Sweden avoiding lockdown

wakka12

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Over 30% of Swedish population already have had the virus and have recovered. When that number is 60%, their government can officially announce that virus is no longer dangerous to the population and is dying out, encouraging all the population to go back to the offices etc. etc. without any requirement for a vaccine (that A - isnt developed, B - isnt going to be properly tested until 3 - 5 years from development and C - vaccines work 80% of the time at most), masks or awkward social distancing that is going to destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs as all the restaurants/bars/entertainment venues going to cut capacity by 50% and lay off 50% of the workforce.

Putting healthy people into quarantine is something that has never been done before, our government are doing something that has never been done before to fight something that hasn't been around for longer than 3 months. Its a very bad combination, and time will tell, and we will all be slating the overreaction for many years to come as 2008 has thought us - poverty/recession takes at least 5 years to turn around.

30% of the Swedish population have not had a virus. Tell me , how could New York state with a population of 20 million have a 15% infection rate and 25,000 deaths while Sweden with a population of 10 million has twice as high a rate of infection and 1/10th of the deaths? Its because its a load of crap, Sweden is nowehere near herd immunity, it's very unlikely that any more than 1-4% of the Swedish population have had the virus

wakka12

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am not comfortable with the concept that South Korea are the role model for dealing with the virus. It all looks too easy for them, especially considering how some European countries have struggled. I reckon they are massaging their figures at least. Japan are lying also. I find it difficult to believe them given their high population density and ageing population. If you add in the fact that they were trying to keep the Olympics on track back in January I reckon they are spoofing too.

I will add that I would accept that Asian countries may have been better equipped to tackle an outbreak given their proximity to China and their previous experiences with the Sars1 outbreak or Swine Flu or bird flu. I can stomach that, but given how small their numbers are after that I reckon their is something amiss. Culturally it could be the norm in Asia to put on your heaviest and best suit, even if you are sweating inside it. I don't honestly know for sure, but I am comfortable with my instincts. If the CCP are so happy to be so bare faced about the virus I can understand why Japan and South Korea are happy to give the fingers back.

Yeh it is surprising, Japan released reports just two weeks ago saying their healthcare system was on the brink of collpase because there were so many COVID cases appearing across the country. Still only reporting a few hundred cases and a few dozens deaths per day the last few days

charlie14

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am not comfortable with the concept that South Korea are the role model for dealing with the virus. It all looks too easy for them, especially considering how some European countries have struggled. I reckon they are massaging their figures at least. Japan are lying also. I find it difficult to believe them given their high population density and ageing population. If you add in the fact that they were trying to keep the Olympics on track back in January I reckon they are spoofing too.

I will add that I would accept that Asian countries may have been better equipped to tackle an outbreak given their proximity to China and their previous experiences with the Sars1 outbreak or Swine Flu or bird flu. I can stomach that, but given how small their numbers are after that I reckon their is something amiss. Culturally it could be the norm in Asia to put on your heaviest and best suit, even if you are sweating inside it. I don't honestly know for sure, but I am comfortable with my instincts. If the CCP are so happy to be so bare faced about the virus I can understand why Japan and South Korea are happy to give the fingers back.

That possibly may be the case for China, but if it is then they are not the only country doing it. There appears to be quite a few in the western world downplaying their numbers for mortality rates from the virus.
South Korea and Japan may also be to an extent, but if they are fairly open societies where I doubt any cover-up of mass mortality rates would go undetected.
One of the reasons I would be inclined to believe South Korea`s figures as relatively accurate, is that even from the low numbers of deaths there in 2015 due to the MERS virus the authorities got a high level of criticism from their populous and rejigs their health care system to respond faster and more efficiently should there be a another similar viral outbreak.

Ginger n Lemon

My first post on Boards.ie got so many replies, I am committed to responding to all of them. I think biggest question put forward is the 30%, the cases you are quoting are positive cases of people who had symptoms and went to the test centre. It is a known fact that at least 25% of people are asymptomatic.

There is an interview on youtube of Prof. Johan Giesecke who is the adviser to WHO, with over 30 years of experience dealing with virus research, he clearly outlines that there are millions more people who had coronavirus in Sweden and obviously other countries and have recovered and didnt even know they've had it. Think about it, only 3 known facts about this virus is that A - its highly infectious and B - its true mortality rate is in the region of 0.1 - 0.8% and C - unfortunately over 99% of deaths are people in old age with underlying conditions.

