Sweden avoiding lockdown

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120348411#Comment_120348411

First Sweden did do ok average in Europe overall, and I have said I accept same, but the point is they were not doing ok until after they started to introduce some restrictions in end of 2020. You went over in 2021 so things had changed there by that stage.

You don't know me so don't get personal about what I would or would not support. You are making incorrect assumptions there.

There is a problem with the lies and lack of data given to the people in Sweden that first year and there continues to be questions over the analysis of their data and is recognised not only by international observers but by their own . ( Included source in my previous post)

The problem with their response is not only did they not diverge from international standards, they dod not put ehical morality at the helm of their response, regardless of lip service paid to civil liberties. People were lied to about the course and seriousness of the disease, abandoned to their own devices with little recourse to public health advice or government funding if they needed to stay home and shield.

Great place for the young and fit in those years but not for families those who had no choice financially or othetwise to keep working and those less affluent living in cramped circumstances.

How is that an equitable libertarian response?

Finally.. That scientist supplying data to SvD.. Why not the data as supplied to outside data collection agencies? His analysis apoears to be just his own and that in itself is strange idelarture and if it was done here by CSO staff or in UK by ONS would be heavily caveated, if even accepted.

You are entitled to your opinion but that is all it is unless you have legitimate source of data other than one guys solo run to a Swedish tabloid.

Att vara en hest

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120350300#Comment_120350300

"The problem with their response is not only did they not diverge from international standards, they dod not put ehical morality at the helm of their response, regardless of lip service paid to civil liberties. People were lied to about the course and seriousness of the disease, abandoned to their own devices with little recourse to public health advice or government funding if they needed to stay home and shield."

Pretty much nobody feels that way in Sweden, overall people are happy with the response, especially those who have seen what other countries were like during the pandemic. I've yet to meet any person IRL who's upset with the strategy both among native Swedes and expats who moved here before or during the pandemic. That's all anecdotal of course. Nobody was "left to their own", if you got sick you had sick pay just as you always do here, except they even removed the "karensdag" so you got paid from day 1 (normally your first day sick is not paid).

There's a bigger ethical problem in locking your citizens in their homes, not allowing them to meet each other, deeming their livelihood to be "non-essential" and prevent them from keeping open. Not allowing people to attend funerals, not see their families, not go out for a walk in nature. Jesus how you can sit here and somehow still try to defend this even after the fact is beyond me.. You're just like Charlie except he was at least arguing while things were still kind of up in the air.

"You are entitled to your opinion but that is all it is unless you have legitimate source of data other than one guys solo run to a Swedish tabloid."

Örjan is not some Joe Schmo who will just pull random numbers out of his behind, he's well established on the topic with a history of reports on mortality rates in Sweden. His experience and access to SCB data should be all you need, it's as official as it gets. Who requested the report doesn't invalidate the report.

Anyways I won't argue here anymore. Two more weeks to flatten the curve, over and out!

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120350547#Comment_120350547

Wow, you really have a problem with people who disagree with you don't you?

Again you are generalising as so many do here.. "nobody in Sweden feels that way".

Do you speak for everyone now after living there for, what, the grand total of 18 months?

I lived there for a good few years, a while back I admit, but I would not presume to even guess at everyone's opinions there, kept very close to the chest usually.

And all bar one of our ex colleagues and friends were outraged and apalled in equal measure by the way the pandemic was handled that first year. The guy who wasn't reads that rag and was quite happy to ignore everything else going on.

I still would presume to speak fir all Swedes, just let the research do that.

And because I believe in public health and social and community responsibility in a pandemic does not mean I agree with everything that was dished out over the last few years, but at least it came from a place of more than just thinking of Swedish image and some badly placed notion of individual "freedom, " and to hell with everyone else.

Again you generalise.

That is not the type of freedom I believe in, where others, older, less affluent or less educated are left behind, so long as some narcissists can go to the gym or the pub in peace.

And who's Charlie? You used a name without quoting properly, thus giving him no right of reply to your post.

Are you Bertie, perchance?

daithi7

Yes, this is the interesting thing, not how badly Sweden did, but actually how surprisingly well they did. E.g. according to the Sunday Times editorial yesterday : ~

"Data from eurostat for the entire EU, from Jan 20 to April 22, shows excess deaths were 12.3% higher than if covid had not struck.

Over the same period the excess death rate in Ireland was 5.8%, half the EU average.

The member state with the lowest excess death rate was Sweden with 3.7%. Sweden also had the least severe restrictions in the EU..."

