Sweden avoiding lockdown

ush

charlie14 wrote: »

If that is the basis behind the Swedish thinking then would it not make sense to attempt to control the spread of the virus ?

Thats what they're doing. Its gonna spread sooner or later. If you lockdown entirely then you've only kicked the can down the road. When you open up again, you're back to square one.

average_runner

STB. wrote: »

That's what it is though. Their epidemiologist doesn't like the word. The very people who taught him disagree with his approach.

Herd immunity could be a total myth. No proof it works at the moment

ush

charlie14 wrote: »

I do not see where there is any targeted action in Sweden

It is certainly not through testing where they are only testing 7,300 per million whereas we are in lock-down and are at present testing 18,000 per million.

Is testing about individuals or seeing where the disease is spreading in a country? Statistical tests can show you the patterns.

ush

average_runner wrote: »

Herd immunity could be a total myth. No proof it works at the moment

So lockdown everything for two years and wait for a vaccination?

average_runner

ush wrote: »

So lockdown everything for two years and wait for a vaccination?

Nope, have test results in 24 hrs and can contain it more then. Just keep pubs and nightclubs shut till we do have a vaccine.

Social distancing every where else

charlie14

ush wrote: »

Thats what they're doing. Its gonna spread sooner or later. If you lockdown entirely then you've only kicked the can down the road. When you open up again, you're back to square one.

But that is my point, they are not doing anything to prevent the spread.

By doing so they are going to reach a stage, where based on their own estimates, within the space of a year 3% of 7.1 million will be infected (213,000) and require I.C.U. treatment.
As that 213,000 will not be on an incremental scale then there will be a stage where there I.C.U.`s are over-run resulting in their estimated death figure of 1% of the population increasing.
Even as it is, their deaths to confirmed cases ratio is running at over 10%

charlie14

ush wrote: »

Is testing about individuals or seeing where the disease is spreading in a country? Statistical tests can show you the patterns.

It is about the spread of the disease, how it is being spread, and controlling the spread.In conjunction with a lock-down by doing that you can give your health service a much better chance of not being over-run and reduce the numbers dying from a contagion.

jibber5000

jibber5000 wrote: »

That's what we did here. Nurses have been upskilled in ICU work over the past 2 months.

To say people would just be left to die if/when Sweden reaches its official ICU capacity is wrong.

And yes I do work in a hospital.

It's not easy to prone a patient/ tube them though. I'm sure they are trying to train more nurses up but if we do reach ICU capacity and have to use theatres. This will effect the mortality rate in a negative way.

charlie14

average_runner wrote: »

Herd immunity could be a total myth. No proof it works at the moment

Herd immunity is a misnomer.

In reality in human terms it would be more accurately named herd culling. Lets not fool ourselves here and call a spade a spade.
It is a system that will kill of the least productive and those that are a burden to a states finances.

JoChervil

ush wrote: »

Thats what they're doing. Its gonna spread sooner or later. If you lockdown entirely then you've only kicked the can down the road. When you open up again, you're back to square one.

Yes, but it is an unknown virus, so it can be seasonal. In this case you can kick the can in a safe place. What if it will die off for the summer to return in the autumn? So kicking the can to the summer makes sense and is less risky. And it gives time to prepare better for the later wave.

Swedish solution will only work, if the virus will stay in the world for good. But what if it will die after a season or two? Is this worth sacrificing so many people?

ush

average_runner wrote: »

Nope, have test results in 24 hrs and can contain it more then. Just keep pubs and nightclubs shut till we do have a vaccine.

Social distancing every where else

How long are those test results valid? So continuous testing then. Just close pubs and night-clubs since the swedes are exactly like the irish and spend half their evenings in the boozer.

ush

JoChervil wrote: »

Yes, but it is an unknown virus, so it can be seasonal. In this case you can kick the can in a safe place. What if it will die off for the summer to return in the autumn? So kicking the can to the summer makes sense and is less risky. And it gives time to prepare better for the later wave.

Swedish solution will only work, if the virus will stay in the world for good. But what if it will die after a season or two? Is this worth sacrificing so many people?

Seasonal doesn't mean what you think it means.

ush

charlie14 wrote: »

But that is my point, they are not doing anything to prevent the spread.

Really? Nothing. They're doing nothing? You don't know what you're talking about. Everyone I know has been given notice by their employers, is working a fraction of what they did previously and pensioners are, for the most part, indoors.

JoChervil

ush wrote: »

Seasonal doesn't mean what you think it means.

I explained clearly what I meant. No one can predict, how this virus will behave in the future.

Att vara en hest

Claiming that Sweden are doing *nothing* is ignorant, there are plenty of guidelines in place and changes to things like sick leave.

A foreign reporter did question why the authoritives keeps giving out "recomendations" rather than telling people what should be done.. This is due to something called Myndighetsspråk, in which "rekommenderar" is the most powerful word that can be used for something that is not actually legally binding / covered by law. This is important to keep in mind when reading statements from folkhälsomyndigheten.

Att vara en hest

charlie14 wrote: »

I wasn`t actually.
Another poster had commentated that he/she believed Sweden had hit it`s daily peak of deaths from the virus on April 8th.