If it's highly infectious, and first case known to Chinese government that occurred in China was end of November, you really would be very mislead believing that Sweden's true coronavirus cases is 23k.

If you have doubts about mortality rate, remember that there are 8 billion people on the planet, known deaths as of this moment of people who contracted covid19 (underline the word contracted) and have unfortunately died is 244k, thats 0.003%.

wakka12

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

My first post on Boards.ie got so many replies, I am committed to responding to all of them. I think biggest question put forward is the 30%, the cases you are quoting are positive cases of people who had symptoms and went to the test centre. It is a known fact that at least 25% of people are asymptomatic.

There is an interview on youtube of Prof. Johan Giesecke who is the adviser to WHO, with over 30 years of experience dealing with virus research, he clearly outlines that there are millions more people who had coronavirus in Sweden and obviously other countries and have recovered and didnt even know they've had it. Think about it, only 3 known facts about this virus is that A - its highly infectious and B - its true mortality rate is in the region of 0.1 - 0.8% and C - unfortunately over 99% of deaths are people in old age with underlying conditions.

If it's highly infectious, and first case known to Chinese government that occurred in China was end of November, you really would be very mislead believing that Sweden's true coronavirus cases is 23k.

If you have doubts about mortality rate, remember that there are 8 billion people on the planet, known deaths as of this moment of people who contracted covid19 (underline the word contracted) and have unfortunately died is 244k, thats 0.003%.

Yep, thats why we are doing antibody testing. Have you read about the New York state antibody testing? It has revealed that despite the high number of asymptomatic cases, the level of infection in the community is lower than was initially estimated. It's only 20-25% in New York city, in the state it's only 4-5%. So Stockholm is almost definitely considerably lower than NYC level of infection, And Sweden overall almost definitely considerably lower than NY state overall

Also I think it is not representative to say that because theres only 240,000 deaths, it is tiny compared to the world population. This is from just a few weeks, and 85% of (official )deaths are in the EU and USA, which make up just 10% of the world population. In just 6-8 weeks in the EU and USA , 210,000 deaths is a huge number.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

My first post on Boards.ie got so many replies, I am committed to responding to all of them. I think biggest question put forward is the 30%, the cases you are quoting are positive cases of people who had symptoms and went to the test centre. It is a known fact that at least 25% of people are asymptomatic.

There is an interview on youtube of Prof. Johan Giesecke who is the adviser to WHO, with over 30 years of experience dealing with virus research, he clearly outlines that there are millions more people who had coronavirus in Sweden and obviously other countries and have recovered and didnt even know they've had it. Think about it, only 3 known facts about this virus is that A - its highly infectious and B - its true mortality rate is in the region of 0.1 - 0.8% and C - unfortunately over 99% of deaths are people in old age with underlying conditions.

If it's highly infectious, and first case known to Chinese government that occurred in China was end of November, you really would be very mislead believing that Sweden's true coronavirus cases is 23k.

If you have doubts about mortality rate, remember that there are 8 billion people on the planet, known deaths as of this moment of people who contracted covid19 (underline the word contracted) and have unfortunately died is 244k, thats 0.003%.

So in other words there is no evidence that 30% of the population of Sweden has been infected, It is based on the presumption of one professor whereas Sweden has, after revising their data put the number at 26% for the epicenter of their outbreak, Stockholm, which accounts for roughly 1/5th. of their population. With Stockholm being the epicenter then it stands to reason that the overall infection rate is lower than 26%

Even if nationally that number was 26%, if Sweden are claiming a Ro number less than 1, then that 60% infection rate you mentioned for herd immunity is a long way off.
That 26% for Stockholm was based on a mathematical programme. On actual blood test results, from 100 blood donors where only 11 showed antibodies present, and even though that report was later withdrawn ,it further suggests to me at least just how far off that 60% is.

Btw, you could underline the words known deaths as well as the word contacted as we really have no idea as to the true figure for known deaths from this virus.
Also Professor Johan Giesecke is not advising the WHO. He is Swedish and is at present an advisor to Anders Tegnell.

