Sweden avoiding lockdown

Ginger n Lemon

wakka12 wrote: »

The largest community antibody testing to date which was in New York has determined a mortality rate of 0.8%. Which is considerably higher

California study has showed 0.12-0.2% death rate. German study has shown 0.36% but actual virologist said its more in the region of 0.24-0.26%.

It varies population to population, unfortunately something that isnt in mainstream media is that a lot of people struggling with covid are obese. New york would have its fair share of obese unfortunately.

UK is another country with obesity problem.

However, even with 0.8%, the measures being implemented currently are completely disproportionate.

Mike3287

wakka12 wrote: »

The largest community antibody testing to date which was in New York has determined a mortality rate of 0.8%. Which is considerably higher

Everyone and his dog seems to infected in NYC

Will take a while to get a grasp on actual infection rate there

0.8% could be right though, might be different region to region as said above

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

You make it sound as if hospitals are refusing to treat anyone who is not infected or showing symptoms. That is not the case. Neither is visiting your doctor by appointment or a doctor visiting you in an emergency.


If covid19 is out of control in a country then there may be no other option than the Swedish approach, but far as I recall from a video interview with one of Tegnell`s top advisors post here some time ago, when asked about the situation in Britain he appeared to be of the belief it was not a good idea. Personally, I favor attempting to control the spread rather than have it running out of control, and as he appeared to believe,then being left with no other options.



No idea where Sweden is on obesity, but Scandinavian countries live a much healthier lifestyle than we do far as I know, so I imagine their obesity levels are much lower than ours.

You clearly didn't see Prime Time last night. A man waiting on a cataract operation despite paying health insurance for 50 years has been put to the back of a public queue. There is no such thing as private consultants now, they are all public, dealing with public queues. And yes consultations have gone down dramatically because of the lockdown.

Is it right that young people's lives should be put at risk for an illness that primarily affects the over 80 category in this country? Those over 80s have had long lives. But if a young woman dies of cervical cancer or a young man of testicular cancer with their entire lives ahead of them because of a lockdown, this is unforgiveable. And there is no doubt many will because cancer doesn't go into lockdown.

charlie14

wakka12 wrote: »

The largest community antibody testing to date which was in New York has determined a mortality rate of 0.8%. Which is considerably higher

In which case we would be looking at 40,000 deaths from Covid19 alone, in a country were deaths last year from all other causes were 32,000.


But no need to fear Covid19 it seems!

wakka12

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

California study has showed 0.12-0.2% death rate. German study has shown 0.36% but actual virologist said its more in the region of 0.24-0.26%.

It varies population to population, unfortunately something that isnt in mainstream media is that a lot of people struggling with covid are obese. New york would have its fair share of obese unfortunately.

UK is another country with obesity problem.

However, even with 0.8%, the measures being implemented currently are completely disproportionate.

The california study was not valid, candidates were self selected and so highly skewed towards those who believed that they had had COVID already. The figure would be so skewed by that that the study is practically useless

Yes the German study is another valid study but sample size is 1/4 the size of the New York one. Indeed it likely does vary from population to population, by how much we dont know. And you want policies changed drastically and immediately based on this very important unknown factor.

Ireland obesity rate isnt that great compared to New York, it is one of the slimmer states. NY obesity rate 27.6%, Ireland 23%

But yes I agree they are currently disproportionate even with 0.8%

growleaves

As I've been saying for seven weeks, mortality rates out of NYC, Lombardy, Madrid aren't going to be representative of the whole world.

Reason:

More people are dying in NYC, Lombardy etc. than the rest of the world.

This basic error is why so many boardsies predicted death rates of 1-7% and one guy even claimed 21%.

niallo27

charlie14 wrote: »

I did, and as another poster already pointed out there is a corona virus for cattle. Pharmaceutical companies follow the money like all businesses.It made it financially worth while to develop a vaccine for cattle so you can be assured this corona virus will get their full attention unlike other recent viruses.

When representing statistics as percentages it can be easy to disregard the actual figures. As your German scientist said it is always best to err on the side of caution, so if we go with your 0.5% that we should not fear.That 0.5% would result in 25,000 deaths in Ireland from Covid19.


The total deaths in Ireland last year prior to Covid19 were 32,000. 0.65%

Genuine question, how may of the 32k do you think would die anyway even if they had not contracted the virus.

wakka12

niallo27 wrote: »

Genuine question, how may of the 32k do you think would die anyway even if they had not contracted the virus.

14%
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-as-major-study-finds-most-elderly-victims-would-not-have-died-otherwise-11980675

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You clearly didn't see Prime Time last night. A man waiting on a cataract operation despite paying health insurance for 50 years has been put to the back of a public queue. There is no such thing as private consultants now, they are all public, dealing with public queues. And yes consultations have gone down dramatically because of the lockdown.

