Sweden avoiding lockdown

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

The polls? Popularity? Strategy? 1300 people have died because of negligence of this government. On what planet does New Zealand, same population as Ireland, has 20 residents die and Ireland has 65 times higher mortality?

Idk what polls you are looking at, but reality polls would show the public have great interest in seeing mr Vardkar move on to the opposition bench or play an assistant to M Martin, asap.

You've ignored a poster who pointed out that New Zealand went into lockdown incredibly early on. Hence such low numbers. FG are currently the most popular party in Ireland, that's what current polling indicates. Also all parties would have taken lockdown measures.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

The polls? Popularity? Strategy? 1300 people have died because of negligence of this government. On what planet does New Zealand, same population as Ireland, has 20 residents die and Ireland has 65 times higher mortality?

Idk what polls you are looking at, but reality polls would show the public have great interest in seeing mr Vardkar move on to the opposition bench or play an assistant to M Martin, asap.

On your admiration of New Zealand`s strategy, I have already addressed that but you may have missed it.

New Zealand when just 6 cases were confirmed, imposed one of the
world`s`strictest lockdowns. From that admiration of New Zealand`s strategy and your criticism of Ireland`s, then it appears you believe Ireland`s strategy should have been an earlier and stricter lockdown ?

Seweryn

charlie14 wrote: »

Doesn`t seem to be doing a lot for them. From a post earlier half of them are deficient in Vitamin D.

Half of them? What about us here? If they are deficient, so are we.
I though I am the healthiest person I know, but last year I was "accidentally" tested for vitamin D in the early August while I was on holidays in central Europe and spending hours outside every day (here and there).
My vitamin D was on the floor, so I would expect most people may as well be deficient.

Large bottle small glass

Seweryn wrote: »

My vitamin D was on the floor, so I would expect most people may as well be deficient.

Two links below on Vitamin D.

For optimum health you would want to look at your other fat soluble vitamins intake ie A & K.

A complicated subject.

https://chrismasterjohnphd.com/lite-videos/2017/05/16/tell-difference-vitamin-d-calcium-deficiencies

https://chriskresser.com/vitamin-d-more-is-not-better/

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

OK, but 80% of people infected (which is most) show no symptoms or have mild symptoms. So how the "do not have immunity" apply here?

The W.H.O. definition of a pandemic that I posted does not say "do not have immunity" it says "most do not have immunity".
Academic really as with it being a new disease I don`t see how anyone would realistically have immunity before getting infected.

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

Half of them? What about us here? If they are deficient, so are we.
I though I am the healthiest person I know, but last year I was "accidentally" tested for vitamin D in the early August while I was on holidays in central Europe and spending hours outside every day (here and there).
My vitamin D was on the floor, so I would expect most people may as well be deficient.

They may very well be.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t know if that would fully explain it unless the Swede`s consume a lot of vitamin D supplements.
We may not be blessed with many long sunny days, but we are at least better than Sweden.

Any one factor is not going to explain everything and Swedes, like any other population, may well be low in the vitamin in winter, but the suggestion was that vitamin D may be a factor in why some groups within Sweden may be affected by the virus more than others.

Del Griffith

Cianos wrote: »

For those who are saying it's the same as a normal flu, what'd be your views be on previous years' flu mortality figures compared to what Ireland is currently experiencing.

Here's an article from early 2018 saying the death toll from the 2017-2018 flu season surpassed 100.

https://www.thejournal.ie/february-flu-deaths-3867350-Feb2018

There's a vaccine for flu, protecting the vulnerable, not to mention a whole lot of immunity.

This is comparable to a nasty flu to which there was no immunity and is no vaccine.

If your healthy youre very very very likely to be fine. If your very old or otherwise very seriously compromised it can be deadly.

10000maniacs

Wibbs wrote: »

This is turning out to be a really bloody weird virus alright. Sweden should be swamped, whereas Italy who've been in hard lockdown for months are only seeing a drop off recently in deaths and they were hit very badly and nearly overwhelmed. Spain not much better. The UK have been hit very badly too. New York ditto. I mean if you look at any seasonal flu that does the annual world tour, rates and peaks and troughs of infection and hospitalisations are very similar around the western world. Death rates too. This dose on the other hand seems to vary wildly all over the place.

