Sweden avoiding lockdown

sheepysheep

Boggles wrote: »

There is always a lag of weeks.

If you are judging what may happen on current hospitalizations you are doing it wrong.

Belgium tried to do that way and they overwhelmed their ICU's.

It's the people in charge over there who are talking about the start of a third wave, it's not paper talk, the infection rate backs it up.

It's been blamed on fatigue with restrictions.

That's the thing about restrictions, fatigue will set it no matter what they are.

Largely Voluntary or Largely Enforced.

Doesn't look like their planning any change yet anyway.

We'll have to wait and see how the S.A variant plays out.

STOCKHOLM, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Sweden's government on Thursday proposed expanding its legal powers to close businesses and shut parts of society should a third wave of the novel coronavirus hit the country, though it said it saw no need to impose the curbs as yet.

Sweden has avoided the kind of strict lockdowns adopted across much of Europe since last spring, but has gradually tightened restrictions, especially after infections surged in autumn last year.

Parliament has already passed a pandemic law to give authorities widespread powers to shut malls and shopping centres, but the government said it now wanted to be able to close hairdressers, gyms and other businesses should Sweden be hit by a new surge in COVID-19 infections

"The decision today is not that we are going to shut down Sweden, but that we are giving ourselves the tools to respond should such a situation develop," Health and Social Affairs Minister Lena Hallengren told a news conference.

Worries about a third wave have risen in recent days as the rate of new infections has inched higher after falling since the end of last year.

Sweden has also seen an increase in the so-called British mutation of the virus, thought to be more contagious than other variants, and vaccinations has been slow to ramp up amid delivery delays.

Hallengren said the government might need to act quickly, even though the current increase in new cases did not warrant it. "Currently, that is not our judgement, but clearly we are not planning to wait until it is too late," she added.

Sweden, with a population of around 10 million, has registered more than 615,000 COVID cases and over 12,400 deaths, a rate per capita many times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours, but lower than several European countries that opted for lockdowns.

https://news.trust.org/item/20210217080646-qw4xm

charlie14

sheepysheep wrote: »

Well, you're declared it to be in lockdown for months.

However, someone else just posted a report that it might be going into lockdown soon.

Can't be both.

There is no universal definition of lockdown, just different levels. Ireland for example has 5 levels.
Uppsala declared it was using local lockdown back in October. Other regions followed Uppsala`s example shortly afterwards.
What the Swedish government are now talking about the possible need for are just a stricter level. It sounds more or less the same as Ireland`s level 5.

sheepysheep

charlie14 wrote: »

There is no universal definition of lockdown, just different levels.

Yes, You're correct there. Sweden has always had some type restrictions right from the start.

charlie14

sheepysheep wrote: »

Yes, You're correct there. Sweden has always had some type restrictions right from the start.

I didn`t say restrictions. I specifically said lockdown.
You just` childishly cut my post from all of 3 lines to 1 to make it appear otherwise.

charlie14

sheepysheep wrote: »

Can you provide any quote in the report which explicitly declares that Sweden cannot be compared with all of Europe? Yes/No.

If Yes, please provide it.

If No, then it is only your assumption that Sweden cannot be compared with Europe. Because you don't respect science you'll go with deflection and assumption.

However, if you could provide the research report upon which you based your pre-Economist report opinion please enlighten us all.

I'm not expecting any report from you btw. Unless you have something from The Sun.

BTW this is a report which you have consistently refused to acknowledge which clearly shows that Sweden can be compared with the EU27 on a load of matters.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/state/docs/2018_healthatglance_rep_en.pdf

Try and address this report this time and please debunk its OECD veracity.

In all the time I have been on Boards.ie I can honestly say I have never engaged with a poster whose entire stock-in-trade is waffle, attempts at "look over there" distractions and a determination not to answer anything they are asked.
The Economist report you posted only compares Sweden with the rest of Northern Europe. As I said earlier, if you wish to hoop around finding countries that suit your narrative away with you. Just stop attempting to pretend that is what the report does.

Unless you are pre pubescent perhaps you should consider dropping the childish little digs. If you are then I understand. I coach under 12`s

"However, if you could provide the research report upon which you based your pre-Economist report please enlighten us all".

I am not expression any "pre-Economist report" opinion .i am simply pointing out what the report actually states in relation to Sweden. You on the other hand are attempting to make selective comparisons that fit with your narrative which the report does not do.
The only opinion I have on the report is that it backs up what many here have been saying for a long time. That when it comes to Sweden the comparisons are more applicable to it`s northern neighbours.

On your link. I have mentioned your attempts at" look over there" distractions on numerous occasions, so you should know by now it`s not a game I play.