IAMAMORON

charlie14 wrote: »

That possibly may be the case for China, but if it is then they are not the only country doing it. There appears to be quite a few in the western world downplaying their numbers for mortality rates from the virus.
South Korea and Japan may also be to an extent, but if they are fairly open societies where I doubt any cover-up of mass mortality rates would go undetected.
One of the reasons I would be inclined to believe South Korea`s figures as relatively accurate, is that even from the low numbers of deaths there in 2015 due to the MERS virus the authorities got a high level of criticism from their populous and rejigs their health care system to respond faster and more efficiently should there be a another similar viral outbreak.

I think that people celebrate South Korea too much and without real evidence of it. Don't forget that their cousins in the north are a totalitarian dictatorship, the apple might not fall far from the tree. In saying all that I have done administrative business with Koreans and they are super efficient, so I am slightly torn on my opinion. But it does look too good to be true and I am confident that Japan have been burying it also( no pun intended sorry). Given the figures we see in the US and Europe I can't believe theirs.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

So in other words there is no evidence that 30% of the population of Sweden has been infected, It is based on the presumption of one professor whereas Sweden has, after revising their data put the number at 26% for the epicenter of their outbreak, Stockholm, which accounts for roughly 1/5th. of their population. With Stockholm being the epicenter then it stands to reason that the overall infection rate is lower than 26%

Even if nationally that number was 26%, if Sweden are claiming a Ro number less than 1, then that 60% infection rate you mentioned for herd immunity is a long way off.
That 26% for Stockholm was based on a mathematical programme. On actual blood test results, from 100 blood donors where only 11 showed antibodies present, and even though that report was later withdrawn ,it further suggests to me at least just how far off that 60% is.

Btw, you could underline the words known deaths as well as the word contacted as we really have no idea as to the true figure for known deaths from this virus.
Also Professor Johan Giesecke is not advising the WHO. He is Swedish and is at present an advisor to Anders Tegnell.

You are 100% correct. People with cancer qualify as having "underlying condition". RTE doesnt tell you this, it goes with the casual "underlying conditions".

"presumption of one professor" that's very good. Did you watch the interview entire 30 minutes? I am a bit worried how quickly you disregard professors, how can we converse about Sweden's coronavirus response and numbers if you dismiss Swedish professors in our conversation? The Swedish professor who advises state epidemiologist of Sweden.....

charlie14

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think that people celebrate South Korea too much and without real evidence of it. Don't forget that their cousins in the north are a totalitarian dictatorship, the apple might not fall far from the tree. In saying all that I have done administrative business with Koreans and they are super efficient, so I am slightly torn on my opinion. But it does look too good to be true and I am confident that Japan have been burying it also( no pun intended sorry). Given the figures we see in the US and Europe I can't believe theirs.

Bot of a stretch to make any comparison between South and North Korea when it comes to societal openness and media reporting imo.
I`m not saying their figures are 100% accurate, but unless they are storing bodies in refrigerated units without their relatives knowing they are dead, I don`t see where there figures are that far off as makes a difference.
They were also very quick to report that 222 who had contacted the virus and had recovered, on re-testing showed possible signs of being re-infected.
Perhaps I`m being overly naive, but that doesn`t sound to me like a country that is attempting to cover up their infections or deaths from this virus.

biko

Ginger n Lemon wrote:

Over 30% of Swedish population already have had the virus and have recovered

I had a google there but did not find anyone else saying this.
What's your source?

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

You are 100% correct. People with cancer qualify as having "underlying condition". RTE doesnt tell you this, it goes with the casual "underlying conditions".

"presumption of one professor" that's very good. Did you watch the interview entire 30 minutes? I am a bit worried how quickly you disregard professors, how can we converse about Sweden's coronavirus response and numbers if you dismiss Swedish professors in our conversation? The Swedish professor who advises state epidemiologist of Sweden.....

I didn`t mention cancer or underlying conditions so you may be confusing me with another poster.
That said cancer is one underlying condition of which we have 170,000 living with in this country as well as having over 13% of our population aged 65 or over.
Those two figures alone, regardless of all the other underlying conditions, is why I do not favour the Swedish system of dealing with this outbreak.

