Sweden avoiding lockdown

Wibbs

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t know if that would fully explain it unless the Swede`s consume a lot of vitamin D supplements.
We may not be blessed with many long sunny days, but we are at least better than Sweden.

And Swedes also have vitamin D deficiencies in winter. LINK

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I appreciate that. It must be a co incidence that covid19 started in December, November really, and I happen to have gotten a very contagious flu in January.

Co incidentally also below

In an Instagram Live Story with Kat Kerkhofs, wife of Belgium and Napoli forward Dries Mertens, Lukaku said: “We had a week off in January. We came back and I swear 23 out of 25 players were sick. No joke.

“We played at home against Radja Nainggolan’s Cagliari and after 25 minutes one of our defenders had to leave the field.

“He couldn’t go on and almost passed out. Everyone was coughing and having a fever.

I would not say that it was a coincidence. It was the flu season.

If this virus was present here as early as Nov/Dec. then with how virulent it has been shown to be, how is it that the first detected case here was not until the 3rd,March and the 11th.March before we had the first fatality.
It just doesn`t add up.

Wibbs

Hmmzis wrote: »

Not necessarily, one other thing that comes to mind is not everyone might be susceptible of catching it. I don't know how that would even be possible biologically though. We all have ACE2 receptors as far as I know.

We do, but maybe there are differences in how they work depending on genetics and environment? Case in point smokers have more ACE2 receptors and have compromised lungs, compromised cardiovascular systems, lower blood oxygen levels, more systemic inflammation, more likely to clot and a host of others health issues. They also touch their face with their hands more times than non smokers, so they should be dropping like flies with this virus well ahead of the non smoking population, which is what you would expect. Yet the stats from numerous countries now show they're getting it less than non smokers and getting it less severely. Like four times less likely which is beyond statistically important. They only start to outstrip non smokers if they end up on ventilators which is no surprise as they're more likely to have comorbidities.

Various hypothesises are being considered. One being their ACE2 receptors act differently to non smokers by the action of nicotine or that nicotine blocks the receptors that the virus uses to attach, or that because the virus attacks and kills these receptors having more "going spare" is protective. You might have similar going on in different genetic populations?

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I know I had it in January, purely because I've passed it onto 2 other relatives. I have never ever passed on any flu or any other sickness to anyone before, to my knowledge. I am well over 25 years of age.

Well that's science that is.

Unless there is a contagious flu running rampant out there along with covid hand in hand?

In November, December and January there was. Flu season was still in force and then it started to ease off, then came Covid19. Similar was seen in Italy. They had a bit of an upswing in flu and flu related pneumonia in late 2019, early 2020, but it wasn't overwhelming their hospitals. Then there was a brief few weeks were that eased off and then they were hit like a ton of bricks and the sick and dying and dead went off the scale.

Breezin

sydthebeat

Breezin wrote: »

bit of a pointless table as boths cases and deaths depend on testing levels....

currently we are testing over 3 times as much as sweden per head of population.

wakka12

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I know I had it in January, purely because I've passed it onto 2 other relatives. I have never ever passed on any flu or any other sickness to anyone before, to my knowledge. I am well over 25 years of age.

Unless there is a contagious flu running rampant out there along with covid hand in hand?

Yes there was a contagious flu going around in January, same as every January. Your age/healthy has no influence on how many people you pass it on to. Never having passed on the flu to anyone before also has no bearing on whether you will pass flu onto people in future. Again, you'd think there was no such thing as respiratory illness before covid came along the way some people are going on. 2% of all deaths annually(every single year before covid existed) are from communicable respiratory illnesses and hospitalise millions of people worldwide, just fyi..

Breezin

sydthebeat wrote: »

bit of a pointless table as boths cases and deaths depend on testing levels....

currently we are testing over 3 times as much as sweden per head of population.

I wouldn't be so eager to write off those outcomes based on partial qualifications. They make sobering reading when you consider the divergence in cost to each society.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

Practically the same amount of confirmed cases as here, but double the mortality.

PhoenixParker

I keep looking at the number who've been in intensive care: 1572 at the moment. Over 4 times Ireland's number, so approx double per head of population. That's not squaring with the comparative rates of death for me.

charlie14

I read over the weekend that Anders Tegnell in an interview with the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet that he was "not convinced at all" that avoiding lockdown was the correct strategy, and that it was important " to be humble all the time because you may have to change".
Today I see that the authorities are asking people not to invite friends to dinner or barbeque parties. That would appear to be very much at variance on the previous advice on numbers under 50.
Are Sweden perhaps having a rethink of their strategy ?

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

Practically the same amount of confirmed cases as here, but double the mortality.

Sweden has 2 times more population than Ireland. Mortality rate per 1 million is 277 Sweden, 261 Ireland.

Double the population, double the mortality. ?

Seweryn

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Adding in January and February, when there was no Covid19, is misleading, especially as some years had significant flu in January.

Does that mean that flu was... more deadly than Mr C.?

Sure, there was C. in January and February, just not many tests were carried out.

Anyway, I am not saying that we should ignore Mr C. But I just don't see the panic in real world numbers to be honest. And what is really misleading here is tagging it with the name pandemic.

Ginger n Lemon

Seweryn wrote: »

Does that mean that flu was... more deadly than Mr C.?

Sure, there was C. in January and February, just not many tests were carried out.

Anyway, I am not saying that we should ignore Mr C. But I just don't see the panic in real world numbers to be honest. And what is really misleading here is tagging it with the name pandemic.

