Sweden avoiding lockdown

thebaz

Still the expected carnage of deaths has not happened, 29 deaths today is less than us, I like many would have expected much more by now, this has not happened - still, Way to early to judge, as it is to accuse ther Government of murder.

coastwatch

Good news for Stockholm, Sweden and everywhere else if it turns out to be true

Parts of Sweden could achieve 'herd immunity' next month, leading doctor says
Dr Anders Tegnell says immunity in Stockholm is 'having an effect' on virus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html

charlie14

sydthebeat wrote: »

the source is actually the same .. the FHM

from the same source charlie:


upload photo album

looks like it is very well under control in sweden.

If you scroll down that worldometer site to updates those are not the figures given for deaths.
On the 18th. rather than 9 deaths it lists 111 new deaths.
!7th rather than 23 it lists 67, 16th 130 rather than 61 etc.

Att vara en hest

charlie14 wrote: »

If you scroll down that worldometer site to updates those are not the figures given for deaths.
On the 18th. rather than 9 deaths it lists 111 new deaths.
!7th rather than 23 it lists 67, 16th 130 rather than 61 etc.

As has been repeated multiple times in this thread already.. Worldometer's charts only accounts for when deaths were REPORTED, that's why you see huge drops at weekends... FHM's raw data and dashboard shows deaths they they OCCURRED.

This makes a huge difference due to the way number of deaths are being reported from Sweden.

If you look at the actual source data and charts from the real official source you'd see this.

thebaz

coastwatch wrote: »

Good news for Stockholm, Sweden and everywhere else if it turns out to be true

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html

Given what WHO were saying yesterday, about probably no immunity after infection, in a months time we will know who had the right strategy - Swedens strategy is risky but if it works could be a game-changer and more questions will be asked of WHO leadership.

charlie14

ush wrote: »

No point, if the assumptions are faulty or based on emotion.

I was not making assumptions. Simply asking you what the Swedish situation is regards pubs, clubs, none essential businesses and social distancing.
If you do not wish to answer then that is your choice.

Turtwig

thebaz wrote: »

Given what WHO were saying yesterday, about probably no immunity after infection, in a months time we will know who had the right strategy - Swedens strategy is risky but if it works could be a game-changer and more questions will be asked of WHO leadership.

i) WHO aren't saying probably no immunity.
ii) Every country and society is different. Swedes approach is different. If it works it's not necessarily a game changer. Their society and demographics are suitably different. To infer such an approach could work here, or elsewhere, would be a very risky assumption.

jibber5000

STB. wrote: »

For someone who claims to work in a hospital, you should understand the specialised levels required to deal with ICU patients nevermind the training required to use ventilators alone you wouldn't have posted such nonsense. How to cope with the trauma isn't something learned on the fly either.

Perhaps you will have more time for your colleagues the next time you are wheeling patients around."




You should be more concerned about the contractions by medical staff, if you are hospital staff. They account for a high percentage of our infections.

Reference made was to the posters belief that patients would not be sent to ICU based on official incapacity statistics. That is a lie. All I pointed out that in Ireland a portion of nurses have been upskilled the last two months to deal with ICU patients. Do you think that is False?

You've completely contradicted yourself.
There are more healthcare workers infected than those in nursing homes. Yet the 70 times more nursing home patients over healthcare stuff have died. Of course id be more concerned if I was an elderly nursing home resident.

charlie14

Att vara en hest wrote: »

As has been repeated multiple times in this thread already.. Worldometer's charts only accounts for when deaths were REPORTED, that's why you see huge drops at weekends... FHM's raw data and dashboard shows deaths they they OCCURRED.

This makes a huge difference due to the way number of deaths are being reported from Sweden.

If you look at the actual source data and charts from the real official source you'd see this.

If as you say there is a huge drop off in cases reported at weekends, then surely that would not auger well for the worldometer Saturday 18th figure of 111 deaths, or the Friday 16th. figure of 130.

StefanFal

whippet wrote: »

I have family living in rural Sweden and they are disgusted with the Swedish approach ... the Swedish mentality is that they are smart enough to be able to function as normal and not spread the infection !

It stems from the swede’s culture of generally being very antisocial at the best of times and a condescending view of other cultures.

While my relatives can self isolate and minimise the number of times they have to shop for essentials they still have to send the kids to school.

There is a growing number of People in Sweden who don’t agree with the government’s approach.

Yes. The expats

Bit cynical

coastwatch wrote: »

Good news for Stockholm, Sweden and everywhere else if it turns out to be true

Parts of Sweden could achieve 'herd immunity' next month, leading doctor says
Dr Anders Tegnell says immunity in Stockholm is 'having an effect' on virus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html

Good news for other countries too if true.

Att vara en hest

charlie14 wrote: »

If as you say there is a huge drop off in cases reported at weekends, then surely that would not auger well for the worldometer Saturday 18th figure of 111 deaths, or the Friday 16th. figure of 130.

I don't understand what you're arguing.. Literraly all you need to do on worldometer and go down to the actual source to see the same data posted earlier.

