Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Greater social distancing than I observed with secondary students here a few months ago, hanging around outside an Aldi and a Lidl, where the mask wearing was literally zero.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-2021-gdp-growth-seen-at-30-vs-september-forecast-of-41-202012161212

New Zealand is 'projected' to take more than three times the economic hit Sweden is.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealands-gdp-to-contract-72-in-fiscal-year-2021-nzier-202009140047

So you're spoofing again.

You went half way around the world to find that


Rather than accuse me of spoofing perhaps you should have read both links before posting.
Sweden`s GDP is now expected to grow by just 3% rather than the 4.1% forecast in September for 2021 after a 2.9% contraction for 2020. A real growth of just 0.1% by end of 2021.
While New Zealand`s GDP is expected to contract by 7.2%, within the year it is expected to expand by 6.7%. A contraction of just 0.5%


You may be one of those people who know the price of everything and the value of nothing, but for myself a country that has almost half the population of Sweden,with 2,357 cases and 26 deaths compared to Sweden`s 631,166 cases and 12,649 deaths, for a 0.6% difference in GDP, (if I was to put a price on a human life), would look like very good value.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

They really are crap at social distancing and mask wearing, although thankfully in spite of their Public Health Authority messing on face masks, the regional authorities are getting the message.

I thought the pro-lockdown narrative about Sweden was that they didn't need enforced measures because the Swedes were naturally socially distancing and obeyed all the recommendations. This was the reason that they were mid-table for the EU and did not have the multiple of deaths earlier predicted.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I thought the pro-lockdown narrative about Sweden was that they didn't need enforced measures because the Swedes were naturally socially distancing and obeyed all the recommendations. This was the reason that they were mid-table for the EU and did not have the multiple of deaths earlier predicted.

That was mainly the narrative from those who supported the Swedish strategy. That they were so good at following recommendations they would never need to use any level of lockdown.
If that video clip is anything to go by that was a fallacy.

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

You went half way around the world to find that


Rather than accuse me of spoofing perhaps you should have read both links before posting.
Sweden`s GDP is now expected to grow by just 3% rather than the 4.1% forecast in September for 2021 after a 2.9% contraction for 2020. A real growth of just 0.1% by end of 2021.
While New Zealand`s GDP is expected to contract by 7.2%, within the year it is expected to expand by 6.7%. A contraction of just 0.5%


You may be one of those people who know the price of everything and the value of nothing, but for myself a country that has almost half the population of Sweden,with 2,357 cases and 26 deaths compared to Sweden`s 631,166 cases and 12,649 deaths, for a 0.6% difference in GDP, (if I was to put a price on a human life), would look like very good value.

I'm hoping to emigrate to NZ, so it's on my radar in terms of data. You are using your unique way of interpreting data again. Good to see you maintaining that consistency. Keep it up.

Knowing the price of things has proven profitable. If I didn't know the value of things, I wouldn't be looking to trade up by emigrating.

99nsr125

charlie14 wrote: »

Two states that as the crow flies are 2,300 miles apart with coastlines on two different oceans..

But they are in the same country so what comparing one state to another in the *same * country doesn't credit time now. Is it because they don't share common health, education or resources, no wait . . .

The numbers don't stack up for you and that's particularly inconvenient. Intensely so now that the news is covering as I type the exploding waiting lists and the "tsunami" of medical pain ahead caused by lockdown.

charlie14 wrote: »

Tbh I have better for doing with my time chasing you down another of your rabbit holes

You mean comparing lockdown v no lockdown. That's the entire premise of the thread.

charlie14 wrote: »

Your herd immunity warren is more than enough.

Herd immunity is how we eventually live with Covid otherwise there is only ongoing imprisonment in your own home

charlie14 wrote: »

Even on that you are now mixing your apples and your oranges where you do not seem to know the difference between IFR and CFR.

