Sweden avoiding lockdown

cnocbui

STB. wrote: »

Tegnell has no credibility. The headline Should have read, "Once you choose to embrace unknown herd immunity policies, it’s difficult to admit you were wrong".

He has led his country down a road that will be difficult to come back from. Sweden's deaths have went from 239 on 1 April to 2,355 deaths as of now. And they still refuse to do anything. Their only saving grace that the figures are not even higher is that 50% of Stockholm ignored him and self isolated or worked from home.

The death rate in Sweden has now risen significantly higher than many other countries in Europe, reaching more than 22 per 100,000 people. Denmark is 7 per 100,000 people. Norway and Finland less than 4 per 100k.

The Czech Republic has the same population as Sweden and have 223 deaths vs Sweden's 2,355. TEN times the death rate.

The difference in employing control measures over deploying daft policies of herd immunity are evident at this stage, and if you believe otherwise you are living in Cloud Cuckoo land.

When other countries are opening back up, Sweden will be shutting down. Eitherway, countless unnecessary deaths will have occurred in favour of economics.

Suicide rates tend to go up as economic conditions decline, so it might just turn out to be a choice between the mechanism of death. It's not as simple as just SARS-2 death rates.

JeffKenna

STB. wrote: »

Many posts in this thread are advocating herd immunity as Sweden have adopted and purporting it as some form of magical approach to tackling the virus. The reality is its a live experiment played with the lives of real people and it is not working.

The most important comparisons are those among the Nordic Countries who have similar cultural, geographical and sociological attributes. The stark difference between those that did employ measures and those that did not is evident in their death rates.

Sweden - 2,355 deaths among 10.3 million people

Denmark - 427 deaths among 5.8 million people
Norway - 206 deaths among 5.4 million people
Finland - 193 deaths among 5.5 million people

So more than double the deaths than other Nordic countries who have a population totaling 17mill vs 10 mill in Sweden. Astounding.

Sweden's National Board of Health and Welfare published a new set of data 2 days ago which suggest the real death toll from Covid19 could be 10 percent higher than Public Health Agency figures reported.

Sweden is actually in Northern Europe according to the UN so you might want to add Ireland and the UK to your analysis.

cnocbui

STB. wrote: »

Many posts in this thread are advocating herd immunity as Sweden have adopted and purporting it as some form of magical approach to tackling the virus. The reality is its a live experiment played with the lives of real people and it is not working.

The most important comparisons are those among the Nordic Countries who have similar cultural, geographical and sociological attributes. The stark difference between those that did employ measures and those that did not is evident in their death rates.

Sweden - 2,355 deaths among 10.3 million people

Denmark - 427 deaths among 5.8 million people
Norway - 206 deaths among 5.4 million people
Finland - 193 deaths among 5.5 million people

Three times the deaths than other Nordic countries who have a population totaling 17mill vs 10 mill in Sweden. Astounding.

Sweden's National Board of Health and Welfare published a new set of data 2 days ago which suggest the real death toll from Covid19 could be 10 percent higher than Public Health Agency figures reported.

https://21stcenturywire.com/2020/04/17/uk-lockdown-could-cause-150000-avoidable-deaths/

it has been reported in British media that the UK’s response to the coronavirus crisis may cause 150,000 deaths that could have been avoided. This figure is much higher than current projections of deaths from COVID-19.

It just is not as simple as looking at the SARS-2 death rate.

seamus

STB. wrote: »

The most important comparisons are those among the Nordic Countries who have similar cultural, geographical and sociological attributes. The stark difference between those that did employ measures and those that did not is evident in their death rates.

And the same for us. Compare to our neighbours and the countries with whom we do the most travel. UK, by a country mile, Netherlands, France, US and to a lesser extent Belgium, Germany and Spain.

STB.

cnocbui wrote: »

Suicide rates tend to go up as economic conditions decline, so it might just turn out to be a choice between the mechanism of death. It's not as simple as just SARS-2 death rates.

Sorry that is just whataboutery cnocbui. They don't ravage and escalate on the scale of a pandemic.

