Sweden avoiding lockdown

Wolf359f

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Interesting write up:

http://davidwinch.website/sweden-at-zero/

Interesting he can write it up on 10th March with screengrabs from 16th March.
Anyway, he highlighted 16th March having 1 death, now weeks later we can see there's 15 deaths on that day. It's bad enough with the lag between deaths and cases, but in Sweden, due to how they report, it always seems like an ever longer lag.

Bit cynical

Wolf359f wrote: »

Interesting he can write it up on 10th March with screengrabs from 16th March.
Anyway, he highlighted 16th March having 1 death, now weeks later we can see there's 15 deaths on that day. It's bad enough with the lag between deaths and cases, but in Sweden, due to how they report, it always seems like an ever longer lag.

Unfortunately they are using the wrong dataset from Sweden via Worldometers based on date of death rather than date of report of death.

Better view of the situation below based on John Hopkins data:

Blut2

Bit cynical wrote: »

Unfortunately they are using the wrong dataset from Sweden via Worldometers based on date of death rather than date of report of death.

Better view of the situation below based on John Hopkins data:

That data would still seem to show their measures are working just as effectively as Irelands, with far less collateral economic/mental/health damage to the country?

Bit cynical

Blut2 wrote: »

That data would still seem to show their measures are working just as effectively as Irelands, with far less collateral economic/mental/health damage to the country?

I agree, yes. On balance when adjusted for age, they have done about the same overall in terms of deaths but, as you point out, without the crippling collateral damage.

Computer Science Student

It's clear as day that nobody in the Irish government is making data-driven decisions. If this pandemic has thought us anything, it's that nobody should be elected into a government position without passing a basic college level Statistics 101 course. There is no excuse for us to ever mismanage a pandemic or crisis like this ever again.

PintOfView

Computer Science Student wrote: »

It's clear as day that nobody in the Irish government is making data-driven decisions. If this pandemic has thought us anything, it's that nobody should be elected into a government position without passing a basic college level Statistics 101 course. There is no excuse for us to ever mismanage a pandemic or crisis like this ever again.

Can I ask you what is the most important data that they ignored?

If you were in charge, what would you have done for the past 12 months, and based on what data?

99nsr125

PintOfView wrote: »

Can I ask you what is the most important data that they ignored?

If you were in charge, what would you have done for the past 12 months, and based on what data?

Colleral effects I expect.

Curent lockdown is not too far away from communism or other forms of aggressive social engineering.

At 25 your odds of dying from Covid are 0.0075% significantly less than for the flu.

At 85 your odds of dying from Covid are 2%

Certainly anyone under the age of 25 has been fųcked by lockdown and lost 365 days of life in muvh grdater njmbers versus a saving of ~90 days in much smaller numbers for older at risk groups.

It's disproportionate

PintOfView

99nsr125 wrote: »

Colleral effects I expect.

Curent lockdown is not too far away from communism or other forms of aggressive social engineering.

At 25 your odds of dying from Covid are 0.0075% significantly less than for the flu.

At 85 your odds of dying from Covid are 2%

Certainly anyone under the age of 25 has been fųcked by lockdown and lost 365 days of life in muvh grdater njmbers versus a saving of ~90 days in much smaller numbers for older at risk groups.

It's disproportionate

I don't understand your point re communism, or social engineering!?

Also, where do you get your percentages from?

From this page (US National Library of Medicine, Dec 2020)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7721859/
we have ...
"The estimated age-specific IFR (incident fatality rate) is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85."
and ...
"These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident and far more dangerous than seasonal influenza."

I remain to be convinced that covid is not a serious threat to a significant number of people.

I'm also interested in the Swedish experienced.
Even though they didn't have a lock down like us, which of the following did they do?

Did they do social distancing?
Did any/many people wear masks?
Did any/many people work from home?
I imagine bars & restaurants remained open, but did many people visit them? and were they able to keep staff employed?
Did they have matches, or concerts, etc?

What I'm getting at is, if they had a de-facto partial lockdown?

I do accept they seem to have done better than would be expected
(even if much worse than their immediate neighbours)

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

Colleral effects I expect.