You're painfully hilarious sometimes, the source for that quote is
"Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine"

Perhaps he is right and you are wrong.

charlie14 wrote: »

The WSJ opinion piece on natural herd immunity has nothing to do with infections. The author used case numbers, (and for reasons as mysterious as your "about 0.23%"), multiplied by 6.5.

Are you seriously saying, herd immunity, is not related to infections. That is so removed from reality as to be delusional.

The news just finished, quoting a million people will be on waiting lists a doubling of the numbers, do you know the mortality rate for waiting lists is aggregated at 1%. That'll be an excess death rate of 5,000 for years to come which is more than all the Covid deaths to date.

Years of this pain we've brought on ourselves, it's shameful

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

I'm hoping to emigrate to NZ, so it's on my radar in terms of data. You are using your unique way of interpreting data again. Good to see you maintaining that consistency. Keep it up.

Knowing the price of things has proven profitable. If I didn't know the value of things, I wouldn't be looking to trade up by emigrating.

There was nothing unique about interpreting that data. Like practically all data it was just very basic mathematics.


For somebody that cannot wait to get out of Ireland because of lockdown measure, you better hope there is no other pandemics if you do get to NZ. Ireland`s is a teddy bears picnic compared to theirs.

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

Herd immunity is how we eventually live with Covid otherwise there is only ongoing imprisonment in your own home




You're painfully hilarious sometimes, the source for that quote is
"Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine"

Perhaps he is right and you are wrong.




Are you seriously saying, herd immunity, is not related to infections. That is so removed from reality as to be delusional.

The news just finished, quoting a million people will be on waiting lists a doubling of the numbers, do you know the mortality rate for waiting lists is aggregated at 1%. That'll be an excess death rate of 5,000 for years to come which is more than all the Covid deaths to date.

Years of this pain we've brought on ourselves, it's shameful

Which herd immunity. Through vaccination or naturally acquired.?For me it`s not going to happen without vaccine.You on the other hand.....?


Dr.Makary admitted that even a majority of those in his own profession do not agree with him. Hard to blame them when his whole theory is based on taking case numbers and multiplying them by a factor of 6.5 with no explanation of where the 6.5 came from.

Your Dr Makary didn`t use infection numbers. He used case numbers.
So did Manaus, Sweden in two instances,and all multiplied with varying stab in the dark numbers and all got it wrong.


Btw, you talk a lot about infection numbers. Can you tell me what the infection rate for any country is, (and I`m not talking an "about" number), and how that number was arrived at ?

More guesswork on future deaths without even the basic understanding that in health care like everything else primary issues take preference over secondary issues. Sweden`s health care, like everywhere else, did not carry on as normal without being effected.

sheepysheep

charlie14 wrote: »

I didn`t say restrictions. I specifically said lockdown.
You just` childishly cut my post from all of 3 lines to 1 to make it appear otherwise.

I'd say many people would assume that I'd just cut 2 lines of crap.

sheepysheep

charlie14 wrote: »

In all the time I have been on Boards.ie I can honestly say I have never engaged with a poster whose entire stock-in-trade is waffle, attempts at "look over there" distractions and a determination not to answer anything they are asked.
The Economist report you posted only compares Sweden with the rest of Northern Europe. As I said earlier, if you wish to hoop around finding countries that suit your narrative away with you. Just stop attempting to pretend that is what the report does.

Unless you are pre pubescent perhaps you should consider dropping the childish little digs. If you are then I understand. I coach under 12`s

"However, if you could provide the research report upon which you based your pre-Economist report please enlighten us all".

I am not expression any "pre-Economist report" opinion .i am simply pointing out what the report actually states in relation to Sweden. You on the other hand are attempting to make selective comparisons that fit with your narrative which the report does not do.
The only opinion I have on the report is that it backs up what many here have been saying for a long time. That when it comes to Sweden the comparisons are more applicable to it`s northern neighbours.

On your link. I have mentioned your attempts at" look over there" distractions on numerous occasions, so you should know by now it`s not a game I play.