JeffKenna wrote: »

Sweden is actually in Northern Europe according to the UN so you might want to add Ireland and the UK to your analysis.

Jeff I stated that the most important comparisons are those among the Nordic Countries themselves who have similar cultural, geographical and sociological attributes

I am not getting into an argument with people on this, I am just stating it as it is. The actual number of all deaths in Sweden in the first few weeks of April far exceed those going back 20 years.

Widdensushi

STB. wrote: »

Many posts in this thread are advocating herd immunity as Sweden have adopted and purporting it as some form of magical approach to tackling the virus. The reality is its a live experiment played with the lives of real people and it is not working.

The most important comparisons are those among the Nordic Countries who have similar cultural, geographical and sociological attributes. The stark difference between those that did employ measures and those that did not is evident in their death rates.

Sweden - 2,355 deaths among 10.3 million people

Denmark - 427 deaths among 5.8 million people
Norway - 206 deaths among 5.4 million people
Finland - 193 deaths among 5.5 million people

Three times the deaths than other Nordic countries combined who have a population totaling 17mill vs 10 mill in Sweden. Astounding.

Sweden's National Board of Health and Welfare published a new set of data 2 days ago which suggest the real death toll from Covid19 could be 10 percent higher than Public Health Agency figures reported.

I don't see why the most important comparisons should be with Nordic countries, compare Sweden with Belgium, Holland, uk,Italy, Spain, Ireland to name but a few and they are doing fine. It too early to say what the best strategy is. If there is a vaccine available soon you can say they allowed people to die unnecessarily. If it is a couple of years and other countries have opened up with crippled economies,no money to spend on Healthcare going forward and similar casualties then it will look good for Sweden. There is also the mental health issue, not just the short term suicides but the fact that there could be a serious issue with children as they get older who are stuck in unhealthy homes. Children who in normal circumstances could have managed healthy lives could be badly damaged by this experience.

STB.

seamus wrote: »

And the same for us. Compare to our neighbours and the countries with whom we do the most travel. UK, by a country mile, Netherlands, France, US and to a lesser extent Belgium, Germany and Spain.

This is a thread about "Sweden avoiding lockdown".

Many posts are advocating herd immunity. Many are denying this is what Sweden has adopted.

Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell in an interview with the BBC on Friday 24th April said that "his country would likely be in a better place to withstand a second wave of coronavirus because so many people in Sweden have now been exposed to the virus". (this goes against scientific evidence and WHO who have warned that there is 'No evidence' that recovered COVID-19 patients cannot be reinfected)

Asked whether Sweden's approach will help it withstand a possible second wave, Tegnell said he believed it would. "It will definitely affect the reproduction rate and slow down the spread," he said, but added that it wouldn't be enough to achieve "herd immunity."

"We know very little about the immunity of this disease, but most of the experts in Sweden agree that some kind of immunity we definitely will have because a lot of people that have been tested so far have produced antibodies ... We hope this will make it easier for us in the long run."

If that doesn't tell you the guessing games going on with people's lives, nothing will.

jaykay74

STB. wrote: »

This is a thread about "Sweden avoiding lockdown".

Many posts are advocating herd immunity. Many are denying this is what Sweden has adopted.

Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell in an interview with the BBC on Friday 24th April said that "his country would likely be in a better place to withstand a second wave of coronavirus because so many people in Sweden have now been exposed to the virus". (this goes against scientific evidence and WHO who have warned that there is 'No evidence' that recovered COVID-19 patients cannot be reinfected)

Asked whether Sweden's approach will help it withstand a possible second wave, Tegnell said he believed it would. "It will definitely affect the reproduction rate and slow down the spread," he said, but added that it wouldn't be enough to achieve "herd immunity."

"We know very little about the immunity of this disease, but most of the experts in Sweden agree that some kind of immunity we definitely will have because a lot of people that have been tested so far have produced antibodies ... We hope this will make it easier for us in the long run."

If that doesn't tell you the guessing games going on with people's lives, nothing will.

Whats your thoughts on the number of ICU beds available in Sweden ?

STB.