I listened to him over a week ago, (far as I recall he made a rather strange remark as regards South Korea, not that it matters), what matters in this context is that you were quoting this professor as a WHO adviser, when he is in fact now an advisor to the Swedish state epidemiologist and could be looked at in my opinion as someone with skin in the game when it comes to Sweden`s strategy.

wakka12

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

You are 100% correct. People with cancer qualify as having "underlying condition". RTE doesnt tell you this, it goes with the casual "underlying conditions".

"presumption of one professor" that's very good. Did you watch the interview entire 30 minutes? I am a bit worried how quickly you disregard professors, how can we converse about Sweden's coronavirus response and numbers if you dismiss Swedish professors in our conversation? The Swedish professor who advises state epidemiologist of Sweden.....

Professional qualifications does not mean you are always correct. Antibody testing in New York which constitutes actual proof in a real life situation has dismissed his opinion on how many Swedes may theoretically be infected as(very) incorrect

IAMAMORON

charlie14 wrote: »

Bot of a stretch to make any comparison between South and North Korea when it comes to societal openness and media reporting imo.
I`m not saying their figures are 100% accurate, but unless they are storing bodies in refrigerated units without their relatives knowing they are dead, I don`t see where there figures are that far off as makes a difference.
They were also very quick to report that 222 who had contacted the virus and had recovered, on re-testing showed possible signs of being re-infected.
Perhaps I`m being overly naive, but that doesn`t sound to me like a country that is attempting to cover up their infections or deaths from this virus.

So how come so few people have contacted the virus there and so few people have died?

Contrast their results with Italy, Spain, UK, US or Belgium? Even Germany if you like?

How come they have so few infections? There must be a reason or pattern for this at this stage?

For what it matters I can't tell you the answer either, but as someone who deals with stats and figure I can spot when I am reading off 2 very different hymn sheets. Even Germany are massaging their results, if you die of cardiac arrest after spending 6 days on a ventilator they are not saying your death is related to Covid19. They are also stating that Germans succumbing to pneumonia have not died of Covid19.

charlie14

IAMAMORON wrote: »

So how come so few people have contacted the virus there and so few people have died?

Contrast their results with Italy, Spain, UK, US or Belgium? Even Germany if you like?

How come they have so few infections? There must be a reason or pattern for this at this stage?

For what it matters I can't tell you the answer either, but as someone who deals with stats and figure I can spot when I am reading off 2 very different hymn sheets. Even Germany are massaging their results, if you die of cardiac arrest after spending 6 days on a ventilator they are not saying your death is related to Covid19. They are also stating that Germans succumbing to pneumonia have not died of Covid19.

I have no idea either other than perhaps from the public outrage over MERS in 2015 they were quicker to react at an early stage.They are also highly efficient technologically and appear to have be very efficient in using that along with high levels of testing in contact tracing.
They may like many others been under reporting attributing deaths to other causes, but that would not make a difference to their figures in relation to those other countries.
As I said they may be massaging figures, but with so many countries looking at how they achieved those rates, I would find it difficult to see how they would hope to hide multiples of cases or deaths.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

I didn`t mention cancer or underlying conditions so you may be confusing me with another poster.
That said cancer is one underlying condition of which we have 170,000 living with in this country as well as having over 13% of our population aged 65 or over.
Those two figures alone, regardless of all the other underlying conditions, is why I do not favour the Swedish system of dealing with this outbreak.

I listened to him over a week ago, (far as I recall he made a rather strange remark as regards South Korea, not that it matters), what matters in this context is that you were quoting this professor as a WHO adviser, when he is in fact now an advisor to the Swedish state epidemiologist and could be looked at in my opinion as someone with skin in the game when it comes to Sweden`s strategy.

Someone with skin in the game? The man is 70 years old. Do you really think he has something to gain here by misrepresenting the truth? This isnt exactly an up and coming 45 year old professor... This is a very poor angle to approach credibility of an individual.

also, PS, please see below and you can google this.

Members of the Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards (STAG-IH) Giesecke, Johan

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Someone with skin in the game? The man is 70 years old. Do you really think he has something to gain here by misrepresenting the truth? This isnt exactly an up and coming 45 year old professor... This is a very poor angle to approach credibility of an individual.

also, PS, please see below and you can google this.

