Sweden avoiding lockdown

Att vara en hest

plodder wrote: »

But, if the current lockdown here will (or is) effectively controlling the spread, and that is without an effective testing regime, then it's reasonable to suppose that a limited removal of restrictions together with better testing will still keep it under control. So, you might be in contact with more people, but you are more likely to be able to trace those people, or put it another way, the only way a particular restriction can be lifted is if contacts are traceable (schools, many workplaces yes, pubs no, shops with present distancing measures etc). Might need some level of random testing of the population as well to catch outbreaks as early as possible.

I wonder if they will add mandatory testing for anyone who enters the country by plane or boat, all it takes is one asymptomatic person to sneeze in the queue at tesco and it will spread again.

Excessive testing is not going to prevent that, unless, as someone mentioned, you test every single person every single day.

Att vara en hest

Re. Sweden's high number yesterday: Anders Tegnell did mention during the press conference that yesterday's number included deaths stretching all the way back to March.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
(avlidna/dag)

Still shows April 10 as the 'peak' with 110 deaths but, as we know by now, Sweden's death number is always lagging behind.. The drop towards the end of the curve does not mean that the number is falling, however it does look to have plateaued after April 10.

plodder

Att vara en hest wrote: »

I wonder if they will add mandatory testing for anyone who enters the country by plane or boat, all it takes is one asymptomatic person to sneeze in the queue at tesco and it will spread again.

Excessive testing is not going to prevent that, unless, as someone mentioned, you test every single person every single day.

Just on the last point, you don't need to test every person. Random samples can give a high level of confidence, but you would need to test that sample size (whatever it is) regularly (if testing for the virus) which makes it a lot more impractical.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

A much better way to compare countries.

The table in this article shows clearly who is being honest with their stats on COVID 19 and who isn't. Unfortunately only has a few countries.

IAMAMORON

Att vara en hest wrote: »

I wonder if they will add mandatory testing for anyone who enters the country by plane or boat, all it takes is one asymptomatic person to sneeze in the queue at tesco and it will spread again.

Excessive testing is not going to prevent that, unless, as someone mentioned, you test every single person every single day.

Simply not feasible. They will have something token set up, maybe checking temperatures or something else ridiculous. Like sieving rice through wire mesh.

Murple

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

A much better way to compare countries.

The table in this article shows clearly who is being honest with their stats on COVID 19 and who isn't. Unfortunately only has a few countries.

I'd like to see this for Ireland.

Cuddlesworth

Murple wrote: »

I'd like to see this for Ireland.

Was curious, so I checked it. Our figures are reported around 6-9 months later, so feel free to look some time in October for the impact up till the end of march.

On average we have around 2,400 deaths per month.

Turquoise Hexagon Sun

Thing about Sweden is many people are still isolating and many people live alone or as couples/familes. It's not as common to share accommodation, so I'm told.

Places like Italy and Spain have many generations living together.

I think I prefer strict quarantine for safety but it's hard to compare countries without considering all the variables. You'd have to factor in the way people live. Percentages of people living in shared accommodation, generations living together (grandparents with grandchildren) etc.

Just going by numbers of deaths per capita or whatever isn't enough as it doesn't factor aformententioned cultural/logistical variables.

IAMAMORON

Looking at the Irish data it looks like if you are under 50 years of age you are pretty safe. Only 2 % of Irish deaths have been in the under 50 age group. That is taken from Mondays figures. 88% of deaths are in the over 70's.

It is also worth adding that this data is only based on those people tested. So obviously if you were not showing symptoms you weren't getting tested. This compounds the argument around survival rates in the under 50's. I wouldn't panic if you are over 50 either, if you are fit and well you have every chance of beating this phucker should you be unlucky enough to contract it.

I understand that the elderly in Sweden have been advised to isolate for months now, this must be contributing to their survival and it must also be facilitating the rest of Swedish society to survive and go about their lives under less restrictions than the rest of Europe. Granted that they took that option perhaps without the luxury of the statistics and information we have today.

biko

16755 cases
2021 dead
12% deaths of known cases

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Tenzor07

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Looking at the Irish data it looks like if you are under 50 years of age you are pretty safe. Only 2 % of Irish deaths have been in the under 50 age group. That is taken from Mondays figures. 88% of deaths are in the over 70's.
It is also worth adding that this data is only based on those people tested. So obviously if you were not showing symptoms you weren't getting tested. This compounds the argument around survival rates in the under 50's. I wouldn't panic if you are over 50 either, if you are fit and well you have every chance of beating this phucker should you be unlucky enough to contract it.

