Sweden avoiding lockdown

wakka12

Well despite the backlog being gone the deaths remain high in Sweden. 130 announced today

IAMAMORON

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

It's interesting that it hasnt gone the way of Italy, France, and Spain, perhaps it will, but Sweden appears to have shown how social distancing is very impactful and less people moving around or congregating in large crowds at the beginning has an effect on initial spread, maybe. Who knows yet. Other countries got caught off-guard whereas Sweden, while not locking down heavily, still reacting with working from home, social distancing, etc.

I dont necessarily believe they're close to herd immunity, but it does seem like it's manageable for their healthcare services right now. Will be interesting to see numbers in Denmark, Austria, Spain, etc after they've eased some stuff but maintained strong social distancing rules.

Can't really disagree with anything here.

I am beginning to suspect that its' mutations have different potencies and viral loads. It also has been mooted for a while now that it struggles to survive outside of a human host under hot temperatures, this would definitely explain how it has struggled in Equatorial countries and in southern hemisphere countries during their summer, think Australia. for example.

There is also an argument about habitual density and lifestyle. Italian social life is family driven and it is not uncommon to have 3-4 generations to a household, given its appetite for the elderly you can see the danger here. That is before you imagine how touchy feely Italians are when they meet and greet ( that is not a criticism at all btw) . I also reckon that the virus was rampant there before they even realised it, they hadn't a chance. If you can imagine it was there before Christmas it is easy to see how widespread it became.

hmmm

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

It's interesting that it hasnt gone the way of Italy, France, and Spain, perhaps it will, but Sweden appears to have shown how social distancing is very impactful and less people moving around or congregating in large crowds at the beginning has an effect on initial spread, maybe. Who knows yet. Other countries got caught off-guard whereas Sweden, while not locking down heavily, still reacting with working from home, social distancing, etc.

Agreed with that. Some people seem to think Sweden have a free-for-all, when in fact what they have is a soft-lockdown not a million miles away from what we have. They are encouraging social distancing, and bars and restaurants are having to limit numbers and spread people out. Also, apparently 40% of Swedes live on their own, and they're not a particularly touchy-feely type of society.

They're showing us what may happen if we relax our restrictions slightly, but we shouldn't think they are a model for doing nothing. I'm not sure Irish people would be happy with the numbers of deaths Sweden are seeing for a start.

maninasia

Sweden isn't like most countries.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/524909/sweden-number-of-single-person-households/

The number of households in Sweden has been growing constantly and amounted to approximately 4.7 million in 2019, housing 10.33 million inhabitants. Most of the households in Sweden in 2018 were single-person households without children This category amounted to around 1.8 million.

Single household without children most common

Single-person households without children were the most common types of households in Sweden in 2019. Cohabitating or being married without children was the second most common household type.

wakka12

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Can't really disagree with anything here.

I am beginning to suspect that its' mutations have different potencies and viral loads. It also has been mooted for a while now that it struggles to survive outside of a human host under hot temperatures, this would definitely explain how it has struggled in Equatorial countries and in southern hemisphere countries during their summer, think Australia. for example.

There is also an argument about habitual density and lifestyle. Italian social life is family driven and it is not uncommon to have 3-4 generations to a household, given its appetite for the elderly you can see the danger here. That is before you imagine how touchy feely Italians are when they meet and greet ( that is not a criticism at all btw) . I also reckon that the virus was rampant there before they even realised it, they hadn't a chance. If you can imagine it was there before Christmas it is easy to see how widespread it became.

Its not really struggling in equatorial areas though, there is evidence of very extensive outbreaks in Brazil Ecuador and Indonesia

Mexico and Florida both passed 1000 deaths today also

IAMAMORON

wakka12 wrote: »

Well despite the backlog being gone the deaths remain high in Sweden. 130 announced today

The numbers game is over.

Think of how quickly the virus spread through Lombardy, population 10 million. They have suffered 12,940 deaths, they have been locked down for months now.

That is the same population as Sweden they have 2,000 deaths. 6 times less.

