Sweden avoiding lockdown

STB.

jibber5000 wrote: »

CUH and GUH/Merlin park combined have approx 1.9 times the number of beds that Letterkenny Cavan and Drogheda combined have. I said double. Apologies for being off by .1.

A patient can spend a few weeks or a few days?

You have a number of problems.

You're saying those numbers as it they're all in ICU beds, they're not. 148 covid are in ICU and the number is falling.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1130794/

There are 33 icus in Ireland - an average of under 5 patients in each one.

Secondly you think that every patient who goes to ICU is ventilated. This is wrong needs no further explanation.

Finally you really show your lack of knowledge by neglecting the thousands of missed surgeries over the last 6 weeks. This has further reduced ICU capacity with no post surgery complications ie there's less critical patients.

You're trying so hard to pretend that our ICU system is at breaking point to fit your narrative?

You clearly don't understand the distinction between ICU and general hospital beds. You assume they are all for use by Covid19 patients when they are infact segregated. You do not understand that critical ICU is not just those on ventilators. You clearly do not understand the limited number of ICU beds in each hospital. You think ICU is a short stop hop.

And you claim to work in a hospital. I can only assume that if you do, its in a hospital shop.

You have lied about your post history when it is there for all to see. You are a spoofer. Stick to the conspiracy forum Dr Abagnale or stick to forums where you think washes.

whippet

i've been talking to my brother who is in rural sweden over the weekend. Initially he was very sceptical of the swedish model especially when he was looking over at what we were doing and how the UK seemed to get in to a mess very quickly.

Now he is starting to look at things a bit differently. He spent the weekend as normal - out for lunch with the family and as the weather is improving out and about in local parks etc.

He did mention that in his experience the Swedes don't really treat the elderly well (purely his opinion from living there for the last decade) and that their culture may mean that the spike in death rates of older more vulnerable people is just collateral damage from keeping the economy open and in a round about way the swedish society at large are accepting of this.

As I've mentioned before Swedes by their nature are fairly antisocial so social distancing comes natural to them and when going about your day to day business interactions with anyone outside of your household or immediate group is minimal.

He has a small fledgling business and was looking at loosing this business if the there was a lockdown initiated .. now its business as usual.

His initial fears are gone by the wayside

djan

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Sweden definitely have ****ed up here

Ireland deaths per million: 125
Sweden deaths per million: 151

Both countries got infected nearly same time

Great going by Sweden then. It's difficult to compare countries like this as there are so many variables at play such as genetic immunity, healthcare, population density and social customs.

My main worry is that given Ireland's stretched healthcare resources, without a lockdown, it would collapse quickly.

is_that_so

djan wrote: »

Great going by Sweden then. It's difficult to compare countries like this as there are so many variables at play such as genetic immunity, healthcare, population density and social customs.

My main worry is that given Ireland's stretched healthcare resources, without a lockdown, it would collapse quickly.

Like the majority of health systems we were not prepared at all, hence those very stark warnings in March but we've since more or less got there.

jibber5000

STB. wrote: »

You clearly don't understand the distinction between ICU and general hospital beds. You assume they are all for use by Covid19 patients when they are infact segregated. You do not understand that critical ICU is not just those on ventilators. You clearly do not understand the limited number of ICU beds in each hospital. You think ICU is a short stop hop.

And you claim to work in a hospital. I can only assume that if you do, its in a hospital shop.

You have lied about your post history when it is there for all to see. You are a spoofer. Stick to the conspiracy forum Dr Abagnale or stick to forums where you think washes.

Are people not allowed to change career?
And your detective work came up with Cork. Poor use of your time


I've explained this on another thread but you think that ICU capacity can't be increased? Luckily hospitals havnt needed to or wont have to as they just transfer them to another hospital which has capacity.

ICU stay can last a few days, especially if a younger patient doesn't need to be ventilated.

Of course open floor ICU beds are segragated. Modern ICU's ie UHL have single rooms.
You're not grasping the reduction in ICU capacity from surgeries not going ahead.

At least come up with some facts to back up your claims? Just broad speculation

Del Griffith

biko wrote: »

Neither of you seem to have come up with a better way so..

We have a known amount of tested positive cases.
We have an amount of known dead.
We then have a percentage of known dead among tested and confirmed cases.

But it seems to me you're just throwing your hands up and saying "we don't have all the facts, let's do nothing.."

Or we could use the estimates from the studies and academic papers, posted multiple times in this thread.

wakka12

jibber5000 wrote: »

Because that's the measurable data point used. You can't bring every single patient and put them on a ventilator whatever their age.