Is it right that young people's lives should be put at risk for an illness that primarily affects the over 80 category in this country? Those over 80s have had long lives. But if a young woman dies of cervical cancer or a young man of testicular cancer with their entire lives ahead of them because of a lockdown, this is unforgiveable. And there is no doubt many will because cancer doesn't go into lockdown.

I was not saying it was easy for everyone, but we have been crying out in this country for a one tier health system, so perhaps that will be the new normal.
It is very easy to simplify this virus as the young versus the 80s+ in terms of vulnerability, but you know better than that. If you do not then I have listed some of the most vulnerable categories and the numbers in a recent post.

Ginger n Lemon

niallo27 wrote: »

Genuine question, how may of the 32k do you think would die anyway even if they had not contracted the virus.

Well the road crashes account for about 500 deaths per year or 300. Suicides probably 100 - 300.

Murders maybe 50 - 100.

Feels like 90%+ of others are dying in accordance to life expectancy?

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

In which case we would be looking at 40,000 deaths from Covid19 alone, in a country were deaths last year from all other causes were 32,000.


But no need to fear Covid19 it seems!

We completely missed the boat in late February/early March to limit deaths to a NZ/Finland/Taiwan or even Portugal type situation.

Because of that, there will be a large number of deaths regardless of what you do, lockdown or no lockdown.

We could lockdown for 10 years and deaths in nursing homes would be almost exactly the same as with no lockdown, because all it takes is one infected person to infect an entire nursing home, especially if you have very poor infection controls.

If a patient gets infected in a hospital and is then sent to a nursing home, they infect everyone there.

The solution is to use intelligence to solve this problem. Patients should not be put in a nursing home without a negative test result. Staff should be tested often and should be isolated from the community as much as possible.

Shutting everything down is a dumb lazymans approach favoured by our government because they are too lazy to come up with a plan. Unless they can copy someone else's plan they are not interested.

charlie14

growleaves wrote: »

As I've been saying for seven weeks, mortality rates out of NYC, Lombardy, Madrid aren't going to be representative of the whole world.

Reason:

More people are dying in NYC, Lombardy etc. than the rest of the world.

This basic error is why so many boardsies predicted death rates of 1-7% and one guy even claimed 21%.

Some here have even predicted 0.1%.

The simple answer is we do not know. What we do know is that when health services get overrun the percentage goes up.

Kermit.de.frog

Another 87 more deaths for Sweden, will move ahead of the Netherlands tomorrow for deaths per million.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We completely missed the boat in late February/early March to limit deaths to a NZ/Finland/Taiwan or even Portugal type situation.

Because of that, there will be a large number of deaths regardless of what you do, lockdown or no lockdown.

We could lockdown for 10 years and deaths in nursing homes would be almost exactly the same as with no lockdown, because all it takes is one infected person to infect an entire nursing home, especially if you have very poor infection controls.

If a patient gets infected in a hospital and is then sent to a nursing home, they infect everyone there.

The solution is to use intelligence to solve this problem. Patients should not be put in a nursing home without a negative test result. Staff should be tested often and should be isolated from the community as much as possible.

Shutting everything down is a dumb lazymans approach favoured by our government because they are too lazy to come up with a plan. Unless they can copy someone else's plan they are not interested.

With an infection rate of 99% as one poster here suggested we could reach, (and without a lockdown and at least attempting to get transmissions under control is a distinct possibility), then exactly the same for all those vulnerable will be the case as your hospital/nursing home scenario.

Keyzer

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Shutting everything down is a dumb lazymans approach favoured by our government because they are too lazy to come up with a plan. Unless they can copy someone else's plan they are not interested.

Shutting everything down is what almost every other country in the western civilized world and beyond did. Had we not done that, it doesn't bear thinking what would have happened - hospitals in chaos, higher death rates etc. It was the only option and I believe the government made the right call.

We do have a plan - albeit a slightly unambitious plan - to get out of this. Its publicly available to read.

The problem with this situation is, no matter what the government do or don't do, everyone will shít on them regardless. Ease restrictions to early, which might lead to another cycle of infections and ultimately deaths, and they are labelled a shambles of a government putting lives at risk. Ease restrictions slowly, people label them useless and incompetent.

People need realise the restrictions were put in place for one reason and one reason only, to save lives. As a nation, we (most of us anyway) should be proud of what we've done over the last number of weeks to support achieving this goal.

Breezin

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Another 87 more deaths for Sweden, will move ahead of the Netherlands tomorrow for deaths per million.

Same as us so. And, actually, that's a turn downwards in their curve.

Hmmzis

The very best we can try to do until a miracle drug or vaccine comes around is to do our best to not get infected and not infect others around us, to the best our abilities. If with some collection of the measures we can get our unemployment down below the 20% marker, we should be able to limp it out till the drug or vaccine arrives.

The real hard tasks is to find a set of measures that allow us to do that without keeling over the healthcare system and having nursing homes decimated. The lockdown we have doesn't do that, so we have to find a different way.

wakka12

Breezin wrote: »

Same as us so. And, actually, that's a turn downwards in their curve.

It is much higher than us. Their death figures the last 3 days have been 2x/3x higher than ours per capita

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

Same as us so. And, actually, that's a turn downwards in their curve.

New case are back up close to their highest.

biko

23918 cases
2941 dead
12.3% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

jibber5000

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Theyve had 1604 admitted to intensive care, 30-40 in the last day.
Ireland has had 364 with numbers in single digits most days in the last 2 weeks.

That's not tallying with Sweden's death rate or their outlook for me.

Our ICU figures were massively skewed.

In Italy for example the vast majority of those who died were admitted to ICU.

We decided to limit the amount of patient's who would be suitable for ICU. In effect the vast majority of patients admitted with Covid were immediately made for ward based management. Hence the extraordinary low numbers of deaths in ICU here (approx 60 at this stage.)

Going by the numbers admitted to ICU is a really poor comparison to make.

Mike3287

Looking more and more like Sweden had the right idea, no hiding from the virus

Coming out now in France that many athletes in the Wuhan games were sick with covid systems

https://www.lepoint.fr/sante/coronavirus-des-athletes-francais-auraient-ete-contamines-a-wuhan-des-octobre-05-05-2020-2374320_40.php#

So the Military Games conspiracy was true this whole time?

Breezin

wakka12 wrote: »

It is much higher than us. Their death figures the last 3 days have been 2x/3x higher than ours per capita

That is too short a term for any reasonable assessment.
They are at 2,854 total today; we are at 1,339. That is proportionally the same, meaning we have inflicted massive damage on our society with no gain.

wakka12

Breezin wrote: »

That is too short a term for any reasonable assessment.
They are at 2,854 total today; we are at 1,339. That is proportionally the same, meaning we have inflicted massive damage on our society with no gain.

Sweden's economy has been badly damaged as well, you know? No winners here

PhoenixParker

jibber5000 wrote: »

Our ICU figures were massively skewed.

In Italy for example the vast majority of those who died were admitted to ICU.

We decided to limit the amount of patient's who would be suitable for ICU. In effect the vast majority of patients admitted with Covid were immediately made for ward based management. Hence the extraordinary low numbers of deaths in ICU here (approx 60 at this stage.)

Going by the numbers admitted to ICU is a really poor comparison to make.

Source for any of that?

Widdensushi

wakka12 wrote: »

Sweden's economy has been badly damaged as well, you know? No winners here

not compared to ours bars,restaurants, businesses are still open in Sweden

Ginger n Lemon

Hmmzis wrote: »

The very best we can try to do until a miracle drug or vaccine comes around is to do our best to not get infected and not infect others around us, to the best our abilities. If with some collection of the measures we can get our unemployment down below the 20% marker, we should be able to limp it out till the drug or vaccine arrives.

The real hard tasks is to find a set of measures that allow us to do that without keeling over the healthcare system and having nursing homes decimated. The lockdown we have doesn't do that, so we have to find a different way.

I am afraid as has been discussed earlier here, human race has not developed any vaccines against any human corona viruses in our history. So thinking covid will be different because Bill Gates says so is wishful thinking.

Any drug developed isnt going to prevent people from getting ill. Only way to proceed is to let healthy individuals contract it, recover from it and develop antibodies and immunity. You should ofcourse protect your elderly, but at some stage you really have to ask if elderly people at 85, 86, 87 want to wait 2 - 3 years in isolation or awkward social distancing without hugging their grandchildren?

Swedish model eliminates a lot of complications and intricacies and allows citizens to live life as they wish. Of course they recommend people to protect themselves but by no means do they impose house arrests/ separate people from each other. (and wont need to in the future)

wakka12

Widdensushi wrote: »

not compared to ours bars,restaurants, businesses are still open in Sweden

And nobody is in them, they are failing. Do you think our economy would be doing better if we opened up all our businesses and they didnt make any money because nobody is leaving their home? When the lockdown is over, people will have a lot of excess money because of covid payments. Those business owners in Sweden are just operating a business making no money, and because of that are not being assisted finanically by the government
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-sweden-retail/swedish-apparel-sales-tumble-even-as-stores-spared-coronavirus-lockdown-idUSL5N2BX1EK

niallo27

wakka12 wrote: »

14%
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-as-major-study-finds-most-elderly-victims-would-not-have-died-otherwise-11980675

Thought it would be higher myself.

wakka12

niallo27 wrote: »

Thought it would be higher myself.

I did too, I thought it would be around 30% or even 50% tbh given all the nursing home deaths