Curent lockdown is not too far away from communism or other forms of aggressive social engineering.

At 25 your odds of dying from Covid are 0.0075% significantly less than for the flu.

At 85 your odds of dying from Covid are 2%

Certainly anyone under the age of 25 has been fųcked by lockdown and lost 365 days of life in muvh grdater njmbers versus a saving of ~90 days in much smaller numbers for older at risk groups.

It's disproportionate

Similar to PintOfView I have no idea where you got this 2% for 85 year olds from.

In the USA at present 30.7 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 have resulted in 555,000 deaths. A ratio of deaths to confirmed cases of 1.8% overall.

The over 65 year olds in the USA make up 16% of the population. According to the CDC by July 2020 this cohort made up 80% of all Covid-19 deaths.
All things being equal over the various age groups, that would mean that the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases for those 65 and over in the USA July 2020 was 9%.

Even though vaccinations are reducing the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths, I believe it is safe to say that prior to vaccines for those aged 85 and over it was even greater than 9%.

mcsean2163

From the WHO:

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/99/1/20-265892/en/

The median infection fatality rate across all 51 locations was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%).

It's not broken down by age. Given asymptomatic, etc. the nonsense spouted about the us above is nonsense.

mcsean2163

For anyone interested, here's my analysis of the Oxford restrictions relating to Ireland.

https://seanmcm.medium.com/how-strict-have-the-covid-19-lockdown-restrictions-been-in-ireland-22c80ea06222

Note, I'm not a journalist and it's just a post. Interpret as you please.

humberklog

mcsean2163 wrote: »

For anyone interested, here's my analysis of the Oxford restrictions relating to Ireland.

https://seanmcm.medium.com/how-strict-have-the-covid-19-lockdown-restrictions-been-in-ireland-22c80ea06222

Note, I'm not a journalist and it's just a post. Interpret as you please.

Have you anything to add about Sweden?

mcsean2163

humberklog wrote: »

Have you anything to add about Sweden?

If you click on the age link.

Sweden population proportion over 65 19.8% versus Ireland 13.2%

The Swedish global restrictions ranking is 95th versus Ireland 23rd over last year-ish.

Sweden actually had higher restrictions than Poland over that time which is surprising to me at least.

Adjusting for age we only did marginally better than Sweden despite having had the highest restrictions in the EU since 12 march 2020 according to imperfect Oxford data.

What does that mean? I don't know. Maybe the government have reasons that we are just not aware of? Whatever, there's the data.

Fwiw, I really wanted the government to stop air travel at the start and do a Taiwan.

Now, I understand that covid19 patients place a much bigger burden on hospitals and hope the vaccine will get us out of this mess but wonder what's after Covid19.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

From the WHO:

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/99/1/20-265892/en/

The median infection fatality rate across all 51 locations was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%).

It's not broken down by age. Given asymptomatic, etc. the nonsense spouted about the us above is nonsense.

Infection rates are nothing more than mathematical modelling guesswork and if we have learned anything at this stage, it is how inaccurate mathematical modelling has been.

Sweden based when they were attempting to achieve naturally acquired herd immunity based their timeframe on infection rate modelling, and we know how that work out. They also did the same when stating they would have higher levels of immunity than their neighbours for a second wave. Their case numbers show how wrong they were there as well.
Amazonas used the same infection rate modelling for herd immunity, only assuming infection rates were just 50% greater than confirmed numbers and still got it wrong. Same was being claimed for India a short time ago. Again incorrect.

Statistics is about quantifiable numbers. The example I gave for the USA does that.
The number of confirmed cases are know, as are the numbers who passed. Using both gives a quantifiable CFR (case fatality rate). IFR (infection fatality rate) does not as the infection rate is nothing other than a best guess modelling figure.

If Covid-19 totally disappeared in the morning, there would still be no way of determining the IFR. The CFR would still be as easily determined.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

If you click on the age link.

Sweden population proportion over 65 19.8% versus Ireland 13.2%

The Swedish global restrictions ranking is 95th versus Ireland 23rd over last year-ish.