When taken in conjunction with how sick they are to warrant critical care admission it means their chances of fully recovering are extremely low.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.ie/news/5319621/coronavirus-in-ireland-points-system-intensive-care-elderly/amp/

Just wanted to show that you cant make that assumption based on data alone

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/doctors-nurses-porters-volunteers-the-uk-health-workers-who-have-died-from-covid-19

Look at this page about the NHS workers who died.

Rebecca Mack, 29 year old nurse who died .

'She had no known health problems, and fell ill after a work training session in Derby.

She was self-isolating alone at her home when her symptoms worsened. Mack called for an ambulance and left the door open for paramedics. They found her dead in her home, her mother, Marion, told the Newcastle Chronicle.'

This woman in her twenties who had no health problems is part of your statistic of people who had 0% chance of living the next ten years based on the fact she was not in ICU. I have no doubt shes an outlier but I just think you are making a very bold statement based on a theory really. Still much unknown about COVID, there has been enormous spike in the amount of cardiac arrests in NYC the last few weeks, given the link between cardiac issues and COVID, it is certainly a contributing factor to these sudden deaths which likely would never make it to ICU either.

jibber5000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You have medical students proning patients by themselves

It's a brave new world
With more beds, you need more consultants/nurses/pharmacists/physiotherapists etc. You can't train people up on the fly in a technical area such as ICU. Of course, this will have an outcome on mortality. Out of curiosity, have you ever actually worked on an ICU? Your lack of knowledge might be excusable if you haven't.

Th

I suppose you're going to tell me you need a 6 month course before you prone a patient?

I have worked in an ICU.

You're talking about a situation if the whole system is completely overwhelmed. Unlike Ireland which has excess capacity as a whole.

Or you just have those already working do extra shifts, not take annual leave, switch staff with previous experience from their ward to ICU?

Why would the HSE bother training the staff up in this if they thought it was so dangerous?
As I've explained not everyone in ICU is critically ill on a ventilator especially with CoVid.

I've previously proved we are upskilling staff.

jibber5000

wakka12 wrote: »

Just wanted to show that you cant make that assumption based on data alone

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/doctors-nurses-porters-volunteers-the-uk-health-workers-who-have-died-from-covid-19

Look at this page about the NHS workers who died.

Rebecca Mack, 29 year old nurse who died .

'She had no known health problems, and fell ill after a work training session in Derby.

She was self-isolating alone at her home when her symptoms worsened. Mack called for an ambulance and left the door open for paramedics. They found her dead in her home, her mother, Marion, told the Newcastle Chronicle.'

This woman in her twenties who had no health problems is part of your statistic of people who had 0% chance of living the next ten years based on the fact she was not in ICU. I have no doubt shes an outlier but I just think you are making a very bold statement based on a theory really. Still much unknown about COVID, there has been enormous spike in the amount of cardiac arrests in NYC the last few weeks, given the link between cardiac issues and COVID, it is certainly a contributing factor to these sudden deaths which likely would never make it to ICU either.

I'm not making this theory up.

This is the scoring system most countries are using to base their ICU admissions on. It is not the only element that goes into a decision but it is a huge determining factor.

Of course there are going to be tragic outliers in a disease that has killed over 165k worldwide.

I'm not saying this approach is right or wrong. We can't just intubate every single covid patient no matter their age or life expectancy. Not only would it overwhelm the system but it would be down right cruel to the patients.

jibber5000

jibber5000 wrote: »

Law background from Cork? Wrong poster mate

3 hospitals out of approx 30 in Ireland. Most ICU departments are quieter now than they would have been without CoVid, a couple of Dublin hospitals the exception.

If you don't believe me look at the figures.
On average 9 people a week are dying in our ICUs of covid. Hardly a sign of a system bursting at the seams.

To be fair to Jibber, he is right about ICUs not been overran.

It's in the HSE briefing.

Here's one from last Wednesday.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-20-00-15-april-2020.pdf

It's the fact that he thinks you can upskill a HCP on the fly without effecting mortality rates that I have an issue with.

Surprised an intern/SHO is working on an ICU. Thought you had to have completed CST.

Cyrus

biko wrote: »

Neither of you seem to have come up with a better way so..

We have a known amount of tested positive cases.
We have an amount of known dead.
We then have a percentage of known dead among tested and confirmed cases.

But it seems to me you're just throwing your hands up and saying "we don't have all the facts, let's do nothing.."

i hope you arent serious. if your agenda is to be alarmist then fine, but you cannot seriously be presenting these % as anywhere close to accurate?

jibber5000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

To be fair to Jibber, he is right about ICUs not been overran.

It's in the HSE briefing.

Here's one from last Wednesday.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-20-00-15-april-2020.pdf

It's the fact that he thinks you can upskill a HCP on the fly without effecting mortality rates that I have an issue with.

