Sweden avoiding lockdown

biko

Bit cynical wrote: »

Only when this did not happen did critics move on to comparing Sweden with with the very best performing in the EU.

Critics started to compare Sweden to its closest neighbours after a few weeks. It's only natural and right to compare neighbouring countries that have so much in common except corona strategy.

This is from April last year

Dj Stiggie wrote: »

I live in Denmark so Sweden's approach has been in the news a lot. Usually Danes are very untrusting of the government and prefer minimal involvement (by Northern European standards) and Swedes are more accepting of the Nanny State. This time though, it's the opposite.

Two weeks ago the media here and in Sweden were saying that Easter will be the time that we see who has the right approach as many people will be traveling, and a lot of Sweden has been unaffected as it's so spread out. Since then though their death rate has soared and we're reopening primary schools and some businesses on Wednesday. Also, Denmark has over 1,000 respirators available, with just over 150 being used. I know whose approach I'm happier with.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

However I don't think anyone has argued that the other Nordic countries have not done well. They've done very well along with Cyprus, Estonia, Greece. The problem is that you can't condemn Sweden simply for not being the very best in the EU.

The original prediction, remember, was that they were going to have multiples of the deaths of other EU countries if they did not lock down like those other countries. Only when this did not happen did critics move on to comparing Sweden with with the very best performing in the EU.

If Sweden can't be condemned for not being the best in Europe, then equally should it not be praised for low deaths for a particular week as you have in a recent post comparing it to Cyprus, Estonia or Greece. Or as another poster did comparing Ireland to Sweden on deaths in the over 65 age group which when applied to Sweden’s near neighbours does not hold up.
They are opposite sides of the same coin so if you are going to highlight one side then I don’t see how it should be expected that the other side of that coin should be expected to be ignored.

Modelling figures originally were miles out, and not just for expected deaths, Sweden’s original strategy of herd immunity using the same metric were equally as far out.
At least the modelling on expected deaths were erring on the side of caution to keep infection numbers down, Sweden’s modelling on herd immunity if anything was the direct opposite in that for it to be possible infections would have to have reached 70% of the population

greyday

Up to about 6K infections a day again and deaths starting to rise also.

DylanJM

greyday wrote: »

Up to about 6K infections a day again and deaths starting to rise also.

7 day avg death is 18 according to Google's numbers (up the date as of yesterday). It was in the 30s in Feb. Not saying it won't rise in the near future off the back of the current rise in cases however.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

If Sweden can't be condemned for not being the best in Europe, then equally should it not be praised for low deaths for a particular week as you have in a recent post comparing it to Cyprus, Estonia or Greece. Or as another poster did comparing Ireland to Sweden on deaths in the over 65 age group which when applied to Sweden’s near neighbours does not hold up.
They are opposite sides of the same coin so if you are going to highlight one side then I don’t see how it should be expected that the other side of that coin should be expected to be ignored.

However when I was comparing Sweden to countries with a very low rate of daily deaths I wasn't condemning Sweden. Praising Sweden for being among the lowest in the EU is perfectly reasonable.

Likewise, were it the case that Sweden was among the very highest in Europe (they are not) it would be reasonable to condemn them.

The problem is that critics are condemning Sweden for not being among the very lowest in the bloc. This is what is not reasonable.

greyday

DylanJM wrote: »

7 day avg death is 18 according to Google's numbers (up the date as of yesterday). It was in the 30s in Feb. Not saying it won't rise in the near future off the back of the current rise in cases however.

Due to their delay in reporting, it is difficult to get a handle on it but they have about 170 notified since last Friday.

DylanJM

greyday wrote: »

Due to their delay in reporting, it is difficult to get a handle on it but they have about 170 notified since last Friday.

From what I see they publish on 4 days (Tue-Friday). This week was 26+56+8+26=116. Last week was 143. Week before that was 177. So still a decrease this week unless I'm looking at the wrong figures. (I'm going off Google).

I imagine the vaccines will be a having at least some impact on the amount elderly & vulnerable dying at this point.

greyday

DylanJM wrote: »

From what I see they publish on 4 days (Tue-Friday). This week was 26+56+8+26=116. Last week was 143. Week before that was 177. So still a decrease this week unless I'm looking at the wrong figures. (I'm going off Google).

I imagine the vaccines will be a having at least some impact on the amount elderly & vulnerable dying at this point.

Dont think Google is correct or I got Tuesdays figures, I thought there was close to 100 notified on Tuesday, apologies if I got that wrong.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

However when I was comparing Sweden to countries with a very low rate of daily deaths I wasn't condemning Sweden. Praising Sweden for being among the lowest in the EU is perfectly reasonable.

