Sweden avoiding lockdown

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082767#Comment_119082767

You could just as easily look at it and say the lower hanging fruit fell faster with no severe lockdowns to kick the can down the road but eventually it levels out over time and they had a happier 2 years with no lockdowns

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082764#Comment_119082764

Well, this was my point all along - it is a political decision - public health is part of that decision but not the only part.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082744#Comment_119082744

All the countries cited were 2022 figures. I expect it is down to frequency of published data eg

"Data from EuroMOMO, a network of epidemiologists who collect weekly reports on deaths from all causes in 23 European countries."

Yes it is unclear... Economist used a 5 year baseline. Whereas Lancet used predictive models which imo seems inherently more error prone.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082700#Comment_119082700

Don't know ..haven't read a thread about that ..yet 😁

Danish government tends to be first off the block but why they did this when Delta was everywhere ....

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/27/denmark-to-lift-all-remaining-covid-restrictions-on-10-september&ved=2ahUKEwiqjYuC9-n3AhXJYMAKHR3SAHcQFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2aRsL4Yek81RRwOhZY2Y1v

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082807#Comment_119082807

It struck me as odd, that Ireland had performed so well in terms of estimated excess deaths when, as JacDaniel correctly pointed out Ireland has 7,244 deaths, Sweden 18,864. So, roughly half - and Ireland has roughly half of Sweden's population. There is a disparity there that would be good to explain

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082796#Comment_119082796

We introduced major restrictions 2 weeks before UK such as closing schools. We cancelled Patricks Day etc and shut pubs. UK still had Cheltenham.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082821#Comment_119082821

Yes, and this (at least to me) further compounds the issue, and hence why I stated originally that the response to this crisis was a value judgement.

Public health of course matters, but it is not the only thing that matters.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082800#Comment_119082800

" Lower hanging fruit " ? You talking about people here ?

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082642#Comment_119082642

By extending the time range it flattens the spikes. Especially if it drags some statistical aberrations into it. It's that distortion again.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082744#Comment_119082744

A lot of this stats don't align especially those using there own models to extrapolate trends. Like that chart someone posted earlier then didn't explain it.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082807#Comment_119082807

I like the WHO version best .

It takes into account deaths from other illnesses not treated due to Covid as well as those accidents and illnesses that were reduced to to Covud measures.

More complete .

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082824#Comment_119082824

Thats not roughly half for starter. It is 38 percent.

And secondly the Economist figures are 31 percent.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082861#Comment_119082861

well, if we are looking at the WHO figures - this sky news article that I posted previously is of interest:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-live-coronavirus-vaccine-pandemic-latest-skynews-12579367?postid=3844326#liveblog-body 

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082824#Comment_119082824

18864 = 9, 432 , not 7244 .

Not being pedantic , but big difference there ...another third of Irish deaths to make it half Sweden's !

OK fair enough on the maths (I am trying to do three things at once here) but the difference is not massive considering the difference in lockdown/restriction strategy. To compare the restrictions Sweden had at the height of them to any restricted period in Ireland is not a contest.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082833#Comment_119082833

Ahh Cheltenham , widely attended by a good proportion of social Irish .

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082834#Comment_119082834

In a pandemic , public health is of the utmost importance .

There again we differ .

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082924#Comment_119082924

The difference between my approach (voluntary measures) and those who laud lockdown is that a voluntary approach does not eliminate personal choice.

There might be vulnerable people who are nearing the end of their life who would prefer to take the risk for themselves, in order to see loved ones (I said this before - I know several).

Whose decision should that be?

Your answer - politicians/public health specialists.

My answer - the individual.

This isn't just a public health issue. It's a political one, a moral one, economic, educational and social one.

Accepting lockdown as the go-to answer for this ignores all the other aspects of this crisis.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082965#Comment_119082965

All along here people were told what was going on . Many didn't like it and fought against it but only during lockdown were people being strictly told " do this, do that " , imo, the rest was common sense.

I don't laud this but I accepted it was out of necessity where we were at the time .

Personal choice is important .

It is also necessary to have all the facts before you make that" informed decision " .

If you get a chance read that article I posted. , do . You will see Tegnell et al not only withheld information from the public throughout the first half of 2020 ,, they lied about the science and told everybody , it'll be grand , when it patently wasn't .

That's not freedom of choice , just blissful ignorance .

Always choose truth over lies and knowledge over ignorance.

Oh, and public health over politics when it is necessary , as in a worldwide pandemic .

And on the case numbers , that was an exact copy of a post from jacdaniel the other day ...I didn't react then but am wondering if that's the other two things you are doing now ?