It's all about big clusters. 2 weeks after those 20,000 people came back from Cheltenham and likewise that Italian match at Anfield, big clusters started appearing in Dublin. By the time anybody started getting symptoms, the virus was rampant in Dublin. Meanwhile in New Zealand and Sweden, the authorities were much more strict at the borders.

Del Griffith

Del Griffith wrote: »

There's a vaccine for flu, protecting the vulnerable, not to mention a whole lot of immunity.

This is comparable to a nasty flu to which there was no immunity and is no vaccine.

If your healthy youre very very very likely to be fine. If your very old or otherwise very seriously compromised it can be deadly.

The fatality rate of the flu is about 0.1%. Covid is estimated to be between 0.5% to 0.8%. It's also far more contagious. It's viewed to be far worse than the flu.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

I dont understand why everyone thinks they have COVID though just because they had symptoms in Jan/Dec? Like flu is literally similar symptoms, flu can be debilitating and dangerous, its far more likely you and and every other person posting similar on boards just had flu, because we know for a fact that was circulating widely in December and January..as it does every year..so it is the most likely cause of illness, by a mile

1. I had the flu once in my life before and it was nothing like this.
2. The symptoms were exactly as for Covid19 and not those normally subscribed to flu.

2. I got it far worse than a younger person that likely got it off me.



Okay, numbers 1 and 2 are subjective, but 3 has been highlighted as unusual, and not flu like.



There's now a recorded case in France for December after a re-diagnosis. No one was looking for/expecting Covid in Ireland in December. Statistics can be flawed or misconstrued. In this very thread we have Swedish claims that don't seem plausible and Occams razor would suggest that officials are lying.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

On your admiration of New Zealand`s strategy, I have already addressed that but you may have missed it.

New Zealand when just 6 cases were confirmed, imposed one of the
world`s`strictest lockdowns. From that admiration of New Zealand`s strategy and your criticism of Ireland`s, then it appears you believe Ireland`s strategy should have been an earlier and stricter lockdown ?

Absolutely friend. Its better to have 2 months of PAIN. Than 5 months of "if deaths are low enough, next phase could begin".

We didnt actually do anything right. We closed our borders too late. WE had no temperature checks in the airports and kept letting sick people in for MONTHS. And now we have 1300 dead, and you are asking me if i would prefer an earlier and stricter lockdown? Absolutely friend.

Look at New Zealand now, they can roam free. While we will be staying in semi lockdown for months and months and we both know the minute 10 new cases are reported after phase 3 begins, we are back in lockdown with Leo & Co. But thats alright, FG are the most popular party in the polls, they r doing a top job.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Absolutely friend. Its better to have 2 months of PAIN. Than 5 months of "if deaths are low enough, next phase could begin".

We didnt actually do anything right. We closed our borders too late. WE had no temperature checks in the airports and kept letting sick people in for MONTHS. And now we have 1300 dead, and you are asking me if i would prefer an earlier and stricter lockdown? Absolutely friend.

Look at New Zealand now, they can roam free. While we will be staying in semi lockdown for months and months and we both know the minute 10 new cases are reported after phase 3 begins, we are back in lockdown with Leo & Co. But thats alright, FG are the most popular party in the polls, they r doing a top job.

New Zealanders are not roaming free. Far from it. They introduced one of the strictest 4 phase lockdowns on the planet and have only just moved to phase 3 when new cases had dropped to practically zero.
You are suggesting that New Zealand have said "That`s it folks, everything back to how it was and if more cases occur we will ignore them" which is frankly rubbish.


I do not know what the whole political rant is about. Far as I can see no political party has a problem with how this crisis has been handled.


We can all bitch and complain with hindsight, but the reality is we are where we are and there is no time machine. So as someone who appears to disagree with what the strategy should be going forward, what do you propose we should do ?

Breezin

Good summary from the WSJ*. I see they've picked up on description of Sweden as 'the new normal' by Michael Ryan of the WHO.

