Sweden avoiding lockdown

Bit cynical

Lumen wrote: »

IMO the correct way to present that data is by stacking two graphs vertically, one showing the wave under discussion, and the second the whole range with the selected wave highlighted.

Both can use the same ratio between X and Y.

That's a good solution to the problem. I doubt if there's any nefarious intent behind the way they've done it though. More likely not enough time or resources causing them to fall back on software defaults.

bb1234567

https://twitter.com/practicalbob/status/1390061441231753217/photo/1

Only very slightly larger correlation between higher COVID deaths and increased freedom of movement/activity/mandates among US states. EU equivalent would be interesting too although Europe was more consistent with harsh rules all round compared to US where there was huge variety.

humberklog

TonyMaloney wrote: »

This site does a good job of projecting what's really going on in Sweden

https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

I went back to this post to see if the linked page got its projection correct. The was posted back in late March on the back of Sweden entering a 3rd wave of infection.

Since the 7th of March Sweden has recorded 1198 deaths (Worldometer). That's a lot of people but the graphs I see don't correlate with the linked projection graph. All the graphs I look at show no spike in deaths coming from the 3rd infection spike starting back at the beginning of March.

Has Sweden avoided a catastrophic 3rd wave of mortality like the one they had in the 1st wave?

Or am I reading the data wrong?

charlie14

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/practicalbob/status/1390061441231753217/photo/1

Only very slightly larger correlation between higher COVID deaths and increased freedom of movement/activity/mandates among US states. EU equivalent would be interesting too although Europe was more consistent with harsh rules all round compared to US where there was huge variety.

If the U.S. Covid deaths are compared to the U.K. and the countries in the European Economic Area, they would be 9th highest of 32. Just behind the U.K. and they were a shambles up until vaccinations.
Not that outstanding a performance.

Bit cynical

humberklog wrote: »

I went back to this post to see if the linked page got its projection correct. The was posted back in late March on the back of Sweden entering a 3rd wave of infection.

Since the 7th of March Sweden has recorded 1198 deaths (Worldometer). That's a lot of people but the graphs I see don't correlate with the linked projection graph. All the graphs I look at show no spike in deaths coming from the 3rd infection spike starting back at the beginning of March.

Has Sweden avoided a catastrophic 3rd wave of mortality like the one they had in the 1st wave?

Or am I reading the data wrong?

That page has been around a long time and the grey bar predictions have usually, I'm afraid, been wrong.

A few people have been predicting a third wave of deaths based on case numbers but I don't think that is going to happen at this stage for several reasons but mainly because vaccines are starting to have an effect and secondly the warmer weather is keeping deaths relatively low.

biko

How would the first corona wave in the spring of 2020 have been affected if Sweden had followed other countries and shut society down in a so-called "lockdown"?

The number of infections would have decreased by 75 percent and the number of deaths by 40 percent during the first wave, according to a recent research study from Germany.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/schweden-corona-gastbeitrag-1.5282013
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/forskarna-40-procent-farre-doda-om-sverige-stangt-ner/

biko

biko wrote: »

How would the first corona wave in the spring of 2020 have been affected if Sweden had followed other countries and shut society down in a so-called "lockdown"?

The number of infections would have decreased by 75 percent and the number of deaths by 40 percent during the first wave, according to a recent research study from Germany.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/schweden-corona-gastbeitrag-1.5282013
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/forskarna-40-procent-farre-doda-om-sverige-stangt-ner/

Is that more modelling?

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

That page has been around a long time and the grey bar predictions have usually, I'm afraid, been wrong.

A few people have been predicting a third wave of deaths based on case numbers but I don't think that is going to happen at this stage for several reasons but mainly because vaccines are starting to have an effect and secondly the warmer weather is keeping deaths relatively low.

Other than vaccines and warmer weather it is difficult to see many other reasons. It`s certainly not due to people following restriction/recommendations when you see their daily new cases, those hospitalised, those in I.C.U. and their percentage of positive cases.

humberklog

So Sweden has recently topped 1 million reported infections. That's roughly 1 in 10 of the population and I'd say that's more of a low ball number in comparison to other EU countries because they've tested less per %.

But I thought it interesting to compare infections V. deaths. Differences in country's reporting is understood so I'm just going on Worldometer figures as of today.

