Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

humberklog wrote: »

She has as far as I'm aware never mentioned Sweden's approach at least not in any meaningful way.

Ah here, lumping a poster in with GO'D just because they've an opposing view of how Sweden handled the virus shows a serious lack of debating ability.

It's just lazy snideness.

She may not have mentioned Sweden, but she is an advocate of Ireland following their initial no lockdown policy. I have not made the comparison to other posters, but her views are not that far removed from some here who argue the same.

Hector Savage

glasso wrote: »

Norway has 10% of the Swedish covid per capita death rate

They have 17% foreign born population.

Absolutely massive difference... in the Covid per capita death rate that is at 1/10th that of Sweden

What is the overall death rate in Norway in 2020 compared to Sweden ?

Norway just don't have as many deaths labelled with covid.

Truth is Sweden has a slightly higher excess death rate than usual - far less than Spain which had harsh lockdowns.
Again this boils down to "it's ok to die - so long as it's not anything to do with covid"

Hector Savage

Hector Savage wrote: »

What is the overall death rate in Norway in 2020 compared to Sweden ?

Norway just don't have as many deaths labelled with covid.

Truth is Sweden has a slightly higher excess death rate than usual - far less than Spain which had harsh lockdowns.
Again this boils down to "it's ok to die - so long as it's not anything to do with covid"

Sweden has had in 2020 the highest excess mortality per capita and excess deaths in a year in over 100 years.

1 in over a 100 years in not remotely slightly usual

that measures dying overall... objective measure that doesn't just measure Covid...

This thread is about Sweden's policy and that is most relevantly compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland and their outcomes on different policies

Spain is not a relevant comparator country for Sweden for assessing policy difference outcomes on Covid due to not being relevant geographically or culturally and probably demographically

Breezin

glasso wrote: »

... pretence and a proxy-argument agenda hope that it could be proven that lockdowns are a fail

How about some evidence-based argument that our untargeted superlockdown is a fail?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/is-covid-19-plateauing-and-have-our-sacrifices-all-been-in-vain-1.4474449

Many of us who have cooped ourselves up at home for weeks now have difficulty understanding how it is that 15,000 people still require testing every day. While some of this is due to serial testing, we seem to be a very long way from suppressing the disease.
GPs report seeing patients who have waited too long with their symptoms before seeking a test, thereby exposing others to potential infection. The high number of outbreaks among intellectual care facilities and travellers at present is also a concern. One would have to wonder whether public health messaging, while drowning the rest of us, is reaching the groups it needs to reach.

Breezin

Breezin wrote: »

How about some evidence-based argument that our untargeted superlockdown is a fail?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/is-covid-19-plateauing-and-have-our-sacrifices-all-been-in-vain-1.4474449

go to the non-Sweden thread maybe - i.e. plenty of Ireland threads in the forum

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

How about some evidence-based argument that our untargeted superlockdown is a fail?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/is-covid-19-plateauing-and-have-our-sacrifices-all-been-in-vain-1.4474449

The author of that article may not like lockdown, but like those who stridently oppose it, he offers no alternative.
In fact he states : "The figures also show that, by and large, people are staying home and limiting their contacts, which are essential to halting the spread of infections"

The call by some to open up everything because I want a haircut and to be able to go to the pub when I feel like it are not going to achieve that.

biko

Sweden wants to appear forceful and have implemented a strict "no entry with a valid negative certificate" policy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/healthcoronavirus-sweden-travel-idUSL8N2K509Y
“From Saturday, the 6th of February, foreign citizens who want to enter Sweden will have to show a negative COVID-19 test,” Prime Minister Stefan Lofven told a news conference.
“Without that they won’t be able to enter the country.”



Exempt from this new policy are:

• Children (below 18)
• Border commuters to surrounding countries
• Foreign citizens resident in Sweden
• Urgent family reasons
• Urgent medical reasons
• Professional athletes
• Asylum seekers

Which leaves UK tourists I assume.

Breezin

glasso wrote: »

go to the non-Sweden thread maybe - i.e. plenty of Ireland threads in the forum

I was responding to your comment on the Irish approach. We are talking about Sweden comparatively, from an Irish and international perspective.

charlie14 wrote: »

The author of that article may not like lockdown, but like those who stridently oppose it, he offers no alternative.
In fact he states : "The figures also show that, by and large, people are staying home and limiting their contacts, which are essential to halting the spread of infections"

He's not an anti-lockdowner. He's saying that we've all done what's necessary, but it hasn't worked. And that points to the policy's lack of efficacy. Yes, it's a contradiction that the appears not be able to resolve, the that's his problem. Maybe he'll develop it.