No waffle, very focused on the Data.

This is just more of your anti science alt-right fake news tactics. It's the shout louder and distract from the topic tactic people like you like to employ.

I've always answered any question, as far as I'm aware.

So, you were requested to provide a quote from the article that explicitly declared that Sweden cannot be compared to Europe.

Naturally you couldn't provide one, and, as I predicted, because you don't respect science, you went with deflection and assumption.

Also, as predicted, you provided no data to back up your claim.

The game you play is not looking at scientific data, because it doesn't suit your case, because you have no respect for science.

Strangely, though, you did look at the economist report I posted.

The OECD report which destroys your argument that Sweden cannot be compared to the rest of Europe, however, cannot be acknowledged, so defection is necessary.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/state/docs/2018_healthatglance_rep_en.pdf

A man who compares Sweden to 3 other countries is making a selective comparison. Someone who is comparing Sweden to all of Europe is not.

What exactly is it that you teach under 12's? How to lie, cheat and blame the referee?

growleaves

Bit cynical wrote: »

I thought the pro-lockdown narrative about Sweden was that they didn't need enforced measures because the Swedes were naturally socially distancing and obeyed all the recommendations. This was the reason that they were mid-table for the EU and did not have the multiple of deaths earlier predicted.

Ah yes social distancing is 'Swedish culture', a Swede wouldn't dream of going near another Swede.

Er wait has that changed? *Hey look!*----> muh Nordic neighbours - Denmark, Finland, Norway, all the gang is here

cnocbui

This is a graph by a very prolific poster to this thread, showing that fat causes heart disease and how the mediterainin diet just oh so healthy for you?:



This is the graph when you look at all the available data and don't cherry pick the sh1t out of it so it aligns perfectly with your bias and the story you are trying to spin:

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

There was nothing unique about interpreting that data. Like practically all data it was just very basic mathematics.


For somebody that cannot wait to get out of Ireland because of lockdown measure, you better hope there is no other pandemics if you do get to NZ. Ireland`s is a teddy bears picnic compared to theirs.

And he's wrong again. No surprise here.

University of Oxford government COVID-19 response tracker: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker

Scored 0-100 - the higher, the more severe the measures:

Finland 52.31
New Zealand 56.02
Denmark 66.67
Sweden 69.44
Norway 73.15
Ireland 85.19

Some economists have written a paper wherin they theorise as to why Sweden's death toll was higher than it's neighbours, and it wasn't not having a lockdown:

Many international observers, particularly Americans, might make the mistake of thinking that all the Nordic countries are the same – Minnesota-sized countries with roughly the same language and culture and social-democratic institutions.

Not so. Sweden differs in identifiable ways from Norway, Finland, and Denmark. Moreover, the pandemic is particular, and the particulars of time and place can matter enormously.

I can think of some locals who have made that mistake.

It seems to boil down to the sheer bad luck that Stolkholm residents have a high propensity for nicking off for skiing in the Alps and so brought the virus back.

https://www.aier.org/article/swedens-high-covid-death-rates-among-the-nordics-dry-tinder-and-other-important-factors/

beauf

They are not alone in that....

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40217381.html

cnocbui

beauf wrote: »

They are not alone in that....

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40217381.html

So basically, some public servants are pissed at wealthy foreigners having holiday homes there and are using this as an excuse for getting in a dig at them.

beauf

cnocbui wrote: »

So basically, some public servants are pissed at wealthy foreigners having holiday homes there and are using this as an excuse for getting in a dig at them.

Nope

charlie14

beauf wrote: »

They are not alone in that....

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40217381.html

An expensive holiday when they pay the fine in Austria and another here when they get back. They could also end up paying for an extra surprise holiday in a airport hotel bedroom for two weeks.

charlie14

sheepysheep wrote: »

No waffle, very focused on the Data.

This is just more of your anti science alt-right fake news tactics. It's the shout louder and distract from the topic tactic people like you like to employ.

