Sweden avoiding lockdown

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

It appears that even now, being a year into this pandemic, some still do not understand it not being a great idea to have Covid patients coming into contact with other patients in hospital settings.
Especially those that have underlying conditions which leaves them even more vulnerable now with the B.1.1.7. variant.
If we have learned anything from nursing home deaths I would have thought it would be that much at least.

Oh give it up. Get out the violins for those nursing homes.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Oh give it up. Get out the violins for those nursing homes.

There have been quite a few, but that has to rank as one of your most inane replies.

sydthebeat

99nsr125 wrote: »

Sheesh
I'll walk you through one

Obesity
Shortens lives and increases costs and burden on all of society.

There was a pier reviewed study published in the bmj around the start of the college year last year.

In round numbers.
Being overweight reduced your life by a year
Being obese reduced your life by two

These people will also spend circa 30 years in those states

Weight gained now through the movement, exercise and activity restrictions will have implications for the world for the best part of half a century.

You don't quarantine or isolate healthy people because it is detrimental to their health and serves no purpose, you quarantine the ill and high risk.

Testing with quarantine when moving across international boundaries and states is how we handle animal and plant matter pathogens. Everyone just copied China and forgot a lifetime of medical knowledge and the politically compromised WHO just went along with it.

???

there are more people out exercising now then EVER before

https://www.tcd.ie/news_events/articles/covid-19-crisis-is-causing-people-to-exercise-more/#:~:text=Almost%2050%25%20of%20people%20are,during%20the%20COVID%2D19%20crisis.&text=These%20headline%20observations%20are%20among,during%20the%20COVID%2D19%20pandemic.

people have more time in their lives as other distractions arent happening.

if you are going to throw out a argument, at least make an effort at one not so obviously spurious and so easily disproven

odyssey06

cnocbui wrote: »

Usage of hospitals for non covid reasons is being restricted:
https://extra.ie/2021/01/04/news/irish-news/non-urgent-hospital-care-to-be-scaled-back-due-to-surge-in-covid-19-cases

GPs have otherwise noted a decline in access to non-covid healthcare

Can you ask some Swedish GPs have they seen a decline in referrals and screenings?

Because screenings e.g. for cancer screenings paused in Stockholm last spring.
e.g. https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7467201 & https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7469079

Therefore nothing you have posted indicates how this has anything to do with lockdown. Or Sweden.

Probes

cnocbui wrote: »

Usage of hospitals for non covid reasons is being restricted:

https://extra.ie/2021/01/04/news/irish-news/non-urgent-hospital-care-to-be-scaled-back-due-to-surge-in-covid-19-cases

GPs have otherwise noted a decline in access to non-covid healthcare:

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/gp-deeply-concerned-about-access-to-non-covid-care-during-winter-period-1025197.html

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/hidden-harm-of-covid-on-publics-health-will-take-years-to-fully-emerge-39912588.html

It's a nonsense to spout blather about protecting hospital capacity when it's clear it's not being used and is being held in reserve for COVID, which is about all the HSE can think about. Allan Kelly asked Harris about HSE modelling of an increase in non-covid mortality and he didn't, or couldn't answer the question. Knowing this country, that probably means they know there is a problem so deliberately don't look into it so as to try and keep it invisible and attention away from it and so they can later try and avoid blame by feigning ignorance.

What you've linked to are examples of restrictions out in place due to a coronavirus wave. These restrictions would be there regardless or not of lockdown. If we hadn't all got pissed over Christmas then we wouldn't have needed the extra capacity.

99nsr125

sydthebeat wrote: »

???

there are more people out exercising now then EVER before

https://www.tcd.ie/news_events/articles/covid-19-crisis-is-causing-people-to-exercise-more/#:~:text=Almost%2050%25%20of%20people%20are,during%20the%20COVID%2D19%20crisis.&text=These%20headline%20observations%20are%20among,during%20the%20COVID%2D19%20pandemic.

people have more time in their lives as other distractions arent happening.

if you are going to throw out a argument, at least make an effort at one not so obviously spurious and so easily disproven

You referenced an article with an absolute max of 6 weeks of data (last updated 18th of May 2020) and it was a survey not empirical study.