The charts on worldometer does not reflect when death occurred, only when it was reported. The source is FHM, the department of public health. Their data is the most correct one as it does go back and add deaths when they actually happened.

Bit cynical

sydthebeat wrote: »

the source is actually the same .. the FHM

from the same source charlie:


upload photo album

looks like it is very well under control in sweden.

I think we need to be careful of the most recent figures in that data as deaths in the last few days won't yet be included in them resulting in very low numbers. Having said that, it does look like the numbers are declining or at the very least leveling off.

jibber5000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's not easy to prone a patient/ tube them though. I'm sure they are trying to train more nurses up but if we do reach ICU capacity and have to use theatres. This will effect the mortality rate in a negative way.

We've medical students proning patients presume the same There?

I don't see how it will definitely affect the mortality rate. All an ICU would need to function is staff and equipment. Location doesn't really matter as long as it's not the other side of the hospital. All intensive care units are located close to op theatre space.
An operating theatre would be actually ideal. Lots of space, and no elective procedures planned for the next period of time.

STB.

jibber5000 wrote: »

Reference made was to the posters belief that patients would not be sent to ICU based on official incapacity statistics. That is a lie. All I pointed out that in Ireland a portion of nurses have been upskilled the last two months to deal with ICU patients. Do you think that is False?

You've completely contradicted yourself.
There are more healthcare workers infected than those in nursing homes. Yet the 70 times more nursing home patients over healthcare stuff have died. Of course id be more concerned if I was an elderly nursing home resident.

I know its false.


Source for all of your made up shít please .

charlie14

Att vara en hest wrote: »

I don't understand what you're arguing.. Literraly all you need to do on worldometer and go down to the actual source to see the same data posted earlier.

The charts on worldometer does not reflect when death occurred, only when it was reported. The source is FHM, the department of public health. Their data is the most correct one as it does go back and add deaths when they actually happened.

Unless you are looking at a different wordometer than I am, when I scroll down to updates it is showing the figures for deaths by date I have stated
130 for 16th., 67 for 17th. and 111 for the 18th.

crashster

Worth listening to this interview. It will give you good insight into the Swedish approach and thinking. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Irish guy living in Stockholm with my missus and kids. We're living in self imposed lock down for the last week's. Although starting to come around to this thinking if we're being honest.

jibber5000

STB. wrote: »

I know its false.


Source for all of your made up shít please .

Accelerated online free courses
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/ucc-and-ucd-to-give-free-course-to-help-more-nurses-treat-coronavirus-patients-989598.html

Also

Dr John Bates consultant anesthesist to rte radio 1

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.ie/news/5232232/coronavirus-in-ireland-icu-consultant-beds-nurses-capacity/amp/

"He said they are not going to get as many nurses as are needed so they "are redeploying nurses who have comparable skills to critical care. We are using this time to upskill them."

Putting something in Bold doesn't make it true.

Att vara en hest

charlie14 wrote: »

Unless you are looking at a different wordometer than I am, when I scroll down to updates it is showing the figures for deaths by date I have stated
130 for 16th., 67 for 17th. and 111 for the 18th.

You see that little thing that says [source] ?? That's the source.. Follow the link and it will lead to FHM's own dashboard.. The raw data of which you can find right here:
https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/data

The very same excel sheet screenshotted just a few posts up... How much further are you going to drag this ? Again.. Worldometer reports deaths as they are REPORTED without accounting for when deaths actually occured.

StefanFal

crashster wrote: »

Worth listening to this interview. It will give you good insight into the Swedish approach and thinking. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Irish guy living in Stockholm with my missus and kids. We're living in self imposed lock down for the last week's. Although starting to come around to this thinking if we're being honest.

Irish in Sweden Also. Had my doubts initially but all for it now. In the absence of a vaccine theres no point kicking the can down the road.

Mongfinder General

crashster wrote: »

Worth listening to this interview. It will give you good insight into the Swedish approach and thinking. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Irish guy living in Stockholm with my missus and kids. We're living in self imposed lock down for the last week's. Although starting to come around to this thinking if we're being honest.

Similar approach being adopted in Israel. Swedes aren't touchy/feely like the Spanish and Italians so that probably helps. The rest of Western Europe will follow suit in about a months time when they eventually get fed up with the the rudderless leadership.

thebaz

Turtwig wrote: »

i) WHO aren't saying probably no immunity.

From ther conference yesterday, sounds to me like they are doubting immunity:-

"Senior epidemiologists from the World Health Organization have said there is no proof people who have recovered from coronavirus have immunity and cannot be infected again."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/unverified-antibody-tests-risk-increasing-coronavirus-infections

charlie14

Att vara en hest wrote: »

You see that little thing that says [source] ?? That's the source.. Follow the link and it will lead to FHM's own dashboard.. The raw data of which you can find right here:
https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/data

The very same excel sheet screenshotted just a few posts up... How much further are you going to drag this ? Again.. Worldometer reports deaths as they are REPORTED without accounting for when deaths actually occured.

I am not dragging anything anywhere. I am just quoting the updated fiqures for daily deaths from that site that seem very much in variance with the original post I replied to that deaths had peaked around the 8th of April.