What Username Guidelines

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Can't really disagree with anything here.

I am beginning to suspect that its' mutations have different potencies and viral loads. It also has been mooted for a while now that it struggles to survive outside of a human host under hot temperatures, this would definitely explain how it has struggled in Equatorial countries and in southern hemisphere countries during their summer, think Australia. for example.

There is also an argument about habitual density and lifestyle. Italian social life is family driven and it is not uncommon to have 3-4 generations to a household, given its appetite for the elderly you can see the danger here. That is before you imagine how touchy feely Italians are when they meet and greet ( that is not a criticism at all btw) . I also reckon that the virus was rampant there before they even realised it, they hadn't a chance. If you can imagine it was there before Christmas it is easy to see how widespread it became.

I think the main things you could take from their response that bodes well for Ireland is that we acted early in terms of cases/deaths at time of restrictions, not necessarily the lockdown part, but the work from home, etc.. I know there is anecdotal evidence of restrictions slipping a little, but maybe that's ok, it's not like there are football matches or protests happening with 80,000 people.

Those who can are working from home, etc. You could also argue we're just pushing the problem out until later. It's been 11 days since Spain sent some non-essential workers back, numbers should be interesting to watch over the next few days. Big jump for them today but it appears they're including anti-body tests so some historical cases.

maninasia

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The numbers game is over.

Think of how quickly the virus spread through Lombardy, population 10 million. They have suffered 12,940 deaths, they have been locked down for months now.

That is the same population as Sweden they have 2,000 deaths. 6 times less.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/728061/number-of-single-person-households-italy/


8.5 million of the 60 million total population live in single households. In Sweden it is 1.7 out of 10.3 million I believe. Not massively different, but it may depend on how many people and generations live in one average multi person household .

That's without looking at urban population density.

maninasia

markjbloggs wrote: »

Wrong - I'm Irish and I am willing to be part of that experiment. WHO has repeatedly been wrong/influenced through all this and its' guidance is suspect to say the least. WHO guidance provides nothing more than a prophylactic for our sycophant politicians not to take the tough decisions necessary to get this cpuntry out of this mess.

How old are you ?:cool:

IAMAMORON

wakka12 wrote: »

Its not really struggling in equatorial areas though, there is evidence of very extensive outbreaks in Brazil Ecuador and Indonesia

Mexico and Florida both passed 1000 deaths today also

It will pass via humans.

For reference current figures in,

Brazil infected 49,990, deaths 3,300 population 212 million
Ecuador infected 11,183 deaths 560 population 17 million
Indonesia infected 8,211 deaths 689 population 274 million
Mexico infected 11.633 deaths 1,069 there have been more murders in Mexico population 127 million.

There are 987 dead in Florida , population 21 million.

Ireland has a worse death rate than all of your examples.

What is your point exactly? I have no issue discussing facts and figures , but if you are going to use them to try and ridicule what I am trying to say please get your fact right. There are no " very extensive outbreaks" in the countries you listed?

markjbloggs

maninasia wrote: »

How old are you ?:cool:

What did you have for breakfast?

wakka12

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It will pass via humans.

For reference current figures in,

Brazil infected 49,990, deaths 3,300 population 212 million
Ecuador infected 11,183 deaths 560 population 17 million
Indonesia infected 8,211 deaths 689 population 274 million
Mexico infected 11.633 deaths 1,069 there have been more murders in Mexico population 127 million.

There are 987 dead in Florida , population 21 million.

Ireland has a worse death rate than all of your examples.

What is your point exactly? I have no issue discussing facts and figures , but if you are going to use them to try and ridicule what I am trying to say please get your fact right. There are no " very extensive outbreaks" in the countries you listed?

They are the official figures and pretty useless if a country is not reporting most of it's deaths. Its why I said 'evidence of' extensive outbreaks in those countries.
President of ecuador has himself stated that deaths are underreported
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/20/838746457/covid-19-numbers-are-bad-in-ecuador-the-president-says-the-real-story-is-even-wo

As has the governor of Jakarta Indonesia
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/04/asia-pacific/jakarta-funerals-unreported-coronavirus-deaths/#.XqLqVVNKgb0

Same story in Brazil
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/04/medics-in-brazil-fear-official-coronavirus-tally-ignores-a-mountain-of-deaths

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
Excess deaths in Indonesia and Ecudaor are thousands above monthly average.

