Sweden avoiding lockdown

sheepysheep

charlie14 wrote: »

We really are living in strange times.

A few short months ago we had that old chancer Johan Giesecke in Dublin telling us we should be, bending it like Sweden, or some such rubbish. Last weekend one of his "boys" Anders Tegnell on Sweden`s national public radio discussing restrictions pointing to Ireland, Denmark and the U.K. as countries that have been able to, even with the new variants, reduce the spread of infections.

This being Tegnell it`s probably a leap too far hoping he has finally seen the light. He most likely believes it is all down to hand washing and keeping 1.5 meters apart in crowds without wearing face masks.

We are indeed. We are now nearing the end of the pandemic hopefully and despite dire predictions Sweden's strategy has been distinctly more successful than predicted. Nowhere near the forecast 140k excess deaths.

Here is the economist report again.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker

It clearly shows the results for excess deaths for Sweden per 100k of population for this period is 94.

And it clearly shows that this figure betters Bulgaria, Lithuania, Russia, Poland, Belgium, Britain, Spain, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Portugal, Hungary, Netherlands, Italy, Austria and France. A total of 15 countries.

Even you have not denied that in comparison to the rest of Europe Sweden has done remarkable well.

The only real issue remaining is whether or not this comparison to the rest of Europe is legitimate or not. Should Sweden only be compared to Northern Europe?

Here is A detailed EU report on the state of the health of the EU citizenry.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/he...nce_rep_en.pdf

And here are some of the categories where all EU 27 are compared with each other statistically.

Trends in life expectancy
Inequalities in life expectancy
Healthy life expectancy at birth and at age 65
Main causes of mortality
Mortality from circulatory diseases
Mortality from cancer
Mortality from respiratory diseases
Infant health
Self-reported health and disability
Notified cases of vaccine-preventable diseases
New reported cases of HIV and tuberculosis
Cancer incidence
Diabetes prevalence
Dementia prevalence

Smoking among children
Smoking among adults
Alcohol consumption among children
Alcohol consumption among adults
Illicit drug consumption among children
Illicit drug consumption among adults
Obesity among children
Obesity among adults
Mortality due to air pollution and extreme weather conditions .

Avoidable mortality (preventable and amenable)
Childhood vaccinations
Patient experience with ambulatory care
Mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI)
Mortality following stroke
Waiting times for hip fracture surgery
Screening, survival and mortality for cervical cancer
Screening, survival and mortality for breast cancer
Survival and mortality for colorectal cancer
Late-diagnosed HIV and tuberculosis treatment outcomes
Healthcare-associated infections


Unmet health care needs
Financial burden of out-of-pocket expenditure
Population coverage for health care
Extent of health care coverage
Availability of doctors
Availability of nurses
Consultations with doctors
Availability and use of diagnostic technologies
Hospital beds and discharges
Waiting times for elective surgery

Cancers alone compared include, Breast, Respiratory, Kidney, Gastrointestinal, Reproductive organs, Bladder, Ovary, Uterus and cervical, Lung, Larynx, pharynx, Thyroid, Prostate, Rectum, Pancreas, Stomach, liver, anus, Colon, Testis, vulva, Skin

They're also all compared on Science and Technology, Environment and Energy, Transport, Foreign Trade, Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries, Social issues, Living Conditions and Labour Market in other reports.

Now, I cite this report as overwhelming evidence that as Sweden is regularly compared with everyone else on this huge number of diseases and issues, there is no substantive reason why Sweden should not be compared to all of Europe regarding covid-19. I think we can all assume that covid-19 will most certainly be included in the next one published or the one after.

If you have any science based evidence to refute this argument please provide it and let the science talk.

Otherwise the only logical conclusion is that you only have your opinion and that you are contesting this EU report based on your opinion only.

the delusion and persistence of these "special one-thread-troll-boards account" posters is truly bizarre, particularly in light of the outcome for Sweden and the abandoning of its initial policy.

the incredible pudding

glasso wrote: »

In light of the outcome for Sweden and the abandoning of its initial policy.

