Sweden avoiding lockdown

biko

cnocbui wrote: »

Maybe we could prioritise vacination the elderly, or would that be selfish? I know it's a radical thought, but maybe worth considering. :rolleyes:

Are you talking about Sweden, or Ireland?
I think both are prioritising elderly.

greyday

biko wrote: »

Are you talking about Sweden, or Ireland?
I think both are prioritising elderly.

Yes they are Biko, some Countries are playing with the idea of vaccinating younger people quickly as they are the least compliant with restrictions.

average_runner

greyday wrote: »

Yes they are Biko, some Countries are playing with the idea of vaccinating younger people quickly as they are the least compliant with restrictions.

But younger people aren't taking beds in the hospitals!!!

greyday

average_runner wrote: »

But younger people aren't taking beds in the hospitals!!!

Just spreading it to elderly people who do take beds in hospitals, this is why some Countries are toying with the idea of vaccinating the younger people before middle aged people.

99nsr125

brenbrady wrote: »

The facts are that Sweden, with no lockdown, have had 460 deaths in those under 60. So for people under 60, with few restrictions, CV-19 carries a similar risk as dying in a car crash. This is the point where everyone shouts, "car crashes aren't contagious". CV-19 is and in Sweden it was given the opportunity and space to spread, so the argument that thousands of middle aged and young people aren't dead in Ireland because we stopped it by restrictions are proven irrelevant by the Swedish results. 9384 of their deaths occurred in those over 80, 3698 of those were over 90.

CV-19 is a minimal risk to those under 60, basically not worth worrying about on a personal level, but is dangerous in the older cohort. We can learn from this, and comparing Sweden and other SK countries to other EU countries who have had different outcomes is a perfectly legitimate question.

Ireland has done a great job of not releasing data on deaths in the daily briefings, and at no time seemed willing to be honest about who is at most risk from this disease. With the restrictions we have, for those under sixty the chances of dying of CV-19 are vanishingly small. The chances of these same people dying from the complications which WILL arise from our year of lockdowns is not.

Exactly everyone's argument against sledgehammer lockdown,

charlie14

average_runner wrote: »

But younger people aren't taking beds in the hospitals!!!

Yesterday Sweden had 2,212 Covid cases in hospital beds and 416 in ICU beds.

charlie14

exitfee wrote: »

Past that scary bit

Do you have a breakdown by age, bmi, general health, anything?

My reply was to a poster that said younger people do not take up Covid hospital beds, so assuming that poster is correct, then it is those in the older cohort groups that are more vulnerable that are taking up those beds does it not.

The 70 - 89 year cohort are highly vulnerable and last weeks new case numbers included 2,133 of that age group.

biko

greyday wrote: »

Yes they are Biko, some Countries are playing with the idea of vaccinating younger people quickly as they are the least compliant with restrictions.

Is Sweden in this group of countries you refer to?
Linky?

charlie14

average_runner wrote: »

But younger people aren't taking beds in the hospitals!!!

According to The Local.se in Sweden that is no longer the case.


"Several Swedish regions have reached the maximum capacity for intensive care and have been forced to ask other regions for help as the continued high spread is leading to more people -especially young people - requiring hospital treatment."

Sweden still holding it's nerve with no lockdown despite increase in + tests yet no sign of increase in deaths.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1384484680980828166?s=20

Boggles

brenbrady wrote: »

Sweden still holding it's nerve with no lockdown despite increase in + tests yet no sign of increase in deaths.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1384484680980828166?s=20

Really? The actual Health Minister disagrees with David who judging my his twitter account is one these insufferable dickhéads who has all the easy answers.


Yes, it’s really that bad’: Several Swedish regions reach maximum intensive care capacity

Several Swedish regions have reached their maximum capacity for intensive care and been forced to ask other regions for help as the continued high spread of Covid-19 is leading to more people – especially young people – requiring hospital treatment.

Health Minister Lena Hallengren called a briefing on Wednesday to underline the severity of the situation in the nation’s intensive care departments.

“In several places in the healthcare sector, more people are being cared for than at any time during the pandemic,”

greyday

Where would you get the cumulative weekly/monthly deaths for Sweden?
Its strange that every Country in the World that see high infection rates also see high death rates other than Sweden, we know they have the same issue with vaccine supply as the rest of Europe so its unlikely they have done any better or worse than the rest of Europe in that regard, is the Swedish healthcare so much better than the German healthcare?

greyday

greyday wrote: »

Where would you get the cumulative weekly/monthly deaths for Sweden?
Its strange that every Country in the World that see high infection rates also see high death rates other than Sweden, we know they have the same issue with vaccine supply as the rest of Europe so its unlikely they have done any better or worse than the rest of Europe in that regard, is the Swedish healthcare so much better than the German healthcare?