Likewise, were it the case that Sweden was among the very highest in Europe (they are not) it would be reasonable to condemn them.

The problem is that critics are condemning Sweden for not being among the very lowest in the bloc. This is what is not reasonable.

But Sweden are not among the lowest in Europe for deaths. At best they are mid table.
I do not see why you feel it is perfectly reasonable to just compare Sweden to Greece, Cyprus and Estonia on the basis of a specific time period in relation to deaths, while you apparently believe it is not reasonable to compare them, (or indeed their Nordic neighbours), on overall deaths.

Per 100,000 of population Sweden’s deaths are 128.41. Off the three countries you listed as being perfectly reasonable to compare them too per 100,000 population, Cyprus has 27.4, Greece 66.12, and Estonia 54.95.

One way we do know to keep deaths low is to keep infections low. You are not going to die due to COVID-19 if you are not infected. At present Sweden’s rolling 7 day average of new confirmed cases is among the highest in Europe and they now also have infections due to the South African variant where the infection disease doctor for the region of Uppsala say are only the tip of the iceberg.

DTownD

Important second graph on increased mortality in 2020 for anyone trying to argue that Sweden made the wrong call.

https://twitter.com/temennuconsult/status/1373260428638310400?s=20

cnocbui

But neighbouring countries - you have to stick to neighbouring countries or you're not playing fair. I'm going to tell on you.

greyday

So, is someone arguing that no lockdown would have saved more lives, if so you might explain how that would happen, only morons would make that argument IMO.

99nsr125

greyday wrote: »

So, is someone arguing that no lockdown would have saved more lives, if so you might explain how that would happen, only morons would make that argument IMO.

Access to routine procedures

Missed diagnosis

Suicide

Substance abuse

Gambling

Domestic violence

Increased obesity

Loss of education and skills leading to chronic knowledge gaps in healthcare.


Shutting things down has consequences you need to forecast these consequences for the life expectancy of those who will not die

odyssey06

99nsr125 wrote: »

Access to routine procedures

Missed diagnosis

Access to routine procedures

Missed diagnosis

Suicide

Substance abuse

Gambling

Domestic violence

Increased obesity

Loss of education and skills leading to chronic knowledge gaps in healthcare.

Shutting things down has consequences you need to forecast these consequences for the life expectancy of those who will not die

Several of your bullet points have nothing to do with lockdown, it is to do with hospital capacity.
You could just as easily make the case for the opposite - by restricting wider society you keep more capacity for such hospital services above.

Sweden also cancelled several of the above - or else please provide source showing where Sweden continued with routine medical screenings including cancer screenings etc uninterrupted throughout the pandemic.

To assess lockdown on the basis of crimes such as domestic violence is not straightforward given that lockdown and restrictions also led to a huge drop in Ireland in many forms of crime e.g. crimes against the person fell by a quarter, burglaries by half.
https://www.rte.ie/news/crime/2020/0602/1145004-crime-rate-ireland-pandemic/

The rest of your points are completely unproven and are just shotgun arguments with zero foundation e.g. suicide, gambling, obesity, education.

99nsr125

odyssey06 wrote: »

Several of your bullet points have nothing to do with lockdown, it is to do with hospital capacity.
You could just as easily make the case for the opposite - by restricting wider society you keep more capacity for such hospital services above.

Sweden also cancelled several of the above - or else please provide source showing where Sweden continued with routine medical screenings including cancer screenings etc uninterrupted throughout the pandemic.

To assess lockdown on the basis of crimes such as domestic violence is not straightforward given that lockdown and restrictions also led to a huge drop in Ireland in many forms of crime e.g. crimes against the person fell by a quarter, burglaries by half.
https://www.rte.ie/news/crime/2020/0602/1145004-crime-rate-ireland-pandemic/

The rest of your points are completely unproven and are just shotgun arguments with zero foundation e.g. suicide, gambling, obesity, education.

Sheesh
I'll walk you through one

Obesity
Shortens lives and increases costs and burden on all of society.

There was a pier reviewed study published in the bmj around the start of the college year last year.

In round numbers.
Being overweight reduced your life by a year
Being obese reduced your life by two

These people will also spend circa 30 years in those states

Weight gained now through the movement, exercise and activity restrictions will have implications for the world for the best part of half a century.

You don't quarantine or isolate healthy people because it is detrimental to their health and serves no purpose, you quarantine the ill and high risk.

