Sweden avoiding lockdown

Cuddlesworth

wakka12 wrote: »

It's obviously during covid. Anyone who's been to Scandinavia knows the people are not distant to the extent of the ridiculous stereotypes mentioned on the recent boards threads

You'd wonder how the birth rate isn't zero and swedes havnt all died of depression and loneliness if they acted like some people claim they do

I've been to Sweden. it's not really setup like Ireland, especially the further north you go, so it's hard to compare the two directly.

Roger_007

wakka12 wrote: »

It's obviously during covid. Anyone who's been to Scandinavia knows the people are not distant to the extent of the ridiculous stereotypes mentioned on the recent boards threads

You'd wonder how the birth rate isn't zero and swedes havnt all died of depression and loneliness if they acted like some people claim they do

Having visited Stockholm a couple of years ago and observed the stunning native women, I can assure you that there is no danger of the birth rate dropping to zero.;)

Blut2

STB. wrote: »

If you could get your statistics right please.

The link in my post - https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/coronavirus-covid-19/socialstyrelsens-roll-och-uppdrag/ - is an official Swedish government website. Its verified figures are up to date as of April 24th.

I have no idea where the data in your completely unsourced, undated, chart is from, or when, but its clearly not accurate currently.

1131 ICU places is the verified, accurate figure.

-

biko I can only presume from your complete lack of response to the figures that you're admitting you were wrong. Thats good to see.

biko

18926 cases
2274 dead
12% deaths of known cases

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

eastie17

thebaz wrote: »

it really is quite a turnaround, given they have been rubbishing the anti-body immunity testing for a week, when most doctors I have heard say anti-bodys should offer some protection, for probably a year - WHO were basically saying these anti-body tests are useless, just as they are being rolled out , and in particular to the healthcare professionals, and then today to change ther position, is frankly quite reckless, for an organisation who are supposedly leading this pandemic fight.

I think they lost that leadership position a while back. They were the ones saying "travel away lads, tis grand" early on. Yes I know, couldn't predict etc etc but the point is that is their role, to predict and allow Governments to then kick in their own interpretation and say "they said it, we are following their advise"
Very few governments were going to go against what the WHO was saying.
Plus the WHO are funded to know more about this than anyone else, thats one of their sole reasons for existence.

Greentopia

Breezin wrote: »

That's because they know and accept that their strategy implies more cases in the short term. That is the essential difference.

Higher daily stats now does not indicate failure.

Agree on both points!

Greentopia

growleaves wrote: »

He also said that individual restaurants have been closed down in Sweden by local authorities due to failure to enforce social distancing.

I still don't buy that Swedes 'naturally social distance'. Not in my experience they don't. Does anyone naturally always stand 2m apart from others?

I mentioned that they naturally socially distance but it was more tongue in cheek remark.

It's well known in Sweden that they value more personal space than most other countries though. I couldn't find any scientific sources to back it up, but this book someone wrote took a humorous look at it. All you need to do is stand at any bus or tram stop there to see it, and generally the further north you go the more space they need. I've heard them say they would rather stand than have to sit beside a stranger on a bus.

Believe me I noticed this myself after 8 years there. If you engage them in conversation as a stranger they won't stand 2 metres back perhaps but they'll definitely want to keep you at arms length. While checking you out with some suspicion to see if you're either drunk or insane for talking to them.
Then they will relax and love chatting to you once they find out you're Irish.

Friends and family are allowed closer naturally.

jaykay74

STB. wrote: »

If you could get your statistics right please.

<Table from 2012 study>

jaykay74 wrote: »

How up to date is that table ?

For instance the same table is shown here in an article from 2012 (which is listed as the source at the bottom of the table... The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe).

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8

I guess the table is not up to date then ?

IAMAMORON

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Just worldometers. It is a very big increase, perhaps its a mistake

Country only has a pop of 17m, if it is correct number it is probably the biggest daily increase in cases per capita in the world

This now looks correct. See link to their national website, it states almost 23,000 infected. Looks rough.

https://coronavirusecuador.com/

It just goes to show that the internet is just information overload. People can pick and choose information almost at random and link it. It really needs to be examined carefully and the Daily Mail should only be used for looking at photos of celebrities doing their shopping.

