Sweden avoiding lockdown

Breezin

dubrov wrote: »

Most of his argument is based on the last two points yet he offers no evidence for it.
He is as bad as those who say the Swedish made a massive mistake and are killing people.

Based on current knowledge, no one knows what is the correct way to go.
I'm sure the press will vilify those that took the wrong decision later whatever that may be.

Most of his argument is based on exposing the fragility of the unpublished Imperial paper on which the lockdown policy is premised.

OEP

Breezin wrote: »

Well worth it, thanks. What a reality check! I've embedded it so there's no avoiding it for lockdown lovers! Edit: not working. Don't know why



Even though that right-wing, libertarian website would not be my style, I think the professor puts the case very clearly for the ultimate futility of the lockdown.

Here's the summary:
- UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
- The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
- This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
- The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
- The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
- The paper was very much too pessimistic
- Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
- The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
- The results will eventually be similar for all countries
- Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
- The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
- At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

This professor seems to be making up some of his own figures!

Loafing Oaf

crashster wrote: »

Worth listening to this interview. It will give you good insight into the Swedish approach and thinking. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Irish guy living in Stockholm with my missus and kids. starting to come around to this thinking if we're being honest.

Even though he's taken your wife and children?:P

wakka12

Breezin wrote: »

Well worth it, thanks. What a reality check! I've embedded it so there's no avoiding it for lockdown lovers! Edit: not working. Don't know why



Even though that right-wing, libertarian website would not be my style, I think the professor puts the case very clearly for the ultimate futility of the lockdown.

Here's the summary:
- UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
- The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
- This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
- The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
- The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
- The paper was very much too pessimistic
- Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
- The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
- The results will eventually be similar for all countries
- Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
- The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
- At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

I really cant get my head around people claiming the mortality rate of this disease as being 0.1%.
Have they looked around and seen whats going around in the world or?
Theres been 13,000 deaths in NYC, a city of 8.3 million. Thats is 0.16% of the city population. So even if literally the entire population of NYC got this disease(which of course they did not) and nobody else dies from today on(which of course many will) it is impossible for the disease to be as mild as flu

Similarly Lombardy, population 10 million, deaths 12,000, again 0.12% of the population of this region has already died from the virus

There is like 0 chance this virus has a mortality rate under 0.5%

thebaz

wakka12 wrote: »

Well, theres a difference between WHO saying there is no immunity and no evidence yet of immunity

read my post - I said - probably - and, thats what the inference was.

thebaz

wakka12 wrote: »

I really cant get my head around people claiming the mortality rate of this disease as being 0.1%.
Have they looked around and seen whats going around in the world or?
Theres been 13,000 deaths in NYC, a city of 8.3 million. Thats is 0.16% of the city population. So even if literally the entire population of NYC got this disease(which of course they did not) and nobody else dies from today on(which of course many will) it is impossible for the disease to be as mild as flu

Similarly Lombardy, population 10 million, deaths 12,000, again 0.12% of the population of this region has already died from the virus

Well, this new finding from Stanford suggest the mortality rate may be between 0.12 and.0.2

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

STB.

jibber5000 wrote: »

You are telling me that it can't be done.

The anaestheists, hospitals and universities are all doing it and have been for the past 2 months.

Again I know this as I work in a hospital.

Apology for stating that I was talking out of my hole?

I am telling you I have family doing the job, one of which worked 13 hours flat out yesterday no break and you are talking nonsense.

I am telling you that ICU skills cannot be learned online on crammed in a period of a week. You obviously have no idea of the critical care training required. Many have been pulled from other areas due to the amount of either positive or sick staff.

And nothing of the sort has been going on for 2 months. What do you do in the hospital that you do not know this ? Admin ?

coastwatch

thebaz wrote: »

Well, this new finding from Stanford suggest the mortality rate may be between 0.12 and.0.2

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

That study was discussed in the main thread yesterday.

According to some of the comments (in study link) the sample population may not be random, because of how they were recruited.