( ie . Minding his kids and posting for him on another forum? 😁)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119083045#Comment_119083045

lol no, kids wouldn't be my area of expertise that's for sure

Goldengirl

Ok , fair enough .

The similarity struck me there in that post ?

Must be getting a but befuddled in my old age ..

Night all !

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082924#Comment_119082924

Just to emphasise this, pretty much every country has laws in place for dealing with pandemics that do not violate the human rights conventions. This is not by accident.

And when the next pandemic occurs, they'll be used again, and a new generation of people will not understand these laws and why they exist.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082700#Comment_119082700

Here you go. Eurostat monthly percentages of excess deaths + or - the monthly averages deaths of 2016-2019.

The April 2020 and November 2020 are the two relevant waves as Sweden had given up the chase of herd immunity after the November 2020 - January 2021 in favour of vaccines.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082841#Comment_119082841

I noticed that, but when it comes to lockdown versus chasing herd immunity for the Nordic nations, it is only relevant for the first 2 waves as Sweden had moved to their faith in vaccines rather than herd immunity.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082861#Comment_119082861

Just on your mention of the WHO, not sure I would be looking to the WHO if we have another pandemic anytime soon. Not with them having appointed Johan Giesecke who along with Tegnell were the main architects behind the Swedish herd immunity strategy as special advisor to their Director-General as special advisor on pandemic response.

What the logic behind that is anybody`s guess, but it would not fill me with a lot of confidence. If anything during Covid, for me the WHO was more like a political organisation attempting to be all things to everyone rather than a health organisation.

Flinty997

WHO investigates the source of the Pandemic...

https://youtu.be/ZXVN7QJ8m88

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082833#Comment_119082833

There were probably more Irish at Cheltenham than English.

charlie14

The chart of European monthly excess deaths I posted last night I have already posted on this thread back some time ago. It can take a bit of time and effort to wade through but to simplify. It shows the percentage of plus or minus the monthly excess deaths compared to the monthly averages for the years 2016 -2019.

For the Nordic countries it again just highlights the difference of chasing herd immunity by Sweden during the height of the first two waves (April - June 2020 and November 2020 - January 2021), as opposed to the others who were using stricter restrictions.

April - June 2020.

Sweden : 38.2%, 23.9%, 10.7%

Finland : 8.1%, 5.6%, 5.1%

Norway : 2.9%, -3.1%, -1.9%

Denmark : 6.4% -0.9%, 0.8%

November 2020 - January 2021.

Sweden : 10.7%, 24.5%, 18.4%

Finland : 6.1%, 4.0%, -1.8%

Norway : 0.7%, -2.2%, -5.5%

Denmark : 5.5%, 10.6%, 10.8%.

For each of those months at the height of the two waves Sweden`s excess percentage of deaths far exceeded those of their three Scandinavian neighbours. With the age profiles of all four countries being similar, then other than the difference in strategies, I cannot see anything else to explain that.

Excess deaths is a complicated area to look at because you can't just go assuming that excess deaths are due to COVID.

It's a no brainer that a society under severe lockdown will have less deaths. No traffic collisions or accidents etc.

The inconvenient truth remains though, Sweden did grand overall. No lockdowns, happy people and less deaths than half the world.

Regarding 'happy people': Human resilience is a finite resource, and each individual has their own threshold. You can't expend it all on one crisis, and you can't perpetually test it. Whatever one wants to say about excess deaths etc - lockdown has been an enormous burden on all (there are many categories of victims, but I think particularly the younger generations <40 and children have suffered immensely). As I said, there will be crises in the future, some about public health, some about other things - we are currently under new crises.

This goes back to what I was trying to say - a teleological view says that the 'ends justify the means', but I think we need to evaluate the means (ethically) just as much as the ends (if objective was reached). In that respect, I do not think that lockdown of healthy (uninfected) people is ethical (as a means). Again, that is my opinion and I acknowledge that it won't be universally shared. But when the facts change, or new evidence is presented, as John Maynard Keynes said - I change my mind (what do you do?) - but there have been no facts forthcoming thus far to encourage that process.

When human resilience breaks down (at individual level), it has negative effects on society, it can lead to increased crime, violence (to self & others), riots, and so forth. The problem about that is then we demand the state to protect us from these things - and the state can only offer coercion as a remedy. We observed during the lockdown the immense coercive power of the state. The basic question therefore is: how much state coercion are we prepared to live with for the sake of security from some threat (thus, we come back to the Hobbesian contract that I previously mentioned). It is therefore, as I said previously: a value judgement, and everyone will have their own opinion on that. I have to be honest, I don't feel optimistic (though I usually am) about the prospects in this country (or other parts of Europe) for the younger generations.