I obviously accept it will affect patient care. Perhaps I didnt answer that fully in my last response. And I stand by my comment re proning skill levels. It is so important to have bodies to carry it out.

My original reason for getting into ICU numbers was in response to a post implying that when a country hits ICU capacity, patients will effectively be left to die on the wards.

jibber5000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

To be fair to Jibber, he is right about ICUs not been overran.

It's in the HSE briefing.

Here's one from last Wednesday.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-20-00-15-april-2020.pdf

It's the fact that he thinks you can upskill a HCP on the fly without effecting mortality rates that I have an issue with.

Surprised an intern/SHO is working on an ICU. Thought you had to have completed CST.

There are intern anaesthetic jobs any big hospital

biko

14385 cases
1540 dead
10.7% of known cases have died.
Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

For Ireland https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/
15251 cases
610 dead
4% of known cases have died.


BBC using the same method I do
7 March 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51777049
4600 cases
197 dead

According to government data, 4.25% of individuals confirmed to have the coronavirus in Italy have died, the highest rate in the world.

And NY Times
178972 cases
23660 dead
13%

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-death-rate.html

In Italy, the death rate stands at about 13 percent

MadYaker

Those stats only include people who were tested. Most people who get this aren’t tested.

biko

Yes, we all know that there is a lot of people that don't get seriously sick and thus won't get tested.
We don't have to worry about those people, because they will just carry on as usual.
The stats are for people that for some reason got tested.

Another aspect is the people that have been admitted to ICU. For instance that number is currently 520 in Sweden.
But it's not reliable because that number changes as people leave ICU and another takes their places.

niallo27

biko wrote: »

Yes, we all know that there is a lot of people that don't get seriously sick and thus won't get tested.
We don't have to worry about those people, because they will just carry on as usual.
The stats are for people that for some reason got tested.

Another aspect is the people that have been admitted to ICU. For instance that number is currently 520 in Sweden.
But it's not reliable because that number changes as people leave ICU and another takes their places.

Ok so why do you think we have had more cases here tested despite having half the population.

Breezin

For a visual of the trends, on https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2020/coronavirus-making-sense-of-the-numbers/index.html.

As the site asks in each case: Does this chart improve your understanding of the global pandemic?

biko

niallo27 wrote: »

Ok so why do you think we have had more cases here tested despite having half the population.

If I understand you correctly you are asking why Ireland has tested more than Sweden?

Sweden didn't believe in major testing initially, and Ireland ramped up faster
Sweden is now trying to ramp up their testing, Ireland is ramping down.

Ireland has done approx 90K tests
Sweden has done approx 75K tests

Bit cynical

biko wrote: »

We have a known amount of tested positive cases.
We have an amount of known dead.
We then have a percentage of known dead among tested and confirmed cases.

However as I have said, the number of known tested positive cases is highly dependent on the number of tests done and the targeting of those tests. Therefore the percentage of deaths per confirmed positive cases will also be highly dependent on the number of tests done and the targeting of those tested.

That is not to say that there are no figures that can be used but we need to exercise caution with some types of figures.

biko

Yes, the only way to squeeze death rate down is to do more tests, increasing positives where people do not die.

But since countries tests more or less there is no way of knowing without testing the entire population.
Then the population sizes vary...
And the ages of the tested...
And the denseness of the population...
And..
And..

ush

biko wrote: »

Yes, the only way to squeeze death rate down is to do more tests, increasing positives where people do not die.

But thats only part of it. The virus will eventually go through the population. It won't just go away. Are you going to shut down the entire economy until it does? Testing the entire population continuously will tie up a huge part of entire health service. In the mean time, cancer and heart problems will go underreported. Which, in turn, creates another huge headache further down the line.

Bit cynical

biko wrote: »

Yes, the only way to squeeze death rate down is to do more tests, increasing positives where people do not die.

But since countries tests more or less there is no way of knowing without testing the entire population.
Then the population sizes vary...
And the ages of the tested...
And the denseness of the population...
And..
And..

I would have thought that what is important among other things is keeping the overall number of people that die low over the course of the epidemic. Testing is good but I don't see the point of having large numbers of tests purely so that the percentage of deaths per positive test is low. I'm not sure how meaningful that figure is.

What might be more important is the number of deaths per head of population at the point where the curve flattens, ICU capacity per head of population (i.e does it have capacity at the peak of the outbreak). Number of serious cases per had of population.

The total deaths and serious cases over the course of the outbreak will also be important but, of course, will not be known until time has passed.