I'm referencing decade long multi national medical research

But here's a counter survey which reports 33% of people gained weight during lockdown

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40035965.html

Also

https://www.ucd.ie/newsandopinion/news/2020/august/24/oneinthreegainedweightduringthecovid-19lockdownaccordingtonewnationalstudy/

But that's still not empirical data.

it is patently obvious movement / exercise / sports restrictions will lead to less healthy people carrying more weight.

99nsr125

Probes wrote: »

You aren’t actually having a discussion, you’re just blathering random points with no connection to what you were asked. You were asked how lockdown caused delays to medical procedures, something you claimed. The answer is that lockdown prevents delays to medical procedures by protecting hospital capacity.

I referenced reasons how lockdown costs lives.
I didn't thknk it needed to be explained that shutting out virtually all other medical procedures would be detrimental to those people's lives.

Those lives lost because of lockdown are never talked about.

Everything we do in life has advantages and disadvantages, I search for and still have not found and paper from the hse / hiqa / nphet showing the loss of life caused by lockdown, the lives saved by lockdown and the net effect. This is what we need, this is what we are all discussing whether we know it consciously or not.

j@utis

Completely off topic but my first bike was NSR125, y 2001 though...

Ted_YNWA

Mod

Can we bring the general lockdown discussion to the Restrictions thread & motorbike comments to the relevent forum.

humberklog

Just having a cursory breeze through Sweden's numbers for the last week or so over on Worldometer.

They've registered about 49 deaths this week. 39 of those today so I presume a backlog of sorts. That's about 303 reported deaths in just under the last 3 weeks.

Interestingly though when I see the Mortality graph for a number of EU countries there's usually a fairly clear 3 hump graph presumably showing the effects of a 3rd wave? Sweden doesn't have that. Just 2 fairly clear humps in Mortality but 3 humps in infections. Have they avoided, so far, the mortality spike associated with the 3rd wave that other countries haven't avoided?

So like I said it was a cursory look, I see the same 2 Mortality spikes in Belgium, which surprised me.

Anyone over in Sweden on here that has some real time experience of how things are going?

MadYaker

Maybe they are just a few weeks behind

humberklog

MadYaker wrote: »

Maybe they are just a few weeks behind

Maybe. Although I think they've generally been fairly early to the dance compared to other EU countries even with their wonky way of reporting death figures.

Also, as they've a fairly open and mixing society with little restriction I wonder why they'd be behind now, if indeed they are behind.

*Ireland has 2 clear rises in Mortality too.

**Just to tidy up my earlier post- the first four countries I clicked on were France, Spain, Czech Rep. and Italy which showed 3 spikes in Mortality. The more EU countries I click on the more I'm seeing 2 clear Mortality spikes.

TonyMaloney

humberklog wrote: »

Just having a cursory breeze through Sweden's numbers for the last week or so over on Worldometer.

They've registered about 49 deaths this week. 39 of those today so I presume a backlog of sorts. That's about 303 reported deaths in just under the last 3 weeks.

Interestingly though when I see the Mortality graph for a number of EU countries there's usually a fairly clear 3 hump graph presumably showing the effects of a 3rd wave? Sweden doesn't have that. Just 2 fairly clear humps in Mortality but 3 humps in infections. Have they avoided, so far, the mortality spike associated with the 3rd wave that other countries haven't avoided?

So like I said it was a cursory look, I see the same 2 Mortality spikes in Belgium, which surprised me.

Anyone over in Sweden on here that has some real time experience of how things are going?

Sweden report deaths differently to all other countries.

We release numbers as soon as we're notified of them.
Sweden release the numbers based on the date of death. It's a time consuming practice, and there's always a big lag. Currently over two weeks.

It's why swedish deaths always seem to be in decline, even when they're at their worst.

TonyMaloney

This site does a good job of projecting what's really going on in Sweden

https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

humberklog

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Sweden report deaths differently to all other countries.

We release numbers as soon as we're notified of them.
Sweden release the numbers based on the date of death. It's a time consuming practice, and there's always a big lag. Currently over two weeks.

It's why swedish deaths always seem to be in decline, even when they're at their worst.

Yeah, that's been well flagged previously in the thread and that's a very handy graph you've linked which indeed does project a 3rd spike on the way.

CalamariFritti

humberklog wrote: »

Yeah, that's been well flagged previously in the thread and that's a very handy graph you've linked which indeed does project a 3rd spike on the way.

