Sweden avoiding lockdown

Greentopia

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

Their economy - and employment, is structured in a very different way to ours.

That is not to say that comparison isn't appropriate, just to say that don't arrive at conclusions too quickly.

Some of the recent David McWilliams podcasts touch on the subject if you are interested.

Yes I know there are differences, Ireland is a more open economy and we're a lot more dependent on foreign multinationals, but out of work is out of work whether it's here or any other country. Supports and unemployment entitlements differ though. You can't compare A-Kassa to the dole here for example.

Thanks I'll check him out.

Harry Palmr

Greentopia wrote: »

Whatever we think about Sweden's handling of this it seems Swedes are still by and large supportive of their government's measures.

For the second month in a row the Social Democrats have seen a rise in support for them to 30% according to SVT reportage, while the Sweden Democrats far right populist party have seen a small drop in support.

This in spite of the news from the Swedish Finance Minister that unemployment can rise to 11% this year and GDP fall by 7%.

That's exactly half the projected unemployment figure for Ireland this year and also less than the possible GDP fall of 13.8% IF economic activity only recovers in the fourth quarter of this year.

Those are still very alarming figures in Sweden but compared to us it looks like they're getting off lightly economically. So far anyway.

Tories support is up in the UK, in a time of crisis the incumbent gets a boost out of some sort of gesture for being in power during a time of crisis.

Bit cynical

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Sweden keeps increasing in daily new cases, hopefully they are prepared for what comes next

Leveling off and decline?

Greentopia

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Tories support is up in the UK, in a time of crisis the incumbent gets a boost out of some sort of gesture for being in power during a time of crisis.

Yes they had a Professor of Political Science explaining the boost for the Soc Dems and he said it was for that reason also.

Their higher death toll than neighbouring countries doesn't seem to have impacted on that.

Breezin

Greentopia wrote: »

Yes they had a Professor of Political Science explaining the boost for the Soc Dems and he said it was for that reason also.

Their higher death toll than neighbouring countries doesn't seem to have impacted on that.

That's because they know and accept that their strategy implies more cases in the short term. That is the essential difference.

Higher daily stats now does not indicate failure.

Bit cynical

Breezin wrote: »

That's because they know and accept that their strategy implies more cases in the short term. That is the essential difference.

Higher daily stats now does not indicate failure.

I think the policy could be considered failure in the event that effective treatments become available earlier than expected. The Swedes are playing it safe by not assuming that will happen and therefore relying on sustainable curve flattening measures.

Other countries, for example, Ireland have unsustainable lockdowns and are relying on the development of effective treatments and relatively early availability of a vaccine which will allow restrictions to be lifted without a resurgence of the disease and before the money runs out or people start ignoring guidelines.

dubrov

Bit cynical wrote:

I think the policy could be considered failure in the event that effective treatments become available earlier than expected. The Swedes are playing it safe by not assuming that will happen and therefore relying on sustainable curve flattening measures.

It's very likely Ireland will have similar measures in place in the next 6-8 weeks.

The chances of effective treatments being in place by then are close to zero

Bit cynical

dubrov wrote: »

It's very likely Ireland will have similar measures in place in the next 6-8 weeks.

The chances of effective treatments being in place by then are close to zero

I think the problem we will face here is that personal fear of the virus is disappearing. That is what kept people indoors in the early days and made them enthusiastic about legally enforced lockdowns.

IAMAMORON

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Stockholm has less than 1 million population, it's the biggest city in Sweden
Many countries in Europe have high density cities that are a lot more challenging to manage during an outbreak.
Whether Sweden did the right thing or not will depend on how they handle the emergency when it happens there

The next time your playing with your crystal ball will you ask it to get its' facts right? The population of the greater Stockholm area is around 2.4 million.

growleaves

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, explains why he believes lockdowns are the wrong policy.

charlie14

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The next time your playing with your crystal ball will you ask it to get its' facts right? The population of the greater Stockholm area is around 2.4 million.

In fairness to the poster it appears it depends on which Stockholm is being referred too. Just under 1 million live in the Stockholm municipality, but the 2.4 million figure is the Stockholm metropolitan area which includes 25 other municipalities.

RasTa

No chance that lad works for a Swedish company in Barcelona

biko

It's the internet, you can be whatever you want to be.

biko

charlie14 wrote: »

In fairness to the poster it appears it depends on which Stockholm is being referred too. Just under 1 million live in the Stockholm municipality, but the 2.4 million figure is the Stockholm metropolitan area which includes 25 other municipalities.