DylanJM

charlie14 wrote: »

There is no universal definition of lockdown, just different levels. Ireland for example has 5 levels.
Uppsala declared it was using local lockdown back in October. Other regions followed Uppsala`s example shortly afterwards.
What the Swedish government are now talking about the possible need for are just a stricter level. It sounds more or less the same as Ireland`s level 5.

I think if Sweden managed to avoid going into full lockdown in after Christmas I think it's unlikely they will between now and the summer. Their cases are pretty flat the last 30 days at a 7 day average of 3,000ish and are looking to have to full adult population vaccinated by end of June.

99nsr125

CNN comparing lockdown to no lockdown between California and Florida

Both have similar statistics despite Florida having significantly higher amounts of older people and only light restrictions

Just quoted a WSJ article citing underlying nationwide immunity of 55%

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

CNN comparing lockdown to no lockdown between California and Florida

Both have similar statistics despite Florida having significantly higher amounts of older people and only light restrictions

Just quoted a WSJ article citing underlying nationwide immunity of 55%

What we do know is by April the US expect to have used 250 million vaccines vaccines with 150 million people vaccinated. Population of the US is 331 million so that 150 million is 46%. To date there have been 28 million confirmed cases, 8.5% of the population. By April 46% will have immunity from vaccines with a possible extra 8.5% being immune due to them being infected even if it is unknown how long that immunity lasts.

Anything else is just conjecture for the reason that the author states himself. In conversation with medical experts they have often dismissed natural immunity because lack of data.

What the author did to reach his 55% immunity figure was take the confirmed case number of 28 million, assume the number infected is 6.5 times higher, multiplied by 650% and got 182 mllion. 55% of the population.
Anywhere we have seen assumed infections being used to predict natural immunity they have been incorrect.


For Manaus, one of the hardest hit areas of Brazil, researchers predicted the same with only a 50% increase of confirmed cases to come up with their infection rate and their belief they had reached herd immunity. Subsequent events show they hadn`t

The article even mentioned Sweden`s Karolinska Institute where presumed infection rates were used predicting herd immunity for Stockholm and later for high immunity levels for Sweden. I don`t think there can be any questions on how either of those worked out at this stage.

That author is entitled to his opinion, but I cannot see anywhere, other than perhaps a very few countries ruled by nutcases going for natural herd immunity rather than herd immunity through vaccination.

charlie14

DylanJM wrote: »

I think if Sweden managed to avoid going into full lockdown in after Christmas I think it's unlikely they will between now and the summer. Their cases are pretty flat the last 30 days at a 7 day average of 3,000ish and are looking to have to full adult population vaccinated by end of June.

With them having a side deal with AZ I was expecting Sweden to be one of the front runners in vaccinations, but like everywhere else the AZ vaccine has caused them problems and they are only at the same level of vaccinations as Ireland, so I would have my doubts on the end of June.



Sweden may or may not go into full lockdown but there does seem to be very genuine worries that new cases only reaching a level stalled and are now on the increase according to their authorities.
Compliance by their own admission is not what it was and the level of mask wearing is very low. If they are going to full lockdown I would not see it being before March 11th. so in the meatime the expressions of concern may result in the case numbers dropping.

wakka12

99nsr125 wrote: »

CNN comparing lockdown to no lockdown between California and Florida

Both have similar statistics despite Florida having significantly higher amounts of older people and only light restrictions

Just quoted a WSJ article citing underlying nationwide immunity of 55%

That seems extremely unlikely, there are countries like Mexico and Russia with literally double the excess deaths of USA per capita. Are we to believe these countries have seen near 100% rate of infection?

Real Donald Trump

99nsr125 wrote: »

CNN comparing lockdown to no lockdown between California and Florida

Both have similar statistics despite Florida having significantly higher amounts of older people and only light restrictions

Just quoted a WSJ article citing underlying nationwide immunity of 55%

CNN removed the daily death tracker the day after Biden was inaugurated, they only put it up now when they are talking about Covid news, before that it was up 24/7 , interesting :rolleyes: disgrace of a network tbh

biko

DylanJM wrote: »

Why are Sweden only ever compared to their neighbors? How do they stack up against the rest of the EU?

Anthony Fauci, White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, agrees with me and some other posters here that Sweden should be compared to its neighbours

But I am not going to let Senator Paul get away with saying things that are cherry-picked data.
And he compared us to Sweden, and said, “Sweden let everybody get infected and they have much lower death rate than us.”

And I say, “Sir, with all due respect, you’re comparing apples and oranges, you should not be comparing Sweden with the United States, you should be comparing Sweden with demographically similar populations, like the Scandinavian countries such as Norway and Denmark.”