Compared to Sweden, in absolute numbers Germany currently has 400% of the 7day rolling average of detections, and 1000% the 7 day rolling average of deaths. As Sweden lost far more of its vulnerable population (in terms of vulnerability to being infected e.g. institutional settings and in vulnerability to having a severe infection leading to death) in earlier waves, the disparity in detections-to-deaths between Sweden and Germany doesn't seem as wild as you portray it.


Netherlands has had ~56k cases in the last 7 days with 133 deaths.
Belgium has had ~24k cases in the last 7 days with 264 deaths
Sweden has had ~38k cases in the last 7 days with 140 deaths.


Why is it yet another person posting guff rather than doing a handful of google searches and engaging their brain?



*all stats from google's coronavirus info, not arsed spending more time on data that people will just ignore anyway because it doesn't suit their narrative

greyday

Deleted User wrote: »

Compared to Sweden, in absolute numbers Germany currently has 400% of the 7day rolling average of detections, and 1000% the 7 day rolling average of deaths. As Sweden lost far more of its vulnerable population (in terms of vulnerability to being infected e.g. institutional settings and in vulnerability to having a severe infection leading to death) in earlier waves, the disparity in detections-to-deaths between Sweden and Germany doesn't seem as wild as you portray it.


Netherlands has had ~56k cases in the last 7 days with 133 deaths.
Belgium has had ~24k cases in the last 7 days with 264 deaths
Sweden has had ~38k cases in the last 7 days with 140 deaths.


Why is it yet another person posting guff rather than doing a handful of google searches and engaging their brain?



*all stats from google's coronavirus info, not arsed spending more time on data that people will just ignore anyway because it doesn't suit their narrative

Asking questions is guff now, is it?
Sorry you could not understand the question, it was in the first line of my previous post.

greyday

greyday wrote: »

Asking questions is guff now, is it?
Sorry you could not understand the question, it was in the first line of my previous post.

Its strange that every Country in the World that see high infection rates also see high death rates other than Sweden, we know they have the same issue with vaccine supply as the rest of Europe so its unlikely they have done any better or worse than the rest of Europe in that regard, is the Swedish healthcare so much better than the German healthcare?

That's making a statement of fact. A statement of fact easily disproved.

What am I 'misunderstanding' exactly?



"people will just ignore anyway because it doesn't suit their narrative" as I said, not that I needed you to prove a point that's been proven so many times on this thread already by the anti-lockdown eejits.

greyday

Deleted User wrote: »

That's making a statement of fact. A statement of fact easily disproved.

What am I 'misunderstanding' exactly?



"people will just ignore anyway because it doesn't suit their narrative" as I said, not that I needed you to prove a point that's been proven so many times on this thread already by the anti-lockdown eejits.

The part you ignored!
Where would you get the cumulative weekly/monthly deaths for Sweden?

Comprehension may not be your thing, okey dokey.

greyday

greyday wrote: »

The part you ignored!
Where would you get the cumulative weekly/monthly deaths for Sweden?

Comprehension may not be your thing, okey dokey.

Considering you've shown twice in two posts that you don't even understand what the concept of "comprehension" is, you might want to not talk about it in the future - just as an FYI. You asked a question and made a separate point, I replied to the separate point. Why are you denying objective reality?


Speaking of anti-lockdown eejits, Johan Giesecke (former state epidemiologist for Sweden and a firm anti-lockdown advocate) sat down for an interview to review his predictions from a year ago. A snippet;

Johan Giesecke disagrees: “The differences between Sweden and its neighbours are much bigger than people realise from the outside — different systems, different cultural traditions…If you compare Sweden to other European countries [such as the UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium] it’s the other way round. On the ranking of excess mortality, Sweden is somewhere in the middle or below the middle of European countries. So I think it’s really Norway and Finland that are the outliers more than Sweden.”

Explaining what he means by cultural differences, he mentions among other factors that “they’re more sparsely populated. There are less people per square kilometre in these two countries. There are also much fewer people who were born outside Europe living in these two countries.”

Let's break this down further.