Just because statistically being under 50 may be "Safe" I wouldn't be any less cautious: Covid-19 causes sudden strokes in young adults, doctors say

Tenzor07

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Just because statistically being under 50 may be "Safe" I wouldn't be any less cautious: Covid-19 causes sudden strokes in young adults, doctors say

So does exercise (heart failures anyway, not strokes). Sports clubs need defibrillators on the wall after some sudden deaths of young people. Sorry, I know some young people are dying from this, but for me that is a risk I’m prepared to accept. Just like going surfing, or mountain biking, or just crossing the road

biko

A nurse in her 40s in the Stockholm region who was infected by covid-19 has passed away.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.svd.se%2Fsjukskoterska-i-stockholm-bekraftad-dod-i-covid-19

wakka12

'New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%'

On worldometers

This would put serious question marks over the Swedish approach , there is no chance that there is anything close to herd immunity developing within Stockholm if it is only 21% in one of the densest and most cosmopolitan cities on earth, and also the disease appears to have a higher mortality rate than Tegnell believes

sydthebeat

having followed sweden's numbers, today will be the last day of high numbers...

the total reported has practically caught up with their daily death numbers. i expect the weekends numbers to be very low which will continue through next week in the low double digits.

Their last 2 days have been 26 deaths each day and looking like lower today.

the only thing that could spike them again is if their nursing home deaths are covid confirmed and they are added in large groups.

Their approach seems to have worked well for them as their ICU units never really become overwhelmed. I was negative about their approach, and while im still skeptical of some of the number gathering processes, it seems their approach has worked for them. it will be interesting now to see if their economy now doesn't take a similar hit to comparable countries. While its wasnt a lockdown, it wasnt exactly a free for all either and their economy will definitely have taken something of a hit.

wakka12

But given the antibody testing in New York, it is important to note that Sweden is not doing well in that they have not achieved what they set out to do, which is achieve herd immunity. So Sweden likely only has about 250,000 people infected at some point based on the deat rate in NYC, far and away from the 7 million needed for herd immunity.

What is most likely to have occurred here is that the measures implemented, even though they are much less severe that in the rest of Europe, have also slowed the spread of the virus in Sweden down to a trickle as well.

So that means Sweden may yet experience the feared peak and multiple waves. But also, on the good side, it shows that the much less serious measures used in Sweden are enough to considerably slow the virus until a vaccine is created.

thebaz

sydthebeat wrote: »

having followed sweden's numbers, today will be the last day of high numbers...

Their approach seems to have worked well for them as their ICU units never really become overwhelmed. I was negative about their approach, and while im still skeptical of some of the number gathering processes, it seems their approach has worked for them.

I still think it is too early to say if ther approach has worked, but many have villified ther approach, and accused ther Government of murder/ genocide -

I think they will avoid some of the economic disasters that is going to hit many countrys, Ireland included, and have a huge Mental health problem effect on so many, particularly the young and under 40s.

I found it strange that the mainstream media and opposition parties did not question this lockdown strategy driven by WHO , that has impacted on most peoples basic human rights, both monetary and just staying healthy - excercise in fresh air etc - and country after country adopted this unproven lockdown strategy, and to question such you were deemed more or less a traitor or a Gemma type nut.

Bit cynical

wakka12 wrote: »

But given the antibody testing in New York, it is important to note that Sweden is not doing well in that they have not achieved what they set out to do, which is achieve herd immunity. So Sweden likely only has about 250,000 people infected at some point based on the deat rate in NYC, far and away from the 7 million needed for herd immunity.

Though it has to be pointed out that herd immunity was never the official strategy of Sweden. Like other countries, the strategy has been flattening the curve which they seem to be doing. The only difference is that they have been relying more on voluntary compliance of recommendations rather than legally enforced bans and restrictions (though they have some of those too).

With regard to herd immunity, that is something that other countries are waiting for too, though not officially. They can't say that, of course, because herd immunity requires 60% to 70% getting the virus and that would scare people in most countries. This will be true especially for countries where fear is required for people to comply with restrictions rather than a sense of personal responsibility towards the community.

Bit cynical

thebaz wrote: »

I found it strange that the mainstream media and opposition parties did not question this lockdown strategy driven by WHO , that has impacted on most peoples basic human rights, both monetary and just staying healthy - excercise in fresh air etc - and country after country adopted this unproven lockdown strategy, and to question such you were deemed more or less a traitor or a Gemma type nut.

In Sweden it appears that the opposition parties were the ones blocking more draconian measures requested by the government, though more recently additional powers have been granted.

Ipso

thebaz wrote: »

I still think it is too early to say if ther approach has worked, but many have villified ther approach, and accused ther Government of murder/ genocide -

I think they will avoid some of the economic disasters that is going to hit many countrys, Ireland included, and have a huge Mental health problem effect on so many, particularly the young and under 40s.

I found it strange that the mainstream media and opposition parties did not question this lockdown strategy driven by WHO , that has impacted on most peoples basic human rights, both monetary and just staying healthy - excercise in fresh air etc - and country after country adopted this unproven lockdown strategy, and to question such you were deemed more or less a traitor or a Gemma type nut.

And if there was no lock down then the health system (government provided, just to remind you) would be even more overwhelmed, then you'd hear about lack of human rights when the system couldn't cope.

charlie14

sydthebeat wrote: »

having followed sweden's numbers, today will be the last day of high numbers...

the total reported has partially caught up with their daily death numbers. i expect the weekends numbers to be very low which will continue through next week in the low double digits.