Members of the Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards (STAG-IH) Giesecke, Johan

He is one of the senior advisors who with Anders Tegnell (something you failed to point out when giving his WHO credentials) decided to adopt this strategy. Of course he has skin in the game when it comes to a totally untested method of combating a viral pandemic as regards his reputation and credibility.

What truth is he representing.
Are you are getting this 30% infections for the Swedish population from that interview?
If you are then it is not even a figure Sweden has claimed for Stockholm. Let alone a national infection rate.

2u2me

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am not comfortable with the concept that South Korea are the role model for dealing with the virus.

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think that people celebrate South Korea too much and without real evidence of it. Don't forget that their cousins in the north are a totalitarian dictatorship, the apple might not fall far from the tree.

Not only do South Korea enjoy the fruits of capitalism; they also have a national sense of unity I'd say you wouldn't see in many countries.

Obviously this is because of that threat to the north. Can you imagine what it's like to live under this constant fear of annihilation?
I think they have one of the highest suicide rates in the world, especially for men; who still must complete mandatory draft.

This is how different South and North Korea are:

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

He is one of the senior advisors who with Anders Tegnell (something you failed to point out when giving his WHO credentials) decided to adopt this strategy. Of course he has skin in the game when it comes to a totally untested method of combating a viral pandemic as regards his reputation and credibility.

What truth is he representing.
Are you are getting this 30% infections for the Swedish population from that interview?
If you are then it is not even a figure Sweden has claimed for Stockholm. Let alone a national infection rate.

Is quarantining healthy people a tested method?

Please link 1 scientific, peer reviewed published study that says it is a tested and proven method to combat SOMETHING. Let alone a pandemic.

Bit cynical

There's been a lot of debate about whether Sweden would be able to sustain their light touch measures. It had been suggested that cases and deaths would continue to rise exponentially and that Sweden, like other countries, would then be forced to implement a lockdown.

However if we look at the graph, in particular the seven-day rolling average, it does appear that daily deaths have peaked and now falling. Of course there is a lag in the figures and the peak itself probably occurred about a week or more earlier.

On the basis of this, and assuming that the health system there is not being overrun (I don't think there have been reports of this), it does not look likely they will be introducing a lockdown.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Is quarantining healthy people a tested method?

Please link 1 scientific, peer reviewed published study that says it is a tested and proven method to combat SOMETHING. Let alone a pandemic.

For someone that does not answer questions asked you sure do as a lot.
Lockdown is a more tested strategy at this stage than the Swedish strategy.

Why would you expect a scientific peer review ?
Would it be by any chance because that professor`s views you favour mentions in that interview that the advise the British followed was not peer reviewed, but omitted to mention the model he favours has no scientific published peer review either ?

Ginger n Lemon

Bit cynical wrote: »

There's been a lot of debate about whether Sweden would be able to sustain their light touch measures. It had been suggested that cases and deaths would continue to rise exponentially and that Sweden, like other countries, would then be forced to implement a lockdown.

However if we look at the graph, in particular the seven-day rolling average, it does appear that daily deaths have peaked and now falling. Of course there is a lag in the figures and the peak itself probably occurred about a week or more earlier.

On the basis of this, and assuming that the health system there is not being overrun (I don't think there have been reports of this), it does not look likely they will be introducing a lockdown.

They don't need to introduce lockdown. Unfortunately they haven't protected their elderly and vulnerable, their virology experts have stated this. With regret. And people who were highly likely to die after contracting covid 19 because of their low immune system, underlying health conditions and age, have now died. Thats why the death curve is going down.

Ireland is guilty of this as well, unfortunately. But the government is also guilty of 20% unemployment, which is a big shame because that will cause more deaths down the line.

wakka12

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

They don't need to introduce lockdown. Unfortunately they haven't protected their elderly and vulnerable, their virology experts have stated this. With regret. And people who were highly likely to die after contracting covid 19 because of their low immune system, underlying health conditions and age, have now died. Thats why the death curve is going down.

Ireland is guilty of this as well, unfortunately. But the government is also guilty of 20% unemployment, which is a big shame because that will cause more deaths down the line.