1) Population density - Norway has 82% of it's population living in urban areas. Sweden has 87%. Finland has 85.5%

2) Foreign background - 18.5% of Norweign residents are either foreign-born, or have two foreign-born parents. 25.9% of Swedish residents are either foreign-born, or have two foreign-born parents. 7.7% of Finnish residents are same.
2a) Outside Europe background - 9.5% of Norwegian residents vs 11.2% of Swedish residents vs 2.25% of Finnish Residents


Wow, it's almost like he's talking nonsense pulled out of thin air. How many posters in this thread have bull****ted about Sweden's 'high proportion of immigrants' without ever actually checking if it was true?

greyday

Deleted User wrote: »

Considering you've shown twice in two posts that you don't even understand what the concept of "comprehension" is, you might want to not talk about it in the future - just as an FYI. You asked a question and made a separate point, I replied to the separate point. Why are you denying objective reality?


Speaking of anti-lockdown eejits, Johan Giesecke (former state epidemiologist for Sweden and a firm anti-lockdown advocate) sat down for an interview to review his predictions from a year ago. A snippet;

Let's break this down further.

1) Population density - Norway has 82% of it's population living in urban areas. Sweden has 87%. Finland has 85.5%

2) Foreign background - 18.5% of Norweign residents are either foreign-born, or have two foreign-born parents. 25.9% of Swedish residents are either foreign-born, or have two foreign-born parents. 7.7% of Finnish residents are same.
2a) Outside Europe background - 9.5% of Norwegian residents vs 11.2% of Swedish residents vs 2.25% of Finnish Residents


Wow, it's almost like he's talking nonsense pulled out of thin air. How many posters in this thread have bull****ted about Sweden's 'high proportion of immigrants' without ever actually checking if it was true?

Comprehension is most certainly an issue for you, pot kettle black comes to mind.
I am very far from being anti lockdown as you would know if you followed the thread.
Seriously, speak to a professional and tell them you read things and see stuff that's obviously not there, its only a small step away from seeing things no one else see's

PintOfView

Deleted User wrote: »

...
Speaking of anti-lockdown eejits, Johan Giesecke (former state epidemiologist for Sweden and a firm anti-lockdown advocate) sat down for an interview to review his predictions from a year ago. A snippet;

Interesting article on Johan Giesecke, and that he conceded some ground on his position a year previously.

It does seem to leave us with this
- Lockdown = Norway / Denmark / Finland = much lower excess deaths than Sweden
- NO Lockdown = Sweden = relatively high excess death rate, but was still below some other EU countries
- Lockdown = UK = very high excess death rate, 1,898/m vs 1,324/m for Sweden

So, what's the story!
Would the UK, for eg., have been better to have had no lockdown?
I can't see how that could be the case.
In the absence of restrictions, surely the UK would have fared much worse?

One clue may lie in what Giesecke says
"Sweden has had rather severe restrictions, but we based them on voluntary participation by the inhabitants instead of using laws and police. A lot of people in the world seem to think that Sweden did nothing about the Covid pandemic. That’s wrong. The entire population changed their way of living and it had profound effects on daily life for millions of Swedes, even though you weren’t fined if you were in the wrong place at the wrong time. So I would still advocate the Swedish model, even knowing all that"

Can it be the case that what the UK & Ireland call a lockdown does not differ significantly from what the Swedes call voluntary restrictions?
Did the Swedes practice a voluntary lockdown, for all intents and purposes?

There has to be some explanation!
Perhaps the Swedes managed to do well the 20% of measures that provided 80% of the benefits?
When the dust settles it will be interesting to see an objective analysis of this.

ceadaoin.

I dont know how anyone can defend lockdowns based on what's happened in Sweden. The imperial model predicted over 90,000 swedish covid deaths without a lockdown. Even with a full lockdown, 40,000 deaths were predicted. Its been completely proven wrong. The models used to shut down most of Europe and parts of the US (last year) were completely wrong. It's almost like even now, a year in, some people are still wishing for a catastrophe in Sweden so they will be proven right. Good luck with that.

https://www.aier.org/article/the-failure-of-imperial-college-modeling-is-far-worse-than-we-knew/

As Europe descended into the first round of its now year-long experiment with shelter-in-place restrictions, Sweden famously shirked the strategy recommended by Ferguson. In doing so, they also created the conditions of a natural experiment to see how their coronavirus numbers performed against the epidemiology models. Although Ferguson originally limited his scope to the US and UK, a team of researchers at Uppsala University in Sweden borrowed his model and adapted it to their country with similarly catastrophic projections. If Sweden did not lock down by mid-April, the Uppsala team projected, the country would soon experience 96,000 coronavirus deaths.

I was one of the first people to call attention to the Uppsala adaptation of Ferguson’s model back on April 30, 2020. Even at that early date, the model showed clear signs of faltering. Although Sweden was hit hard by the virus, its death toll stood at only a few thousand at a point where the adaptation from Ferguson’s model already expected tens of thousands. At the one year mark, Sweden had a little over 13,000 fatalities from Covid-19 – a serious toll, but smaller on a per-capita basis than many European lockdown states and a far cry from the 96,000 deaths projected by the Uppsala adaptation.

