Sweden avoiding lockdown

Poorside

cnocbui wrote: »

That is socially responsible. You are missing the whole point. There is no greater virus transmission mechanism involved in driving a hundred km to pick up a trampoline than driving 5 to pick up a loaf of bread and 2L of milk.

The Irish government is treating everyone like stupid children. Look at the ridiculous begrudgery they pulled at Easter, having road blocks to stop people traveling to their holiday homes. The road blocks were more of a potential virus vector than people driving to a holiday home and back and acting responsibly.

The Swedish government are saying act responsibly and do what you want within that guidelines that doesn't involve a risk of either transmitting or getting the virus.

And that's fine, if you could trust all Irish people to behave with the greater good in mind, they won't.
Driving to work this morning I could see a distinct increase in traffic, and I've seen pictures of queues of 200 people for Aldi for bloody garden furniture, from 3 different cities.
People are selfish, greedy and arrogant. I'm sick of this lockdown because I know the lengths my family have gone to and I see people acting like it's a long holiday, I'm angry today because idiots are keeping me from seeing some of my family for another 2 weeks.

Breezin

Poorside wrote: »

And that's fine, if you could trust all Irish people to behave with the greater good in mind, they won't.
Driving to work this morning I could see a distinct increase in traffic, and I've seen pictures of queues of 200 people for Aldi for bloody garden furniture, from 3 different cities.
People are selfish, greedy and arrogant. I'm sick of this lockdown because I know the lengths my family have gone to and I see people acting like it's a long holiday, I'm angry today because idiots are keeping me from seeing some of my family for another 2 weeks.

Queuing for garden furniture. The horror!

I see we're back to enthusiastic support for collective punishment. It's all our faults, so a nation of 'muppets' stays under house arrest getting preached at by the usual suspects and assorted masochists.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

The Swedish government are saying act responsibly and do what you want within that guidelines that doesn't involve a risk of either transmitting or getting the virus.

Please stop the nonsense.
Sweden were aiming for herd immunity which would require up to 70% of their population infected with the virus.

biko

21092 cases
2586 dead
12.3% deaths of known cases

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

charlie14

biko wrote: »

21092 cases
2586 dead
12.3% deaths of known cases

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

At 790 new confirmed cases, their 2nd.highest to date.
With all those historical cases added to their daily mortality tallies last week, this week by midweek they were expecting the numbers to drop significantly.

wakka12

Whats happening with Sweden's deaths? That Swedish poster was saying a few days ago that deaths in the country had peaked ages ago and that theyd be seeing low double digit figures for the foreseeable after the backlog had been cleared. Clearly has not been the case. If this keeps up Sweden will end up much worse than most countries

124 deaths today. Doesnt appear to be any sign of a peak having been reached

seamus

Outside of hospitals, there is a considerable lag in Sweden in reporting deaths up the chain. They're starting to rein in it in recent days, which is why they're seeing considerable jumps, but based on averages from previous years, it looks like there are still a lot of unreported deaths to come. The Swedish authorities last week suggested the difference was as much as 10%, but others are suggesting it could be twice that.

By contrast, we don't seem to have the same lag, and have no unreported difference from the average. So unless someone has shipping containers of dead bodies somewhere in Ireland, there's no reason to expect a considerable jump in death numbers.

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

Please stop the nonsense.
Sweden were aiming for herd immunity which would require up to 70% of their population infected with the virus.

A link to a Swedish official saying they are aiming for herd immunity, just so as to make clear it's not you who's shoveling the nonsense.

charlie14

seamus wrote: »

Outside of hospitals, there is a considerable lag in Sweden in reporting deaths up the chain. They're starting to rein in it in recent days, which is why they're seeing considerable jumps, but based on averages from previous years, it looks like there are still a lot of unreported deaths to come. The Swedish authorities last week suggested the difference was as much as 10%, but others are suggesting it could be twice that.

By contrast, we don't seem to have the same lag, and have no unreported difference from the average. So unless someone has shipping containers of dead bodies somewhere in Ireland, there's no reason to expect a considerable jump in death numbers.

Their National Board of Health and Welfare published data last week that suggested the real mortality figure from this virus was as much as 10% greater than those published by their Public Health Agency. This was due to the different criteria being use by both authorities.
As both are, I presume still using their own criteria, that would not explain these figures which are from the Public Health Agency.