Science confounds our beliefs and interpretation of data, facts, opinions and changing circumstances , particularly when life & death is concerned, and when under duress like every government, health official & individual was during covid, to be fair to them.

Imho, Ireland did OK through covid, but the real tragedy now would be not to learn how to do better if & when a similar pandemic hits us in the future, as is quite likely apparently.

P.s. incidentally according the The Sunday Times, Ireland's excess death rate has hit 13.7% for the most recent 12 months. This is alarming imho, and also should now be examined closely imho. Like Why is this? And are there mitigating measures that can be put in place to reduce this?? Etc, etc

E.g. better public health messaging, other vaccination awareness measures, etc, etc

P.p.s. it could well be that the pandemic effort (e.g. lock downs, delayed medical procedures, etc, etc etc) are still costing Irish society in excess deaths rates to this day. If this is the case, the learnings from this must also be absorbed for better decision making now & into the future.

Emblematic

Yes it seems as time goes on, Sweden is increasingly seen as being the country that did the right thing. They did not panic but rather assessed the risk of the virus against the risk of lockdowns, delayed screening and treatment of other diseases.

Goldengirl

Ireland had very high numbers of deaths over this winter from pneumonia and flu.

Not surprising considering a) the extremely high numbers in hospitals over this winter, and b) people suffering flu for the first time in a few years because masks and restrictions had all but wiped it out over the Covid years.

And c) what are those numbers based on ?

If based on the previous few years , deaths in Sweden would be happy to be lower and we would definitely be going up .

We will have to look at how those figures of % higher and lower were arrived at , before jumping to premature conclusions . !.

I notice no links in the previous posts ..here's an official answer

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/question/2023-03-02/289/#pq-answers-289

daithi7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120769423#Comment_120769423

Is this a fact or just your opinion?

You didn't state which it was for your proposition, or for your reasons that that proposition might have been so.

Which is rather surprising as you then question on which basis the Eurostat figures for the entire EU excess death rate from 2020 to 2022 versus a no covid scenario were formulated. (Which probably took 1000s of hours of highly qualified, peer reviewed research time by professional researchers in a respected research organisation)

Perhaps clarifying your own opinions & the basis for your statements of fact might be more in your control & useful in this case tbh.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120769489#Comment_120769489

Maybe read the qualification in the Eurostat report . It talks about how the data is gathered particularly in Ireland as opposed to other countries . And no, I asked a question , because unlike some here, I don't presume to know all the answers.

I will wait till the CSO report is out before I jump on board thanks.

And no , it's not my opinion . Its the CMO's as regards deaths etc over winter ..

Irish Examiner

https://www.irishexaminer.com › ari...

Pneumonia and flu contributed to excess deaths over Christmas period, says CMO's office

You just quoted part of report without the link.

What was in the rest of it ?

Or did that not count, in your opinion ?

daithi7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120769626#Comment_120769626

This is what you actually wrote:

"....Not surprising considering a) the extremely high numbers in hospitals over this winter, and b) people suffering flu for the first time in a few years because masks and restrictions had all but wiped it out over the Covid years."

Please enlighten me is this your opinion or fact?

And what part of this is not jumping on some bandwagon?!?

Look we all write about things from perspectives with conscious & unconscious bias. At least stating something as your opinion allows readers due respect to make a judgement call on the likely veracity or otherwise of such an opinion.

Incidentally you didn't post a link to a report as you claimed either that I can see, just a newspaper article about a report with a link to that article that doesn't actually work fyi!?

You say you don't presume to know all the answers, then I'd respectfully suggest not repeatedly posting your opinion as fact, and not misrepresenting the views of others in response when called out on doing that either....

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120769804#Comment_120769804

I don't think anybody here needs to say that we are most of us posting from unconscious bias , and I am glad you recognize this . That is why I was reluctant to get too involved until more is available.

I posted the link to the CMO's opinion which is accurate and educated I think we can agree and is about the high deaths over winter.

The bit about the masks and restrictions effectively reducing flu and the resp viruses is true and factual . And backed up by evidence worldwide . Refer to epidemiological data in HSPC site .

The first link was about the oireachtais questions and answers from Stephen Donnelly in relation to the excess deaths recorded on Euro stat which is readily available .

Is this the one you can't access ? I will post it again. And the other just in case .

None of this is my opinion as all are backed up by data unlike your post which didn't provide link at all , only a partial quote from an article in the ST ..is it behind a paywall , because you will have to produce a full link now if you are berating me over mine and knew behind a paywall is not allowed afaik.