Bit cynical

Mic 1972 wrote: »

new cases are on the rise, that's what i meant

They don't appear to be. Their reporting is very sporadic with some days very high numbers and some days very low. The recent high figure is preceded by a very low number of just two reported the previous day. Neither of these reflect the actual deaths on a day but rather the reporting of deaths that occurred over the previous couple of weeks.

What you need to do is look at a chart for deaths over the course of the outbreak and maybe a 7 day moving average. In this instance we are definitely seeing a levelling off and possibly a slight downturn though it is still a little early to tell.

Blut2

Sweden now (data up to April 28th) has fewer deaths per million people than Ireland (and plenty of other countries). So much for all the doom & gloom types in this thread predicting an apocalypse there.

The more time that goes by the more vindicated the Swedish approach is being proven. They're achieving better results than Ireland, while only suffering a fraction of the economic damage.

Why are you comparing them to Ireland and not the neighbours they share a border with, i.e. Denmark, Finland & Norway?

Oh that's right, because you have an opinion that you want to be true so you'll deliberately mislead with statistics to try make it true. Even though it isn't, you're just trying to lie by omission.


Norway: 38 deaths per million
Denmark: 75 deaths per million
Finland: 36 deaths per million

Sweden, using a very restrictive methodology for classifying a death as from covid-19: 233 deaths per million

You're a fraud. Keep it to Twitter or Facebook where people can't point out that you're peddling absolute nonsense.

To make it even worse for your 'argument', here are the testing figures;

Norway: 166k tests / 30,611 tests per million
Denmark: 166k tests / 28,805 tests per million
Finland: 86k tests / 15,485 tests per million
Sweden: 120k tests / 11,833 tests per milliom

IAMAMORON

It is hard not to be guarded given how successful they have been all things considered. But it is apparent that the virus has not been spreading as aggressively as anticipated, which is brilliant news for the Swedish people.

I am always worried of " I told you so" posts also. We will not be witnessing the real fallout of this pandemic for months and months. The longer the pandemic goes on the more issues will arise.

One item that is rarely spoken about in the Swedish out break is the lack of spread in its' other cities such as Malmo and Gothenburg. For example in Stockholm they have suffered almost 1,400 deaths. Compare that with Vastra Gotaland ( Gothenburg and surrounding) with 176 deaths. The figures are substantially different based on population levels. If you take the Stockholm figures in isolation ( oops ) their numbers do not look so smug.

Blut2

Deleted User wrote: »

Why are you comparing them to Ireland and not the neighbours they share a border with, i.e. Denmark, Finland & Norway?

In regards to comparisons to their neighbours, Sweden has had far higher rates of infection and death in elderly homes, where more than half of the country’s Covid-19 deaths have occurred. In Norway and the others, this isn't the case. Ireland has had a far more comparable ratio of infection clusters in elderly homes. But rather more relevantly than that, my post is comparing Sweden to Ireland because this is a thread on an Irish forum, about Sweden, where most of the discussion has centered on comparing their approach to ours.

Theres nothing remotely misleading about the deaths per million statistics - they speak for themselves. Its a very clear "success rate". Sweden's approach has worked better than Irelands. And has done far, far less economic damage in the process - meaning its going to save a lot more lives in the long run when it comes to things like deaths of despair, economic damage related suicides, healthcare funding in 2 years time for cancer treatments etc.

Though it is true, its worth noting that the Danish, Finnish and Norwegians have all also been massively more successful than the Irish government has been, too. And this despite them all having looser lockdowns than us. Businesses, schools etc have all already started to reopen there. Theres probably enough material there for another comparison thread, too.

cooperguy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why are you comparing them to Ireland and not the neighbours they share a border with, i.e. Denmark, Finland & Norway?

Oh that's right, because you have an opinion that you want to be true so you'll deliberately mislead with statistics to try make it true. Even though it isn't, you're just trying to lie by omission.


Norway: 38 deaths per million
Denmark: 75 deaths per million
Finland: 36 deaths per million

Sweden, using a very restrictive methodology for classifying a death as from covid-19: 233 deaths per million

You're a fraud. Keep it to Twitter or Facebook where people can't point out that you're peddling absolute nonsense.