It's really not that different than what was in place back last April tbh, other than being able to stay out in a pub past 8pm and only smaller gatherings of folks being allowed out in restaurants.

charlie14

sheepysheep wrote: »

We are indeed. We are now nearing the end of the pandemic hopefully and despite dire predictions Sweden's strategy has been distinctly more successful than predicted. Nowhere near the forecast 140k excess deaths.

Here is the economist report again.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker

It clearly shows the results for excess deaths for Sweden per 100k of population for this period is 94.

And it clearly shows that this figure betters Bulgaria, Lithuania, Russia, Poland, Belgium, Britain, Spain, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Portugal, Hungary, Netherlands, Italy, Austria and France. A total of 15 countries.

Even you have not denied that in comparison to the rest of Europe Sweden has done remarkable well.

The only real issue remaining is whether or not this comparison to the rest of Europe is legitimate or not. Should Sweden only be compared to Northern Europe?

Here is A detailed EU report on the state of the health of the EU citizenry.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/he...nce_rep_en.pdf

And here are some of the categories where all EU 27 are compared with each other statistically.

Trends in life expectancy
Inequalities in life expectancy
Healthy life expectancy at birth and at age 65
Main causes of mortality
Mortality from circulatory diseases
Mortality from cancer
Mortality from respiratory diseases
Infant health
Self-reported health and disability
Notified cases of vaccine-preventable diseases
New reported cases of HIV and tuberculosis
Cancer incidence
Diabetes prevalence
Dementia prevalence

Smoking among children
Smoking among adults
Alcohol consumption among children
Alcohol consumption among adults
Illicit drug consumption among children
Illicit drug consumption among adults
Obesity among children
Obesity among adults
Mortality due to air pollution and extreme weather conditions .

Avoidable mortality (preventable and amenable)
Childhood vaccinations
Patient experience with ambulatory care
Mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI)
Mortality following stroke
Waiting times for hip fracture surgery
Screening, survival and mortality for cervical cancer
Screening, survival and mortality for breast cancer
Survival and mortality for colorectal cancer
Late-diagnosed HIV and tuberculosis treatment outcomes
Healthcare-associated infections


Unmet health care needs
Financial burden of out-of-pocket expenditure
Population coverage for health care
Extent of health care coverage
Availability of doctors
Availability of nurses
Consultations with doctors
Availability and use of diagnostic technologies
Hospital beds and discharges
Waiting times for elective surgery

Cancers alone compared include, Breast, Respiratory, Kidney, Gastrointestinal, Reproductive organs, Bladder, Ovary, Uterus and cervical, Lung, Larynx, pharynx, Thyroid, Prostate, Rectum, Pancreas, Stomach, liver, anus, Colon, Testis, vulva, Skin

They're also all compared on Science and Technology, Environment and Energy, Transport, Foreign Trade, Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries, Social issues, Living Conditions and Labour Market in other reports.

Now, I cite this report as overwhelming evidence that as Sweden is regularly compared with everyone else on this huge number of diseases and issues, there is no substantive reason why Sweden should not be compared to all of Europe regarding covid-19. I think we can all assume that covid-19 will most certainly be included in the next one published or the one after.

If you have any science based evidence to refute this argument please provide it and let the science talk.

Otherwise the only logical conclusion is that you only have your opinion and that you are contesting this EU report based on your opinion only.

I thought it was just posts asking questions that you ignored, (other than than deleting question marks before copying and pasting them that is), but it seems you just ignore anything that does not fit your narrative before posting your often nonsense ramblings and false allegations.
Your latest tirade has not even a vague relationship to my post.


The only real issue in that tirade is that the link to the Economist report you posted did not make comparisons of excess Covid deaths to countries on a European wide basis, as you are repeatedly attempting to portray it did.
It did so on the regional basis of North, West, East and Central Europe. It even gave a reason for that in that the further East in Europe, the more lethal the level of deaths became.

It did not say what you are attempting to portray it said, that all European countries are comparable. It didn`t because it recognised and stated the severity of the pandemic and excess Covid deaths regionally was not comparable.