However if I choose to post my opinion I am entitled to do so without your permission...and I will.

But I take your point about fact and opinion.

Now is the bit where you say the Eurostat report

" (Which probably took 1000s of hours of highly qualified, peer reviewed research time by professional researchers in a respected research organisation)"

fact or opinion ?

Given the 'probably ' I would venture it is opinion.

They are highly respected. I agree .

However they qualify the report by saying it is incomplete and that different methods of collection by different countries may have an effect on results .

And that is why I said I would be happy to wait for the CSO report this month , before jumping on the bandwagon as regards Sweden vs Ireland . That is my opinion .

Links ..again .

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/rise-in-excess-deaths-from-flu-and-pneumonia-during-winter-tripledemic-surge/42340994.html&ved=2ahUKEwjH_teY8uH_AhUMacAKHQBzAEkQFnoECBwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw08uo03VbE3gyHxiCemuWC5

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/question/2023-03-02/289/

Now can you post the complete link for your article?

Emblematic

@Goldengirl wrote: "b) people suffering flu for the first time in a few years because masks and restrictions had all but wiped it out over the Covid years."

But this, if true, has to be counted a negative aspect of masks and restrictions (like people not getting treatment or screening), if later people are dying from flu and stressing hospitals dealing with the backlog from reduced treatment during Covid.

daithi7

20230626_161922.jpg

The Sunday Times editorial from this week FYI

Stormyteacup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120771686#Comment_120771686

Just baffling - the dearth of publicity over our recent excess death figures. Whatever you ascribe it to, compare the media frenzy over death statistics from 20/21 to the tumbleweed currently. So very strange.

But also in that article the idea of a ‘rigorous quarantine for the very old’ is simply inhumane. Lockdowns should never have endured past the first couple of weeks, full stop. Sweden fared better ultimately. This lesson needs to be loudly shared to avoid same mistakes in the future.

daithi7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120772118#Comment_120772118

So according to that Sunday Times editorial & Eurostat report the excess death rate in Ireland is currently running at over double the excess death rate during the height of the Covid crisis, ( I.e. 13.7 % versus 5.8%). That is simply staggering imho.

The really annoying aspect about this for me is that maybe with some more media & political attention on this scary statistic & it's causes, perhaps something constructive could be done to get this heightened death rate down, and hence actually save some lives today!!

Then you have to ask yourself why are the Irish government & departments so slow to do a review & report on their (& our) response to Covid, and the factors that influence these excess death rates in Ireland, and perhaps better figure out the best ways to reduce them in a pandemic, now & into the future. And the only reasonable conclusion that I can infer for not addressing these issues quicker, say through an effective, timely review like other countries have already done, is to protect government departments & agencies, ,elected officials & other vested interests....

What's absolutely infuriating about this imho, is that this slow response by officialdom in reviewing the Irish response to Covid & the alarming excess death rates now occurring, might indeed be sparing some departmental blushes, but if the current excess death rate statistics by Eurostat are to be believed, it is also currently costing many Irish lives.

That's abhorrent imho. Absolutely abhorrent.

Blut2

We had literal headline news every night on the number of excess deaths that day in Ireland, for months and years, on end. The fact that its not even getting mentioned weekly, or monthly, when its now over double what it was then makes absolutely no sense logically, morally or statistically.

Its entirely down to the government/our media deliberately not focusing on it because of the questions about our covid response that it would result in people asking.

walus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120775826#Comment_120775826

This is because a proper, independent, investigative journalist does not exist in Ireland, and in many other countries too. All we saw throughout the pandemic was the media regurgitating what was handed to them by the ‘nudge unit’ of NPHET. They became a part of an apparatus with a task to ensure that people were sufficiently worried to accept only one narrative, comply with restrictions and take the jabs. Media was a part of propaganda.

As for the unexplained excess deaths, this topic does not suit the current narrative of ‘let’s forget this dark times and move on’, therefore it is largely ignored. While the perception of the ability to prevent covid deaths has been monetized and profited from to the extreme degree, the same may not be applicable to the unexplained excess deaths, and thus no interest in the underlying causes. There is no money there, only the inconvenient truth.

There is no NPHET, no ‘nudge unit’ and, as we know well at this point, no proper journalism any more. The excess deaths are inconvenient proof that the government policies for dealing with covid-19 will cause more deaths than the virus itself. Many of people here said this from the beginning that the cure was worse than the disease itself and argued that lockdowns were causing more harm than good long term. I have said many times that the government should have taken into account first as well as second and even third order outcomes of the policies they implemented. Instead they optimised their decisions for the first order outcomes only (i.e. deaths from covid-19 only). The unexplained excess deaths that many countries are experiencing right now are to do with those second and third level outcomes that stem from the decisions of their respective governments.  