Testing with quarantine when moving across international boundaries and states is how we handle animal and plant matter pathogens. Everyone just copied China and forgot a lifetime of medical knowledge and the politically compromised WHO just went along with it.

odyssey06

99nsr125 wrote: »

Sheesh
I'll walk you through one
Obesity
Shortens lives and increases costs and burden on all of society.
There was a pier reviewed study published in the bmj around the start of the college year last year.
In round numbers.
Being overweight reduced your life by a year
Being obese reduced your life by two

These people will also spend circa 30 years in those states

Weight gained now through the movement, exercise and activity restrictions will have implications for the world for the best part of half a century.

You don't quarantine or isolate healthy people because it is detrimental to their health and serves no purpose, you quarantine the ill and high risk.

Testing with quarantine when moving across international boundaries and states is how we handle animal and plant matter pathogens. Everyone just copied China and forgot a lifetime of medical knowledge and the politically compromised WHO just went along with it.

Shotgun argument again.

What does this have to do with lockdown or Sweden?
Zero evidence of anything here related to either.

You were challenged on how lockdown would cost more lives... you have responded with unproven general ref to obesity with no balance against the consequences of not lockìng down.

cnocbui

Lockdown will cause approximately 120 deaths from late cancer diagnosies in Ireland, I calculate.

1000 delayed diagnosies

normally a 40% death rate, but delays estimated to increase mortality rate by 12%

so 520 - 400 = 120

Now of course, we need to add to that the deaths for late diagnosies and treatments of other diseses that cause death, such as cardiovascular. I'd expect ther might be a spike in suicide rates.

odyssey06

cnocbui wrote: »

Lockdown will cause approximately 120 deaths from late cancer diagnosies in Ireland,

Nothing to do with 'lockdown'.
To do with strain on healthcare system.
Which lockdown aims to reduce.
You are conflating two entirely different things.

And also cancer screenings did not continue without interruption in Sweden.

cnocbui

The lockdown mentality and restriction have lead to fewer people seeking medical advice realting to symptoms. Some of it is a capcity issue and some is due to lockdown.

charlie14

odyssey06 wrote: »

Shotgun argument again.

What does this have to do with lockdown or Sweden?
Zero evidence of anything here related to either.

You were challenged on how lockdown would cost more lives... you have responded with unproven general ref to obesity with no balance against the consequences of not lockìng down.

That poster also conveniently ignored the possible long term effects from contracting Covid. A recent report from Sweden’s social welfare agency identified 4,600 people who were still unable to return to work 3 months after being infected.

charlie14

DTownD wrote: »

Important second graph on increased mortality in 2020 for anyone trying to argue that Sweden made the wrong call.

https://twitter.com/temennuconsult/status/1373260428638310400?s=20

Sweden had annual deaths of 88,766 in 2019. For 2020 the figure is 97,941. An increase of 9,175 (11.03%).
Of those 9,175 excess deaths, 30th December 8,727 were due to Covid.
Even for a complete out and out chancer and self publicists like Cummins, there is now way of sweeping those figures under the carpet.

thebaz

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden had annual deaths of 88,766 in 2019. For 2020 the figure is 97,941. An increase of 9,175 (11.03%).
Of those 9,175 excess deaths, 30th December 8,727 were due to Covid.
Even for a complete out and out chancer and self publicists like Cummins, there is now way of sweeping those figures under the carpet.

Given Swedens strategy , I would have expected a much higher figure, particularly a year ago when we thought the mortality rate would be much higher than it is.

niallo27

charlie14 wrote: »

That poster also conveniently ignored the possible long term effects from contracting Covid. A recent report from Sweden’s social welfare agency identified 4,600 people who were still unable to return to work 3 months after being infected.

Imagine the amount of people here who will never work again because of long covid, it's a dream scenario for a lot of wasters out there. It will be the same in every country.

charlie14

thebaz wrote: »

Given Swedens strategy , I would have expected a much higher figure, particularly a year ago when we thought the mortality rate would be much higher than it is.

Some here were predicting as late as December that Sweden’s annual deaths would be lower than 2019.

If you look at the recent post by DTownD #8773 and include Sweden’s excess deaths for 2020 in that BBC report, with over 11% they are second highest, and their deaths and infections are multiples of their Nordic neighbours.
I would not look on Sweden’s numbers being anything to clap themselves on back for when compared to either of those

charlie14

niallo27 wrote: »

Imagine the amount of people here who will never work again because of long covid, it's a dream scenario for a lot of wasters out there. It will be the same in every country.

Surely that could never be the case in Sweden.
Have we not been told here continuously how societally responsible the Swedes are compared to the Irish😧

99nsr125

odyssey06 wrote: »

Shotgun argument again.