To make it even worse for your 'argument', here are the testing figures;

Norway: 166k tests / 30,611 tests per million
Denmark: 166k tests / 28,805 tests per million
Finland: 86k tests / 15,485 tests per million
Sweden: 120k tests / 11,833 tests per milliom

Also worth pointing out that Ireland has some of the broadest reporting criteria in the world. Ireland reports deaths no matter where it occurs even if they dont test the patient for COVID and just suspect the death might be related.

charlie14

cooperguy wrote: »

Also worth pointing out that Ireland has some of the broadest reporting criteria in the world. Ireland reports deaths no matter where it occurs even if they dont test the patient for COVID and just suspect the death might be related.

Just on that point. Yesterday Sweden`s National Board of Health and Welfare publish a new set of data which suggested the real death toll from coronavirus could be up to 10% higher than the Public Health Agency figures

Blut2

Blut2 wrote: »

In regards to comparisons to their neighbours, Sweden has had far higher rates of infection and death in elderly homes, where more than half of the country’s Covid-19 deaths have occurred. In Norway and the others, this isn't the case. Ireland has had a far more comparable ratio of infection clusters in elderly homes. But rather more relevantly than that, my post is comparing Sweden to Ireland because this is a thread on an Irish forum, about Sweden, where most of the discussion has centered on comparing their approach to ours.

One estimate puts up to half of Norway's deaths occuring in care homes. Rather than being disingenuous, you're literally lying now.





There are also multiple reports out about coronavirus spreading through Danish nursing homes, they just haven't been able to separate the nursing home figures from the general figures yet


1)https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/12-beboere-paa-plejehjem-i-koebenhavn-doede-med-coronavirus
2)http://cphpost.dk/?p=113449




"Because Sweden's neighbours enacted swift lockdown measures, widespread testing and contact tracing and successfully slowed down coronavirus, we shouldn't compare Sweden against them as it wouldn't be fair"


That is one of the most disgustingly anti-intellectual things I've read today, and I browsed reddit for an hour.

Theres nothing remotely misleading about the deaths per million statistics - they speak for themselves.

They don't. Your deliberate warping and skewing speaks for itself. As does your lying when that's pointed out.

Its a very clear "success rate". Sweden's approach has worked better than Irelands.

Citation needed. Why are you ignoring Sweden's restrictive approach to what constitutes a coronavirus fatality?

And has done far, far less economic damage in the process

Citation needed


https://www.reuters.com/article/sweden-cenbank-forecast/table-swedish-cbank-sees-economy-contracting-more-than-during-financial-crisis-idUSS3N29P01E

meaning its going to save a lot more lives in the long run when it comes to things like deaths of despair, economic damage related suicides, healthcare funding in 2 years time for cancer treatments etc.

Citation needed.

Even during the worst of the recession reported suicides didn't go above 124 per million (up from 108 per million in the halycon celtic tiger days of 2007) and actual metrics like cancer survival rates didn't decline.

Though it is true, its worth noting that the Danish, Finnish and Norwegians have all also been massively more successful than the Irish government has been, too. And this despite them all having looser lockdowns than us. Businesses, schools etc have all already started to reopen there. Theres probably enough material there for another comparison thread, too.

They didn't have looser lockdowns. They had quicker lockdowns and did more testing earlier. Case in point, Norway introduced a 'no visit' policy to carehomes early on whereas Ireland's NPHET overturned a voluntary 'no visit' policy. They also banned international travel other than for inbound citizens on March 16th. Denmark and Finland likewise took precipitous action.



Why are you addicted to lying?


Actually **** it, I'm not sure why I'm bothering. It's clear that you're someone who thinks "data is anything that agrees with my opinion" and that "anything that doesn't agree with my opinion isn't data".

You're a disgrace and if the mods had any balls, they'd be banning users like you for peddling blatantly false information during a national emergency.

charlie14

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It is hard not to be guarded given how successful they have been all things considered. But it is apparent that the virus has not been spreading as aggressively as anticipated, which is brilliant news for the Swedish people.