And Sweden has done much less well, particularly regarding deaths, compared to the other countries.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/why-anthony-fauci-happy-being-skunk-coronavirus-task-force

growleaves

I'm reading a novel about the Cold War atm and this description of the Sino-Soviet split (from the Russian pov) reminds me of the attitude toward Sweden now:

Technical deviation of a Socialist partner

99nsr125

charlie14 wrote: »

What we do know is by April the US expect to have used 250 million vaccines vaccines with 150 million people vaccinated. Population of the US is 331 million so that 150 million is 46%. To date there have been 28 million confirmed cases, 8.5% of the population. By April 46% will have immunity from vaccines with a possible extra 8.5% being immune due to them being infected even if it is unknown how long that immunity lasts.

Anything else is just conjecture for the reason that the author states himself. In conversation with medical experts they have often dismissed natural immunity because lack of data.

What the author did to reach his 55% immunity figure was take the confirmed case number of 28 million, assume the number infected is 6.5 times higher, multiplied by 650% and got 182 mllion. 55% of the population.
Anywhere we have seen assumed infections being used to predict natural immunity they have been incorrect.


For Manaus, one of the hardest hit areas of Brazil, researchers predicted the same with only a 50% increase of confirmed cases to come up with their infection rate and their belief they had reached herd immunity. Subsequent events show they hadn`t

The article even mentioned Sweden`s Karolinska Institute where presumed infection rates were used predicting herd immunity for Stockholm and later for high immunity levels for Sweden. I don`t think there can be any questions on how either of those worked out at this stage.

That author is entitled to his opinion, but I cannot see anywhere, other than perhaps a very few countries ruled by nutcases going for natural herd immunity rather than herd immunity through vaccination.

So you spent all of those paragraphs not addressing the article or comparison between states, good job

"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."

99nsr125

wakka12 wrote: »

That seems extremely unlikely, there are countries like Mexico and Russia with literally double the excess deaths of USA per capita. Are we to believe these countries have seen near 100% rate of infection?

That's entirely possible but I didn't reference them. A particular country is far more homogeneous on every metric internally allowing better comparisons

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

So you spent all of those paragraphs not addressing the article or comparison between states, good job

"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."

Two states that as the crow flies are 2,300 miles apart with coastlines on two different oceans. Tbh I have better for doing with my time than chasing you down another of your rabbit holes.Your herd immunity warren is more than enough.
Even on that you are now mixing your apples and your oranges where you do not seem to know the difference between IFR and CFR.



The WSJ opinion piece on natural herd immunity has nothing to do with infections. The author used case numbers, (and for reasons as mysterious as your "about 0.23%"), multiplied by 6.5.
Manaus went with 1.5 and were still wrong. Sweden used who knows what multiple and got it wrong for natural immunity for Stockholm and got it wrong on having a higher level of immunity nationally than others for this wave.

While using case numbers multiplied by whatever number these people feel will give them the number they wish to see is guesswork, it at least is a mathematical formula. One based on infections of "about 0.23%" is not mathematics. It`s magical thinking.

cnocbui

Your posts singlehandedly comprise about a fifth of the total on this thread, but you don't have time. I have my doubts, but if you say so...

Ginger n Lemon

cnocbui wrote: »

Your posts singlehandedly comprise about a fifth of the total on this thread, but you don't have time. I have my doubts, but if you say so...

:D:D

:pac:

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Your posts singlehandedly comprise about a fifth of the total on this thread, but you don't have time. I have my doubts, but if you say so...

If you have read any of my posts then you will know I do not play the "look over there" game of distracting from Sweden with posters who refuse to look at what is happening next door to Sweden.
Especially a posters whose main interest has always been naturally acquired herd immunity on a thread relating to Sweden.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

:D:D

:pac:

Every time I see a post of yours I get a chuckle myself.:)


With the volume of predictions and hero worshiping puff pieces you had here in the past, it`s amusing to remember that for all that effort you still could not get anything right.


:pac::pac::pac:

Ginger n Lemon

cnocbui wrote: »

Your posts singlehandedly comprise about a fifth of the total on this thread, but you don't have time. I have my doubts, but if you say so...

+ 2 more posts today minimum.

Hes on course for 2/5 of all posts in this thread being his. Talk about taking over the debate :pac:

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

+ 2 more posts today minimum.

Hes on course for 2/5 of all posts in this thread being his. Talk about taking over the debate :pac:

You were having a fair shot at attempting to take over this thread yourself until your little heroes were shown to have feet of clay and all your predictions were shown to be laughable.


