Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

True. Just look at 2019 - their lowest death year for the last 43 years. A good few daths have been "extended" from that year to 2020...

Just look at their deaths for the first 11 weeks of 2020. They were lower by 1,536 than the 2015-2019 average.

That suggests for a normal year they would have been on track to be close to their total deaths being similar to 2019. Not 9,276 greater and still counting.

biko

11 March was the first Covid death in Sweden.
We're still almost 2 months away from 11 March 2021 and we have already exceeded 90K, the usual death toll per year.

biko

Danno wrote: »

And the elephant in the room is your overlooking of natural population increase coupled with inward migration. The population in 2010 is not what it was in 2020. Try again.

Since the 80s Sweden have had a large immigration that went into overdrive since 2000.
Still the numbers remain pretty solid at 90K every year since 1980s.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Excess deaths are going to be a feature for most of Europe this year and also for 2020. The size of excess deaths for each country is going to reflect covid deaths per million so Belgium is likely to be the worst, followed by Slovenia, Italy, UK and so on.

I don't think people are surprised by the number of excess deaths in Sweden so much as how relatively few there are. We were promised at least 100,000 excess deaths by some people if Sweden continued on its path. We were told it was going to "end badly" for the Swedes, but it ended mid table for them.

I would imagine those that were predicting less deaths than 2019 or 2018 will be surprised. But then some of them have a record of ignoring uncomfortable truths.

PCeeeee

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Basically there was a lot of elderly people who should have died in previous years who unfortunately died this year.

The crafty devils.

Some of them probably should have been dead years back but they hung on in there, breathing, eating, sleeping, living. Still they were on borrowed time anyhow so they died but they had it coming.

tobefrank321

PCeeeee wrote: »

The crafty devils.

Some of them probably should have been dead years back but they hung on in there, breathing, eating, sleeping, living. Still they were on borrowed time anyhow so they died but they had it coming.

We all have it coming sooner or later. You chose to ignore the positives of the Swedes keeping alive people into very old age.

No surprise there.

Sweden were one of the best at keeping their elderly alive up to this pandemic. And even with this pandemic still are.

Not bad for a nation of supposed granny killers!

PCeeeee

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We all have it coming sooner or later. You chose to ignore the positives of the Swedes keeping alive people into very old age.

No surprise there.

Sweden were one of the best at keeping their elderly alive up to this pandemic. And even with this pandemic still are.

Not bad for a nation of supposed granny killers!

No surprise how, you are assuming something about me? What is it can I ask?

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

At 20% Sweden has the same proportion of those aged 65 and over as Denmark, 2% less than Finland with 22%, and 3% more than Norway who have 17%.
Allowing for population the percentage of those 65 and over in the other three Nordic countries is the same as Sweden. Allowing for population Sweden`s Covid deaths are 5 times greater.

So Sweden have almost 20% more elderly than Norway (one of the richest nations in the world).

Do you see why people think its utter nonsense to call the Swedes a nation of granny killers or that the Swedes don't care about their elderly, a theme that runs strongly through many of your posts

Its bullsh*t to claim the Swedes don't care about their elderly.

Also, can you explain why Norway have almost 20% less elderly than the Swedes? We're not talking a couple thousand here. We're talking pro rata hundreds of thousands less.

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

11 March was the first Covid death in Sweden.
We're still almost 2 months away from 11 March 2021 and we have already exceeded 90K, the usual death toll per year.

Excess deaths will be a feature for most European countries for the duration of this pandemic. The Swedes will be no different.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Just look at their deaths for the first 11 weeks of 2020. They were lower by 1,536 than the 2015-2019 average.

That suggests for a normal year they would have been on track to be close to their total deaths being similar to 2019. Not 9,276 greater and still counting.

Well done for pointing out excess deaths will be a feature in the worst pandemic in a century.

Now where is the 100,000 excess deaths we were promised for Sweden?

tobefrank321

SheepsClothing wrote: »

So as long as they don't have the highest excess death rate in Europe (who have on the whole, performed much worse than East Asia), their strategy was a "success"? Got to celebrate the small things in these times I suppose.

You will probably have noticed by now that Sweden are in the EU and are therefore largely committed to open borders even in a pamdemic although many countries are only now closing their borders to people without a negative test, something they should have done 9 months ago.

Norway are not committed to open borders nor are any of the East Asian countries you mention or NZ or Australia.

NZ closed all their entry points and quarantined arrivals. Apart from that life has returned to normal there. Lockdowns are useless without border closures and forced quarantine. Even Norway has gone down that route now. Its a harsh approach but doable for a small nation like Norway with relatively few arrivals.

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You will probably have noticed by now that Sweden are in the EU and are therefore largely committed to open borders even in a pamdemic although many countries are only now closing their borders to people without a negative test, something they should have done 9 months ago.