The report for Northern Europe was the only mention of Sweden in the written text where it stated that for the region of Northern Europe the exception for excess Covid deaths was Sweden.


Rather than attempting to show otherwise, the report you posted backs up the point many here have been making as to the countries Sweden should be compared too.

jimmycrackcorm

Sweden took an economic hit last year with a higher death toll than necessary because their people effectively implemented a lockdown by personal choice.
In contrast, Ireland had the strongest economic growth in the EU.

Damn Swedes must be very cold...

Ginger n Lemon

the incredible pudding wrote: »

It's really not that different than what was in place back last April tbh, other than being able to stay out in a pub past 8pm and only smaller gatherings of folks being allowed out in restaurants.

Unfortunately you speak the truth that isnt welcome in this thread.

But if you'd like to call Tegnell a granny killer you ll fit right in.

TonyMaloney

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Unfortunately you speak the truth that isnt welcome in this thread.

But if you'd like to call Tegnell a granny killer you ll fit right in.

Actually what your man said doesn't really check out.

I'm not calling him a liar, he might well be giving an honest account as he sees it. However the google mobility data says that not only are the Swedes acting significantly more safely than back in the early days of the pandemic, they've been doing so for a prolonged period of time that we've never seen from them before.

the incredible pudding

Which figures are you explicitly using for your point here?
There's not really a very significant change from last late-March - April to now on any of those figures that I can see (though the graph is quite noisy tbf). There's the expected spike in the summer when the weather was fantastic, people take long holidays and statistically things were far, far better anyhow. The other large dip is for the Christmas holidays were folks routinely take 4 weeks off here too. There's been snow this last week so most folks are just in their local parks with their kids sledding down hills.
Transit is a bit less busy as folks are being urged to avoid rush hour but anytime I've been out in Stockholm Central it's still busy enough tbh.

I would hope that folks are eating out less, they are being asked to do so but it's not like you can't do it. We've been asked to limit our contacts since last spring, they're just asking more sternly now. I still walk past the restaurant on the way to my girlfriend's every other day and it's nearly always around half full (they are at least doing a good job of distancing the tables).

Ginger n Lemon

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Which figures are you explicitly using for your point here?
There's not really a very significant change from last late-March - April to now on any of those figures that I can see (though the graph is quite noisy tbf). There's the expected spike in the summer when the weather was fantastic, people take long holidays and statistically things were far, far better anyhow. The other large dip is for the Christmas holidays were folks routinely take 4 weeks off here too. There's been snow this last week so most folks are just in their local parks with their kids sledding down hills.
Transit is a bit less busy as folks are being urged to avoid rush hour but anytime I've been out in Stockholm Central it's still busy enough tbh.

I would hope that folks are eating out less, they are being asked to do so but it's not like you can't do it. We've been asked to limit our contacts since last spring, they're just asking more sternly now. I still walk past the restaurant on the way to my girlfriend's every other day and it's nearly always around half full (they are at least doing a good job of distancing the tables).

Our restaurants have been closed for 4 out of last 5 months

Its okay, we eat takeaway and cook at home. Living :pac:

j@utis

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Sweden took an economic hit last year with a higher death toll than necessary because their people effectively implemented a lockdown by personal choice.
In contrast, Ireland had the strongest economic growth in the EU.

Damn Swedes must be very cold...

If you read it more carefully, it's not all that rosy.

CalamariFritti

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Actually what your man said doesn't really check out.

I'm not calling him a liar, he might well be giving an honest account as he sees it. However the google mobility data says that not only are the Swedes acting significantly more safely than back in the early days of the pandemic, they've been doing so for a prolonged period of time that we've never seen from them before.

Whats the point you're trying to make? That people dont go in the park as much in winter?

Ginger n Lemon

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Actually what your man said doesn't really check out.

I'm not calling him a liar, he might well be giving an honest account as he sees it. However the google mobility data says that not only are the Swedes acting significantly more safely than back in the early days of the pandemic, they've been doing so for a prolonged period of time that we've never seen from them before.