The implication for Ferguson’s work remains clear: the primary model used to justify lockdowns failed its first real-world test.

PintOfView

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I dont know how anyone can defend lockdowns based on what's happened in Sweden. The imperial model predicted over 90,000 swedish covid deaths without a lockdown. Even with a full lockdown, 40,000 deaths were predicted. Its been completely proven wrong. The models used to shut down most of Europe and parts of the US (last year) were completely wrong. It's almost like even now, a year in, some people are still wishing for a catastrophe in Sweden so they will be proven right. Good luck with that.

https://www.aier.org/article/the-failure-of-imperial-college-modeling-is-far-worse-than-we-knew/

If Sweden didn't do anything different to normal then you would have a point.
However Sweden did not carry on as normal.

How did Sweden's "rather severe restrictions" (according to Giesecke) compare to our lockdown,
and how does what the majority of people did in Sweden compare to what the majority did in Ireland?
I don't know the answer, but it's a question that needs an answer before one can draw any worthwhile conclusions!

Also, it sounds like the models may have overestimated the mortality rates,
however you need to be careful not to compare mortality projected in the absence of any restrictions,
to the mortality that Sweden experienced with "rather severe restrictions"!

charlie14

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I dont know how anyone can defend lockdowns based on what's happened in Sweden. The imperial model predicted over 90,000 swedish covid deaths without a lockdown. Even with a full lockdown, 40,000 deaths were predicted. Its been completely proven wrong. The models used to shut down most of Europe and parts of the US (last year) were completely wrong. It's almost like even now, a year in, some people are still wishing for a catastrophe in Sweden so they will be proven right. Good luck with that.

https://www.aier.org/article/the-failure-of-imperial-college-modeling-is-far-worse-than-we-knew/

People point to Imperial College`s modelling figures as being incorrect, but what they fail to see is it was not just Imperial College who got their modelling figures wrong. So did everyone else, and that includes Sweden.
Sweden`s PHA modelling figures were predicting herd immunity for Stockholm but when the antibody test results came back they showed the modelling figures were off by at least a factor of 4. Their modelling figure for immunity levels for subsequent waves were also well off the mark.

People still have this theory that governments just imposed lockdown based on nothing other than Imperial College`s modelling figures.
To me anyway, I find it a bit far fetched to believe European governments shut down their economies based on an academic paper, rather than doing so because they saw the devastation this virus caused in Italy where it quickly overran the health service of Bergamo and seeing so many dead they had to call in the army to remove the bodies.

humberklog

Mortality rates not looking as bad as some predicted. High infection rates at the moment and (as has previously said numerous times here) Sweden can be slow a updating death figures.

That said this still looks more positive than it does negative...

Foreigndad

humberklog wrote: »

Mortality rates not looking as bad as some predicted. High infection rates at the moment and (as has previously said numerous times here) Sweden can be slow a updating death figures.

That said this still looks more positive than it does negative...

ICU figures in Sweden have been dropping for five consecutive days now too and the cases have been dropping now for two consecutive weeks meaured as reported cases per week while testing is at record levels at the same time.

ICU per day:
https://covidstatistik.se/iva#nuvarande-pa-iva
Cases per week:
https://covidstatistik.se/fall#rapportdatum-veckovis

I'm Danish but Swedish is very similar, not sure if the website above is available in English, but Google translate should work if you want all the statistics.

CalamariFritti

greyday wrote: »

Where would you get the cumulative weekly/monthly deaths for Sweden?
Its strange that every Country in the World that see high infection rates also see high death rates other than Sweden, we know they have the same issue with vaccine supply as the rest of Europe so its unlikely they have done any better or worse than the rest of Europe in that regard, is the Swedish healthcare so much better than the German healthcare?

I can tell you something you will find hard to believe. I find it hard to believe myself tbh.

Germany had well over 30,000 ICU beds plus an emergency reserve in the 1st half of 2020. This was reduced by over 20% in the second half of 2020 down to 24,000. Apparently covid wasn't a good enough reason to at least slow down if not stop the privatisation/downscaling/neo-libbing of the health system.

Together with Muttis delegation of the vaccine procurement to her chum Ursula - which we all know how that turned out - Germany has become a sh1t show and Muttis government has lost all credibility. Which the government now tries to cover up by tightening the half hearted, never-ending lockdown with measures they already know will have no effect (curfews). Justification is - ding ding - the Icu capacity. All the while population and media are becoming ever more shrill and divided, almost US like.