Its more commonly known as "deadly disease" actually. People are not willing to step a foot outside their door to avoid it. They either want 100% safe, a vaccine or just wait it out until it goes away.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Sweden has 2 times more population than Ireland. Mortality rate per 1 million is 277 Sweden, 261 Ireland.

Double the population, double the mortality. ?

I am aware that Sweden has twice the population of Ireland, and it was not the mortality rate I was referring too
It was that according to their figures they have the same number of confirmed cases as Ireland yet double the mortalities.

Drumpot

Bit cynical wrote: »

John Campbell has suggested that vitamin D may play a role in either preventing infection or fighting it once infected. Those with darker skins don't produce as much naturally from the sun.


Those in lower socio-economic bands will also have poorer diets and may also lack vitamin D from food.

Dr John is great. Been taking VIT C,D and zinc since I saw a video of his early Feb.

Seweryn

charlie14 wrote: »

We may not be blessed with many long sunny days, but we are at least better than Sweden.

Are you joking? They have more sunny days than Ireland. And most of their population lives rather down the South.

Cianos

For those who are saying it's the same as a normal flu, what'd be your views be on previous years' flu mortality figures compared to what Ireland is currently experiencing.

Here's an article from early 2018 saying the death toll from the 2017-2018 flu season surpassed 100.

https://www.thejournal.ie/february-flu-deaths-3867350-Feb2018

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Sweden has 2 times more population than Ireland. Mortality rate per 1 million is 277 Sweden, 261 Ireland.

Double the population, double the mortality. ?

Sweden has double the population of Finland.
Finland has 240 deaths.
Far better to compare like with like.

wakka12

Seweryn wrote: »

Does that mean that flu was... more deadly than Mr C.?

Sure, there was C. in January and February, just not many tests were carried out.

Anyway, I am not saying that we should ignore Mr C. But I just don't see the panic in real world numbers to be honest. And what is really misleading here is tagging it with the name pandemic.

Many tests were carried out. Not lots, but there was enough that the odd covid positive would have popped up if it was around.

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

I read over the weekend that Anders Tegnell in an interview with the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet that he was "not convinced at all" that avoiding lockdown was the correct strategy, and that it was important " to be humble all the time because you may have to change".?

Honest and open. It's a pity we couldn't have the same approach on our strategy.

Ginger n Lemon

bubblypop wrote: »

Sweden has double the population of Finland.
Finland has 240 deaths.
Far better to compare like with like.

How can we compare if its still ongoing?

Its not the comparisons we need to draw... if we draw comparisons between New Zealand that has same population as Ireland, 20 deaths vs 1300 deaths then there is something extremely wrong, and whatever we are doing is clearly a disaster and isnt working?

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

Does that mean that flu was... more deadly than Mr C.?

Sure, there was C. in January and February, just not many tests were carried out.

Anyway, I am not saying that we should ignore Mr C. But I just don't see the panic in real world numbers to be honest. And what is really misleading here is tagging it with the name pandemic.

The W.H.O. definition of a pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease where most people do not have immunity.
I think your Mr C ticks those boxes.

sydthebeat

Breezin wrote: »

I wouldn't be so eager to write off those outcomes based on partial qualifications. They make sobering reading when you consider the divergence in cost to each society.

id be extremely quick to write off those outcomes as you've presented them as they are based on unequal baseline standards. Until the standard of testing, which informs the cases and death statistics, is equal, the no comparison is useful.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

Honest and open. It's a pity we couldn't have the same approach on our strategy.

I think our authorities have been honest and open, and from the latest opinion poll I`ve seen the vast majority have no problem with our strategy.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

How can we compare if its still ongoing?

Its not the comparisons we need to draw... if we draw comparisons between New Zealand that has same population as Ireland, 20 deaths vs 1300 deaths then there is something extremely wrong, and whatever we are doing is clearly a disaster and isnt working?

Do you actually realise what New Zealand`s strategy was?

When they had only 6 confirmed cases they imposed one of the world`s strictest lockdowns.
If you want to compare Ireland to New Zealand then are you saying our lockdown wasn`t imposed early enough and strict enough ?

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

I think our authorities have been honest and open, and from the latest opinion poll I`ve seen the vast majority have no problem with our strategy.

If majority had no issues with our strategy why would Leo refuse to take questions from reporters immediately after his May 1 announcement? Surely those questions would be praises of great work? Why run away from that good stuff?

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

If majority had no issues with our strategy why would Leo refuse to take questions from reporters immediately after his May 1 announcement? Surely those questions would be praises of great work? Why run away from that good stuff?

If I was looking to determine if the majority favoured our strategy I would be more inclined to look at opinion polls than look to reporters trying to get their name under a newspaper headline.

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

Are you joking? They have more sunny days than Ireland. And most of their population lives rather down the South.

Doesn`t seem to be doing a lot for them. From a post earlier half of them are deficient in Vitamin D.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

If I was looking to determine if the majority favoured our strategy I would be more inclined to look at opinion polls than look to reporters trying to get their name under a newspaper headline.

The polls? Popularity? Strategy? 1300 people have died because of negligence of this government. On what planet does New Zealand, same population as Ireland, has 20 residents die and Ireland has 65 times higher mortality?

Idk what polls you are looking at, but reality polls would show the public have great interest in seeing mr Vardkar move on to the opposition bench or play an assistant to M Martin, asap.

Seweryn

charlie14 wrote: »

The W.H.O. definition of a pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease where most people do not have immunity.
I think your Mr C ticks those boxes.

OK, but 80% of people infected (which is most) show no symptoms or have mild symptoms. So how the "do not have immunity" apply here?