I am always worried of " I told you so" posts also. We will not be witnessing the real fallout of this pandemic for months and months. The longer the pandemic goes on the more issues will arise.

One item that is rarely spoken about in the Swedish out break is the lack of spread in its' other cities such as Malmo and Gothenburg. For example in Stockholm they have suffered almost 1,400 deaths. Compare that with Vastra Gotaland ( Gothenburg and surrounding) with 176 deaths. The figures are substantially different based on population levels. If you take the Stockholm figures in isolation ( oops ) their numbers do not look so smug.

Great news for the Swedish people as you say, if the virus is not spreading as aggressively as anticipated, but would that not also mean they are nowhere near the numbers for this herd immunity they appeared to be basing much of their strategy on ?
I know there is still some mention of it for Stockholm, but they appear to be downplaying that of late.

wakka12

What makes Sweden's recording of deaths by COVID restrictive?

wakka12

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It is hard not to be guarded given how successful they have been all things considered. But it is apparent that the virus has not been spreading as aggressively as anticipated, which is brilliant news for the Swedish people.

I am always worried of " I told you so" posts also. We will not be witnessing the real fallout of this pandemic for months and months. The longer the pandemic goes on the more issues will arise.

One item that is rarely spoken about in the Swedish out break is the lack of spread in its' other cities such as Malmo and Gothenburg. For example in Stockholm they have suffered almost 1,400 deaths. Compare that with Vastra Gotaland ( Gothenburg and surrounding) with 176 deaths. The figures are substantially different based on population levels. If you take the Stockholm figures in isolation ( oops ) their numbers do not look so smug.

Wow thats shocking, Stockholm is only like 15-20% of Sweden's population. 1400 deaths in a city of 1.6 million is not good. In fact its really bad, and verging on Lombardy, New York and Madrid numbers where about 0.1% of those regions have died.

jesus_thats_gre

Blut2 wrote: »

Sweden now (data up to April 28th) has fewer deaths per million people than Ireland (and plenty of other countries). So much for all the doom & gloom types in this thread predicting an apocalypse there.

The more time that goes by the more vindicated the Swedish approach is being proven. They're achieving better results than Ireland, while only suffering a fraction of the economic damage.

As an advocate of the approach, would you mind sharing what Sweden have done to achieve this lower death rate than Ireland?

More specifically, what can we copy in order to improve our situation?

Del Griffith

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why are you comparing them to Ireland and not the neighbours they share a border with, i.e. Denmark, Finland & Norway?

Might it be because we're Irish, on an Irish message board, in Ireland? Could that be it?

IAMAMORON

wakka12 wrote: »

Wow thats shocking, Stockholm is only like 15-20% of Sweden's population. 1400 deaths in a city of 1.6 million is not good. In fact its really bad, and verging on Lombardy, New York and Madrid numbers where about 0.1% of those regions have died.

Population of the greater Stockholm area is closer to 2.6 million.

Blut2

@Wetasanotter you seem rather angry - and also appear to have completely misquoted me multiple times in that rather lengthy post to create strawmen for some reason. I'm sorry that you don't like the fact that Sweden now, officially has a lower death rate than Ireland - and has been proven more successful at fighting corona - but the statistics don't lie. You can get your citations for the death figures from multiple sources, they're all over google.

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

As an advocate of the approach, would you mind sharing what Sweden have done to achieve this lower death rate than Ireland?

More specifically, what can we copy in order to improve our situation?

Sure, this will outline the Swedish government response for you - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden#Government_response

In regards to what Ireland can learn from it, the key overall lesson would be that the full economic lockdown we're under has now been proven unnecessary. The Swedish approach of only fully quarantining those who need it (over 70s/those with underlying health conditions) and engaging in "low cost"/comparatively light non-mandatory measures for everyone else - Working From Home if possible etc - has been proven to be just as effective (if not more so, based on the deaths per capita) than Irelands. But its been far, far less economically, socially, and mentally damaging for the Swedish population. Its now without doubt the more logical model for a country.