Typical comment,

Daniel Shanklin

This study abstract should be rewritten as follow: "A study of Facebook users who thought they might have COVID-19 resulted in a roughly 2.49% to 4.16% positive-test rate"

The fact that you've extrapolated this to an entire population is confounding.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=45b81150d737c1567464dcc66d7a2690a43a7e8d-1587331547-0-AUpUEf7ae7PLAg7qKp3l-fi-ATSDonMFx0K0yPvFzZVT9Aehzz-IffwhFB7FfqWdM-Jsp0H6sRaWD5fHj9aenHTYbRCCbQB9EODs7-0gzS_wJCzacSMEwjrP53ECjc-pi8-dDsL5Mc7u2K3JyDWd6OljVZ0ADrS5u-g6GFt4shSY51rZRm7amY-R_7Yb6exrtt69eeBSvQmnaDHpJOcLD7TMUbbZM32XeunBfr7KlnECaCTFO2ny7y50us7vVM45gYkPoKZhgfw43_ZWw2AGOTzm4NF5aqY0QhB4TXSeqd6ji1XAJEfv6xoB54aEfdI4iHTcA28fSthJIpMuLo_x2QA

thebaz

coastwatch wrote: »

That study was discussed in the main thread yesterday.

According to some of the comments (in study link) the sample population may not be random, because of how they were recruited.

Typical comment,

Daniel Shanklin

This study abstract should be rewritten as follow: "A study of Facebook users who thought they might have COVID-19 resulted in a roughly 2.49% to 4.16% positive-test rate"

The fact that you've extrapolated this to an entire population is confounding.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=45b81150d737c1567464dcc66d7a2690a43a7e8d-1587331547-0-AUpUEf7ae7PLAg7qKp3l-fi-ATSDonMFx0K0yPvFzZVT9Aehzz-IffwhFB7FfqWdM-Jsp0H6sRaWD5fHj9aenHTYbRCCbQB9EODs7-0gzS_wJCzacSMEwjrP53ECjc-pi8-dDsL5Mc7u2K3JyDWd6OljVZ0ADrS5u-g6GFt4shSY51rZRm7amY-R_7Yb6exrtt69eeBSvQmnaDHpJOcLD7TMUbbZM32XeunBfr7KlnECaCTFO2ny7y50us7vVM45gYkPoKZhgfw43_ZWw2AGOTzm4NF5aqY0QhB4TXSeqd6ji1XAJEfv6xoB54aEfdI4iHTcA28fSthJIpMuLo_x2QA

Well I don't know for sure, but would trust the Guardian and Stanford - we will have a better idea in a month when hopefully widespread anti-body testing can be conducted.
On the other side, ther were some here talking mortality rates of 20% last week, anyway lets wait and see in a month when we should have more exact data.

Danno

dubrov wrote: »

Most of his argument is based on the last two points yet he offers no evidence for it.
He is as bad as those who say the Swedish made a massive mistake and are killing people.

Based on current knowledge, no one knows what is the correct way to go.
I'm sure the press will vilify those that took the wrong decision later whatever that may be.

This I doubt. The blatant gunning down of BoJo and Trump despite them taking much stricter measures than Löfven tells you already which post the MSM has nailed it's flag to.

Beaverpunisher

STB. wrote: »

I am telling you I have family doing the job, one of which worked 13 hours flat out yesterday no break and you are talking nonsense.

I am telling you that ICU skills cannot be learned online on crammed in a period of a week. You obviously have no idea of the critical care training required. Many have been pulled from other areas due to the amount of either positive or sick staff.

And nothing of the sort has been going on for 2 months. What do you do in the hospital that you do not know this ? Admin ?

There are nurses currently working in Dublin ICU’s who have no ICU experience (As a result of covid-19).
In some cases there is only one trained ICU nurse for five patients. This is fact. ICU capacity has increased, where are all these trained ICU nurses coming from?

boege

Beaverpunisher wrote: »

There are nurses currently working in Dublin ICU’s who have no ICU experience (As a result of covid-19).
In some cases there is only one trained ICU nurse for five patients. This is fact. ICU capacity has increased, where are all these trained ICU nurses coming from?

My wife is a theater nurse and I asked here this question. There are many nurses that had ICU course done in the past but who never worked in ICU and a lot of training has been going on since mid January.

My wife has nearly 40 years experience as a nurse. She would be fairly critical of the HSE at the best of times but she has been impressed by the way the HSE has prepared for this pandemic.

jibber5000

STB. wrote: »

I am telling you I have family doing the job, one of which worked 13 hours flat out yesterday no break and you are talking nonsense.

I am telling you that ICU skills cannot be learned online on crammed in a period of a week. You obviously have no idea of the critical care training required. Many have been pulled from other areas due to the amount of either positive or sick staff.

And nothing of the sort has been going on for 2 months. What do you do in the hospital that you do not know this ? Admin ?

What nonsense am I talking?

I work as a doctor

I never said nurses arnt working hard. I stated that nurses were being upskilled in ICU care.

This was likely premature as we grossly exxagerated how many ICU beds we would need.