STB. wrote: »

Many posts in this thread are advocating herd immunity as Sweden have adopted and purporting it as some form of magical approach to tackling the virus. The reality is its a live experiment played with the lives of real people and it is not working.

The most important comparisons are those among the Nordic Countries who have similar cultural, geographical and sociological attributes. The stark difference between those that did employ measures and those that did not is evident in their death rates.

Sweden - 2,355 deaths among 10.3 million people

Denmark - 427 deaths among 5.8 million people
Norway - 206 deaths among 5.4 million people
Finland - 193 deaths among 5.5 million people

Three times the deaths than other Nordic countries combined who have a population totaling 17mill vs 10 mill in Sweden. Astounding.

Sweden's National Board of Health and Welfare published a new set of data 2 days ago which suggest the real death toll from Covid19 could be 10 percent higher than Public Health Agency figures reported.

Comparing death rates now is meaningless.

Do you think the virus has gone away and won't come back? In Europe at least, that is vanishingly unlikely.

So in the meantime whilst Sweden has allowed people to get the disease, Norway and Denmark have attempted to prevent that. So their numbers are lower.

So what happens now? Can you guess?

You will only be able to make comparisons like this way down the line.

The Swedes are not idiots. The argument that it's better for many or most of the population to have got it before winter comes around makes plenty of sense to me. We shall see.

STB.

jaykay74 wrote: »

Whats your thoughts on the number of ICU beds available in Sweden ?

Whats your thoughts on Sweden's failed herd immunity approach? Other Nordic countries now opening up business with lower death rates..

The only thing we have in common with Sweden is our failure in tackling nursing homes.

Deleted User wrote: »

The Swedes are not idiots. The argument that it's better for many or most of the population to have got it before winter comes around makes plenty of sense to me. We shall see.

It may make perfect sense to you, but sitting on your hands, and leaving stuff up to personal responsibility whilst abdicating your public health responsibilities in favour of scatterbrain and unproven herd immunity policies is completely reckless. Its economics over public health.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has already stated that there was currently “no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection.

You don't experiment on your citizens. You do everything to prevent it spreading to avoid needless deaths.

JoChervil

wakka12 wrote: »

I was initially very sceptical of the Swedish approach, but unfortunately all that criticism of Swedish death rates above can also be said of Ireland which has a higher death rate but has been in lock down for weeks. So where does that leave us

But Sweden death count is way underestimated because they count only death confirmed with tests. Those who died of Covid-19 without testing are not counted.

cnocbui

STB. wrote: »

Sorry that is just whataboutery cnocbui. They don't ravage and escalate on the scale of a pandemic.


Jeff I stated that the most important comparisons are those among the Nordic Countries themselves who have similar cultural, geographical and sociological attributes

I am not getting into an argument with people on this, I am just stating it as it is. The actual number of all deaths in Sweden in the first few weeks of April far exceed those going back 20 years.

Pure BS. It's not whataboutery as there is a a clear linkage.

Suicide Isn't A U.S. Problem. It's A Global Health Epidemic

I realize you want to shore up your thesis, but suicide and depression are very significant concerns to consider.

Sweden is not doing worse than the UK, Ireland, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands - why not berate them for the wrong approach?

If Sweden were in the top three, then their approach would be questionable, but they aren't, so their approach is so far no worse than Ireland's.

plodder

STB. wrote: »

The World Health Organization (WHO) has already stated that there was currently “no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection.

They have publicly and embarrassingly retracted that statement.

Roger_007

JoChervil wrote: »

But Sweden death count is way underestimated because they count only death confirmed with tests. Those who died of Covid-19 without testing are not counted.

I haven’t heard any reports of hospitals being overwhelmed or mass graves being dug, which was what was being predicted for Sweden a few weeks ago.
Of course there is always the possibility that there’s a giant cover-up.:eek:

STB.

cnocbui wrote: »

Sweden is not doing worse than the UK, Ireland, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands - why not berate them for the wrong approach?

If Sweden were in the top three, then their approach would be questionable, but they aren't, so their approach is so far no worse than Ireland's.

They have 3 times the deaths of all Nordic Countries combined.