And the fact that Ireland has a higher death rate doesnt mean anything given that Ireland has experienced a short lived but widespread outbreak of COVID itself which was thankfully stopped pretty soon after it started..Anyway I wasnt ridiculing your point I dont know why you would take it personally. My point was exactly as I previously stated, there is evidence of extensive outbreaks in a number of countries with tropical climates.

cnocbui

maninasia wrote: »

How old are you ?:cool:

So I take it you agree the virus isn't airborne, masks don't work to protect the wearer and it's now safe for wet markets to be re-opened. :rolleyes: right back at ya.

maninasia

markjbloggs wrote: »

What did you have for breakfast?

Cheese and crackers

maninasia

cnocbui wrote: »

So I take it you agree the virus isn't airborne, masks don't work to protect the wearer and it's now safe for wet markets to be re-opened. :rolleyes: right back at ya.

Eh

cnocbui

maninasia wrote: »

Eh

All words of wisdom from the WHO.

biko

17567 cases
2152 dead
12.25% deaths of known cases

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

biko

It took 4 weeks to go from 0 to 1000 dead.
It took 2 weeks to go from 1000 to 2000 dead.

If this thing don't plateau we will see 3000 dead in a week or so.

sydthebeat

biko wrote: »

It took 4 weeks to go from 0 to 1000 dead.
It took 2 weeks to go from 1000 to 2000 dead.

If this thing don't plateau we will see 3000 dead in a week or so.

the average number of 'deaths per day' for the last 7 days was 57 per day... and dropping.

the average 'deaths per day' for the 7 days previous to that was 97 (which was their highest 7 day period)

even following that downward trend, and suggesting a 2/3 drop off, you can extrapolate approx 25 deaths per day for the next 7 days ... which will be approx 175 deaths in the next week... not 1000

the caveat being of course unless there's a large number of not yet confirmed cases added in (such as nursing homes etc)

edit: interesting to note the daily death rate is being augmented upwards for some days afterwards.
ie where i said yesterday that the previous two days were 26 each, these have now being augmented to 42 and 40 each

IAMAMORON

wakka12 wrote: »

They are the official figures and pretty useless if a country is not reporting most of it's deaths. Its why I said 'evidence of' extensive outbreaks in those countries.
President of ecuador has himself stated that deaths are underreported
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/20/838746457/covid-19-numbers-are-bad-in-ecuador-the-president-says-the-real-story-is-even-wo

As has the governor of Jakarta Indonesia
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/04/asia-pacific/jakarta-funerals-unreported-coronavirus-deaths/#.XqLqVVNKgb0

Same story in Brazil
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/04/medics-in-brazil-fear-official-coronavirus-tally-ignores-a-mountain-of-deaths

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
Excess deaths in Indonesia and Ecudaor are thousands above monthly average.

And the fact that Ireland has a higher death rate doesnt mean anything given that Ireland has experienced a short lived but widespread outbreak of COVID itself which was thankfully stopped pretty soon after it started..Anyway I wasnt ridiculing your point I dont know why you would take it personally. My point was exactly as I previously stated, there is evidence of extensive outbreaks in a number of countries with tropical climates.

I didn't sleep well. But I still don't think the virus is an issue in Brazil.

Take a city like Sao Paulo. Population 12 million with extreme densities. Surely it should be really bad there?

It is too early to tell but there is evidence that the virus will not survive on surfaces above 26 degrees, this links in with equatorial countries and would explain its' lack of potency in the southern hemisphere. That could well reverse when their winter starts next month.

plodder

An Indian colleague was telling me that it is spreading quite fast in parts of India where the weather is currently very hot (over 30 degrees) which is normal for there - Rajasthan.