Emblematic

Interactive tool from Our World In Data. This show cumulative excess deaths from 1st March 2020 to present. Sweden despite being among the least strict in terms of restrictions is among the lowest in excess deaths for the period.

Ireland, despite being among the most stringent in terms of restrictions is mid-table on this chart.

In addition, Sweden has an older age-profile than Ireland, something that should have worked against that country.

There is clearly a need for some sort of tribunal on our policies during the pandemic. How many would still be alive today if we did not panic and instead followed the science like Sweden?

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline

Emblematic

@walus wrote 28-06-2023 4:42pm: "I have said many times that the government should have taken into account first as well as second and even third order outcomes of the policies they implemented. Instead they optimised their decisions for the first order outcomes only (i.e. deaths from covid-19 only). The unexplained excess deaths that many countries are experiencing right now are to do with those second and third level outcomes that stem from the decisions of their respective governments."

Very true. It only makes rational sense if you are trying to eradicate the virus. I think there was an "eradicationalist" mentality in Ireland long after it was realized that the virus could not be eradicated. I do remember a lot of people thinking that if they locked down severely enough for a few weeks that some sort of long term damage would be inflicted on the virus. Consciously, when challenged, they might acknowledge that they were going to have to live with the virus, but I think unconsciously, they maintained the unexamined belief that the virus could be beaten.

Then of course you had the zero-covid campaigners who bizarrely were often senior medics. They would have had influence behind the scenes.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120778560#Comment_120778560

What is this science that Sweden pursued ?

If it is the policy of Tegnell and Giesecke where according to Giesecke that Covid would sweep over Sweden in a few weeks and herd immunity would be achieved, it`s the anti-science of viruses.

Viruses mutate and it was clear, even with Tegnell attempting to ignore the second wave and the subsequent greater rise in deaths than their Nordic neighbours, that the herd immunity notion was not working.

There seems to be a few here who with just a short time having passed that it now time to attempt to re-write history. I have no inclination to plough over ground that has been not only ploughed before, but harrowed as well, but the simple facts are that once the local authorities got the power back to make their own decisions they forced the government to ditch Giesecke and Tegnell`s herd immunity fallacy and put their faith like everywhere else in vaccines being among the first countries to administer them

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120779099#Comment_120779099

I don't think they ever opposed vaccines. Could I ask where you are getting your information from?

Also in terms of excess deaths, theirs is about the same as Norway's over the extended period (see chart above) and lower than Finland despite having fewer restrictions.

greyday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120779528#Comment_120779528

IF you kill your weakest early on, you get lower excess deaths later, brilliant thinking from Sweden.

Astartes

Sweden had a bit of wiggle room as their health system was/is basically fit for purpose.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120779528#Comment_120779528

Why would Sweden have taken a position of being in favour or opossed to vaccines when their strategy was chasing herd immunity ?

If you are asking where did I get the information from that the strategy was chasing herd immunity it`s all here in this very thread and straight from the horses mouths of Tegnell and Giesecke from Tegnell e-mails obtained by a Swedish journalist under freedom of information. Those e-mails also included some between Tegnell and his Finnish counterpart that shows the callous attitude of Tegnell in his determination to follow his and Giesecke`s herd immunity chasing strategy.

Tegnell told his Finnish counterpart that he was considering leaving schools open. His counterpart told him Finland had considered doing the same, but their projections were that it would greatly increase the rate of death of those aged and the most vulnerable. Tegnell`s reply "It might be worth it". Sweden kept schools open with threats of fines or social services removing from parents care children that parents wished to keep from attending due to concerns for their health.

Also in this thread, Annika Linde, Tegnell`s predecessor as Sweden`s state epidemiologist admitted after it was clear that chasing herd immunity was not going to work that she knew what the strategy was.

Where in any of that is their this science that Sweden was supposedly following.