Much like the Greater Dublin Area, a region comprising Dublin and the counties of Meath, Kildare and Wicklow. (The Pale pretty much)

wakka12

Usually cities have 3 population distinctions , 'city' 'urban' and 'metro'

I think the urban is usually the most representative as it includes suburbs and inner city districts just outside the city centre. I'd usually classify Dublin as a city of 1.2 million people, which is it's 'urban' population. Many people within the metro area, which incudes several counties outside Dublin, would not consider themselves to live in Dublin. Similarly, the city classification for Dublin is a population of 500k and is basically just the area inside the canal.This excludes many people who would of course consider themselves to be Dubliners, people living in Howth, Dun Laoghaire , Dundrum, Blackrock, Tallaght and Blanchardstown.

Based off that situation in Dublin, its probably more accurate to say Stockholm has a population of 1.6 million.
I dont think anyone would really say Dublin has a population of 1.9 million.(which is its metro population)

whippet

Speaking my my brother over the weekend who is based about an hour north of Stockholm .. he has done a full 180 from his earlier opinion that the Swedish government were doing the wrong thing.

It is more or less business as usual and no real detriment to the local economy in the medium term.

However he really believes that the Swedish policy could not have worked in Ireland or the Uk .. the reason.... Swedish culture. If they are told to do something they will do it .. naturally they social distance anyway and people tend not to socialise outside of their immediate family.

If we were asked to social distance as a society we wouldn’t really do it properly .. hence the need for a full lock down.

also .. he believes the Swedish nature is to accept that the older generation will be hit hard but that’s life.

niallo27

whippet wrote: »

Speaking my my brother over the weekend who is based about an hour north of Stockholm .. he has done a full 180 from his earlier opinion that the Swedish government were doing the wrong thing.

It is more or less business as usual and no real detriment to the local economy in the medium term.

However he really believes that the Swedish policy could not have worked in Ireland or the Uk .. the reason.... Swedish culture. If they are told to do something they will do it .. naturally they social distance anyway and people tend not to socialise outside of their immediate family.

If we were asked to social distance as a society we wouldn’t really do it properly .. hence the need for a full lock down.

also .. he believes the Swedish nature is to accept that the older generation will be hit hard but that’s life.

I don't agree, if I go into any shop that has been marked off, everyone keeps their distance. Everyone is doing it at my workplace. We were all told to stay at home and I believe 95% are following this. We are quick to knock ourselves.

whippet

niallo27 wrote: »

I don't agree, if I go into any shop that has been marked off, everyone keeps their distance. Everyone is doing it at my workplace. We were all told to stay at home and I believe 95% are following this. We are quick to knock ourselves.

That’s fine in shops where there is some form of laying it out and being observed. However - if there wasn’t legislation to make social gatherings illegal there would be house party’s all over the place and people would be visiting in each other etc. This isn’t a fear or problem for the Swedes as they naturally will just accept the guidelines without the need for legislative powers.

I’m not knocking the Irish culture - I am just stating that the Swedes by their nature are inclined to be socially distant and are generally more compliant with directions from central government.

The swedes don’t have a culture of being sneaky or bending rules

Blut2

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Stockholm has less than 1 million population, it's the biggest city in Sweden
Many countries in Europe have high density cities that are a lot more challenging to manage during an outbreak.
Whether Sweden did the right thing or not will depend on how they handle the emergency when it happens there

Stockholm is the 16th largest city in the European Union, with the 22nd highest population density of any region in the EU. Many areas with much smaller populations and much lower population density have done far, far worse.

Trying to imply the success of Sweden's policy is down to Stockholm being either small or low density are both completely wrong.

Theres no chance we have any sort of treatment for corona in the next 6 weeks - both from the scientific research side, and from an industrial manufacturing side. Does anyone really think we're going to have the ability to produce literally billions of doses of any new treatment, and ship it everywhere around the world, in that time scale? Every informed estimate from scientists is still 18 months ish.

Which means Ireland will be moving to Sweden's model very much sooner rather than later.

cnocbui

I believe the vulnerable elderly will all be wiped out by this. The lock down has flattened the curve, but the death toll will eventually be the same. Sweden's approach just means they they are bringing forward the cull. Lock down countries probably should just accept the reality, as the Swedes have done, and save their economies now.

After this, all Western economies should have a big re-think about globalisation and move back to using import duties to increase local manufacture of goods. Personally I'd whack 40- 60% on anything coming from China, from now on.