All models were on the basis that out of every 100 covid patients - 5 would need ICU. Problem with that model is that those who need ICU are mostly the very elderly who were not for escalation of care anyway.

This is the reason why only 46 people have died in our ICU's.

jibber5000

Beaverpunisher wrote: »

There are nurses currently working in Dublin ICU’s who have no ICU experience (As a result of covid-19).
In some cases there is only one trained ICU nurse for five patients. This is fact. ICU capacity has increased, where are all these trained ICU nurses coming from?

Very true.

Beaumont has been worst hit. Most ICUs here have been very quiet in comparison.

biko

https://www.sll.se/verksamhet/halsa-och-vard/nyheter-halsa-och-vard/2020/04/19-april-lagesrapport-om-arbetet-med-det-nya-coronaviruset/
Use Google translate if you need but this is the main bit:

Stockholm
5826 infected
921 dead
That's 15.8%

Bit cynical

biko wrote: »

https://www.sll.se/verksamhet/halsa-och-vard/nyheter-halsa-och-vard/2020/04/19-april-lagesrapport-om-arbetet-med-det-nya-coronaviruset/
Use Google translate if you need but this is the main bit:

Stockholm
5826 infected
921 dead
That's 15.8%

I think we need to be careful about using confirmed cases as a basis for calculating percentage dead from the virus particularly in the case of Sweden which does a relatively low amount of testing.

Del Griffith

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think we need to be careful about using confirmed cases as a basis for calculating percentage dead from the virus particularly in the case of Sweden which does a relatively low amount of testing.

This is pointed out every time he posts that pointless and misleading fatality rate, but they still come every day.

STB.

Beaverpunisher wrote: »

There are nurses currently working in Dublin ICU’s who have no ICU experience (As a result of covid-19).
In some cases there is only one trained ICU nurse for five patients. This is fact. ICU capacity has increased, where are all these trained ICU nurses coming from?

Thanks for signing to let us know.

Critical Care is one nurse per patient.

jibber5000 wrote: »

Very true.

Beaumont has been worst hit. Most ICUs here have been very quiet in comparison.

Says someone with a law background in Cork apparently working in a hospital. 3 of the big hospitals in Dublin reached their ICU capacity this month.

niallo27

biko wrote: »

https://www.sll.se/verksamhet/halsa-och-vard/nyheter-halsa-och-vard/2020/04/19-april-lagesrapport-om-arbetet-med-det-nya-coronaviruset/
Use Google translate if you need but this is the main bit:

Stockholm
5826 infected
921 dead
That's 15.8%

Sweden 73% of closed cases ending in death.
Ireland 88% of closed cases ending in death.

No translation needed.

jibber5000

STB. wrote: »

Thanks for signing to let us know.

Critical Care is one nurse per patient.



Says someone with a law background in Cork apparently working in a hospital. 3 of the big hospitals in Dublin reached their ICU capacity this month.

Law background from Cork? Wrong poster mate

3 hospitals out of approx 30 in Ireland. Most ICU departments are quieter now than they would have been without CoVid, a couple of Dublin hospitals the exception.

If you don't believe me look at the figures.
On average 9 people a week are dying in our ICUs of covid. Hardly a sign of a system bursting at the seams.

cgcsb

ush wrote: »

Yeah, they push old people off cliffs at midsummer.

:pac::pac::pac::pac: screaming at this

beolight

boege wrote: »

My wife is a theater nurse and I asked here this question. There are many nurses that had ICU course done in the past but who never worked in ICU and a lot of training has been going on since mid January.

My wife has nearly 40 years experience as a nurse. She would be fairly critical of the HSE at the best of times but she has been impressed by the way the HSE has prepared for this pandemic.

Just one word I might query “prepared” can we substitute it for reacted? Prepared would indicate a level of planning that simply was not there

Once HSE fully accepted the oncoming crisis and handed back the decision making process to the medics in each hospital then the hospitals started to make plans safe in the knowledge that no HSE was trying to micro manage them

cgcsb

Cyrus wrote: »

What will become apparent is that the number of deaths in 2020 is probably not any higher than many other recent years

With Italy having to remove bodies in bulk with army trucks, and crematoriums unable to handle the influx, I find that unlikely. Ireland and the rest of Northern Europe may be coping better but but even if we stop it at 1,000 deaths, that's statistically significant.

cgcsb

jibber5000 wrote: »

We know for a fact that in Ireland >90% of those that died have 0% chance of 10 year survival.

No reason why would be different there.

wtf? 10 years? why not 30? sure we'll just put you out of your misery now shall we?

jibber5000

cgcsb wrote: »

wtf? 10 years? why not 30? sure we'll just put you out of your misery now shall we?