Sweden actually had higher restrictions than Poland over that time which is surprising to me at least.

Adjusting for age we only did marginally better than Sweden despite having had the highest restrictions in the EU since 12 march 2020 according to imperfect Oxford data.

What does that mean? I don't know. Maybe the government have reasons that we are just not aware of? Whatever, there's the data.

Fwiw, I really wanted the government to stop air travel at the start and do a Taiwan.

Now, I understand that covid19 patients place a much bigger burden on hospitals and hope the vaccine will get us out of this mess but wonder what's after Covid19.

I wouldn`t see it as meaning much of anything when you consider the percentages aged 65 and over for the other three Nordic countries.

For Denmark it is the same as Sweden, 19%. For Finland 22%, and for Norway 17.5%.

Probes

Blut2 wrote: »

That data would still seem to show their measures are working just as effectively as Irelands, with far less collateral economic/mental/health damage to the country?

Sweden is going through a third wave just now. Hopefully they've vaccinated enough people to avoid the deaths they incurred beforehand. We will find out in time as their death reporting is delayed by weeks. Regardless of that, if we had undertaken the same measures as Sweden how do you suppose it would have played out here? There is a clue across the border where they have one of the highest death rates in the world. For whatever reason the virus hasn't impacted Scandinavian or Asian countries as badly as Western European countries. We don't understand why, but this is why it's unfair to compare Sweden with Ireland, or Ireland with Madagascar.

humberklog

Probes wrote: »

Sweden is going through a third wave just now. Hopefully they've vaccinated enough people to avoid the deaths they incurred beforehand. We will find out in time as their death reporting is delayed by weeks. Regardless of that, if we had undertaken the same measures as Sweden how do you suppose it would have played out here? There is a clue across the border where they have one of the highest death rates in the world. For whatever reason the virus hasn't impacted Scandinavian or Asian countries as badly as Western European countries. We don't understand why, but this is why it's unfair to compare Sweden with Ireland, or Ireland with Madagascar.

Wouldn't part of the reason NI have a higher death rate than ROI have something to do with their age profile. Ireland has about 11.7% above 65, that's probably going by the 2016 census. Whereas NI has just over 15% over 65's and that's going by 2011 census which was showing a fairly steep rise on the previous census.

Sweden has 20.5% above 65.

Historical Irish immigration from the 1940's, '50s,' 60s and '70s has saved Ireland some blushes... and deaths registered.

But it's very wobbly ground isolating country on country comparisons.

Probes

humberklog wrote: »

Wouldn't part of the reason NI have a higher death rate than ROI have something to do with their age profile. Ireland has about 11.7% above 65, that's probably going by the 2016 census. Whereas NI has just over 15% over 65's and that's going by 2011 census which was showing a fairly steep rise on the previous census.

Sweden has 20.5% above 65.

Historical Irish immigration from the 1940's, '50s,' 60s and '70s has saved Ireland some blushes... and deaths registered.

But it's very wobbly ground isolating country on country comparisons.

I don't think it's wobbly grounds at all, it's far more reasonable to use closest neighbours than comparing with countries around the world. I mean we did **** compared with Afghanistan, should we draw that comparison? There may be many factors behind the difference, presumably a large factor is that so many Swedish people live alone, that would greatly reduce transmission one would think. Does a few percent difference in population age make that large a difference? The reality is we would be performing as one of the top countries if we hadn't thrown a party for Christmas, those few weeks have cost us dearly.

humberklog

Probes wrote: »

I don't think it's wobbly grounds at all, it's far more reasonable to use closest neighbours than comparing with countries around the world. I mean we did **** compared with Afghanistan, should we draw that comparison? There may be many factors behind the difference, presumably a large factor is that so many Swedish people live alone, that would greatly reduce transmission one would think. Does a few percent difference in population age make that large a difference? The reality is we would be performing as one of the top countries if we hadn't thrown a party for Christmas, those few weeks have cost us dearly.[/QUOTE

Well I'd guess, and it is just that, that a few percentage difference in certain age groups would make a difference when the virus is mostly killing that age group.