As I have said, I have neither the time nor the inclination to go over all this again, (especially when it is all already in this thread), with people who either wish to ignore the actual facts or are attempting to re-write history. And I do not know, nor do I care, where you are getting your information on Finland`s Covid deaths compared to Sweden`s, but unless there was a tsunami of deaths in Finland within the last year then they are very much at variance with Johns Hopkins pandemic tracker which for the period March 1st 2020 to March 29th 2022 shows Sweden`s Covid deaths per million people as being 1,790, Denmark 961, Finland 538, and Norway 428.

walus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120780490#Comment_120780490

You are completely missing the point here. It is not just the covid deaths that matter but all deaths in an excess of what would be otherwise expected for the period of last 3 years. The data clearly shows that Sweden has done significantly better than most countries in that period when it comes to the excess deaths. In that context your arguments are irrelevant. Covid olympics has ended and holding onto the ‘covid deaths is only what matters’ metric is simply wrong. Those countries who have done so well at it are now struggling big time with unexplained excess deaths that they either cannot or don’t want to investigate. Overall Sweden has done very well and will continue to do so as all the unexplained excess deaths have not come through yet. There is more secondary deaths to come, we have not seen through this phenomenon yet.

It is about time that you drop a notion that covid deaths are somehow more important than deaths due to other causes. For context just in UK they have registered 100,000 extra deaths from heart diseases since spring 2020., the authorities blame the disruption to the health services. That is just one small country and only one cause of deaths. That still continues on and nothing is being done about it.

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120780490#Comment_120780490

I still don't see any evidence that they pursued herd immunity. Allowing a degree of immunity to develop in school children (thereby lowering their ability to pass on the disease later on) is not pursuing herd immunity.

Flinty997

UK health service has been declining for years.

It's a bit like saying look at the bed crisis in Ireland 2020-2023 when its being going on for 25 yrs.

Emblematic

@charlie14 wrote 29-06-2023 1:53am: "And I do not know, nor do I care, where you are getting your information on Finland`s Covid deaths compared to Sweden`s, but unless there was a tsunami of deaths in Finland within the last year then they are very much at variance with Johns Hopkins pandemic tracker which for the period March 1st 2020 to March 29th 2022 shows Sweden`s Covid deaths per million people as being 1,790, Denmark 961, Finland 538, and Norway 428."

It is all in the link I provided earlier. You can see that around the middle of the 2021 Finland appeared to be doing fairly well compared to Sweden. However shortly after, deaths started to occur and in April of 2002 their overall excess deaths surpassed sadly those of Sweden.

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120779915#Comment_120779915

It is true that Sweden had a better health system but we here in Ireland actually closed down hospitals and drastically reduced screening for cancer. So we panicked and failed to even use what we had instead of following the science.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120780655#Comment_120780655

Sweden also stopped cancer screenings at height of pandemic and referrals were down massively. If you have evidence Swedens services continued without interruption post it.

Sweden took a free ride on their neighbours. They were able to rely on their strong health service, and voluntary support for recommended measures.

England tried their approach and had to abandon it. It doesnt scale.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120780619#Comment_120780619

If you do not see any evidence that Tegnell was chasing herd immunity, (something you appear to believe had some scientific credibility), then it`s because you are choosing to ignore it.

It`s crystal clear from the FOI emails between the two architects of the chasing herd immunity strategy, Tegnell and Giesecke, and between Tegnell and his Finnish counterpart it was the only strategy being considered. Tegnell`s predecessor as state epidermiologist admitted that she was also aware that it was the strategy.

Even the Swedish ambassador to the U.S. was telling journalists and anybody who would listen during the first wave that it was only a matter of days during the first wave before the Stockholm area would reach herd immunity. Giesecke was here in Ireland during the second wave pushing the same pseudoscience when Sweden`s own test results were showing it was a complete nonsense.

Tegnell never said the idea of keeping young kids in school was to allow a degree of immunity. He was warned by Finland that from their research that by doing so was likely to increase the numbers of death by at least 10%, but in his mad chase for this mythical herd immunity from a mutating virus he decided it was worth it Even he would have known as an epidemiologist that unless the total number of the population having immunity was not higher than, at the very least 70%, then it was pintless. The idea that a small number of children getting infected was going to achieve anything is in the same ballpark as being just a bit pregnant.

I still do not know what this "science" is that Sweden was supposedly following, but it appears that some here believe it was somehow a success and whatever it was should be followed in the future. Try that with the Zaire ebola virus that has an average mortality rate of 75% (60% - 90%) and see how that "science" stacks up.

I have better for doing with my time than engaging with people who are choosing to ignore the facts and attempting to re-write history on the abject failure that Sweden`s initially strategy was too dealing with the Covid-19 virus before they sidelined Tegnell`s insanity and used vaccines like everywhere else to gain control over it. But by all means you or anyone else who wishes to attempt doing that work away. It`s not going to change the facts.