Wibbs

whippet wrote: »

also .. he believes the Swedish nature is to accept that the older generation will be hit hard but that’s life.

Possibly alright. For all the right on vibe to Sweden of late, they were sterilising the disabled and the "anti social" into the 21st century. Social Darwinism was quite the thing there, so that attitude wouldn't overly surprise me.

biko

Sweden said in the beginning they would protect the elderly, they didn't.
Has anyone asked they elderly if they are ok with dying, no they haven't.

Sweden did not manage to protect its most vulnerable citizens, and now they make out it's ok.
Like when Agnes Wold, bacteriologist, said "it's fortunate the virus mainly kills old people".

Frighteningly callous.

wakka12

cnocbui wrote: »

I believe the vulnerable elderly will all be wiped out by this. The lock down has flattened the curve, but the death toll will eventually be the same. Sweden's approach just means they they are bringing forward the cull. Lock down countries probably should just accept the reality, as the Swedes have done, and save their economies now.

After this, all Western economies should have a big re-think about globalisation and move back to using import duties to increase local manufacture of goods. Personally I'd whack 40- 60% on anything coming from China, from now on.

If they cocoon, they wont be. I know for a fact my granny and grandad wont as they are not going to leave the house until its completely safe.They are taking every precaution, and happy to do so if it keeps them safe, there is just no chance of them getting the virus. It just depends on the individual old person and how much risk they are willing to take.There are hundreds of thousands of vulnerable old people in Ireland so it defintiely wont kill them all

The next year will be a very trying time for the elderly of society though, I'd say there will be unprecedented levels of depression amongst that demographic by the time a vaccine arrives

AdamD

biko wrote: »

Sweden said in the beginning they would protect the elderly, they didn't.
Has anyone asked they elderly if they are ok with dying, no they haven't.

Sweden did not manage to protect its most vulnerable citizens, and now they make out it's ok.
Frighteningly callous.

Have Ireland protected theirs?

whippet

biko wrote: »

Sweden said in the beginning they would protect the elderly, they didn't.
Has anyone asked they elderly if they are ok with dying, no they haven't.

Sweden did not manage to protect its most vulnerable citizens, and now they make out it's ok.
Frighteningly callous.

Again this is a cultural thing - one which the Irish or the British wouldn’t find acceptable - hence why the Swedish are taking the approach they are.

In a society where it isn’t unusual or frowned upon to check public records to ascertain what your neighbour or family member paid in taxes and report if you think they are living beyond their means - very common occurrence.

Government policy is dictated by society and how society will react - so you can’t really fully compare one nation’s actions to those of others

biko

AdamD wrote: »

Have Ireland protected theirs?

Are you in the right thread? This is about Sweden.

But I'm sure you already know the answer to your "question".

ger664

biko wrote: »

Sweden said in the beginning they would protect the elderly, they didn't.
Has anyone asked they elderly if they are ok with dying, no they haven't.

Sweden did not manage to protect its most vulnerable citizens, and now they make out it's ok.
Like when Agnes Wold, bacteriologist, said "it's fortunate the virus mainly kills old people".

Frighteningly callous.

We are not doing to well on that either. CIDR reported that 91.7% of deaths in Ireland are 65+ and ~35% of clustrer infections are in Nursing Homes

whippet

AdamD wrote: »

Have Ireland protected theirs?

My mother is in a nursing home ... and media reports would have me worried sick. I have been in contact quite regularly with the management of the home and from my last call on Friday morning the manager assured me that they still have no confirmed or unconfirmed cases and the HSE we due to test everyone yesterday morning.

I asked her how they were coping and she pointed out that about 70% of nursing homes have no confirmed cases (the media would lead you to believe that they are all in trouble). She said they are coping fine - staff are putting in heroic levels of work and hours but she didn’t seem overly worried and were confident in being in a position to deal with the worst if it happens,

While the confirmed clusters must be horror shows - you really have to ask what central government could have done to stop it ?

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

After this, all Western economies should have a big re-think about globalisation and move back to using import duties to increase local manufacture of goods. Personally I'd whack 40- 60% on anything coming from China, from now on.

I`m not a great fan of globalisation, but you may not have thought this through.
What happens if all other countries do the same.
For one our whole agriculture sector would be wiped out overnight.

whippet

cnocbui wrote: »

After this, all Western economies should have a big re-think about globalisation and move back to using import duties to increase local manufacture of goods. Personally I'd whack 40- 60% on anything coming from China, from now on.

‘Cos protectionism worked really well in the past