IAMAMORON

plodder wrote: »

An Indian colleague was telling me that it is spreading quite fast in parts of India where the weather is currently very hot (over 30 degrees) which is normal for there - Rajasthan.

Heat will not stunt the contagion of the virus from human to human, if it does at all. But there is growing argument around the temperature survival on cold surfaces, its' cousin Sars1 had similar frailties.

Given India's population it is astonishing that more people are not being decimated. However I would not underestimate any natural antibodies prevalent amongst ethnic Indians to combat the virus. India is a hot bed for all sorts of diseases, as such Indian people have very robust immune systems.

Given India's population of 1 billion people is it not fair to say that it's death toll of 723 is miniscule? I respect that your colleague probably knows more about how "fast " it is spreading though. Where is the epicentre in India?

wakka12

The numbers of people infected in India is completely unknown. Theyve tested one in every 2500 citizens vs one in every 44 people in Ireland. Even if millions of people are infected there it could be completely missed given how low that rate of testing is

thebaz

biko wrote: »

17567 cases
2152 dead
12.25% deaths of known cases

Why always quote this 12.25% death rate ? - when most people know that it is mainly the very sick that are being tested - young and healthy and asymtomatic are not getting tested, meaning the real death rate will be somewhere under 1% , according to experts and satisticians such as at Stannford University.
This 12.25 figure will only generate extra fear in people that may be overly worried already.

coastwatch

biko wrote: »

17567 cases
2152 dead
12.25% deaths of known cases

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

thebaz wrote: »

Why always quote this 12.25% death rate ? - when most people know that it is mainly the very sick that are being tested - young and healthy and asymtomatic are not getting tested, meaning the real death rate will be somewhere under 1% , according to experts and satisticians such as at Stannford University.
This 12.25 figure will only generate extra fear in people that may be overly worried already.

I think the point biko is making is that Sweden's confirmed case numbers are a gross under estimate.

wakka12

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Heat will not stunt the contagion of the virus from human to human, if it does at all. But there is growing argument around the temperature survival on cold surfaces, its' cousin Sars1 had similar frailties.

Given India's population it is astonishing that more people are not being decimated. However I would not underestimate any natural antibodies prevalent amongst ethnic Indians to combat the virus. India is a hot bed for all sorts of diseases, as such Indian people have very robust immune systems.

Given India's population of 1 billion people is it not fair to say that it's death toll of 723 is miniscule? I respect that your colleague probably knows more about how "fast " it is spreading though. Where is the epicentre in India?

Ecuador just reported 11500 new cases

IAMAMORON

coastwatch wrote: »

I think the point biko is making is that Sweden's confirmed case numbers are a gross under estimate.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Are they though? Why would they lie? I mean that. Sweden is an entirely progressive democracy, their citizens would simply not tolerate any cover ups from their government. I don't believe for a second that they are undercooking the numbers.

It does look like they are only testing potential cases, but I have no issue with that given the global deficiency in test kits.

Roger_007

IAMAMORON wrote: »

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Are they though? Why would they lie? I mean that. Sweden is an entirely progressive democracy, their citizens would simply not tolerate any cover ups from their government. I don't believe for a second that they are undercooking the numbers.

It does look like they are only testing potential cases, but I have no issue with that given the global deficiency in test kits.

The Swedish government has always maintained that the measures they took were on medical and scientific advice. The Swedish CMO was interviewed on TV last night and he defended their strategy mainly on the grounds that it would be sustainable for as long as necessary while other countries adopted a strategy which is not sustainable either in human or economic terms.
As time passes it looks increasingly like the Swedes took a wise well-considered decision while most others just panicked.

Danzy

Hector Savage wrote: »

Sweden aren't having lockdowns as they couldn't control their migrant population, it's that simple, they know it will bring more trouble.

Lot of truth in that.

IAMAMORON

wakka12 wrote: »

Ecuador just reported 11500 new cases

Do you have a link?

They were only reporting 11,000 yesterday. If they are reporting 11,500 new cases that means their infections doubled in a day?