The statement that Sweden's deaths/day peaked on the 8th of April is based on real data from FHM (department of public health).. You can find their data right here:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

What you're looking for is "avlidna/dag".

This is, as far as I'm aware, the only source which accounts for WHEN a death happened. Other sources being linked in this thread over and over again only account for when deaths were reported, which gives an inaccurate image due to Sweden's delay in reporting deaths, especially over weekends.

Obviously it's less sensational than other sources as it paints a much milder picture than what other people here seem to want.. Maybe that's why we keep seeing other sources posted?

Note also the age of people dying.



You can see highest number of deaths so far occurred on Apr 8th (102)... Note however that due to the delay in reporting, there's always a sharp dropoff at the end which will later be adjusted.

wakka12

https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/2020/04/cemiterios-de-sao-paulo-tem-ao-menos-30-enterros-por-dia-de-mortos-com-suspeita-de-covid-19.shtml

Cemeteries in Sao Paolo burying at least 30-40 people with coronavirus symptoms per day.At the time the article was published Brazils death toll was 205, just 121 in Sao Paolo

ush

JoChervil wrote: »

I explained clearly what I meant. No one can predict, how this virus will behave in the future.

Yes. You explained clearly what you meant. Its just that seasonal doesn't mean what you think it means. So your argument was nonsensical.

biko

How about you explain what you think seasonal means ush?

charlie14

ush wrote: »

Really? Nothing. They're doing nothing? You don't know what you're talking about. Everyone I know has been given notice by their employers, is working a fraction of what they did previously and pensioners are, for the most part, indoors.

Are pubs, clubs and restaurants closed ?
Are people practicing social distancing ?
Are none essential businesses closed and those that are open practicing social distancing ?



If no to any of the above, then as far as I am concerned it does not appear as if they are doing anything that will prevent the spread. Neither will pensioners for the most part staying indoors do much of anything to prevent them catching, and a high proportion dying, from the contagion.

alchemist33

charlie14 wrote: »

Herd immunity is a misnomer.

In reality in human terms it would be more accurately named herd culling. Lets not fool ourselves here and call a spade a spade.
It is a system that will kill of the least productive and those that are a burden to a states finances.

It's not a strategy either. In the absence of a vaccine, "herd immunity" is the hope that your population will develop immunity by themselves. That's all it is - hope - usually in the absence of a strategy to curtail it. Meanwhile, people die.

Att vara en hest

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

And while many other countries have introduced strict laws, including hefty fines if people are caught breaching newly minted social-distancing laws, Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland -- a popular vacation destination -- dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital.

So while there is no legal changes in place, people have changed their behavior anyways.

charlie14

Att vara en hest wrote: »

The statement that Sweden's deaths/day peaked on the 8th of April is based on real data from FHM (department of public health).. You can find their data right here:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

What you're looking for is "avlidna/dag".

This is, as far as I'm aware, the only source which accounts for WHEN a death happened. Other sources being linked in this thread over and over again only account for when deaths were reported, which gives an inaccurate image due to Sweden's delay in reporting deaths, especially over weekends.

Obviously it's less sensational than other sources as it paints a much milder picture than what other people here seem to want.. Maybe that's why we keep seeing other sources posted?

Note also the age of people dying.



You can see highest number of deaths so far occurred on Apr 8th (102)... Note however that due to the delay in reporting, there's always a sharp dropoff at the end which will later be adjusted.

If deaths had peaked on the 8th. then surely that would mean they have decreased since.
From the same source while deaths had dropped to 20 by the 13th the then rose again to 114 on the 14th. 170 on the 15th. 130 on the 16th. 67 on the 17th and 111 on the 18th.


If anything the April 8th figure looks more an outlier than a peak.

Att vara en hest

Peaked and plateued :-) Don't know where you're seieng the numbers you are mentioning? I don't see it in the same data, are you looking at avlidna/dag?

edit: raw data from FHM here - https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/data

ush

charlie14 wrote: »

as far as I am concerned

Ah, its an opinion and feeling thing.

charlie14

Att vara en hest wrote: »

Peaked and plateued :-) Don't know where you're seieng the numbers you are mentioning? I don't see it in the same data, are you looking at avlidna/dag?

edit: raw data from FHM here - https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/data

Worldometer.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/


Lists the daily confirmed cases and deaths with a link to source.

charlie14

ush wrote: »

Ah, its an opinion and feeling thing.

Ah, an avoiding the questions asked thing.

Att vara en hest

Att vara en hest wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective



So while there is no legal changes in place, people have changed their behavior anyways.

It’s not surprising. This is a country which invented flygskam, and actively practices it. Friends in Sweden, including a couple of Irish people who have settled down there, are not shy in their shaming. I think that this cultural aspect would be really a real help in confronting behaviours that are not in the social good. The government would have to do much less in terms of formal lockdown to achieve the same effect as here.

sydthebeat

charlie14 wrote: »

Worldometer.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/


Lists the daily confirmed cases and deaths with a link to source.

the source is actually the same .. the FHM

from the same source charlie:


upload photo album

looks like it is very well under control in sweden.

ush

charlie14 wrote: »

Ah, an avoiding the questions asked thing.

No point, if the assumptions are faulty or based on emotion.