And the fact that he hasn't got an easy alternative doesn't take away from his conclusion.

charlie14 wrote: »

The call by some to open up everything because I want a haircut and to be able to go to the pub when I feel like it are not going to achieve that.

No one is seriously proposing that, and I certainly am not. Yet another disingenuously vague straw man argument. I actually think that was addressed somewhere in the very first phase of this thread, so very long ago now, but you are still relying on it.

If you want to argue with Gemma, then go argue with Gemma.

Breezin

Breezin wrote: »

I was responding to your comment on the Irish approach. We are talking about Sweden comparatively, from an Irish and international perspective.



He's not an anti-lockdowner. He's saying that we've all done what's necessary, but it hasn't worked. And that points to the policy's lack of efficacy. Yes, it's a contradiction that the appears not be able to resolve, the that's his problem. Maybe he'll develop it.

And the fact that he hasn't got an easy alternative doesn't take away from his conclusion.



No one is seriously proposing that, and I certainly am not. Yet another disingenuously vague straw man argument. I actually think that was addressed somewhere in the very first phase of this thread, so very long ago now, but you are still relying on it.

If you want to argue with Gemma, then go argue with Gemma.

great thanks.

back to Sweden and its policy now.

there are lots of Irish lockdown threads as said.

my point was not about any Irish approach at all but that pretty much all the "Sweden's policy has worked so well" (it hasn't) posters in this thread don't give two fecks about Sweden's actual policy as it's just pretence to try to make some sort of point about the strategy in Ireland as somehow Sweden's failure of policy should prove something...

whatever their agenda may be...

maddeningly for them Sweden has failed in comparison to its relevant peers with its policy and has modified its measures and any arguments to try to connect it to Ireland fall flat on their face

nevertheless it still continues it seems

Charlie14 replying to the irrelevance keeps it going also

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

No one is seriously proposing that, and I certainly am not. Yet another disingenuously vague straw man argument. I actually think that was addressed somewhere in the very first phase of this thread, so very long ago now, but you are still relying on it.

If you want to argue with Gemma, then go argue with Gemma.

Then what are you proposing other than a strategy that has been shown to have failed ?



Btw, before you start throwing around accusations of disingenuously vague straw man argument, the poster that thanked you has been doing so long after the first phase of this thread.



Why would anyone wish yo argue with Gemma a clueless anti lockdown anti face mask nutcase

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

He's not an anti-lockdowner. He's saying that we've all done what's necessary, but it hasn't worked. And that points to the policy's lack of efficacy. Yes, it's a contradiction that the appears not be able to resolve, the that's his problem. Maybe he'll develop it.

And the fact that he hasn't got an easy alternative doesn't take away from his conclusion. .

I did not say he was an anti-lockdowner, I said "he may not like lockdown".
I do not like lockdown, nor have a meet or spoken to anyone who does, but that does not change the fact that he or any strident anti-lockdowners I have read or heard to date have come up with a viable alternative of getting the number of infections down imo.

charlie14

Hector Savage wrote: »

What is the overall death rate in Norway in 2020 compared to Sweden ?

Norway just don't have as many deaths labelled with covid.

Truth is Sweden has a slightly higher excess death rate than usual - far less than Spain which had harsh lockdowns.
Again this boils down to "it's ok to die - so long as it's not anything to do with covid"

Total deaths in Norway 2019 (Statistica) 40,683. 2020 (Statistics Norway) 40,409.A decrease of .067%
Total deaths in Sweden 2019 (Statistica) 88,766. 2020 (statistica) 97,941. an increase of 10.34%


I would not call 10.34% excess deaths as "slighly higher" and I have not heard of any other reason for those excess death other than Covid.



Norway does not have as many deaths "labelled with covid" because they didn`t have anywhere close to as many Covid deaths as Sweden.

charlie14

glasso wrote: »

Charlie14 replying to the irrelevance keeps it going also

That is probably true, but when you read a post addressed to you with the ultimate irrelevance just a few days ago of "Giesecke was right" what else can you do.

99nsr125

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The logic being applied in here is straight from the moon.