The other Nordic Countries combined have 7 million more people yet a third of the deaths.

The difference ? the other Nordic Countries didn't adopt a herd immunity approach and sacrifice people for money.

Take your whataboutery and look over there elsewhere. The practices have been exposed for what they are.

STB.

plodder wrote: »

They have publicly and embarrassingly retracted that statement.

SOURCE!

plodder

STB. wrote: »

SOURCE!

Previous page on this thread, but let me provide the link anyway ..

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405

seamus

STB. wrote: »

If that doesn't tell you the guessing games going on with people's lives, nothing will.

Indeed, this is one of the major issues at the moment. Irish people in particular tend to assume that our own experts are uniquely incompetent, and that advice given by a foreign authority should be given more gravity because our politicians are nothing but half-educated gombeens, whereas foreigners; Europeans in particular are of a better class.

Thus seeing countries being less restrictive than our own is proof that we're overcooking it. On another thread is advice from the Swiss that adults can hug children under 10 because they pose no risk. There is no evidence for this.

All countries are playing guessing games to a certain extent, but some of them, like Sweden, are playing with much higher stakes than others. This needs to be constantly re-iterated; nobody has a crystal ball, there is no country who knows for certain how their response is going to turn out.

seamus

plodder wrote: »

Previous page on this thread, but let me provide the link anyway ..

That's not a retraction, it's a clarification.

The WHO, reasonably, expects that anyone infected will have some level of immunity from Covid.

However at present there is no evidence to support the belief that an immunity exists.

These two statements do not conflict with one another.

The lack of evidence is not because they can't find anyone who is immune, but because there is as yet no test for immunity that has been proven reliable.

It's very difficult to reduce immunology to short twitter soundbites, and worse when people start assuming absolutes from vague statements.

Charles Babbage

Sweden is experiencing deaths, they just aren' t attributing them to Covid19.

STB.

plodder wrote: »

Previous page on this thread, but let me provide the link anyway ..

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405

Yeah it was not an embarrassing retraction. It was a clarification on "immunity passports". Lets spell out what they said.

We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection.

What we don't yet know is the level of protection or how long it will last. We are working with scientists around the world to better understand the body's response to #COVID19 infection. So far, no studies have answered these important questions.

That has not stopped Sweden adopting a herd immunity strategy as if it is a proven fact. They are gambling on the unknown. Gambling with their own citizens lives.

STB.

STB. wrote: »

That has not stopped Sweden adopting a herd immunity strategy as if it is a proven fact. They are gambling on the unknown. Gambling with their own citizens lives.

It is all a gamble. There is no perfect course of action here.

Of course we should be looking at what happens in other countries and understanding what we can learn from them, but the idea that we can know that the approach we are taking is 'best' is silly.

Just a question - is Denmark re-opening schools a reckless gamble? Is Austria re-opening shops a reckless gamble? They are doing these things whilst the virus is still circulating after all. So it looks an awful lot like Europe is moving towards Sweden rather than the other way around.

BTW if there's no immunity bestowed by the illness there's none with a vaccine so I wouldn't crow about that too much unless you think hiding in our houses for the rest of our lives is a strategy.

plodder

seamus wrote: »

That's not a retraction, it's a clarification.
The WHO, reasonably, expects that anyone infected will have some level of immunity from Covid.

However at present there is no evidence to support the belief that an immunity exists.

These two statements do not conflict with one another.

The lack of evidence is not because they can't find anyone who is immune, but because there is as yet no test for immunity that has been proven reliable.

It's very difficult to reduce immunology to short twitter soundbites, and worse when people start assuming absolutes from vague statements.

It's a retraction. It's a bit like me saying "there is no evidence the sun will come up tomorrow" because I won't know for sure until it actually does.

Just like I would be ignoring evidence of previous days when the sun came up, the WHO were ignoring evidence from previous similar viruses. The level of confidence is vastly different in both of these examples, but the WHO were deliberately downplaying the confidence in the virus case.