Google mobility data?

Is this a new fetish now or? I suppose Google says so so it must be right?

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Google mobility data?

Is this a new fetish now or? I suppose Google says so so it must be right?

well it's a lot more objective that some horsesh1t merchants here....

it's fairly simple stuff - the vast majority of people have phones connected to cell towers so mobility is easily shown.

like the big spike in mobility in Ireland in December which led to huge case numbers increased and subsequent deaths

there are mobility graphs for that also

humberklog

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Which figures are you explicitly using for your point here?
There's not really a very significant change from last late-March - April to now on any of those figures that I can see (though the graph is quite noisy tbf). There's the expected spike in the summer when the weather was fantastic, people take long holidays and statistically things were far, far better anyhow. The other large dip is for the Christmas holidays were folks routinely take 4 weeks off here too. There's been snow this last week so most folks are just in their local parks with their kids sledding down hills.
Transit is a bit less busy as folks are being urged to avoid rush hour but anytime I've been out in Stockholm Central it's still busy enough tbh.

I would hope that folks are eating out less, they are being asked to do so but it's not like you can't do it. We've been asked to limit our contacts since last spring, they're just asking more sternly now. I still walk past the restaurant on the way to my girlfriend's every other day and it's nearly always around half full (they are at least doing a good job of distancing the tables).

Thanks for posting here, I like hearing about different country's responses from people with first hand experience. It's hard to (for me) to take in the data seperatly from the level of satisfaction with the handling of the situation within the general population.

How are the people you'd be in contact with feelings on the handling of the situation? From i can read and hear the government still largely have the population on board. Are there significant numbers voicing unhappiness or regret? Are there public demonstrations of discontent or shows of descent within the government, unions, public service bodies?

cnocbui

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Which figures are you explicitly using for your point here?
There's not really a very significant change from last late-March - April to now on any of those figures that I can see (though the graph is quite noisy tbf). There's the expected spike in the summer when the weather was fantastic, people take long holidays and statistically things were far, far better anyhow. The other large dip is for the Christmas holidays were folks routinely take 4 weeks off here too. There's been snow this last week so most folks are just in their local parks with their kids sledding down hills.
Transit is a bit less busy as folks are being urged to avoid rush hour but anytime I've been out in Stockholm Central it's still busy enough tbh.

I would hope that folks are eating out less, they are being asked to do so but it's not like you can't do it. We've been asked to limit our contacts since last spring, they're just asking more sternly now. I still walk past the restaurant on the way to my girlfriend's every other day and it's nearly always around half full (they are at least doing a good job of distancing the tables).

Ireland places a far greater importance on you getting an NCT car inspection done than on your kids getting an education. Fantastic government we have here.

Sweden eyes tighter Covid measures as third wave looms - 17/2/2021
- Government proposal would close shopping centres, gyms and restaurants for the first time


https://www.ft.com/content/ccb52f41-72f1-4883-861d-f59745e25e7d

Sweden has warned that it might have to close businesses and shut down parts of society as unease grows in Stockholm at the possibility of a third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The centre-left government on Wednesday put forward a proposal that for the first time would allow it to close shopping centres, gyms, and restaurants and to fine those who fail to obey the rules SKr2,000 ($240).

“There is a significant risk of a third wave of infection . . . It can be necessary to shut down parts of Sweden,” said social minister Lena Hallengren.

The country, which stood out internationally because of its refusal to introduce a lockdown, has since December brought in more and more restrictions.

Coronavirus cases per capita have ticked up again in recent days, following repeated warnings from health authorities that a third wave was likely. The number of cases and deaths per capita remain far above the highest levels recorded in neighbouring Norway and Finland.