Moving to the Swedish model would instantly improve our situation for the hundreds of thousands of people in Ireland now facing the prospect of unemployment or bankruptcy. And for the thousands of people facing mental problems due to the extended lockdown. And for the thousands of people not currently getting medical care for things like cancer. And for the hundreds of thousands of kids currently not in school. etc etc.

Jim Bob Scratcher

For all the criticism Sweden is getting ,lets be honest, eventually every country will go down the same route as them.

Del Griffith

“Once you get into a lockdown, it’s difficult to get out of it,” the country’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said. “How do you reopen? When?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

Breezin

Also from the nyt article: 'Sweden’s death rate of 22 per 100,000 people is the same as that of Ireland, which has earned accolades for its handling of the pandemic, and far better than in Britain or France.'

And we are destroying our country and they are not.

STB.

Del Griffith wrote: »

“Once you get into a lockdown, it’s difficult to get out of it,” the country’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said. “How do you reopen? When?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

Tegnell has no credibility. The headline Should have read, "Once you choose to embrace unknown herd immunity policies, it’s difficult to admit you were wrong".

He has led his country down a road that will be difficult to come back from. Sweden's deaths have went from 239 on 1 April to 2,355 deaths as of now. And they still refuse to do anything. Their only saving grace that the figures are not even higher is that 50% of Stockholm ignored him and self isolated or worked from home.

The death rate in Sweden has now risen significantly higher than many other countries in Europe, reaching more than 22 per 100,000 people. Denmark is 7 per 100,000 people. Norway and Finland less than 4 per 100k.

The Czech Republic has the same population as Sweden and have 223 deaths vs Sweden's 2,355. TEN times the death rate.

The difference in employing control measures over deploying daft policies of herd immunity are evident at this stage, and if you believe otherwise you are living in Cloud Cuckoo land.

When other countries are opening back up, Sweden will be shutting down. Eitherway, countless unnecessary deaths will have occurred in favour of economics.

wakka12

STB. wrote: »

Tegnell has no credibility. The headline Should have read, "Once you choose to embrace unknown herd immunity policies, it’s difficult to admit you were wrong".

He has led his country down a road that will be difficult to come back from. Sweden's deaths have went from 239 on 1 April to 2,355 deaths as of now. And they still refuse to do anything. Their only saving grace that the figures are not even higher is that 50% of Stockholm ignored him and self isolated or worked from home.

The death rate in Sweden has now risen significantly higher than many other countries in Europe, reaching more than 22 per 100,000 people. Denmark is 7 per 100,000 people. Norway and Finland less than 4 per 100k.

The Czech Republic has the same population as Sweden and have 223 deaths vs Sweden's 2,355. TEN times the death rate.

The difference in employing control measures over deploying daft policies of herd immunity are evident at this stage, and if you believe otherwise you are living in Cloud Cuckoo land.

When other countries are opening back up, Sweden will be shutting down. Eitherway, countless unnecessary deaths will have occurred in favour of economics.

I was initially very sceptical of the Swedish approach, but unfortunately all that criticism of Swedish death rates above can also be said of Ireland which has a higher death rate but has been in lock down for weeks. So where does that leave us

STB.

wakka12 wrote: »

I was initially very sceptical of the Swedish approach, but unfortunately all that criticism of Swedish death rates above can also be said of Ireland which has a higher death rate but has been in lock down for weeks. So where does that leave us

Many posts in this thread are advocating herd immunity as Sweden have adopted and purporting it as some form of magical approach to tackling the virus. The reality is its a live experiment played with the lives of real people and it is not working.

The most important comparisons are those among the Nordic Countries who have similar cultural, geographical and sociological attributes. The stark difference between those that did employ measures and those that did not is evident in their death rates.

Sweden - 2,355 deaths among 10.3 million people

Denmark - 427 deaths among 5.8 million people
Norway - 206 deaths among 5.4 million people
Finland - 193 deaths among 5.5 million people

Three times the deaths than other Nordic countries combined who have a population totaling 17mill vs 10 mill in Sweden. Astounding.

Sweden's National Board of Health and Welfare published a new set of data 2 days ago which suggest the real death toll from Covid19 could be 10 percent higher than Public Health Agency figures reported.