short term anyway, which doesn't detract in anyway from each death being a tragedy.

Whilst we have undoubtedly saved many lives over the past few weeks and will over the next few weeks, we also have to take into account Mary down the Supermarket, John in the bank, Peter in the reception may have developed some form of cancer or other illness over the last 3 or weeks or so which is going undetected (yes it may have gone undetected anyway) but private hospitals are closed for diagnostics breast check is closed, most diagnostics shuttered. Long term people are going to die if this roles on, already reports that people suffering heart attacks aren't showing up to hospitals for days.

I have a lot of time for Tony Holohan and Co I think there handling of the situation and explanations when asked questions has been very impressive, even when they seemingly have to answer the same question everyday from the same journalist, with some journalists seemingly making a statement rather than putting a question to the experts, regardless, the way the experts have presented themselves, the HSE and Ireland has been superb in my opinion.

Unfortunately however Tony is the Chief Medical Officer and I worry that all his decisions will be made in the interest of public health interest which is what you would expect, but there will come a point where Leo, Paschal and Co are going to have to make a hard decision which will be in the economic which is directly related to health that will probably result in more short term deaths in favor of saving further deaths down the line. Whatever decision they make they will be criticized, but this current situation can't be maintained much further than the end of May.

Are Sweden correct? Basing on your numbers they clearly aren't right now, but in 5 years time when they are investing 30% extra into health and Ireland are investing maybe 3% will they still be wrong? My point is I don't think we can tell right now, we'll know when this is long over who was right.

I think most of us are accepting of festivals, concerts, GAA being cancelled and social distancing being maintained until the end of the year, but hardware stores, golf clubs, places where social distancing could be maintained should be opened sooner rather than later.

One thing is for sure this is a s**t situation and there are no easy answers

Kermit.de.frog

jams100 wrote: »

Are Sweden correct?

Let me say this - they better not be the last country holding the straw of mass infection because no one will trade with a country that's riddled.

If you think the US or China will open to Sweden after what they have been through when Sweden has done almost nothing to eradicate the disease - that won't happen.

So Sweden needs to get on board fast or take the consequences.

Or countries will be closed to them.

Simple as that.

jibber5000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Mate, you have no idea what you are talking about if you think you can reskill nurses on the fly. Somebody who.says it's not a big issue has never worked in a hospital.

That's what we did here. Nurses have been upskilled in ICU work over the past 2 months.

To say people would just be left to die if/when Sweden reaches its official ICU capacity is wrong.

And yes I do work in a hospital.