Sweden, mid range death rate in the EU with few mitigation measures has been a failure because it didn’t have a lower death rate than the country with the EU’s lowest death rate!??

So by that logic every nation that didn’t better Norway’s death rate is a failure?

But there is still no correlation between stay at home measures and low death rate then

Maybe I’m missing something

Nope, you're not, lockdown zealots use the fact they are not the best at everything to shout failure.

When really a new disease will bring new losses and there's complete bloodimindidness in acknowledging this


It is always the overall affect of decisions you must account for

Lockdowners don't account for the deaths of delayed or missed other medical care, futures shortages in skills and particularly healthcare skills because of interrupted education.


Similarly
Looking at the overall data for efficacy and benefit of vaccines in not just the general population but high risks groups, the important ones was flakey and was accused of I'll be polite, not being able to read the reports correctly..

Now we're having exactly the issued I highlighted

Denmark and Norway contract less than Sweden economically in 2020 and Denmark set to grow more in 2021

Good article about why and how Sweden abandoned its light-touch rules

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/why-sweden-has-tightened-its-light-touch-covid-rules-quicktake

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

Nope, you're not, lockdown zealots use the fact they are not the best at everything to shout failure.

When really a new disease will bring new losses and there's complete bloodimindidness in acknowledging this


It is always the overall affect of decisions you must account for

Lockdowners don't account for the deaths of delayed or missed other medical care, futures shortages in skills and particularly healthcare skills because of interrupted education.


Similarly
Looking at the overall data for efficacy and benefit of vaccines in not just the general population but high risks groups, the important ones was flakey and was accused of I'll be polite, not being able to read the reports correctly..

Now we're having exactly the issued I highlighted

It doesn`t appear as if you are, or ever have been, a Pre-Hospital Emergency Care Council of Ireland (PHECC) first aid responder, or have even taken part in an Occupational First Aid course.
If you had then you should understand the overall potential effects of ignoring severe bleeding in your decision making.
In health care the same applies to a viral pandemic that is causing a 10% and more increase in annual excess deaths.


You really cannot let a post go without throwing a scaremongering dig at vaccines can you!
Of the three approved vaccines the only one, to use your term "flakey", is the AZ vaccine and that "flakey" is not over it`s efficacy for the general population. Only the most vulnerable.


But then you do know that, as well as the fact we are not using the AZ vaccine for the most vulnerable don`t you ?

biko

biko wrote: »

11 March was the first Covid death in Sweden.
We're still almost 2 months away from 11 March 2021 and we have already exceeded 90K, the usual death toll per year.

Sweden is at 12000 deaths but is still 3 weeks away from "one year with covid", give that the first person to die was the 11 March and would have got it 2 weeks before that.
The first death was community transmission.

The first covid case in Sweden, a person arriving infected from Wuhan and was confirmed 24 January.
The second case was a person arriving infected from Italy and was confirmed 26 February.

The infections didn't spike until the first weeks of March 2020.

biko

biko wrote: »

Sweden is at 12000 deaths but is still 3 weeks away from "one year with covid", give that the first person to die was the 11 March and would have got it 2 weeks before that.
The first death was community transmission.

The first covid case in Sweden, a person arriving infected from Wuhan and was confirmed 24 January.
The second case was a person arriving infected from Italy and was confirmed 26 February.

The infections didn't spike until the first weeks of March 2020.

even just the calendar year of 2020 was the worst year in over 100 years for excess mortality per capita and excess deaths

where are the lads with the 4th class primary Excel table sheets claiming an average year for Sweden gone?

sheepysheep

glasso wrote: »

even just the calendar year of 2020 was the worst year in over 100 years for excess mortality per capita and excess deaths

where are the lads with the 4th class primary Excel table sheets claiming an average year for Sweden gone?

Well here's one.

Although, since this data is scientific and addresses all of Europe rather than being an opinion on Sweden alone, you will probably find a way to ignore it.

For those who positively ache to show Sweden in a bad light, this data, kindly compiled by he Economist, linked below, takes in the entire pandemic period from April 2020 to Feb 2 2021. It works off the 10 year excess deaths average.

So, the results for excess deaths for Sweden per 100k of population for this period is 94.

This figure betters Bulgaria, Lithuania, Russia, Poland, Belgium, Britain, Spain, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Portugal, Hungary, Netherlands, Italy, Austria and France. A total of 15 countries as of 3 days ago. Ireland isn't included for some reason.