I am unhappy with Ireland's ultra conservative approach and its negativity and never ending search for worst case scenarios. But compared to Germany we are at least coherent of sorts.

Germany used to be an example of how you do things right. We have now become a caricature of ourselves.

Wolf359f

Foreigndad wrote: »

ICU figures in Sweden have been dropping for five consecutive days now too and the cases have been dropping now for two consecutive weeks meaured as reported cases per week while testing is at record levels at the same time.

ICU per day:
https://covidstatistik.se/iva#nuvarande-pa-iva
Cases per week:
https://covidstatistik.se/fall#rapportdatum-veckovis

I'm Danish but Swedish is very similar, not sure if the website above is available in English, but Google translate should work if you want all the statistics.

Does the ICU chart get updated retrospectively?
Like all metrics in Swedish reporting, it always looks like a reduction as there's a reporting lag. Their ICU admissions are still trending upwards, hard to imagine ICU occupancy is dropping at the same time.

Foreigndad

Wolf359f wrote: »

Does the ICU chart get updated retrospectively?
Like all metrics in Swedish reporting, it always looks like a reduction as there's a reporting lag. Their ICU admissions are still trending upwards, hard to imagine ICU occupancy is dropping at the same time.

The ICU reporting is live where all hospitals have/or should report daily. Blue part of the staple means that it was updated today, yellow is that they have taken the latest hospital number (so if all hospitals besides Karolinska in Stockholm have reported, all numbers will be blue besides the numbers from Karolinska that will be yellow).

If you look at the second graph in the ICU link I provided you'll see that there are more people leaving ICU than entering every day for the last 5 days. So looks like the ICU admissions have started to trend downwards. This is expected since the cases have been going down for the last two weeks (usually takes 10-14 days after infection until ICU admission) while vaccination numbers are constantly going up with most regions vaccinating the 60-65 at the moment (which is the same in Denmark and I think Ireland).

This is the official Swedish ICU Society's information page about the register if you want even more detailed ICU data (like broken down per hospital etc):
https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/

Ha Long Bay

Foreigndad wrote: »

The ICU reporting is live where all hospitals have/or should report daily. Blue part of the staple means that it was updated today, yellow is that they have taken the latest hospital number (so if all hospitals besides Karolinska in Stockholm have reported, all numbers will be blue besides the numbers from Karolinska that will be yellow).

If you look at the second graph in the ICU link I provided you'll see that there are more people leaving ICU than entering every day for the last 5 days. So looks like the ICU admissions have started to trend downwards. This is expected since the cases have been going down for the last two weeks (usually takes 10-14 days after infection until ICU admission) while vaccination numbers are constantly going up with most regions vaccinating the 60-65 at the moment (which is the same in Denmark and I think Ireland).

This is the official Swedish ICU Society's information page about the register if you want even more detailed ICU data (like broken down per hospital etc):
https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/

Here is the same link translated to English which should make it easier to read for people here.


https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/


Just one thing I noticed there seems to be a much greater number of males in ICU in Sweden. Not sure why this is the case.

Foreigndad

Ha Long Bay wrote: »

Here is the same link translated to English which should make it easier to read for people here.


https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/


Just one thing I noticed there seems to be a much greater number of males in ICU in Sweden. Not sure why this is the case.

Didn't know the page existed in English, thanks! If you click in below the chart there are more details

No idea but a guess would be obesity rates. Think obesity is more common amongs men than women, same in all of Scandinavia. Also in immigrant populations (which are more affected) males tend to work while women are home. Not sure if that would contribute though.

Wolf359f

Foreigndad wrote: »

The ICU reporting is live where all hospitals have/or should report daily. Blue part of the staple means that it was updated today, yellow is that they have taken the latest hospital number (so if all hospitals besides Karolinska in Stockholm have reported, all numbers will be blue besides the numbers from Karolinska that will be yellow).

If you look at the second graph in the ICU link I provided you'll see that there are more people leaving ICU than entering every day for the last 5 days. So looks like the ICU admissions have started to trend downwards. This is expected since the cases have been going down for the last two weeks (usually takes 10-14 days after infection until ICU admission) while vaccination numbers are constantly going up with most regions vaccinating the 60-65 at the moment (which is the same in Denmark and I think Ireland).

This is the official Swedish ICU Society's information page about the register if you want even more detailed ICU data (like broken down per hospital etc):
https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/

So I assume the 3rd chart is live data also?
Lowest number of ICU admissions in 6 months?