Because that's the measurable data point used. You can't bring every single patient and put them on a ventilator whatever their age.

When taken in conjunction with how sick they are to warrant critical care admission it means their chances of fully recovering are extremely low.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.ie/news/5319621/coronavirus-in-ireland-points-system-intensive-care-elderly/amp/

is_that_so

cgcsb wrote: »

wtf? 10 years? why not 30? sure we'll just put you out of your misery now shall we?

The call in this scenario is made on a case by case basis and what would be of most benefit to the patient. Sometimes that is palliative care only.

STB.

jibber5000 wrote: »

Law background from Cork? Wrong poster mate

3 hospitals out of approx 30 in Ireland. Most ICU departments are quieter now than they would have been without CoVid, a couple of Dublin hospitals the exception.

If you don't believe me look at the figures.
On average 9 people a week are dying in our ICUs of covid. Hardly a sign of a system bursting at the seams.

I was curious so I looked. LLB ? No. ?Its all in your history.

Posting on the conspiracy theory forum only a few days ago (you are wrong about the bed numbers there by the way too) ICU, HDU primarily used for Covid19 patients unit.

Its not that I don't believe, you are simply wrong.

Mater Hospital (Full April 8th)

They also share ICU capacity with Non Covid yet critical patients.

Patients move if they deteriorate. These are the Covid 19 numbers in hospitals alone.

Beaumount 137, Mater 85, James Hospital 81, Tallaght 77, St Vincents 66, Blanch 57

And you clearly do not understand how ICU's work. Do you think you go into ICU for a routine examination ? You can spend weeks in there, so no, reading the deaths numbers is no indication.

"I work in a hospital". Yeah.

biko

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think we need to be careful about using confirmed cases as a basis for calculating percentage dead from the virus particularly in the case of Sweden which does a relatively low amount of testing.

Del Griffith wrote: »

This is pointed out every time he posts that pointless and misleading fatality rate, but they still come every day.

Neither of you seem to have come up with a better way so..

We have a known amount of tested positive cases.
We have an amount of known dead.
We then have a percentage of known dead among tested and confirmed cases.

But it seems to me you're just throwing your hands up and saying "we don't have all the facts, let's do nothing.."

jibber5000

jibber5000 wrote: »

We've medical students proning patients presume the same There?

I don't see how it will definitely affect the mortality rate. All an ICU would need to function is staff and equipment. Location doesn't really matter as long as it's not the other side of the hospital. All intensive care units are located close to op theatre space.
An operating theatre would be actually ideal. Lots of space, and no elective procedures planned for the next period of time.

You have medical students proning patients by themselves?

It's a brave new world.

With more beds, you need more consultants/nurses/pharmacists/physiotherapists etc. You can't train people up on the fly in a technical area such as ICU. Of course, this will have an outcome on mortality. Out of curiosity, have you ever actually worked on an ICU? Your lack of knowledge might be excusable if you haven't.

Th

jibber5000

STB. wrote: »

I was curious so I looked. LLB ? No. ?Its all in your history.

Posting on the conspiracy theory forum only a few days ago (you are wrong about the bed numbers there by the way too) ICU, HDU primarily used for Covid19 patients unit.

Its not that I don't believe, you are simply wrong.

Mater Hospital (Full April 8th)

They also share ICU capacity with Non Covid yet critical patients.

Patients move if they deteriorate. These are the Covid 19 numbers in hospitals alone.

Beaumount 137, Mater 85, James Hospital 81, Tallaght 77, St Vincents 66, Blanch 57

And you clearly do not understand how ICU's work. Do you think you go into ICU for a routine examination ? You can spend weeks in there, so no, reading the deaths numbers is no indication.

"I work in a hospital". Yeah.

CUH and GUH/Merlin park combined have approx 1.9 times the number of beds that Letterkenny Cavan and Drogheda combined have. I said double. Apologies for being off by .1.

A patient can spend a few weeks or a few days?

You have a number of problems.

You're saying those numbers as it they're all in ICU beds, they're not. 148 covid are in ICU and the number is falling.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1130794/

There are 33 icus in Ireland - an average of under 5 patients in each one.


Secondly you think that every patient who goes to ICU is ventilated. This is wrong needs no further explanation.

Finally you really show your lack of knowledge by neglecting the thousands of missed surgeries over the last 6 weeks. This has further reduced ICU capacity with no post surgery complications ie there's less critical patients.

You're trying so hard to pretend that our ICU system is at breaking point to fit your narrative?