But hey, that's just my thinking- I'm certainly not interested in getting cranky about it.

mcsean2163

humberklog wrote: »

Probes wrote: »

I don't think it's wobbly grounds at all, it's far more reasonable to use closest neighbours than comparing with countries around the world. I mean we did **** compared with Afghanistan, should we draw that comparison? There may be many factors behind the difference, presumably a large factor is that so many Swedish people live alone, that would greatly reduce transmission one would think. Does a few percent difference in population age make that large a difference? The reality is we would be performing as one of the top countries if we hadn't thrown a party for Christmas, those few weeks have cost us dearly.[/QUOTE

Well I'd guess, and it is just that, that a few percentages differences in certain age groups would make a difference when the virus is mostly killing that age group.

But hey, that's just my thinking- I'm certainly not interested in getting cranky about it.

Agree, so much is still unknown on how transmission occurs. I think Finland's keep it out policy was probably best...

Probes

Probes wrote: »

Sweden is going through a third wave just now. Hopefully they've vaccinated enough people to avoid the deaths they incurred beforehand. We will find out in time as their death reporting is delayed by weeks. Regardless of that, if we had undertaken the same measures as Sweden how do you suppose it would have played out here? There is a clue across the border where they have one of the highest death rates in the world. For whatever reason the virus hasn't impacted Scandinavian or Asian countries as badly as Western European countries. We don't understand why, but this is why it's unfair to compare Sweden with Ireland, or Ireland with Madagascar.

Could the general health of the population in Western European countries and in Asian and Scandinavian countries be a factor? Ireland, for example, is on track to be the most obese country in Europe by 2030: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ireland-set-to-be-most-obese-country-in-europe-who-says-1.2201731. Processed food is very popular in Ireland and the UK (sausage rolls, breakfast rolls, Full Irish / Full English, pizza, minerals etc). It always amazes me that two or three apples in the supermarket are often dearer than 5 Mars bars (I'm thinking of the '5 Mars Bars for a euro' or '10 mini timeouts for a euro' special offers you see in supermarkets). I understand that the fruit is imported, and that it's rather expensive as a result, but I just wonder if the general health of the population in the countries might be a factor.

mcsean2163

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Could the general health of the population in Western European countries and in Asian and Scandinavian countries be a factor? Ireland, for example, is on track to be the most obese country in Europe by 2030: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ireland-set-to-be-most-obese-country-in-europe-who-says-1.2201731. Processed food is very popular in Ireland and the UK (sausage rolls, breakfast rolls, Full Irish / Full English, pizza, minerals etc). It always amazes me that two or three apples in the supermarket are often dearer than 5 Mars bars (I'm thinking of the '5 Mars Bars for a euro' or '10 mini timeouts for a euro' special offers you see in supermarkets). I understand that the fruit is imported, and that it's rather expensive as a result, but I just wonder if the general health of the population in the countries might be a factor.

Czech did great in the first wave. Polish are pretty healthy. I wondered if it was to do with national health policy and cytokine storms. I doubt we'll ever know.

The best success story I was part of had a guy asking stupid questions. I wonder if he wasn't there if we would have succeeded.

The government health sector seems the exact opposite, questions are not allowed.

charlie14

Probes wrote: »

I don't think it's wobbly grounds at all, it's far more reasonable to use closest neighbours than comparing with countries around the world. I mean we did **** compared with Afghanistan, should we draw that comparison? There may be many factors behind the difference, presumably a large factor is that so many Swedish people live alone, that would greatly reduce transmission one would think. Does a few percent difference in population age make that large a difference? The reality is we would be performing as one of the top countries if we hadn't thrown a party for Christmas, those few weeks have cost us dearly.

I would not see your ground as wobbly either in regards to NI and those aged 65 and over. There is very little difference percentage wise.