To put some meat on the bones of this data. When you total the populations of these countries you get a grand figure of 468 million European citizens out of a total population of 741 million. This figure includes the 80% of Russian population which are considered European.

In other words the 10 million citizens of Sweden (protected by their government's pandemic response) have fared better than 63% of the continent's population.

B-plus and very close to First class honours. It certainly debunks the nonsense posted by yourself and others who would like to pretend that only Sweden had excess deaths as a result of Covid.

Not bad for a bunch of bloody-thirsty immoral granny-hunters and a million miles from the 140k casualties predicted.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Bit cynical

Good to see some objective posting on the thread.

sheepysheep wrote: »

This figure betters Bulgaria, Lithuania, Russia, Poland, Belgium, Britain, Spain, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Portugal, Hungary, Netherlands, Italy, Austria and France. A total of 15 countries as of 3 days ago. Ireland isn't included for some reason.

I think the reason Ireland isn't on the chart is that we tend to be several months late in reporting excess deaths compared to other countries.

sheepysheep

sheepysheep wrote: »

Well here's one.

Although, since this data is scientific and addresses all of Europe rather than being an opinion on Sweden alone, you will probably find a way to ignore it.

For those who positively ache to show Sweden in a bad light, this data, kindly compiled by he Economist, linked below, takes in the entire pandemic period from April 2020 to Feb 2 2021. It works off the 10 year excess deaths average.

So, the results for excess deaths for Sweden per 100k of population for this period is 94.

This figure betters Bulgaria, Lithuania, Russia, Poland, Belgium, Britain, Spain, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Portugal, Hungary, Netherlands, Italy, Austria and France. A total of 15 countries as of 3 days ago. Ireland isn't included for some reason.


To put some meat on the bones of this data. When you total the populations of these countries you get a grand figure of 468 million European citizens out of a total population of 741 million. This figure includes the 80% of Russian population which are considered European.

In other words the 10 million citizens of Sweden (protected by their government's pandemic response) have fared better than 63% of the continent's population.

B-plus and very close to First class honours. It certainly debunks the nonsense posted by yourself and others who would like to pretend that only Sweden had excess deaths as a result of Covid.

Not bad for a bunch of bloody-thirsty immoral granny-hunters and a million miles from the 140k casualties predicted.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

you may have noticed that Sweden is rightly considered in relation to its geographic and cultural peers where it has failed.

Sweden has about as much in common with Bulgaria as [insert random country here]

even Denmark which is more geographically exposed has been more successful in limiting deaths by a factor of over three times.

Sweden has also even failed economically in comparison to these same countries - the big purported benefit of their policy

their economy did worse in 2020 than Denmark and Norway

also my point was in any case was in reaction to the primary-level maths triumphalists of this thread who were claiming an average year for Sweden with their sheets when in fact Sweden has just experienced a one in a hundred year event in terms of excess mortality per capita and excess deaths

charlie14

sheepysheep wrote: »

Well here's one.

Although, since this data is scientific and addresses all of Europe rather than being an opinion on Sweden alone, you will probably find a way to ignore it.

For those who positively ache to show Sweden in a bad light, this data, kindly compiled by he Economist, linked below, takes in the entire pandemic period from April 2020 to Feb 2 2021. It works off the 10 year excess deaths average.

So, the results for excess deaths for Sweden per 100k of population for this period is 94.

This figure betters Bulgaria, Lithuania, Russia, Poland, Belgium, Britain, Spain, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Portugal, Hungary, Netherlands, Italy, Austria and France. A total of 15 countries as of 3 days ago. Ireland isn't included for some reason.


To put some meat on the bones of this data. When you total the populations of these countries you get a grand figure of 468 million European citizens out of a total population of 741 million. This figure includes the 80% of Russian population which are considered European.

In other words the 10 million citizens of Sweden (protected by their government's pandemic response) have fared better than 63% of the continent's population.

B-plus and very close to First class honours. It certainly debunks the nonsense posted by yourself and others who would like to pretend that only Sweden had excess deaths as a result of Covid.

Not bad for a bunch of bloody-thirsty immoral granny-hunters and a million miles from the 140k casualties predicted.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

That all looks very colourful and impressive until you get to the section on countries in northern Europe and take a look at that bone.