Norway are not committed to open borders nor are any of the East Asian countries you mention or NZ or Australia.

NZ closed all their entry points and quarantined arrivals. Apart from that life has returned to normal there. Lockdowns are useless without border closures and forced quarantine. Even Norway has gone down that route now. Its a harsh approach but doable for a small nation like Norway with relatively few arrivals.

You don't know that Norway are in the Schengen area.

You don't know that Norway are beholden to EU rules on freedom of movement.

You don't know that EU rules allow border closures on exceptional circumstances and other EU countries have already engaged in such.

You don't know that Norway have had border closures since the Summer.

You don't know that Norway had 22.5m international passengers visit via air on 2019 while Sweden only had ~27m, despite having almost twice the population.

In 2019, Gardermoen was busier than Arlanda, Bergen was as busy as Goteborg.

Why is it that you state facts that are easily disproven?

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So Sweden have almost 20% more elderly than Norway (one of the richest nations in the world).

Do you see why people think its utter nonsense to call the Swedes a nation of granny killers or that the Swedes don't care about their elderly, a theme that runs strongly through many of your posts

Its bullsh*t to claim the Swedes don't care about their elderly.

Also, can you explain why Norway have almost 20% less elderly than the Swedes? We're not talking a couple thousand here. We're talking pro rata hundreds of thousands less.

Let go of that straw Frank. It`s not going to float.;)

On incomplete Statistica data for those aged 70 and over, Sweden has 8,398 Covid deaths (8,948 aged 60 and over)

Norway with 53.5% of Sweden`s population has 521 deaths in total.
Making allowances for population, the equivalent of 955 deaths.

If ALL Norway`s deaths were aged 70 and over, Sweden`s would still be almost 9 times greater.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Well done for pointing out excess deaths will be a feature in the worst pandemic in a century.

Now where is the 100,000 excess deaths we were promised for Sweden?

Have you tried looking in the predictions file from March of Sweden having herd immunity within weeks ?

It`s probably in there alongside the other prediction that Sweden would have high levels of immunity for a second wave.

biko

My favourite prediction is from the Swedish Health Authority in January 2020 that Sweden would not get the virus at all and there was nothing to worry about.

biko

biko wrote: »

11 March was the first Covid death in Sweden.
We're still almost 2 months away from 11 March 2021 and we have already exceeded 90K, the usual death toll per year.

Are yearly death tolls usually compiled from 11th March - 11th March?

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

Sweden's critics however are guilty of something similar: so long as Sweden is not the very best in Europe (e.g. Malta, Finland) they are a complete and utter failure. Both are a distortion.

Most of the evidence so far is pointing to Sweden being roughly mid range within the EU, but with lower collateral damage from lockdowns and restrictions than the EU generally. On that basis, Sweden can be considered success compared to its EU colleagues.

WOW .... someone using logic and reason rather than following one or the other narrative! The horror !!!!

biko

Deleted User wrote: »

Are yearly death tolls usually compiled from 11th March - 11th March?

If we want to compare "a year with covid" vs "a year without covid" then that's how we'll have to measure.
Otherwise it's "10 months with covid" vs "12 moths without covid", which seems to be how people are measuring right now.

CalamariFritti

Just been to worldometer as you do and Sweden's deaths are after falling off a cliff. Whats going on there?

ghostfacekilla

Just been on the subway in central stockholm today during rush hour where the recent guidelines have stated one must wear a mask for the two busiest hours of the morning and the evening on weekdays. There was probably over half wearing masks but many were not.
There is no fine for not wearing one.
Restaurants stop serving booze around 8pm I think.

charlie14

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Just been to worldometer as you do and Sweden's deaths are after falling off a cliff. Whats going on there?

Worldometer`s gave up on Sweden`s numbers months ago.
Their total deaths are correct but not their daily death.

For today Worldometer has 32 deaths, Sweden has posted 268.
Prior dates are the same.

yagan

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Just been to worldometer as you do and Sweden's deaths are after falling off a cliff. Whats going on there?

Sweden advised that there was usually a two weeks lag between deaths and they showing up in the stats. I guess it goes back to the start when they treated Covid as a flu and still haven't centralised information collation about the outbreak.

Screen shot todays graph and compare it to a few days from now.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Worldometer`s gave up on Sweden`s numbers months ago.
Their total deaths are correct but not their daily death.

For today Worldometer has 32 deaths, Sweden has posted 268.
Prior dates are the same.

They havent given up posting Swedens numbers, they report Swedens numbers incorrectly. They report notified deaths for everywhere else, but day of death for Sweden.

The mistake is worldometers. Its obviously automated. It would take them 5 minutes to switch to notified deaths which are easily available.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Let go of that straw Frank. It`s not going to float.;)

On incomplete Statistica data for those aged 70 and over, Sweden has 8,398 Covid deaths (8,948 aged 60 and over)

Norway with 53.5% of Sweden`s population has 521 deaths in total.
Making allowances for population, the equivalent of 955 deaths.