Infections are increasing in six of Sweden’s 18 regions with a particularly sharp rise linked to the construction of a large electric battery factory in the north of the country

Boggles

Central Sweden confirms cluster outbreak of coronavirus variant first found in South Africa

Coronavirus: Western Swedish region steps up face mask recommendations to curb new outbreaks

Even Tegnell is worried.

charlie14

Boggles wrote: »

Central Sweden confirms cluster outbreak of coronavirus variant first found in South Africa

Coronavirus: Western Swedish region steps up face mask recommendations to curb new outbreaks

Even Tegnell is worried.

There appears to be serious concern there that they are about to suffer another wave. Cases had dropped to a level and stagnated but are now rising again. Karin Tegmark Wisell of the PHA said that it was "worrying that the spread of infection hasn`t continue to fall and that we see a rise in reported case".

As to why that was happening she said "there are several signs that compliance as less good than earlier" and that more people are working from the workplace and that all 21 regions are reporting low compliance on face mask wearing during rush hours.

Not overly surprised on face masks with all the confusing messaging from the PHA on face masks, but with numbers again on the rise, worry of another wave and with a cluster of cases of the South African variant that are not traceable to travel, doing nothing until March 11th. looks like Russian roulette.

cnocbui

Boggles wrote: »

Central Sweden confirms cluster outbreak of coronavirus variant first found in South Africa

Coronavirus: Western Swedish region steps up face mask recommendations to curb new outbreaks

Even Tegnell is worried.

Every government is soiling it's pants over this new variant because it's vaccine resistant and they have been using working vaccines as the distant beacon of hope to justify lockdowns and to demonise and browbeat those who think lockdowns wont work.

And there you have it:

Doctors warn that Covid will become endemic and people need to learn to live with it
Sam Meredith 5 days ago
Fact check: Trump surgeon general initially dismissed mask-wearing, but then…
Proud Boy’s attorneys argue Trump to blame for deadly Capitol insurrection

More and more physicians and public health officials are warning that even with the mass rollout of vaccines, Covid may become endemic.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/doctors-warn-covid-will-become-endemic-and-people-need-to-learn-to-live-with-it/ar-BB1dCMBV

It's like the cold war. One side will run out of resources before the other and will lose. SARS-2 doesn't need money or a functioning economy.

Bit cynical

Quick update on daily deaths compared to the EU as a whole.


Sweden were above the EU average for deaths until about early August of last when EU deaths started to overtake them. This situation continued and by the start of the year the EU as a whole had more deaths per capita than Sweden. In the new year, Sweden did have a surge and for a time had more daily deaths than the EU but in the last week or so Sweden's rate has dropped considerably.

This means that although Sweden have been edging ahead cumulative deaths (see below) recently, the EU is likely to catch up in the next few weeks and in the end will probably end up with more deaths per capita than Sweden.

TonyMaloney

Bit cynical wrote: »

Quick update on daily deaths compared to the EU as a whole.

Sweden were above the EU average for deaths until about early August of last when EU deaths started to overtake them. This situation continued and by the start of the year the EU as a whole had more deaths per capita than Sweden. In the new year, Sweden did have a surge and for a time had more daily deaths than the EU but in the last week or so Sweden's rate has dropped considerably.

This means that although Sweden have been edging ahead cumulative deaths (see below) recently, the EU is likely to catch up in the next few weeks and in the end will probably end up with more deaths per capita than Sweden.

There's so much wrong here that I can't allow myself the time to get into it all.

I'll just point out that Sweden are in the EU. The EU line wouldn't be so steep if you removed the Swedish data.

Bit cynical

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'll just point out that Sweden are in the EU. The EU line wouldn't be so steep if you removed the Swedish data.

If that is the main objection then it is easily dismissed. Such comparisons of a part to the whole are common and perfectly valid e.g. the murder rate for a particular US state vs the murder rate for the US as a whole.

sheepysheep

Bit cynical wrote: »

Quick update on daily deaths compared to the EU as a whole.


Sweden were above the EU average for deaths until about early August of last when EU deaths started to overtake them. This situation continued and by the start of the year the EU as a whole had more deaths per capita than Sweden. In the new year, Sweden did have a surge and for a time had more daily deaths than the EU but in the last week or so Sweden's rate has dropped considerably.