I've always answered any question, as far as I'm aware.

So, you were requested to provide a quote from the article that explicitly declared that Sweden cannot be compared to Europe.

Naturally you couldn't provide one, and, as I predicted, because you don't respect science, you went with deflection and assumption.

Also, as predicted, you provided no data to back up your claim.

The game you play is not looking at scientific data, because it doesn't suit your case, because you have no respect for science.

Strangely, though, you did look at the economist report I posted.

The OECD report which destroys your argument that Sweden cannot be compared to the rest of Europe, however, cannot be acknowledged, so defection is necessary.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/state/docs/2018_healthatglance_rep_en.pdf

A man who compares Sweden to 3 other countries is making a selective comparison. Someone who is comparing Sweden to all of Europe is not.

What exactly is it that you teach under 12's? How to lie, cheat and blame the referee?

Congratulations.

From all the attempts here recently to distract from Sweden, you have single-handedly managed to take that from the ridiculous too the bizarre.
An OECD 2018 report on health where 99% of the data is from 2016 or earlier.
Why do you think this pandemic was initially called Covid-19. Because like WD40 it required 19 attempts before they got it right ?

No chance of you copping yourself on with your alt-right and anti science childish rubbish anytime soon it seems

The Economist report is very clear on the results and the methodology used to reach those results in relation to Sweden.
For someone that waffles so much about anti-science, the very antithesis of science is what you were attempting to do. Take a report and attempt by doing your own analysis to attach a significance to it that neither in methodology or results the authors of the report did or saw the need to.

beauf

Ski holidays are just yet another thing that doesn't make Sweden unique.

Bit cynical

beauf wrote: »

Ski holidays are just yet another thing that doesn't make Sweden unique.

However that's the thing though isn't it. Sweden are pretty much average in terms of Covid deaths relative to the rest of the EU. Higher than other Nordic countries of course, but these generally don't have foreign winter skying holidays to the alps to the same extent.

beauf

Bit cynical wrote: »

However that's the thing though isn't it. Sweden are pretty much average in terms of Covid deaths relative to the rest of the EU. Higher than other Nordic countries of course, but these generally don't have foreign winter skying holidays to the alps to the same extent.

That terrible for Sweden, a country with all its advantages.
Its like an A player who drops two level to the C team and then struggles to be average.
Its terrible result for herd immunity without a vaccine.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/801008/europe-number-of-people-skiing-by-country/

Skiing Spread Covid all over the EU including Ireland. Sweden is not special in that regard.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wicklow-man-recovered-from-coronavirus-showed-no-symptoms-after-ski-trip-1.4209060

Bit cynical

beauf wrote: »

That terrible for Sweden, a country with all its advantages.
Its like an A player who drops two level to the C team and then struggles to be average.
Its terrible result for herd immunity without a vaccine.

But they are not struggling to be average. They are being average without the heavy restrictions of most EU countries. Given that they are not like other Nordic countries doesn't that imply to you that they are not doing too badly overall?

beauf

Bit cynical wrote: »

But they are not struggling to be average. They are being average without the heavy restrictions of most EU countries. Given that they are not like other Nordic countries doesn't that imply to you that they are not doing too badly overall?

The are doing meh compared to most of Europe all things considered.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/11/economic-forecast-some-eu-countries-will-recover-in-2021-others-must-wait-until-2022

They used to say Sweden has one of the best healthcare systems in the world.
They won't be saying that any longer.

Bit cynical

beauf wrote: »

The are doing meh compared to most of Europe all things considered.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/11/economic-forecast-some-eu-countries-will-recover-in-2021-others-must-wait-until-2022

They used to say Sweden has one of the best healthcare systems in the world.
They won't be saying that any longer.

However from that article you posted, Sweden's GDP is down -2.9% in 2020 vs -6.3% for the EU.