Each of these has its drawbacks of course but are probably more useful than deaths per positive test.

thebaz

again, the number of deaths recorded today is low , 40 -

People were predicating a huge number - this has not happened, yet , and maybe won't , meaning the Swedes were not so wreckless, and if the herd immunity works, they might come out of this well , given they will probably avoid somewhat the severe recession the rest of the world will encounter, and ensuing mental health trsunami of problems, and less of a backlog of other serious medical problems, that are being postponed in rest of world and will lead to a large number of deaths too.

wakka12

Yep another day or two in a row of deaths below 40 or so and youd really have to hand it to them that they probably made the right decision in the end

That is, if they are counting nursing home deaths? I think I heard they are, but if Swedens deaths are actually 50% more than reported like many other European countries and now in the 2000-2400 range then that is actually an awful lot for a country their size

biko

biko wrote: »

Yes, the only way to squeeze death rate down is to do more tests, increasing positives where people do not die.

But since countries tests more or less there is no way of knowing without testing the entire population.
Then the population sizes vary...
And the ages of the tested...
And the denseness of the population...
And..
And..

???

The "death rate" is a function of the underlying health of the population, the profile of the population who have been infected, and the quality of the care they receive.

For most societies it will be relatively constant. you can't change it by testing more people. You can establish with a greater degree of accuracy what it actually IS, but that's a different thing.

I don't understand why you are quoting death rates as if they mean something. We all know they don't, those numbers are a direct consequence of how extensive testing is, not any other factor, and they are not an actual 'death rate' or (in most cases) anything close to it.

Roger_007

thebaz wrote: »

again, the number of deaths recorded today is low , 40 -

People were predicating a huge number - this has not happened, yet , and maybe won't , meaning the Swedes were not so wreckless, and if the herd immunity works, they might come out of this well , given they will probably avoid somewhat the severe recession the rest of the world will encounter, and ensuing mental health trsunami of problems, and less of a backlog of other serious medical problems, that are being postponed in rest of world and will lead to a large number of deaths too.

The Swedes are not known to be reckless and they are not reckless on this occasion either. The key difference between what they are doing and what most other countries in Europe are doing is sustainability. The measures which they have put in place can be sustained for as long as is necessary. Other countries put in place measures which cannot be sustained and without any exit strategy and are thrashing their economies in the meantime.
Sweden has not closed down their economy and they are not throwing money around like it was going out of fashion. They have taken some sensible measures that their population are more than willing to go along with, and life goes on almost normally.
Everyone else in Europe is painting themselves into a corner. The more successful their ‘lockdowns’ are the worse their position becomes. They are creating a situation where the vast majority of the population will have no immunity and the virus will always be around somewhere and is never going to be eliminated.

thebaz

Roger_007 wrote: »

The Swedes are not known to be reckless and they are not reckless on this occasion either. The key difference between what they are doing and what most other countries in Europe are doing is sustainability. The measures which they have put in place can be sustained for as long as is necessary. Other countries put in place measures which cannot be sustained and without any exit strategy and are thrashing their economies in the meantime.
Sweden has not closed down their economy and they are not throwing money around like it was going out of fashion. They have taken some sensible measures that their population are more than willing to go along with, and life goes on almost normally.
Everyone else in Europe is painting themselves into a corner. The more successful their ‘lockdowns’ are the worse their position becomes. They are creating a situation where the vast majority of the population will have no immunity and the virus will always be around somewhere and is never going to be eliminated.

Something needs to be looked at, our death toll continues to rise, we are destroying our economy with no realistic talk about exiting our severe lockdown, that is hugly impacting people with other illness and mental health problems - and we seam to be printing money in our attempt to solve the problem with nearly a million on the dole - its unsustainable - perhaps, instead of constantly looking at tighening the lockdown as per the WHO strategy, that has already shown up many issues, we should actually be studying positivly alternatives like Sweden and South Korea.

charlie14

thebaz wrote: »

Something needs to be looked at, our death toll continues to rise, we are destroying our economy with no realistic talk about exiting our severe lockdown, that is hugly impacting people with other illness and mental health problems - and we seam to be printing money in our attempt to solve the problem with nearly a million on the dole - its unsustainable - perhaps, instead of constantly looking at tighening the lockdown as per the WHO strategy, that has already shown up many issues, we should actually be studying positivly alternatives like Sweden and South Korea.

South Korea strategy differs from Sweden in that South Korea went with mass indiscriminate testing, rigorous contact tracing and the quarantine of anyone the carrier had come in contact with.
Recent tests in South Korea showing re-infections of some who recovered from the virus are casting doubts on the herd immunity theory as well.

marno21

Has any country used obesity as an underlying condition? From a limited amount of cases I have looked at, including obesity as an underlying condition would help to understand some of the most unfortunate deaths among younger demographics.

There seems to be evidence so far that obesity has a negative impact on an infected patient's outcome. I hope that it's not political correctness that's stopping this from being reported more widespread. Of course, I could be wrong.