"If we are to reach a new normal, in many ways Sweden represents a future model... If we are to get back to a society in which we don't have lockdowns, then society may need to adapt for a medium or potentially a longer period of time."

This is a realistic approach, acknowledging that the virus isn't going away anytime soon, so we need to look at options for a sustainable approach, i.e. a smart policy as opposed to the hammer.

*FirePaywalled on PC but I can get in on phone.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

New Zealanders are not roaming free. Far from it. They introduced one of the strictest 4 phase lockdowns on the planet and have only just moved to phase 3 when new cases had dropped to practically zero.
You are suggesting that New Zealand have said "That`s it folks, everything back to how it was and if more cases occur we will ignore them" which is frankly rubbish.


I do not know what the whole political rant is about. Far as I can see no political party has a problem with how this crisis has been handled.


We can all bitch and complain with hindsight, but the reality is we are where we are and there is no time machine. So as someone who appears to disagree with what the strategy should be going forward, what do you propose we should do ?

There is hindsight. And then there are government officials who get 100 000 + euros per year for having 90% inaccurate estimates. And you are basically saying, well, you know, no one couldve predicted so its fine.

Reminds me of imperial college model predicting 65 000 Swine flu deaths in UK, UK ended up with 392 deaths. Swine Flue pandemic they called it. Stay indoors or you ll die they said.

Wibbs

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

We didnt actually do anything right. We closed our borders too late. WE had no temperature checks in the airports and kept letting sick people in for MONTHS. And now we have 1300 dead, and you are asking me if i would prefer an earlier and stricter lockdown? Absolutely friend.

Comparing Ireland to NZ is largely pointless. Two very different environments. They're not an international transport hub for starters. They don't share a border(though that has been used too long as an excuse here IMHO) and they couldn't be further away from other busy international hubs. Plus they have a much lower population density than Ireland and Ireland is the lowest in Europe on that score.

Did we do anything right? I would say yes. They shut down the schools, pubs and restaurants etc pretty quickly and got the hospitals in order ready for what was coming pretty well too. However I would agree with you regarding our border control. It was about as porous as a teabag. And yep we had no health checks at what border control we had for too damned long. Testing was and in many ways remains a farce of delay and contact tracing was amateur. That's before the mixed messages from various "experts". Never mind the care home debacle. The lockdown wasn't exactly strict, or it varied through the nation and the Gardai were without powers to enforce it for a fortnight.

Our aforementioned lower population density made a big difference IMHO. If we had been packed more tightly in high rise apartments like much of Europe we'd have had far higher numbers. We squandered that advantage in many ways. If we had followed what Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, the Czechs did we should have far fewer infections and deaths.

Compared to the latter; instead of Ireland's over 1300 deaths the Czechs have 252. If we adjust that for them having double our population we should be in the region of around 120 dead, not ten times that. On that basis we fucked up and killed too damned many by our inaction. Never mind that they're already starting to open up their country, even cinemas are about to reopen with restrictions. And of course, just like the other nations above they made public mask wearing mandatory. Our crowd are still on the fence about that and have been for so long the people will likely not accept that now. Oh and the Czechs share four borders, had an influx of tourists from Italian skiing holidays and football matches, had very similar initial rates of infection and deaths, but after effective management when they pulled their finger out they rapidly slowed their spread and causality numbers.

I love this country. It's generally a very safe and very easygoing place to live. However the flip side of that is the same be grand vibe almost inevitably means that any government/civil service endeavour results in mismanagement, massive overspend and massive delays, so it's no surprise to me that we're seeing similar in this crisis. That it has gone smoothly enough is more of a shock, but the numbers of our dead are anything but smooth. With our advantages we should be among the lowest in infection and death rates, but we're not.

Wibbs

charlie14 wrote: »

We can all bitch and complain with hindsight, but the reality is we are where we are and there is no time machine. So as someone who appears to disagree with what the strategy should be going forward, what do you propose we should do ?

I agree on the political angle. None of the parties would have done any better, some would have done worse. They're mostly cheeks of the same arse and they would have to have gone through the HSE anyway.