I would say overall that given they have only suffered less than half that of the EU economically in GDP for 2020 and are overall average in terms of deaths, they have not done too badly. Probably why there is still broad support for their policy in that country.

cnocbui

beauf wrote: »

The are doing meh compared to most of Europe all things considered.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/11/economic-forecast-some-eu-countries-will-recover-in-2021-others-must-wait-until-2022

They used to say Sweden has one of the best healthcare systems in the world.
They won't be saying that any longer.

If you average across 2020-2022 on those figures, Sweden does slightly better than Germany, so I don't think anyone in the real world will think any less of Sweden's health system.

Do you believe people are going to think Irelands decrepit health system is actually fantastic on the basis of stupid GDP figures that most realise are not even vaguely based on reality?

I doubt anyone thinks Italy's health system is poor, because they drew a couple of short straws in terms of demographics and bad circumstance - illegal Chinese workers and a lot of old people. I'd say Italy's health workers would generally be regarded as highly competent and absolute heroes, second to none, even though the death rate was appalling.

beauf

Bit cynical wrote: »

However from that article you posted, Sweden's GDP is down -2.9% in 2020 vs -6.3% for the EU.

I would say overall that given they have only suffered less than half that of the EU economically in GDP for 2020 and are overall average in terms of deaths, they have not done too badly. Probably why there is still broad support for their policy in that country.

Ireland is +3%

We were told Sweden was doing much better than everyone else. They aren't, not in any area. They basically abandoned their vunerable for nothing.

Bit cynical

beauf wrote: »

Ireland is +3%

We were told Sweden was doing much better than everyone else. They aren't, not in any area. They basically abandoned their vunerable for nothing.

Ireland's GDP is distorted by the presence of multinationals and does not represent the real economy. This is fairly well known at this stage.

Also on an age-by-age basis, their deaths are very similar to Ireland's. If you are a 70 year old in Sweden you are no more at risk than a 70 year old in Ireland which is undergoing an extended level 5 lockdown.

beauf

cnocbui wrote: »

If you average across 2020-2022 on those figures, Sweden does slightly better than Germany, so I don't think anyone in the real world will think any less of Sweden's health system.

Do you believe people are going to think Irelands decrepit health system is actually fantastic on the basis of stupid GDP figures that most realise are not even vaguely based on reality?
.....

Those figures are for GDP not health service.

According to this thread Sweden should be way ahead of everyone else in every aspect. It's isn't, it's very average. Way worse in some.

All that's left here is the scramble for excuses. The dog ate my homework. Of course it did.

beauf

Bit cynical wrote: »

Ireland's GDP is distorted by the presence of multinationals and does not represent the real economy. This is fairly well known at this stage.

Also on an age-by-age basis, their deaths are very similar to Ireland's. If you are a 70 year old in Sweden you are no more at risk than a 70 year old in Ireland which is undergoing an extended level 5 lockdown.

... And Sweden's death rate is distorted by people no one cares about, so they aren't real either....

It's interesting how inconvenient stats are the only ones that aren't real.

Bit cynical

beauf wrote: »

According to this thread Sweden should be way ahead of everyone else in every aspect. It's isn't, it's very average. Way worse in some.

I don't think so. They have a good health service but if that were the only factor countries like France should also be doing much better, particularly given their heavy restrictions.

I think rather what the critics of Sweden need to explain is why the predicted deaths did not happen. The onus is on those who predicted carnage beyond anything in Europe to explain why they were wrong.

beauf

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think so. They have a good health service but if that were the only factor countries like France should also be doing much better, particularly given their heavy restrictions...

Big fans of snow boarding. That must be it. Maybe apres ski. That could be the Italians. I can't remember now.

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think rather what the critics of Sweden need to explain is why the predicted deaths did not happen. The onus is on those who predicted carnage beyond anything in Europe to explain why they were wrong.

Sweden has one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 deaths per inhabitant globally.

That's not being critical of Sweden. That's just stats. Sweden is great. Maybe not the place to retire to though and pints are expensive. They need to get better website for IKEA though.