Those Worldometer reported deaths for this weekend appear to be very much at variance with your statement that reported death are lower at weekends if the numbers are actually dropping.

thebaz

Turtwig wrote: »

i)
ii) Every country and society is different. Swedes approach is different. If it works it's not necessarily a game changer. Their society and demographics are suitably different. To infer such an approach could work here, or elsewhere, would be a very risky assumption.

and if ther approach works, of course it is a game-changer , given it will mean herd-immunity works . I realise diffeent countrys need different approaches, in pariculr to flattening the curve and relieving stress on the emergency services.

STB.

jibber5000 wrote: »

Accelerated online free courses
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/ucc-and-ucd-to-give-free-course-to-help-more-nurses-treat-coronavirus-patients-989598.html

Also

Dr John Bates consultant anesthesist to rte radio 1

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.ie/news/5232232/coronavirus-in-ireland-icu-consultant-beds-nurses-capacity/amp/

"He said they are not going to get as many nurses as are needed so they "are redeploying nurses who have comparable skills to critical care. We are using this time to upskill them."

Putting something in Bold doesn't make it true.

Well I can tell you that teaching a nurse how to become an Critical Care specialist can not be done online in a week.

To even qualify for a Postgraduate Diploma in Nursing for Intensive Care Nursing, you must be recommended, have a minimum of six months of post-registration experience and at least 6 months experience in the speciality pathway. It takes two years to complete.

Only the most experienced would be let near ICU, and still wouldn't know how to use essential equipment life saving equipment or learn it online.

Staff have been moved around yes. That has been a requirement as so many staff are either sick or isolating through close contact with a colleague/patient. Healthcare workers are a quarter of all cases. One third of all Covid infected medical staff are nurses. There have been several deaths, two in St Lukes in the last couple of days.

I know this as I have family actually that do these jobs.

Breezin

crashster wrote: »

Worth listening to this interview. It will give you good insight into the Swedish approach and thinking. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Irish guy living in Stockholm with my missus and kids. We're living in self imposed lock down for the last week's. Although starting to come around to this thinking if we're being honest.

Well worth it, thanks. What a reality check! I've embedded it so there's no avoiding it for lockdown lovers! Edit: not working. Don't know why



Even though that right-wing, libertarian website would not be my style, I think the professor puts the case very clearly for the ultimate futility of the lockdown.

Here's the summary:
- UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
- The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
- This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
- The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
- The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
- The paper was very much too pessimistic
- Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
- The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
- The results will eventually be similar for all countries
- Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
- The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
- At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

dubrov

Breezin wrote: »

Well worth it, thanks. What a reality check! I've embedded it so there's no avoiding it for lockdown lovers! Edit: not working. Don't know why



Even though that right-wing, libertarian website would not be my style, I think the professor puts the case very clearly for the ultimate futility of the lockdown.

Here's the summary:
- UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
- The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
- This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
- The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
- The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
- The paper was very much too pessimistic
- Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
- The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
- The results will eventually be similar for all countries
- Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
- The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
- At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

Most of his argument is based on the last two points yet he offers no evidence for it.
He is as bad as those who say the Swedish made a massive mistake and are killing people.

Based on current knowledge, no one knows what is the correct way to go.
I'm sure the press will vilify those that took the wrong decision later whatever that may be.

jibber5000

STB. wrote: »

Well I can tell you that teaching a nurse how to become an Critical Care specialist can not be done online in a week.

To even qualify for a Postgraduate Diploma in Nursing for Intensive Care Nursing, you must be recommended, have a minimum of six months of post-registration experience and at least 6 months experience in the speciality pathway. It takes two years to complete.

Only the most experienced would be let near ICU, and still wouldn't know how to use essential equipment life saving equipment or learn it online.

Staff have been moved around yes. That has been a requirement as so many staff are either sick or isolating through close contact with a colleague/patient. Healthcare workers are a quarter of all cases. One third of all Covid infected medical staff are nurses. There have been several deaths, two in St Lukes in the last couple of days.

I know this as I have family actually that do these jobs.

You are telling me that it can't be done.

The anaestheists, hospitals and universities are all doing it and have been for the past 2 months.

Again I know this as I work in a hospital.

Apology for stating that I was talking out of my hole?

alwald

dubrov wrote: »

Most of his argument is based on the last two points yet he offers no evidence for it.
He is as bad as those who say the Swedish made a massive mistake and are killing people.

Based on current knowledge, no one knows what is the correct way to go.
I'm sure the press will vilify those that took the wrong decision later whatever that may be.

I couldn't agree more and I won't be happy if I am asked to blindly contract the virus because there is a chance to achieve herd immunity through infection without the backing of any scientific research. I won't even mention the possibility that this virus might have long term effects on those who contracted it.
There are too many variables and unknowns at this stage.

wakka12

thebaz wrote: »

Given what WHO were saying yesterday, about probably no immunity after infection, in a months time we will know who had the right strategy - Swedens strategy is risky but if it works could be a game-changer and more questions will be asked of WHO leadership.

Well, theres a difference between WHO saying there is no immunity and no evidence yet of immunity