As the Public Health Agency stated last week that by their criteria of classification their backlog was included in last weeks figures, then it would appears these are current figures covering the last few days.

yourdeadwright

Poorside wrote: »

And that's fine, if you could trust all Irish people to behave with the greater good in mind, they won't.
Driving to work this morning I could see a distinct increase in traffic, and I've seen pictures of queues of 200 people for Aldi for bloody garden furniture, from 3 different cities.
People are selfish, greedy and arrogant. I'm sick of this lockdown because I know the lengths my family have gone to and I see people acting like it's a long holiday, I'm angry today because idiots are keeping me from seeing some of my family for another 2 weeks.

Oh i do love irony ,

" People are selfish, greedy and arrogant"
"I'm sick of this lockdown because I know the lengths MY family have gone to "

Breezin

cnocbui wrote: »

A link to a Swedish official saying they are aiming for herd immunity, just so as to make clear it's not you who's shoveling the nonsense.

As opposed to this explicit denial (as previously posted) from Mr Tegnell.

Danno

Blut2 wrote: »

@Wetasanotter you seem rather angry - and also appear to have completely misquoted me multiple times in that rather lengthy post to create strawmen for some reason. I'm sorry that you don't like the fact that Sweden now, officially has a lower death rate than Ireland - and has been proven more successful at fighting corona - but the statistics don't lie. You can get your citations for the death figures from multiple sources, they're all over google.

You are at nothing engaging with that user. They have a rude, blunt and quite frankly condescending tone and comes across as a know-it-all. I'd fear to be in their company on a night out - a guaranteed row no doubt.

Danno

Poorside wrote: »

And that's fine, if you could trust all Irish people to behave with the greater good in mind, they won't.
Driving to work this morning I could see a distinct increase in traffic, and I've seen pictures of queues of 200 people for Aldi for bloody garden furniture, from 3 different cities.
People are selfish, greedy and arrogant. I'm sick of this lockdown because I know the lengths my family have gone to and I see people acting like it's a long holiday, I'm angry today because idiots are keeping me from seeing some of my family for another 2 weeks.

Driving by ~200 people at at least 50kmph and identifying everybody as having come from no less than three cities. :eek:

Have you the six numbers for tomorrow night's lotto too?

Seriously, what is the problem with people queuing outdoors at the recommended 2m apart.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

A link to a Swedish official saying they are aiming for herd immunity, just so as to make clear it's not you who's shoveling the nonsense.

Dr. Anders Tegnell CNBC Tuesday 21 April.
"In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm we have reached a plateau and we`re already seeing the effects of herd immunity and in a few weeks time we`ll see even more of the effects of that"


If it walks like a duck.......


Other than supposedly protecting the aged and vulnerable, which their stats show they failed to do as well as their own admission, If they were not trying for herd immunity what were the doing to prevent the spead of this virus. Social distancing where the couldn`t even agree on the distance ?

Poorside

Danno wrote: »

Driving by ~200 people at at least 50kmph and identifying everybody as having come from no less than three cities. :eek:

Have you the six numbers for tomorrow night's lotto too?

Seriously, what is the problem with people queuing outdoors at the recommended 2m apart.

Can you read at all, please try.
Actually I'll break it down for you
Driving to work I saw increased traffic
I have seen pictures of over 200 people in queues
These have come from 3 different cities.
Hard to understand?

And, these queues started at 6am in one case, hardly keeping within the miraculous 15 min window.

Poorside

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Oh i do love irony ,

" People are selfish, greedy and arrogant"
"I'm sick of this lockdown because I know the lengths MY family have gone to "

Yes, what's the problem with that? I know my family are doing all we can to keep ourselves and other safe, if you think that's arrogant you have a weird view on the world.

Poorside

Breezin wrote: »

Queuing for garden furniture. The horror!

I see we're back to enthusiastic support for collective punishment. It's all our faults, so a nation of 'muppets' stays under house arrest getting preached at by the usual suspects and assorted masochists.

Is Garden furniture an essential?