Not surprisingly we haven`t seen much from you since. At least nothing of any value to the debate. :pac:

humberklog

charlie14 wrote: »

If you have read any of my posts then you will know I do not play the "look over there" game of distracting from Sweden with posters who refuse to look at what is happening next door to Sweden.
Especially a posters whose main interest has always been naturally acquired herd immunity on a thread relating to Sweden.

I don't think it's the case at all that there's a refusal by posters to consider Sweden in context with Scandinavian countries.
There is a cohort here that only want to phrase Sweden in a Scandanavian context. And while you say you're not a "look over there" merchant your posting comes across as "only look here".

It's a very myopic way of considering one country's response to a pandemic.

FintanMcluskey

Some hard hitting scenes in the below video guys

Similar to the opening scene in Saving Private Ryan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wQnR_JHjUU

Thankfully Ireland didn’t see scenes like that

We flattened that economic and mental well-being curve immediately

cnocbui

My god! There actually people alive in the world, living a life! When is the next plane? I want to leave this hole.

peter kern

cnocbui wrote: »

My god! There actually people alive in the world, living a life! When is the next plane? I want to leave this hole.

tomorrow at 12.25

charlie14

humberklog wrote: »

I don't think it's the case at all that there's a refusal by posters to consider Sweden in context with Scandinavian countries.
There is a cohort here that only want to phrase Sweden in a Skandanavian contest. And while you say you're not a "look over there" merchant your posting comes across as "only look here".

It's a very myopic way of considering one country's response to a pandemic.

It`s more a case of see no evil with some here than myopia. Still posting merrily away as if Sweden`s herd immunity strategy was a roaring success



That "look over here" takes in a pretty wide area. The Economist report looked at Northern Europe and found Sweden`s excess deaths an "exception" compared to others in the region.



More apt imo than attempting to make comparisons to two U.S. states 2,300 miles apart with coastlines on two different oceans and somehow link them with a country in Northern Europe.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Some hard hitting scenes in the below video guys

Similar to the opening scene in Saving Private Ryan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wQnR_JHjUU

Thankfully Ireland didn’t see scenes like that

We flattened that economic and mental well-being curve immediately

Thankfully we didn`t Fintan.

They really are crap at social distancing and mask wearing, although thankfully in spite of their Public Health Authority messing on face masks, the regional authorities are getting the message.
Economically Sweden is not projected to come out of this any better than anywhere else. But you already know that.

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

Thankfully we didn`t Fintan.

They really are crap at social distancing and mask wearing, although thankfully in spite of their Public Health Authority messing on face masks, the regional authorities are getting the message.
Economically Sweden is not projected to come out of this any better than anywhere else. But you already know that.

Greater social distancing than I observed with secondary students here a few months ago, hanging around outside an Aldi and a Lidl, where the mask wearing was literally zero.

The Swedish government reported on Wednesday that it expects the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grown by 3% in 2021, compared to 4.1% announced in September's report.

The underlying details of the publication revealed that the economy is now forecasted to contract by 2.9% in 2020. .

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-2021-gdp-growth-seen-at-30-vs-september-forecast-of-41-202012161212

New Zealand is 'projected' to take more than three times the economic hit Sweden is.

New Zealand's gross domestic product (GDP) is now seen contracting by 7.2% in the fiscal year March 2021, according to the NZ Institute of Economic Research (NZIER).
Key points

Consensus Forecasts for GDP have been revised up for the year to March 2021, as the New Zealand economy has turned out more resilient than expected.

The economy is likely to expand by 6.7% in the fiscal year of March 2022.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealands-gdp-to-contract-72-in-fiscal-year-2021-nzier-202009140047

So you're spoofing again.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Greater social distancing than I observed with secondary students here a few months ago, hanging around outside an Aldi and a Lidl, where the mask wearing was literally zero.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-2021-gdp-growth-seen-at-30-vs-september-forecast-of-41-202012161212

New Zealand is 'projected' to take more than three times the economic hit Sweden is.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealands-gdp-to-contract-72-in-fiscal-year-2021-nzier-202009140047

So you're spoofing again.

You went half way around the world to find that


Rather than accuse me of spoofing perhaps you should have read both links before posting.
Sweden`s GDP is now expected to grow by just 3% rather than the 4.1% forecast in September for 2021 after a 2.9% contraction for 2020. A real growth of just 0.1% by end of 2021.
While New Zealand`s GDP is expected to contract by 7.2%, within the year it is expected to expand by 6.7%. A contraction of just 0.5%


You may be one of those people who know the price of everything and the value of nothing, but for myself a country that has almost half the population of Sweden,with 2,357 cases and 26 deaths compared to Sweden`s 631,166 cases and 12,649 deaths, for a 0.6% difference in GDP, (if I was to put a price on a human life), would look like very good value.