Going forward? We should do what others who have done better have been doing for months and even eejits interwebs experts have been saying in this forum for the same length of time. Sack up and pull our fingers out. Tighten the borders. Mandatory 14 day quarantine, none of this advisory bollocks. Same for those already here who get a positive test. Major fines for breaking that quarantine. Mandatory masks in all indoor public spaces. If you don't wear one you don't get in. Aim to have testing giving results in days not weeks. Widen testing criteria. Include possible nodes like supermarkets and shops. Proper contact tracing. Let all that run for a month and see. Then staggered reopening. We should have been doing all that a month ago, but we didn't and those that did don't have nearly as many dead as we do, but we could do it now. Or piss the next few months away with some openings, then lockdowns as cases go up.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Any one factor is not going to explain everything and Swedes, like any other population, may well be low in the vitamin in winter, but the suggestion was that vitamin D may be a factor in why some groups within Sweden may be affected by the virus more than others.

Not disputing that Vitamin D may be a factor. If it is then it may be a factor if their large immigrant population is being the hardest hit after the aged.

charlie14

Wibbs wrote: »

I agree on the political angle. None of the parties would have done any better, some would have done worse. They're mostly cheeks of the same arse and they would have to have gone through the HSE anyway.

Going forward? We should do what others who have done better have been doing for months and even eejits interwebs experts have been saying in this forum for the same length of time. Sack up and pull our fingers out. Tighten the borders. Mandatory 14 day quarantine, none of this advisory bollocks. Same for those already here who get a positive test. Major fines for breaking that quarantine. Mandatory masks in all indoor public spaces. If you don't wear one you don't get in. Aim to have testing giving results in days not weeks. Widen testing criteria. Include possible nodes like supermarkets and shops. Proper contact tracing. Let all that run for a month and see. Then staggered reopening. We should have been doing all that a month ago, but we didn't and those that did don't have nearly as many dead as we do, but we could do it now. Or piss the next few months away with some openings, then lockdowns as cases go up.

Totally agree. Especially on tightening the borders. I would not see it as coincidental that An Garda Síochána not presently having the powers to impose the same penalties on cars traveling from Northern Ireland is unrelated to the rise of cases in Monaghan,Louth and Cavan

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

There is hindsight. And then there are government officials who get 100 000 + euros per year for having 90% inaccurate estimates. And you are basically saying, well, you know, no one couldve predicted so its fine.

Reminds me of imperial college model predicting 65 000 Swine flu deaths in UK, UK ended up with 392 deaths. Swine Flue pandemic they called it. Stay indoors or you ll die they said.

I did not say we got it 100% correct or anywhere near it.
What I said is that we now are where we are. That whinging and complaining about what we got wrong, politicians, civil servants or past mathematical prediction models is not going to improve the situation or save one single life.

My question was where do you believe we should go from where we are now ?

biko

23216 cases
2854 dead
12.3% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

biko

As long as Sweden are not the worst in Europe I have a feeling they will call their strategy a success, and not even pretend to notice that their numbers are twice as bad as their Nordic neighbours, combined..

I really hope for their old folks' sake their gamble pays off.

Drumpot

biko wrote: »

As long as Sweden are not the worst in Europe I have a feeling they will call their strategy a success, and not even pretend to notice that their numbers are twice as bad as their Nordic neighbours, combined..

I really hope for their old folks' sake their gamble pays off.

I hope it works out for them, I hope even Trump fumbles his way into making things less severe for USA. But there is a part of me that worries about the ramifications of certain countries success's being used as Propaganda.

Swedens approach was a massive gamble regardless of its outcome. To call it a raging success is ignoring the fact that what works in one country may not work in another for numerous reasons. You see uninformed people pointing at Sweden and New Zealand without even factoring in anything else. You might aswell say "well Antartica didnt get it too bad".......

In terms of Trump grasping onto his "Well i closed off flights to China" (that was random luck that worked out, his response to the virus for the next few months showed he didnt think it was that serious), why its dangerous if whatever he does works out, is because he doesnt give a flying f**k about the health of anybody in that country. His actions and moronic statements have proven that time and time again. For a man like this to be able to look like hes done things well (hes a disaster but great at deflecting attention away from his regular mistakes) is bad because most things that work out are either luck or some other power/person/authorities doing things right in spite of him.