If ALL Norway`s deaths were aged 70 and over, Sweden`s would still be almost 9 times greater.

Nice changing of the goalposts. I wasn't referring to covid deaths, but to the fact Sweden has almost 20% more elderly than Norway, so the Swedes are doing a pretty good job of keeping their grannys alive in general.

Ginger n Lemon

ghostfacekilla wrote: »

Just been on the subway in central stockholm today during rush hour where the recent guidelines have stated one must wear a mask for the two busiest hours of the morning and the evening on weekdays. There was probably over half wearing masks but many were not.
There is no fine for not wearing one.
Restaurants stop serving booze around 8pm I think.

Please me. Give this to me. I ll take not being able to buy alcohol in restaurants after 8. Hell, I'll even settle for getting my hair cut before 2 PM if necessary.

I cant do either now, and havent in the last 4 months out of last 6. And probably wont do either before March.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nice changing of the goalposts. I wasn't referring to covid deaths, but to the fact Sweden has almost 20% more elderly than Norway, so the Swedes are doing a pretty good job of keeping their grannys alive in general.

No changing goalposts Frank. I have no idea how many were grannies grandads or if they had any other family members, but when it comes to Covid, Norway has done a much better job keeping them alive.

On incomplete Statistica data for those aged 70 and over, Sweden had 8,398 Covid deaths. 8,948 Covid deaths aged 60 and over.

Norway`s total Covid deaths to date are 525. Making allowances for population size, the equivalent of 981 deaths.

If all Norway`s Covid deaths were aged 70 and over, Sweden`s is 856% greater.
If all Norway`s Covd deaths were aged 60 and over, Sweden`s is 912% greater. .

Greyian

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nice changing of the goalposts. I wasn't referring to covid deaths, but to the fact Sweden has almost 20% more elderly than Norway, so the Swedes are doing a pretty good job of keeping their grannys alive in general.

Having more elderly people as a proportion of your population doesn't require you to be good at keeping people alive for a long time.
Higher birth rates will mean a lower proportion of your population will be elderly.
Recent wars will mean a higher proportion of your population are likely to be elderly (as younger people die in greater numbers in war).

Since 1960, Sweden's population has grown by approximately 37%.
Since 1960, Norway's population has grown by approximately 49%.

It would be odd if Sweden's population wasn't skewed more towards the elderly, as they haven't had the same proportion of young people being born.

For the majority of the last 60 years, Norway has had a higher fertility rate than Sweden (particularly in the 40 years between 1960 and 2000).
It's only natural that with more people being born, you would have fewer elderly people as a percentage of your population.

If everyone below the age of 65 emigrated from Ireland tomorrow, our elderly population would be 100% of our population.
It doesn't suddenly mean we're excellent at keeping our elderly people alive.
It's also a large part of why we have such a young population. High birth rates = more young people. More young people = younger average population.

biko

Greyian wrote: »

It would be odd if Sweden's population wasn't skewed more towards the elderly, as they haven't had the same proportion of young people being born.

Sweden and Norway compared by age brackets

https://www.indexmundi.com/sweden/age_structure.html
0-14 years: 17.71% (male 928,413/female 878,028)
15-24 years: 10.8% (male 569,082/female 532,492)
25-54 years: 39.01% (male 2,016,991/female 1,962,617)
55-64 years: 11.9% (male 610,521/female 603,795)
65 years and over: 20.59% (male 974,410/female 1,126,142) (2020 est.)

https://www.indexmundi.com/norway/age_structure.html
0-14 years: 17.96% (male 503,013/female 478,901)
15-24 years: 12.02% (male 336,597/female 320,720)
25-54 years: 40.75% (male 1,150,762/female 1,077,357)
55-64 years: 11.84% (male 328,865/female 318,398)
65 years and over: 17.43% (male 442,232/female 510,594) (2020 est.)

y2k2020

biko wrote: »

My favourite prediction is from the Swedish Health Authority in January 2020 that Sweden would not get the virus at all and there was nothing to worry about.

Dr Fauci and many other experts said the same thing

Dr Fauci got so many things wrong its laughable

"Obviously, you need to take it seriously and do the kind of things the (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and the Department of Homeland Security is doing. But this is not a major threat to the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about."

"I don’t think so," Fauci said. "The American people should not be worried or frightened by this. It’s a very, very low risk to the United States, but it’s something we, as public health officials, need to take very seriously."

Retr0gamer

y2k2020 wrote: »

Dr Fauci and many other experts said the same thing

Dr Fauci got so many things wrong its laughable

He never said that, that's just a Steven Bannon twisting of the facts to try and divert the blame from Trumps in competent buffoonery:

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200429/fact-check-did-fauci-say-coronavirus-was-lsquonothing-to-worry-aboutrsquo