Ireland (pop. -5m): 252,809 reported infections. 4,921 deaths. About 1.9% mortality rate.

Denmark (pop. +5.8m): 259,056 rep. infections. 2,497 deaths. About 0.9% mortality rate.

Sweden (pop. +10m) : 1,000,792 rep. infections. 14,173 deaths. About 1.4% mortality rate.

Hopefully my sums are wrong so I can get a good slap in the face but if they're not then am I wrong in deducing (in the now) that Sweden isn't doing too bad?

Mike3549

humberklog wrote: »

So Sweden has recently topped 1 million reported infections. That's roughly 1 in 10 of the population and I'd say that's more of a low ball number in comparison to other EU countries because they've tested less per %.

But I thought it interesting to compare infections V. deaths. Differences in country's reporting is understood so I'm just going on Worldometer figures as of today.

Ireland (pop. -5m): 252,809 reported infections. 4,921 deaths. About 1.9% mortality rate.

Denmark (pop. +5.8m): 259,056 rep. infections. 2,497 deaths. About 0.9% mortality rate.

Sweden (pop. +10m) : 1,000,792 rep. infections. 14,173 deaths. About 1.4% mortality rate.

Hopefully my sums are wrong so I can get a good slap in the face but if they're not then am I wrong in deducing (in the now) that Sweden isn't doing too bad?

You are using bad metrics.
You should look at deaths/million pop.
By you logic chech republic, which is 3rd worst after hungary and Gibraltar (which should be ignored with population of only 33k people), is doing better than us, with mortality rate of 1.8%. (10.7m pop; 1.6m cases, almost 30k deaths)

humberklog

Mike3549 wrote: »

You are using bad metrics.
You should look at deaths/million pop.
By you logic chech republic, which is 3rd worst after hungary and Gibraltar (which should be ignored with population of only 33k people), is doing better than us, with mortality rate of 1.8%. (10.7m pop; 1.6m cases, almost 30k deaths)

But Mike, I'm not not saying "better" or "worst". I threw up Ireland because that's where we are and Denmark because generally Sweden is compared against its neighbours (in fairness I didn't pop in Norway or Finland because any way you look at it every EU country is fairing miserably in comparison to them).

So sure I *coulda* used a different metric but I went with what I did and I'm happy to look at anyone's data/metric when it comes to Sweden.

I'm now fairly dismissive of future projections about Sweden at this stage (especially on this thread) because since September/October last year a lot of the more negative expectations by some posters simply haven't come to what some had predicted.

I'm happy to have a look at any numbers. But those are the ones I'm looking at for now.

I'm aware that at a quick look Sweden has about 30% higher mortality than Ireland and Denmark (which is why I put in their population figures). Sweden got off to a shocking bad start and a very tough first few months.

Mike3549

You do realise, that if sweden had 10 times more infections and 10 times more deaths, their mortality rate would still be the same at 1.4%???? Would you still say that they are doing better, cos their mortality rate is a bit lower than ours?
Edit: based on worldmeter, the worlds mortality rate is 1.8% and looks like its similar everywhere. every country report cases and deaths differently, lots of deaths/cases are unreported, and even if they are reported later, they werent updated on the worldmeter. Eg. Russia reported additional 50-60k covid related deaths, worldmeter wasnt updated, same with mexico.

humberklog

Mike3549 wrote: »

You do realise, that if sweden had 10 times more infections and 10 times more deaths, their mortality rate would still be the same at 1.4%???? Would you still say that they are doing better, cos their mortality rate is a bit lower than ours?
Edit: based on worldmeter, the worlds mortality rate is 1.8% and looks like its similar everywhere. every country report cases and deaths differently, lots of deaths/cases are unreported, and even if they are reported later, they werent updated on the worldmeter. Eg. Russia reported additional 50-60k covid related deaths, worldmeter wasnt updated, same with mexico.[/QUOTE

Now that's a great point, but most of all- better made. Thanks!

Now I'm back down the rabbit hole of looking at emigration figures for Ireland, Sweden and Denmark from the 1930's and looking at the age profile difference and age profile of deaths.

Thankfully there'll be some Tefal heads, who know what their doing, working on the figures when this all blows over.

biko

The press secretary for Swedish Health Authority Christer Janson have been reported to the Swedish Justice Ombudsman.