Sweden's approach was a massive gamble that may work out but regardless I would rather a cautious approach that most countries took. It bought us time to learn more about the virus and how it might impact us. Its a shame that many people lack the capacity to objectively assess Swedens approach, all they see is a "success" and thats where their thinking stops on the topic. Thats a good insight into why nothing ever changes politically , people arent arsed challanging themselves or their views and only look for the quick solutions or information that confirms what they want to believe.

Breezin

Remember, Sweden pop. = 10.2m. We have the same rate of deaths.

Now for the numbers/ ex post facto dance as people try to rationalise out of that, and the terrible reality that they have achieved it at much less societal and individual cost.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

I did not say we got it 100% correct or anywhere near it.
What I said is that we now are where we are. That whinging and complaining about what we got wrong, politicians, civil servants or past mathematical prediction models is not going to improve the situation or save one single life.

My question was where do you believe we should go from where we are now ?

I believe we should combine phase 4 & 5 together. I believe we should open businesses based on capacity not sector. I believe we should start educating the public of an idea that we may just get coronavirus regardless what restrictions or lifting of restrictions we implement, and if they have chest pain or some other health issue they should go to GP/hospital ASAP and not be scared of covid. (this will save lives, not sitting at home)

And most importantly, given that this is a new disease and that our governments experience with pandemics is zero, we should look at other countries with similar size to us and population density and follow them if what they are doing is working.

Currently we just sit at home and got to wait until 20th of July to get a haircut. But at the same time Denmark has had barbers opened since 21st of April, so we have 2 weeks worth of facts and data. Has Denmark seen 10 000 + get infected over the last 2 weeks ? no. Has Denmark seen 1000 + deaths over the last 2 weeks? no. And there are 10 + countries like Denmark. This is factual data btw, not estimates or models.

PhoenixParker

Breezin wrote: »

Remember, Sweden pop. = 10.2m. We have the same rate of deaths.

Now for the numbers/ ex post facto dance as people try to rationalise out of that, and the terrible reality that they have achieved it at much less societal and individual cost.

Theyve had 1604 admitted to intensive care, 30-40 in the last day.
Ireland has had 364 with numbers in single digits most days in the last 2 weeks.

That's not tallying with Sweden's death rate or their outlook for me.

wakka12

Breezin wrote: »

Remember, Sweden pop. = 10.2m. We have the same rate of deaths.

Now for the numbers/ ex post facto dance as people try to rationalise out of that, and the terrible reality that they have achieved it at much less societal and individual cost.

Sweden will very quickly outstrip our death rate. They are consistently reporting up to and over 100 deaths on week days with no peak in sight. Ireland's deaths are trending steeply downwards. Sweden will end up with far higher deaths very soon, without a doubt.

But, there lies the question of whether they will simply have a higher death rate in the short term, front loading their deaths, while we may end up with the same number at the end of the pandemic after several waves. Ireland may not suffer any further waves however, they could be suppressed. And seeing as Swedish economy is not doing nay better than Europe, then it would undoubtedly turn out that their policy is the inferior one.

Breezin

wakka12 wrote: »

Sweden will very quickly outstrip our death rate. They are consistently reporting up to and over 100 deaths on week days with no peak in sight. Ireland's deaths are trending steeply downwards. Sweden will end up with far higher deaths very soon, without a doubt.

But, there lies the question of whether they will simply have a higher death rate in the short term, front loading their deaths, while we may end up with the same number at the end of the pandemic after several waves. Ireland may not suffer any further waves however, they could be suppressed. And seeing as Swedish economy is not doing nay better than Europe, then it would undoubtedly turn out that their policy is the inferior one.

So how long do we tough it out?

Cupatae

Breezin wrote: »

So how long do we tough it out?

As long as it takes, we have committed to it now.. to stop half way would be far far worse.

Breezin

Cupatae wrote: »

As long as it takes, we have committed to it now.. to stop half way would be far far worse.

So we wait for a vaccine?