This means that although Sweden have been edging ahead cumulative deaths (see below) recently, the EU is likely to catch up in the next few weeks and in the end will probably end up with more deaths per capita than Sweden.

You always provided excellent graphs to show these stats. Thanks for that. It certainly help simplify the data.

It interesting to see how closely correlated they have been for the last 100 days.

In another couple of months all the excess death data will also hopefully be available for comparison which will make for interesting viewing.

The 2 year average death figure will also be interesting in 12 months time.

sheepysheep

TonyMaloney wrote: »

There's so much wrong here that I can't allow myself the time to get into it all.

I'll just point out that Sweden are in the EU. The EU line wouldn't be so steep if you removed the Swedish data.

Sweden isn't in the EU apparently.

It's in 'The Scandinavia,' by all accounts one of the most unusual and incomparable regions on the planet.

Bit cynical

sheepysheep wrote: »

Sweden isn't in the EU.

It's in 'The Scandinavia,' apparently one of the most unusual and incomparable regions on the planet.

It is not in the Eurozone but it is in the EU.

I agree with point about the Scandinavia. Critics were happy enough with comparisons between Sweden and the EU as a whole early on when it suited them. It was really only when the EU started to catch up with Sweden in deaths per capita that critics moved on to comparisons with countries with the lowest deaths, such as Finland. Because Sweden had higher deaths than the very lowest in the EU, their policy (in the view of critics) had failed.

Equally invalid is comparing Sweden to the highest deaths countries like Belgium but this is comparatively rare. The fairest is comparing Sweden to the larger free movement bloc, the EU.

Arghus

sheepysheep wrote: »

Sweden isn't in the EU apparently.

It's in 'The Scandinavia,' by all accounts one of the most unusual and incomparable regions on the planet.

Sweden has been in The EU since 1995.

sheepysheep

Boggles wrote: »

Central Sweden confirms cluster outbreak of coronavirus variant first found in South Africa

Coronavirus: Western Swedish region steps up face mask recommendations to curb new outbreaks

Even Tegnell is worried.

The trouble with this is that it's been declared to be happening by the newspapers numerous times before.

According to some on here they entered a lockdown months ago.

There were also sensationalist reports of hospitals being overrun, patients having to be transferred to Norway and predictions of 400 deaths a day.

We'll have to wait and see what happens. It's just click bait until it does.

sheepysheep

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is not in the Eurozone but it is in the EU.

I agree with point about the Scandinavia. Critics were happy enough with comparisons between Sweden and the EU as a whole early on when it suited them. It was really only when the EU started to catch up with Sweden in deaths per capita that critics moved on to comparisons with countries with the lowest deaths, such as Finland. Because Sweden had higher deaths than the very lowest in the EU, their policy (in the view of critics) had failed.

Equally invalid is comparing Sweden to the highest deaths countries like Belgium but this is comparatively rare. The fairest is comparing Sweden to the larger free movement bloc, the EU.

Was just joking about the EU. Edited it after to make it obvious.

sheepysheep

Arghus wrote: »

Sweden has been in The EU since 1995.

Yes. Well aware. Was just a joke at the expense of some posters who think it shouldn't be compared to the rest of the EU.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

If that is the main objection then it is easily dismissed. Such comparisons of a part to the whole are common and perfectly valid e.g. the murder rate for a particular US state vs the murder rate for the US as a whole.

To do a comparison of those US states then would you not require a certain level of commonality for it to be comparible ?
Gun control restrictions have a bearing on firearm fatalities and homicides.


A University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine report published by The Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery March 6th 2019 found that ten of the states with the most restrictive gun control laws were in the Northeast. Seven of the ten had the lowest overall US firearm fatalities and homicides. Connecticut was lowest being bordered by three of the other nine.


In the Economist report posted here they did not regard European countries on a one fits all basis. They recognised the different geographical areas and severity of the virus going eastwards in Europe, and compared excess Covid deaths on those commonalities. From that they noted that for Northern Europe Sweden`s excess deaths were an exception.