Death curve is doing down because infection rate is going down. There remains hundreds of thousands of Swedish citizens at extremely high risk of dying if they catch covid. Almost exactly one million people over age 75 in Sweden. Hundreds of thousands of others have underlying health conditions

Maybe I'm reading your wrong but your post seriously comes off as though you think almost every person in Sweden who was likely to die if they caught covid has been killed by it already, and thats it, no more big deaths anymore because of that. I think many people dont realise that elderly and people with underlying conditions make up a huge minority of Europe's population, 20-25% of the population of Ireland for example, which is a relatively young country with good health.

Bit cynical

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

They don't need to introduce lockdown. Unfortunately they haven't protected their elderly and vulnerable, their virology experts have stated this. With regret. And people who were highly likely to die after contracting covid 19 because of their low immune system, underlying health conditions and age, have now died. Thats why the death curve is going down.

With regard to the elderly and vulnerable, I agree. They have had a problem in nursing homes as with Ireland. Even with a lockdown, if care homes are not properly managed then sadly residents will die as we have seen in Ireland.

Ginger n Lemon

wakka12 wrote: »

Death curve is doing down because infection rate is going down. There remains hundreds of thousands of Swedish citizens at extremely high risk of dying if they catch covid. Almost exactly one million people over age 75 in Sweden. Hundreds of thousands of others have underlying health conditions

Maybe I'm reading your wrong but your post seriously comes off as though you think almost every person in Sweden who was likely to die if they caught covid has been killed by it already, and thats it, no more big deaths anymore because of that. I think many people dont realise that elderly and people with underlying conditions make up a huge minority of Europe's population, 20-25% of the population of Ireland for example, which is a relatively young country with good health.

I agree 100% with everything you say. This is why, and this is something Swedish government realised, you need to protect and isolate and cocoon your elderly & most vulnerable.

You do not need to cocoon the entire country, or impose 2km, 5km, 20km travel limits, for healthy, strong individuals that a lot of people this country are. What we are doing here is causing 22% unemployment according to Minister for finance. Sweden has 10% unemployment as result of pandemic.

Hmmzis

There is something odd about this virus and the way people can spread it. If the Ro is indeed the now estimated 5 or even 6.7 as per one study and everyone is susceptible to it then Sweden should have been overrun. In an even worse way than Italy or Spain. Even if their people are doing all they can to distance and hygiene, it would be hard to believe they have their Re below 1. But apparently they have it below 1, odd.

We are missing something important, coud be more than just one thing.

From reading this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess

It sounds like the quarantine they emposed was deficient, but must have prevented faster spread. Otherwise, how could there be only 20% infected?
Th 69 Indonesian crew are another intersting point. One tested positive, all others were negative. How? Did they all happen to hate that one who tested positive, hence avoiding that person? Did they evacuate them in hazmat suits?

The US aircraft carrier story is similarly odd. First an explosion of cases and then at around 20% infections it ground to a halt. From a crew of almost 5000, about 1100 tested positive. All on the ship were tested, multiple times.

For something that's this contagious I would have expected much higher infection rates in contained environments. Easily 40-50% before countermeasuers, more if they're not effective. Especially on the the Roosevelt, it's far from being on a spacious luxury cruise liner. The crew are litteraly living on top of each other, no room for isolation. The whole crew should have got it by my thinking

What Username Guidelines

Hmmzis wrote: »

There is something odd about this virus and the way people can spread it. If the Ro is indeed the now estimated 5 or even 6.7 as per one study and everyone is susceptible to it then Sweden should have been overrun. In an even worse way than Italy or Spain. Even if their people are doing all they can to distance and hygiene, it would be hard to believe they have their Re below 1. But apparently they have it below 1, odd.

I’m thinking the same, unless it wasn’t circulating in Sweden when they started their social distancing? In Italy, Spain, etc, it was circulating and they were still having mass gatherings, protests, concerts, etc. so it spread uncontrollably. Maybe it just means that smaller social circles and no mass gatherings is more than enough to slow this down.

If it kept rising here at 33% from the start, the very basic maths says the entire population would have it by mid April. But obviously society isn’t lined up in a big row so there varying factors to slow it, such as how often susceptible people interact with each other. Keeping groups small and limited helps this. Lockdown is massively extreme form of this but obviously impacts the numbers. While people say Sweden have a high death rate, and you can’t judge til it’s over, it’s a pandemic that will impact a certain % of people no matter what a government does. The thing is to manage it in a way that those who have a chance of survival with medical help get access to that medical health.