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

Dr. Anders Tegnell CNBC Tuesday 21 April.
"In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm we have reached a plateau and we`re already seeing the effects of herd immunity and in a few weeks time we`ll see even more of the effects of that"


If it walks like a duck.......


Other than supposedly protecting the aged and vulnerable, which their stats show they failed to do as well as their own admission, If they were not trying for herd immunity what were the doing to prevent the spead of this virus. Social distancing where the couldn`t even agree on the distance ?

Just to be clear. Herd immunity is a good thing. I'm sure even the most hawkish lockdowners can agree.

That doesn't mean it is the core of their strategy. They have said repeatedly that it isn't.

It's a bit more complex than the black and white of 'stay at home all you selfish muppets'. That maybe is why quite a few of the restriction enthusiasts here can't get their heads around it.

Breezin

Poorside wrote: »

Is Garden furniture an essential?

Possibly. Depending on one's circumstances and spatial needs.
Should we appoint a special commissar to adjudicate?

IAMAMORON

Poorside wrote: »

Can you read at all, please try.
Actually I'll break it down for you
Driving to work I saw increased traffic
I have seen pictures of over 200 people in queues
These have come from 3 different cities.
Hard to understand?

And, these queues started at 6am in one case, hardly keeping within the miraculous 15 min window.

I recommend Xanax.

You sound worse than Raymond Babbit.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

Just to be clear. Herd immunity is a good thing. I'm sure even the most hawkish lockdowners can agree.

That doesn't mean it is the core of their strategy. They have said repeatedly that it isn't.

It's a bit more complex than the black and white of 'stay at home all you selfish muppets'. That maybe is why quite a few of the restriction enthusiasts here can't get their heads around it.

For a start I am not a "hawkish lockdowner". Just someone who believes that slavishly following the Swedish strategy our health service would have been quickly over-run if we had adopted a policy that required 70% of our population to be infected based on a theory where their is little or no proof as too the level of immunity it would give.


Again, if it is not the core of their strategy, what is this "complex" strategy?

Social distancing ?
Protect the aged and vulnerable ?

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

For a start I am not a "hawkish lockdowner". Just someone who believes that slavishly following the Swedish strategy our health service would have been quickly over-run if we had adopted a policy that required 70% of our population to be infected based on a theory where their is little or no proof as too the level of immunity it would give.


Again, if it is not the core of their strategy, what is this "complex" strategy?

Social distancing ?
Protect the aged and vulnerable ?

Why don't you consult them directly? Have a read of their multifarious commentaries explaining their approach, now magically available to all thanks to the wonders of modern communication. I have posted at least two already, as have others, in this thread.

They are not claiming any certainties, like our lot, but as observed in this thread already, they have been more or less as successful as we have, while inflicting less wreckage on their society. Nor are they now living in terror of letting people live half-normal lives.

They have admitted that they didn't do right by the aged. Neither have we. Complex, and not nearly as satisfying as telling people it's simple.

cnocbui

It looks like the Swedish model may not lead to less economic damage than other strategies:

Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, gave two possible scenarios for the economic outlook in 2020, which it said “depend on how long the spread of infection continues and on how long the restrictions implemented to slow it down are in place.” Both possible economic outcomes are bleak.

In the first scenario (scenario A in the chart below), gross domestic product contracts by 6.9% in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6% in 2021. In a more negative prediction (scenario , GDP could contract by 9.7% and a recovery could be slower with the economy growing 1.7% in 2021.
Flourish logoA Flourish chart

In the first scenario, the Riksbank predicted unemployment could reach 8.8% in 2020, from 7.2% currently, and in the worst-case forecast could hit 10.1%.

“In both scenarios, production falls sharply to begin with, and more than during the financial crisis. Sharply falling oil and electricity prices will contribute to low inflation this year,” the Riksbank said. It predicts the inflation rate will stay at 0.6% in 2020, in both scenarios.

The growth projections are sobering for a country that looked to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus by not shutting down its economy like the rest of Europe. Lockdowns in Germany, Spain, Italy, France and the U.K., aimed at saving countless lives, have all hit their economies severely.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

Blut2

cnocbui wrote: »

It looks like the Swedish model may not lead to less economic damage than other strategies:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

Those figures are significantly less bad than those found in full lockdown countries. 8.8% unemployment in Sweden in 2020 from that quote for example, vs the current forecast of 22% in Ireland for 2020.