What does this have to do with lockdown or Sweden?
Zero evidence of anything here related to either.

You were challenged on how lockdown would cost more lives... you have responded with unproven general ref to obesity with no balance against the consequences of not lockìng down.

The phrase shotgun argument is not a counter point it's a fallacy.

Restrictions on movement/activity, ya know lockdown have effects on peoples health. Their physical health, a long studied subject.

This is backed up by medical research on the effect of being overweight and obese through countless studies of every age group.

Habits formed now last a lifetime
Weight gained by middle age people now lasts a lifetime

60% of the population are already overweight
If this even increases by 1% that's 50,000 years lost just for being overweight

90 days is the average maximun shortening of life from Covid (from Forbes) round it up and call it a quarter of a year. That means people gaining weight alone would equate to 12,500 lives lost.

dwayneshintzy

99nsr125, you quarantine people if they're a risk of having COVID-19 so they don't spread it to others. Quarantine is not for the sake of the person being quarantined.

Probes

99nsr125 wrote: »

The phrase shotgun argument is not a counter point it's a fallacy.

Restrictions on movement/activity, ya know lockdown have effects on peoples health. Their physical health, a long studied subject.

This is backed up by medical research on the effect of being overweight and obese through countless studies of every age group.

Habits formed now last a lifetime
Weight gained by middle age people now lasts a lifetime

60% of the population are already overweight
If this even increases by 1% that's 50,000 years lost just for being overweight

90 days is the average maximun shortening of life from Covid (from Forbes) round it up and call it a quarter of a year. That means people gaining weight alone would equate to 12,500 lives lost.

You aren’t actually having a discussion, you’re just blathering random points with no connection to what you were asked. You were asked how lockdown caused delays to medical procedures, something you claimed. The answer is that lockdown prevents delays to medical procedures by protecting hospital capacity.

cnocbui

Probes wrote: »

You aren’t actually having a discussion, you’re just blathering random points with no connection to what you were asked. You were asked how lockdown caused delays to medical procedures, something you claimed. The answer is that lockdown prevents delays to medical procedures by protecting hospital capacity.

Usage of hospitals for non covid reasons is being restricted:

HSE chief executive Paul Reid has confirmed that non-urgent hospital care will be scaled back in the coming weeks due to the rise in COVID-19 hospitalisations.

Mr Reid said the HSE will be taking action to cease non-urgent care to avoid a point where hospitals are dealing with a huge surge in COVID-19 admissions.

https://extra.ie/2021/01/04/news/irish-news/non-urgent-hospital-care-to-be-scaled-back-due-to-surge-in-covid-19-cases

GPs have otherwise noted a decline in access to non-covid healthcare:

A Monaghan GP says she is deeply concerned about patient access to non-covid care over the winter period.

Dr Illona Duffy says GPs are seeing a 'rapid rise' in non-virus related presentations.

She says many of the vital services they need have either been closed or severely curtailed due to the pandemic.

Dr Duffy says GPs are worried about the outcomes for these patients:

"We know that throughout the country, hospitals and community services have closed because they had to, because of the rising number of Covid cases in the early stages.

"Many of those services either haven't reopened or have reopened but at lower rates. What that is doing is impacting on people's general healthcare."

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/gp-deeply-concerned-about-access-to-non-covid-care-during-winter-period-1025197.html

The hidden harm of the pandemic on many thousands of patients with a range of non-Covid conditions may take years to fully emerge, doctors have warned.

The battles against heart disease, cancer as well as a range of serious illnesses have suffered during the country’s unprecedented war against the killer virus.

There is a worrying toll of delayed diagnoses, missed appointments, backlogs of waiting lists as well as a slowdown in clinics due to infection control measures, particularly in the early part of the pandemic.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/hidden-harm-of-covid-on-publics-health-will-take-years-to-fully-emerge-39912588.html

It's a nonsense to spout blather about protecting hospital capacity when it's clear it's not being used and is being held in reserve for COVID, which is about all the HSE can think about. Allan Kelly asked Harris about HSE modelling of an increase in non-covid mortality and he didn't, or couldn't answer the question. Knowing this country, that probably means they know there is a problem so deliberately don't look into it so as to try and keep it invisible and attention away from it and so they can later try and avoid blame by feigning ignorance.

charlie14

It appears that even now, being a year into this pandemic, some still do not understand it not being a great idea to have Covid patients coming into contact with other patients in hospital settings.
Especially those that have underlying conditions which leaves them even more vulnerable now with the B.1.1.7. variant.
If we have learned anything from nursing home deaths I would have thought it would be that much at least.