"Countries in northern Europe have generally experiences much lower mortality rates.Some Nordic countries have experiences almost no excess deaths at all. The exception is Sweden, which imposed some of the continents least restrictive social-distancing measures during the first wave."


When you look at the weekly deaths rate comparisons for northern Europe per 100,000 people, (especially when you hit the absolute button) it really stops looking impressive.

charlie14

charlie14 wrote: »

That all looks very colourful and impressive until you get to the section on countries in northern Europe and take a look at that bone.

"Countries in northern Europe have generally experiences much lower mortality rates.Some Nordic countries have experienced almost no excess deaths at all. The exception is Sweden, which imposed some of the continents least restrictive social-distancing measures during the first wave."


When you look at the weekly deaths rate comparisons for northern Europe per 100,000 people, (especially when you hit the absolute button) it really stops looking impressive.

Indeed.

Even the King of Sweden said it

“I think we have failed. We have a large number who have died and that is terrible"

I don't think that he considers Bulgaria as an actual comparator either.

That's why Sweden has changed track on restrictions.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/coronavirus-sweden-s-king-says-country-s-strategy-has-failed-1.4439515

Wexford 96

Did well

sheepysheep

Bit cynical wrote: »

Good to see some objective posting on the thread.I think the reason Ireland isn't on the chart is that we tend to be several months late in reporting excess deaths compared to other countries.

Yes, it will be interesting to see Irelands excess deaths over that period after the last months deaths.

A number of posters made the point earlier in the year that it would only really be excess deaths which would eventually reveal the true picture.

It's a good objective piece of analysis by the Economist and it really is kryptonite for the 'Immoral Sweden failed murderously brigade'. They ended up in the top half in Europe and fared far better than North and South America also.

sheepysheep

glasso wrote: »

Indeed.

Even the King of Sweden said it


I don't think that he considers Bulgaria as an actual comparator either.

That's why Sweden has changed track on restrictions.

Good stuff. Who would want to waste their time on some scientific data when they can report back on the internal musings of the king of Sweden's head instead.

Proper science there.

sheepysheep

sheepysheep wrote: »

Good stuff. Who would want to waste their time on some scientific data when they can report back on the internal musings of the king of Sweden's head instead.

Proper science there.

is that the one thing that you could attack lol

I'm posting this here for you again as you profess to be a big believer in the concept of excess deaths.

but you seem to be blind.

Sweden has suffered its worse year in over a hundred years for excess deaths and excess mortality per capita

To repeat it has a horrific record compared to its Nordic peers

It has altered course on restrictions, recognicising this failure as a result and is now in line with the restrictions in many European countries

It has also failed compared to its Nordic neighbours on an economic basis, suffering worse GDP contraction in 2020.

That was supposed to be the point of its differing policy but it failed there too.

At this point your attempted defence is frankly pathetic - and imagine having a boards account just for the Sweden thread - doubly pathetic

Your beloved Professor Johan Giesecke is a dead duck at this point.

tobefrank321

glasso wrote: »

you may have noticed that Sweden is rightly considered in relation to its geographic and cultural peers where it has failed.

Given that Ireland and the UK are "geographic peers" how come they haven't turned out the same? Or the US and Canada? Spain and Portugal? Etc etc

The geographic peer argument is a nonsense.

You can have two completely different countries bordering each other.

It feels like you and your mate Charlie have limited geographical knowledge. Would you say Mexico and the US are similar?

There's many glaring differences between modern Sweden and Norway. One is in the EU, the other isn't is just one.

tobefrank321

glasso wrote: »

is that the one thing that you could attack lol

I'm posting this here for you again as you profess to be a big believer in the concept of excess deaths.

but you seem to be blind.

Sweden has suffered its worse year in over a hundred years for excess deaths and excess mortality per capita

To repeat it has a horrific record compared to its Nordic peers

It has altered course on restrictions, recognicising this failure as a result and is now in line with the restrictions in many European countries

It has also failed compared to its Nordic neighbours on an economic basis, suffering worse GDP contraction in 2020.

That was supposed to be the point of its differing policy but it failed there too.

At this point your attempted defence is frankly pathetic - and imagine having a boards account just for the Sweden thread - doubly pathetic

Your beloved Professor Johan Giesecke is a dead duck at this point.

Sweden will end up mid table with covid deaths and excess deaths.

What does that mean for the countries worse than them?