(and thats not including the people currently on the "temporary" COVID unemployment payment in Ireland - including those our unemployment rate is actually over 40%)

Thats a massive, massive difference to the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

Why don't you consult them directly? Have a read of their multifarious commentaries explaining their approach, now magically available to all thanks to the wonders of modern communication. I have posted at least two already, as have others, in this thread.

They are not claiming any certainties, like our lot, but as observed in this thread already, they have been more or less as successful as we have, while inflicting less wreckage on their society. Nor are they now living in terror of letting people live half-normal lives.

They have admitted that they didn't do right by the aged. Neither have we. Complex, and not nearly as satisfying as telling people it's simple.

In other words like myself you really do not know what this so called complex strategy is or how the hope to achieve it. Grand so.

As to their multifarious comments, it is difficult to find one where where they do not extol herd immunity. Over a month ago Tegrell conceded to the Svenska Dagbladet newspaper that herd immunity was *not contradictory with the government`s core strategy".


Where you got the idea that we were at some stage told or strategy was simple I have no idea.

What Username Guidelines

Blut2 wrote: »

Those figures are significantly less bad than those found in full lockdown countries. 8.8% unemployment in Sweden in 2020 from that quote for example, vs the current forecast of 22% in Ireland for 2020.

(and thats not including the people currently on the "temporary" COVID unemployment payment in Ireland - including those our unemployment rate is actually over 40%)

Thats a massive, massive difference to the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.

It may also be proof that social distancing measures alone, if abided by the majority, can be effective. Obviously not quite as effective as a lockdown, but it's still not exponential growth with thousands of cases per day.

Imagine taking on a similar stance here, with masks. Lots of people working from home, elderly cocooning. Issue is that we were scared into a lockdown (perhaps rightly so, who knows yet) so it may be hard to coax some out. Plenty of business owners ready to go but are the customers?

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

In other words like myself you really do not know what this so called complex strategy is or how the hope to achieve it. Grand so.

As to their multifarious comments, it is difficult to find one where where they do not extol herd immunity. Over a month ago Tegrell conceded to the Svenska Dagbladet newspaper that herd immunity was *not contradictory with the government`s core strategy".


Where you got the idea that we were at some stage told or strategy was simple I have no idea.

So you didn't read those articles I indicated. You can bring a horse to water...


By the way, herd immunity is indeed not contradictory with the Swedish strategy. That doesn't mean it is the strategy.

I've been trying to get that across, but, if you'll excuse the mixed metaphors, it seems you have your fingers in your ears to ward off infection.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

So you didn't read those articles I indicated. You can bring a horse to water...


By the way, herd immunity is indeed not contradictory with the Swedish strategy. That doesn't mean it is the strategy.

I've been trying to get that across, but, if you'll excuse the mixed metaphors, it seems you have your fingers in your ears to ward off infection.

If you will excuse me being equally blunt, you have no idea what this so called "complex strategy" is, and you are choosing to ignore that up until recently with the realisation that they were not going to achieve anything near the figures required for this herd immunity they are now downplaying it.
Up until that they were extolling it at every opportunity. Even to the extent of criticising Britain and Denmark for not sticking with it.

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

Dr. Anders Tegnell CNBC Tuesday 21 April.
"In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm we have reached a plateau and we`re already seeing the effects of herd immunity and in a few weeks time we`ll see even more of the effects of that"


If it walks like a duck.......


Other than supposedly protecting the aged and vulnerable, which their stats show they failed to do as well as their own admission, If they were not trying for herd immunity what were the doing to prevent the spead of this virus. Social distancing where the couldn`t even agree on the distance ?

If a weather presenter reports that parts of the country received 40mm of rain in a 2 hour period, leading to flooding in many areas, and that more rain was expected, does that make heavy rain and flooding a government objective?

Quack, quack.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

If a weather presenter reports that parts of the country received 40mm of rain in a 2 hour period, leading to flooding in many areas, and that more rain was expected, does that make heavy rain and flooding a government objective?

Quack, quack.

I have no idea where you are trying to go with that, but in such a scenario I would not think the governments objective should be to flood the rest of the country.