If you get that from looking at that graph you may have next weeks lotto numbers handy also.

DylanJM

Having a good chunk of the elderly and vulnerable vaxxed now should mean that despite this new wave of cases the deaths should not spike to the same degree as seen previously.

biko

DylanJM wrote: »

Having a good chunk of the elderly and vulnerable vaxxed now

Hmm, no

Proportion of Sweden's population 18 years and older who have received at least one dose: 12.6%

Percentage of Sweden's population 18 years and older who have been fully vaccinated: 5.5%

https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/corona-vaccin/

DylanJM

biko wrote: »

Hmm, no

Proportion of Sweden's population 18 years and older who have received at least one dose: 12.6%

Percentage of Sweden's population 18 years and older who have been fully vaccinated: 5.5%

https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/corona-vaccin/

66% of 80-89 range with at least one dose.

83% of 90+ range with at least one dose.

The 80-89 and 90+ age groups have accounted for 69% of Sweden's deaths according to the below (as of 24th Mar). So having the above amounts vaccinated will have an effect.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Bit cynical

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Sweden report deaths differently to all other countries.

We release numbers as soon as we're notified of them.
Sweden release the numbers based on the date of death. It's a time consuming practice, and there's always a big lag. Currently over two weeks.

It's why swedish deaths always seem to be in decline, even when they're at their worst.

Not the case at the moment however where they are showing a slight increase in daily deaths averaged over 7 days.

humberklog

CalamariFritti wrote: »

If you get that from looking at that graph you may have next weeks lotto numbers handy also.

Am I reading it wrong?
Over on the right hand side there are gray bars showing the expected beginnings of an upward trajectory and the legend says "Grays bars show 95% credible intervals for predicted actual deaths, with points at the median".

charlie14

biko wrote: »

Hmm, no

Proportion of Sweden's population 18 years and older who have received at least one dose: 12.6%

Percentage of Sweden's population 18 years and older who have been fully vaccinated: 5.5%

https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/corona-vaccin/

Those vaccination figures when compared to Ireland are a bit misleading. Unlike Ireland those percentages are not for the total population, just those over 18. Taking Sweden`s total population into account, it means around 10% first dose and 4.7% second.
If you are looking for herd immunity from vaccination, then it`s the percentage of the total population that is the magic figure.

CalamariFritti

humberklog wrote: »

Am I reading it wrong?
Over on the right hand side there are gray bars showing the expected beginnings of an upward trajectory and the legend says "Grays bars show 95% credible intervals for predicted actual deaths, with points at the median".

Credible doesnt mean its actually going to happen. Doesnt even mean its likely to happen. Just means its plausible.

Looking at he date before the grey bars begin anything could happen from there. Including what the grey bars say.

humberklog

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Credible doesnt mean its actually going to happen. Doesnt even mean its likely to happen. Just means its plausible.

Looking at he date before the grey bars begin anything could happen from there. Including what the grey bars say.

Yeah, I think you've got your wires crossed re my post.

I wasn't reading the graph as fact, but just what they're projecting and I'm taking that with a pinch of salt.

Bit cynical

humberklog wrote: »

I wasn't reading the graph as fact, but just what they're projecting and I'm taking that with a pinch of salt.

I think you are probably right to take it with a pinch of salt, at least until you know on what basis they are making the projection.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think you are probably right to take it with a pinch of salt, at least until you know on what basis they are making the projection.

With how Sweden`s new case numbers are still rising week on week, I imagine that is what the projection is based on.

biko

DylanJM wrote: »

66% of 80-89 range with at least one dose.

83% of 90+ range with at least one dose.

Sound, if you only look at that age bracket then yes, the majority are being vaccinated.

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

With how Sweden`s new case numbers are still rising week on week, I imagine that is what the projection is based on.

Deaths are declining week on week.

DylanJM

biko wrote: »

Sound, if you only look at that age bracket then yes, the majority are being vaccinated.

That was the point of my original comment. Having a good chunk of the most vulnerable vaxed will mean that there will likely be a smaller spike in deaths due to this new wave of cases. I was never claiming Sweden had the majority of their population done, just that a good chunk of the demographic accounting for most of the deaths so far had been.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Deaths are declining week on week.

Are new cases and ICU numbers ?