While I think lockdown is extreme, it’s like a reset button, so you can then start opening things up and seeing what works and what doesn’t, albeit with a painfully long feedback loop. Maybe Sweden got it right without hitting reset. I do believe our government are being way too cautious with opening up, which leads to resent from the general public, which messes with your feedback results as you open.

Blut2

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I’m thinking the same, unless it wasn’t circulating in Sweden when they started their social distancing? In Italy, Spain, etc, it was circulating and they were still having mass gatherings, protests, concerts, etc. so it spread uncontrollably.

New reports suggest its been in Europe far, far longer than we initially thought:

https://actu17.fr/un-patient-etait-positif-au-coronavirus-le-27-decembre-en-france-annonce-le-professeur-yves-cohen/

December 27th in France in the above for example. That would make it highly unlikely that it wasn't circulating in Sweden by the time they started practicing social distancing almost 4 months later in March.

It would also suggest the virus is far less dangerous than we initially thought - if it was in Europe for 3 months before we even noticed...

charlie14

Hmmzis wrote: »

There is something odd about this virus and the way people can spread it. If the Ro is indeed the now estimated 5 or even 6.7 as per one study and everyone is susceptible to it then Sweden should have been overrun. In an even worse way than Italy or Spain. Even if their people are doing all they can to distance and hygiene, it would be hard to believe they have their Re below 1. But apparently they have it below 1, odd.

We are missing something important, coud be more than just one thing.

From reading this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess

It sounds like the quarantine they emposed was deficient, but must have prevented faster spread. Otherwise, how could there be only 20% infected?
Th 69 Indonesian crew are another intersting point. One tested positive, all others were negative. How? Did they all happen to hate that one who tested positive, hence avoiding that person? Did they evacuate them in hazmat suits?

The US aircraft carrier story is similarly odd. First an explosion of cases and then at around 20% infections it ground to a halt. From a crew of almost 5000, about 1100 tested positive. All on the ship were tested, multiple times.

For something that's this contagious I would have expected much higher infection rates in contained environments. Easily 40-50% before countermeasuers, more if they're not effective. Especially on the the Roosevelt, it's far from being on a spacious luxury cruise liner. The crew are litteraly living on top of each other, no room for isolation. The whole crew should have got it by my thinking

I have been wondering on this myself since I saw that Ro figure for Sweden being below 1.
Without getting into whether Sweden`s strategy was intended to achieve a spread of infections that would reach 60-70% for herd immunity, Anders Tegnell has said it would likely be a consequence of that strategy.

From that and a social distancing strategy that is, with the best will in the world, not great, in that different authorities have different ideas on the distance, groups up to 50 allowed, plus schools, bars and restaurants still operating as usual, it is difficult to see if this virus is spreading at rates we have seen up until now, how their Ro has dropped below 1.

wakka12

Blut2 wrote: »

New reports suggest its been in Europe far, far longer than we initially thought:

https://actu17.fr/un-patient-etait-positif-au-coronavirus-le-27-decembre-en-france-annonce-le-professeur-yves-cohen/

December 27th in France in the above for example. That would make it highly unlikely that it wasn't circulating in Sweden by the time they started practicing social distancing almost 4 months later in March.

It would also suggest the virus is far less dangerous than we initially thought - if it was in Europe for 3 months before we even noticed...

Well it may have been here , but it wasnt spreading. Who knows why. But antibody testing in New York has shown it is not widespread, even there it is only 20-25% of the population. In the state it was only 4-5%.

charlie14

Blut2 wrote: »

New reports suggest its been in Europe far, far longer than we initially thought:

https://actu17.fr/un-patient-etait-positif-au-coronavirus-le-27-decembre-en-france-annonce-le-professeur-yves-cohen/

December 27th in France in the above for example. That would make it highly unlikely that it wasn't circulating in Sweden by the time they started practicing social distancing almost 4 months later in March.

It would also suggest the virus is far less dangerous than we initially thought - if it was in Europe for 3 months before we even noticed...

That may have been the case, that it has been around longer than we initially though, but that would not explain the sudden rise of infections and deaths in such countries as Italy and Spain.