Their last 2 days have been 26 deaths each day and looking like lower today.

the only thing that could spike them again is if their nursing home deaths are covid confirmed and they are added in large groups.

Their approach seems to have worked well for them as their ICU units never really become overwhelmed. I was negative about their approach, and while im still skeptical of some of the number gathering processes, it seems their approach has worked for them. it will be interesting now to see if their economy now doesn't take a similar hit to comparable countries. While its wasnt a lockdown, it wasnt exactly a free for all either and their economy will definitely have taken something of a hit.

There may be something I am missing here, but from the stats I am following the death for the last two days are 256 (84 and 172) and today`s new cases at 751 are their highest to date.

sydthebeat

charlie14 wrote: »

There may be something I am missing here, but from the stats I am following the death for the last two days are 256 (84 and 172) and today`s new cases at 751 are their highest to date.

charlie this has been explained a few times to you already.

the numbers that are posted on the front page of the covid worldometer are the "reported" numbers, which basically means they have been administered by whomever has to administer them.

the actual numbers of deaths per day is the "avlidna / dag" figures as per the FHM records. see below for today:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

26 yesterday, 26 the day before, and at 3 today

its worth noting that the worldometer actually references this page as the source for its figures, but the "reported" numbers is that which comes from the presser of the minister for health AFAIK

so theres a lag between the inputting of the death into the system and the administration of that death. This explains the weekend drop off of figures and the inflated peaks mid week.

the point i was making in my previous post is that the cumulative total of the "reported" deaths has practically caught up with the "inputted" day to day number... therefore we shouldnt see any noticeable very high mid week peaks anymore..

Charles Babbage

wakka12 wrote: »

'New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%'

On worldometers

This would put serious question marks over the Swedish approach , there is no chance that there is anything close to herd immunity developing within Stockholm if it is only 21% in one of the densest and most cosmopolitan cities on earth, and also the disease appears to have a higher mortality rate than Tegnell believes

Things got somewhat out of control in New York, which would have inflated the fatality rate. Other estimates suggest 0.4-0.5% population fatality and this seems not far off. That would mean 20,000 fatalities on the island of Ireland, which is a lot of people.

thebaz

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Things got somewhat out of control in New York, which would have inflated the fatality rate. Other estimates suggest 0.4-0.5% population fatality and this seems not far off. That would mean 20,000 fatalities on the island of Ireland, which is a lot of people.

and yet even in this thread ther are people quoting fatality rates of 12% , and in other threads 21% , most experts would agree that it will be well under 1% as you say.

wakka12

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Things got somewhat out of control in New York, which would have inflated the fatality rate. Other estimates suggest 0.4-0.5% population fatality and this seems not far off. That would mean 20,000 fatalities on the island of Ireland, which is a lot of people.

Thats assuming literally everybody gets it though. Only 60-70% at most would get it, so maybe 15,000 deaths. It still is a lot though especially considering at least 50% if not up to 70% of those deaths will be in just one city . I'd agree it was probably inflated a bit in New York because of stress on the healthcare sector

sydthebeat

thebaz wrote: »

and yet even in this thread ther are people quoting fatality rates of 12% , and in other threads 21% , most experts would agree that it will be well under 1% as you say.

people are quoting deaths against confirmed cases to get to that figure, which is obviously not the 'mortality figure'

anyone claiming it is doesn't understand what they are trying to say.

Bit cynical

sydthebeat wrote: »

the actual numbers of deaths per day is the "avlidna / dag" figures as per the FHM records. see below for today:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

26 yesterday, 26 the day before, and at 3 today

Is it known how long it takes before a particular day's deaths are "complete"? By this I mean that the very recent days are likely to unreport deaths and will therefore change. But going further back, all the deaths for that particular day have been accounted for and will not change.

charlie14

sydthebeat wrote: »

charlie this has been explained a few times to you already.

the numbers that are posted on the front page of the covid worldometer are the "reported" numbers, which basically means they have been administered by whomever has to administer them.

the actual numbers of deaths per day is the "avlidna / dag" figures as per the FHM records. see below for today:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

26 yesterday, 26 the day before, and at 3 today

its worth noting that the worldometer actually references this page as the source for its figures, but the "reported" numbers is that which comes from the presser of the minister for health AFAIK

so theres a lag between the inputting of the death into the system and the administration of that death. This explains the weekend drop off of figures and the inflated peaks mid week.

the point i was making in my previous post is that the cumulative total of the "reported" deaths has practically caught up with the "inputted" day to day number... therefore we shouldnt see any noticeable very high mid week peaks anymore..

So when did the missing 386 deaths for the last three days occur (441 -55) and are the worldometer figure of new case for today of 751 correct ?

Att vara en hest

charlie14 wrote: »

So when did the missing 386 deaths for the last three days occur (441 -55) and are the worldometer figure of new case for today of 751 correct ?

See my post earlier today.. Anders Tegnell did say at the press conference yesterday that the numbers were high as they included deaths stretching all the way back in to March

SeaBreezes

https://twitter.com/PLJK1984/status/1252614177249787906