CSO 2016 census for Ireland. Population 4,755,976. 65 years and older 637,567 (13.4%) which was an increase of 19% compared to the previous.
Present estimates are population 5,176,569. 65 years and older 715,364 (13.8%).

snowcat

https://fee.org/articles/texas-has-fewer-covid-cases-than-michigan-despite-nearly-20m-more-people-and-no-restrictions/

Probes

snowcat wrote: »

https://fee.org/articles/texas-has-fewer-covid-cases-than-michigan-despite-nearly-20m-more-people-and-no-restrictions/

Texas has had very tough restrictions during the pandemic, they now have a large proportion of their population vaccinated.

snowcat

Probes wrote: »

Texas has had very tough restrictions during the pandemic, they now have a large proportion of their population vaccinated.

So did Michigan and still does. Yet they are having a surge and Texas is not. Vaccinations are similiar in both States.

PintOfView

snowcat wrote: »

So did Michigan and still does. Yet they are having a surge and Texas is not. Vaccinations are similiar in both States.

There has to be some explanation for the difference.
The virus must have more opportunities to jump from one person to the next in Michigan.

Could weather be a factor?

Texas - due to weather, will likely have more outdoor eating and drining!! windows & doors open more, better ventilation, etc.
Michigan - Weather now is still less suitable for outdoor socialising, and doors & windows less likely to be open!

Texas / Houston (temperatures - 4am / 4pm each day for next week)
Fri = 21c/ 28c
Sat = 15c / 28c
Sun = 19c / 29c
Mon = 22c / 28c
Tue = 22c / 29c
Wed = 19c / 29c
Thu = 17c / 26c
Fri = 16c / 26c

Michigan / Detroit
Fri = 12c / 23c
Sat = 11c / 26c
Sun = 9c / 13c
Mon = 8c / 19c
Tue = 4c / 17c
Wed = 4c / 15c
Thu = 4c / 16c
Fri = 4c / 16c

DylanJM

Cases in Sweden seem to have leveled out around at a 7 day avg. in the 5,000-5,500 range. Been around that mark for 3 weeks or so. 7 day avg for deaths in that period is in the 14-20 range.

snowcat

PintOfView wrote: »

There has to be some explanation for the difference.
The virus must have more opportunities to jump from one person to the next in Michigan.

Could weather be a factor?

Texas - due to weather, will likely have more outdoor eating and drining!! windows & doors open more, better ventilation, etc.
Michigan - Weather now is still less suitable for outdoor socialising, and doors & windows less likely to be open!

Texas / Houston (temperatures - 4am / 4pm each day for next week)
Fri = 21c/ 28c
Sat = 15c / 28c
Sun = 19c / 29c
Mon = 22c / 28c
Tue = 22c / 29c
Wed = 19c / 29c
Thu = 17c / 26c
Fri = 16c / 26c

Michigan / Detroit
Fri = 12c / 23c
Sat = 11c / 26c
Sun = 9c / 13c
Mon = 8c / 19c
Tue = 4c / 17c
Wed = 4c / 15c
Thu = 4c / 16c
Fri = 4c / 16c

Possibly. Does not explain Brazil on that basis. There is a lot we dont know about this virus.

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

Infection rates are nothing more than mathematical modelling guesswork and if we have learned anything at this stage, it is how inaccurate mathematical modelling has been.

Sweden based when they were attempting to achieve naturally acquired herd immunity based their timeframe on infection rate modelling, and we know how that work out. They also did the same when stating they would have higher levels of immunity than their neighbours for a second wave. Their case numbers show how wrong they were there as well.
Amazonas used the same infection rate modelling for herd immunity, only assuming infection rates were just 50% greater than confirmed numbers and still got it wrong. Same was being claimed for India a short time ago. Again incorrect.

Statistics is about quantifiable numbers. The example I gave for the USA does that.
The number of confirmed cases are know, as are the numbers who passed. Using both gives a quantifiable CFR (case fatality rate). IFR (infection fatality rate) does not as the infection rate is nothing other than a best guess modelling figure.

If Covid-19 totally disappeared in the morning, there would still be no way of determining the IFR. The CFR would still be as easily determined.

Sorry, I generally skip your comments but did read this by mistake and feel obliged to reply.

The WHO estimate is from serological studies as in taking sampli to confirm covid19 antibodies and use that to find ifr. That's not modelling.