This after it was discovered he last year reported several Swedish individuals, including a journalist, to the Unit for Protection against Misinformation as "foreign agents".
The reason was they publicly had been critical against the Health Authority.

When quizzed about this Mr Janson claim he "doesn't remember".

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://nyheteridag.se/folkhalsomyndigheten-anmalde-kritiker-till-msb/

DylanJM

Sweden's 7 day avg. case numbers have dropped from ~5,500 to ~3,000 over the last 30 days. 7 day death number has gone from 20 to 13 over the same period. (Using Google's number for this).

99nsr125

DylanJM wrote: »

Sweden's 7 day avg. case numbers have dropped from ~5,500 to ~3,000 over the last 30 days. 7 day death number has gone from 20 to 13 over the same period. (Using Google's number for this).

Yep
Entirely predictable
We're cycling out of flu season
Same thing will be happening all across the world.

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

Yep
Entirely predictable
We're cycling out of flu season
Same thing will be happening all across the world.

15 months into a pandemic where vaccines are showing the way out off, and you are still talking about a flu season.


Comic relief doesn`t come close.:pac:

99nsr125

charlie14 wrote: »

15 months into a pandemic where vaccines are showing the way out off, and you are still talking about a flu season.


Comic relief doesn`t come close.:pac:

That's because we have a flu season every year
See history and decades of statistics.

I think it's even on Reeling In The Years under Trolleywatch.

What's comical is that you try to deny it's existence

Lumen

99nsr125 wrote: »

Yep
Entirely predictable
We're cycling out of flu season
Same thing will be happening all across the world.

India's flu season is June - October.

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

That's because we have a flu season every year
See history and decades of statistics.

I think it's even on Reeling In The Years under Trolleywatch.

What's comical is that you try to deny it's existence

What is comical is this particular poster likes to believe Covid-19 has the same mortality rates as a flu.

Sweden had below average deaths for the first 12 weeks of 2020, (their flu season) yet ended up with over 10% excess deaths.

charlie14

Lumen wrote: »

India's flu season is June - October.

One hell of a flu season in India this year and it`s not even June.:rolleyes:

ghostfacekilla

Stockholm currently vaccinating anyone born in 1976 or older.
Vaccinating happening by age.
Decent progress on that front.

PintOfView

99nsr125 wrote: »

That's because we have a flu season every year
See history and decades of statistics.

I think it's even on Reeling In The Years under Trolleywatch.

What's comical is that you try to deny it's existence

I think you may not have been paying attention to the news for the past 15 months!!
Do you actually believe that it was just the flu?

ghostfacekilla

ghostfacekilla wrote: »

Stockholm currently vaccinating anyone born in 1976 or older.
Vaccinating happening by age.
Decent progress on that front.

Exact same as here then

humberklog

TonyMaloney wrote: »

This site does a good job of projecting what's really going on in Sweden

https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

Quoting a post back from March this year.

Has this upward projection come to fruition? As much as I look it hasn't.

All I can see is Sweden doing appallingly bad in 1st wave with regards to deaths but on the whole, fairly ok after that.

That's in the grander scheme of EU figures.

@TonyMaloney have you any present day projection maps for Sweden?

CalamariFritti

charlie14 wrote: »

One hell of a flu season in India this year and it`s not even June.:rolleyes:

One hell of a covid season in India. Where over the hole pandemic 0.025% of the population died. 2 in 10,000 people.

Must be like 'The Walking Dead' over there.

DeVore

Not over the whole pandemic. That 0.025% is their *daily* fatality rate and still rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

Currently running at 330,000 per day, on a population of roughly 1Bn. thats ~0.03% *per day*

Stormyteacup

DeVore wrote: »

Not over the whole pandemic. That 0.025% is their *daily* fatality rate and still rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

Currently running at 330,000 per day, on a population of roughly 1Bn. thats ~0.03% *per day*

Total Covid related deaths in India to date are 335,000.

charlie14

CalamariFritti wrote: »

One hell of a covid season in India. Where over the hole pandemic 0.025% of the population died. 2 in 10,000 people.

Must be like 'The Walking Dead' over there.

Sweet Jesus will you ever cop yourself on! The past week alone 25,000 people have died in India due to Covid and there have been over 1 Million new cases.

Boggles

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Total Covid related deaths in India to date are 335,000.

You reckon that figure is accurate?