The "clarified" statement acknowledges that it's likely there will be some immunity and is the kind of non-emotive factual statement they should be dealing in. Maybe they should stay off twitter if they can't be trusted to be measured and careful in their language.

plodder

plodder wrote: »

It's a retraction. It's a bit like me saying "there is no evidence the sun will come up tomorrow" because I won't know for sure until it actually does.

Just like I would be ignoring evidence of previous days when the sun came up, the WHO were ignoring evidence from previous similar viruses. The level of confidence is vastly different in both of these examples, but the WHO were deliberately downplaying the confidence in the virus case.

The "clarified" statement acknowledges that it's likely there will be some immunity and is the kind of non-emotive factual statement they should be dealing in. Maybe they should stay off twitter if they can't be trusted to be measured and careful in their language.

I'm certainly not interested in Trump-style WHO bashing but I agree about this, it is incredibly irresponsible the way they have repeatedly made statements implying that there is no immunity, only for people to have to read the small print to get the actual truth.

They should be clearly stating immunity is EXPECTED but we don't know the details yet and it can't be guaranteed. I think someone in there is a little bit in love with the big dramatic statement.

Widdensushi

STB. wrote: »

The World Health Organization (WHO) has already stated that there was currently “no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection.

You don't experiment on your citizens. You do everything to prevent it spreading to avoid needless deaths.

The other poster rightly pointed out that the above statement is not the case

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm certainly not interested in Trump-style WHO bashing but I agree about this, it is incredibly irresponsible the way they have repeatedly made statements implying that there is no immunity, only for people to have to read the small print to get the actual truth.

They should be clearly stating immunity is EXPECTED but we don't know the details yet and it can't be guaranteed. I think someone in there is a little bit in love with the big dramatic statement.

Yes but also as I pointed out on the megathread weeks ago, it would be extremely unlikely for a respiratory disease to not give immunity afterwards.

What was the justification for taking an extremely unlikely worst-case-scenario and using it to scare people? It should not have been on anyone's radar unless it turned out to be the case.

There are people who have lied every step of the way (and I don't mean politicians or the WHO, I mean commenters on social media sites like this one.)
They will use the sliver of deniability that the disease is technically 'novel' and punch a hole though it to tell more and more lies and dream up worse and worse scenarios. They'll continue to do this in May, June, July - they'll never stop.

Widdensushi

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Sweden is experiencing deaths, they just aren' t attributing them to Covid19.

why England and Wales?

Del Griffith

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Sweden is experiencing deaths, they just aren' t attributing them to Covid19.

This is definitely the best source for comparisons like that: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Comparing to last year alone doesnt give a full picture, as previous flu season of 2018 and further back gave high excess mortality also (although Covid19 has over taken them now).

Sweden is categorised as 'Very High Excess' as of this week. Which is lower than for example the UK, France and Spain which are 'Extreme High Excess'.

Ireland is actually down as no excess (I haven't doubled checked that) and NI as moderate excess.

The age breakdown is interesting too, younger mortality rates are actually negative, I guess due to confinement.

Breezin

STB. wrote: »

Yeah it was not an embarrassing retraction. It was a clarification on "immunity passports". Lets spell out what they said.

We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection.

What we don't yet know is the level of protection or how long it will last. We are working with scientists around the world to better understand the body's response to #COVID19 infection. So far, no studies have answered these important questions.

That has not stopped Sweden adopting a herd immunity strategy as if it is a proven fact. They are gambling on the unknown. Gambling with their own citizens lives.

For the love of Odin, are you being deliberately obtuse?

How many times do you have to be told. Sweden has repeatedly said that its strategy is not premised on herd immunity. Some have said it might be a byproduct, but that it is not the strategy.

From the NYT piece:

While there was some early talk in Sweden of achieving “herd immunity,” which would mean infecting at least 60 percent of the population, Mr. Tegnell denies that was ever the government’s policy.

“Basically we are trying to do the same thing that most countries are doing — slow down the spread as much as possible,” he said. “It’s just that we use slightly different tools than many other countries.”

That has been reported over and over, yet you repeatedly choose to ignore it and repeat the lie in your posts. Why should anyone listen to you?

biko

20302 cases
2462 dead
12.1% deaths of known cases

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa