Sweden avoiding lockdown

shaveAbullock

Vinnie222 wrote: »

With only 26k affected in Sweden, if they was a 2nd wave, surely they will be in the same boat as other European countries ?

The waves would be associated with relaxing of restrictions.
You would think if Sweden keep going as they are that they won't have waves but more constant rates.

Of course who knows what will actually happen.

Ginger n Lemon

wakka12 wrote: »

Serum testing in several Europecountries has shown relatively low rates of infection. So there was some cases in France in December, it still was not widespread, otherwise many more people would have virus antibodies.

And I didnt say it only arrived in March in Sweden, but that is when the first official death was recorded. So it is from that point onward that you compare the number of covid deaths to other figures. Comparing the number of deaths in an entire year in Sweden to the official deaths from COVID over the course of two months is a bizarre and illogical comparison

I didnt compare deaths from 2 months of covid to an entire year in Sweden. Just gave perspective.

Also pointed out that for 2020, Sweden will likely have as many deaths as it had in 2019. And this is something that will be highlighted for years to come, that to deal with a virus you need to wash hands and keep 2 metres away from strangers.

There is no need to be shutting down businesses, forcing people to stay at home and put on extra weight (pushing them into overweight/obese categories), scare mongering your own citizens and spiking up suicide deaths or deferring/cancelling cancer screenings or treatments.

I would love to revisit this post in mid March btw 2021, all up for it.

charlie14

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I hope you don't expect a response to these facts?

Not really, but I got one anyway.
My post it seems was apparently : "predictions" and unsourced speculation.
I replied giving two source to back up the GDP "predictions" CNBC market report quoting the Swedish Central Bank and for good measure I threw in the Trading Economics quarter by quarter "predictions".
Strangely I have heard nothing since.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Its been proven that covid was in France in December.

Why would we be so certain that it made it's way to Sweden in mid March 2020?

I think it's been in Sweden a long time, if their officials believe their capital will have herd immunity this month.

It would be very impressive if their capital will reach herd immunity in the 7 weeks time frame you reference. (or even 10 weeks)

The thing to remember with death numbers is that deaths 100% will happen. A person who survived covid 19 in March, may unfortunately pass away with flu in October or November. At risk category is also a category that's hoovering around life expectancy. Their former chief epidemiologist believes that in the end there will be very little difference in total deaths, if any.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY&t=1s

Where are you getting this herd immunity in Stockholm in 7 weeks from?

A month ago according to Swedish authorities it was estimated at 33%, then downgraded to 27%, and Tegnell on a post here this week estimated 25%.

With their Ro under 1 it would not be just impressive to reach that 70% that we really do not know what value it would have, or how long it would last. It would be a miracle.

wakka12

charlie14 wrote: »

Where are you getting this herd immunity in Stockholm in 7 weeks from?

A month ago according to Swedish authorities it was estimated at 33%, then downgraded to 27%, and Tegnell on a post here this week estimated 25%.

With their Ro under 1 it would not be just impressive to reach that 70% that we really do not know what value it would have, or how long it would last. It would be a miracle.

Yeh, the statement is just not grounded in any reality. Multiple serum tests in other European countries has shown rates of infection at 10-15% in hotspots, outside of those hotspots it is 1-3%.
Netherlands - only 3% of the population overall
MAdrid, Geneva, Gangelt epicentre town in Germay 11% % 10% &15% respectively

Less hard hit places such as Helsinki 3.4%, Copenhagen 1.7%, Czech Republic 0.4%, Iceland 1%, Scotland 0.6%

It is very likely that no more than 1 in every 25 Europeans has ever been infected.

And given that ,we are somehow supposed to believe that the statements from Swedish atuhorities that number infected in Stockholm is anyway near that high? How the hell would Stockholm with 1500 deaths have 3x times more infection than Madrid with an 11% infection rate and 8500 deaths

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABchNlgG8*0znT152OBcjvTysrbg4e3w#gid=0

alwald

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Really? I must tell the healthy, non-smoking, late 30s woman I know who has been in on an ventilator for a month and who is also having her heart supported and who will likely never return to the health she enjoyed previously that COVID19 is no biggie.

She’ll survive which is great but her health will not be what it was and that is nothing to be flippant about. It’s not just about survival.

A lot of people are missing this point and are blindly believing that young people should be infected to achieve "herd immunity" which is not guaranteed BTW.

I hope that your friend, and all those impacted by C-19 will recover ASAP.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

alwald wrote: »

A lot of people are missing this point and are blindly believing that young people should be infected to achieve "herd immunity" which is not guaranteed BTW.

I hope that your friend, and all those impacted by C-19 will recover ASAP.

They are now finally working towards moving her off the ventilator, thankfully. But it took a long time to get that point. And even if she was 100% now, losing a month of your life to an induced coma is very upsetting. And she likely won’t be 100% sadly. As well as her heart and lungs being supported, her kidneys were struggling at one point. She’s so lucky she survived.

kaymin

charlie14 wrote: »

Not really, but I got one anyway.
My post it seems was apparently : "predictions" and unsourced speculation.
I replied giving two source to back up the GDP "predictions" CNBC market report quoting the Swedish Central Bank and for good measure I threw in the Trading Economics quarter by quarter "predictions".
Strangely I have heard nothing since.

Just a few other points from the article you have selectively quoted from:

"In the first scenario, the Riksbank predicted unemployment could reach 8.8% in 2020, from 7.2% currently, and in the worst-case forecast could hit 10.1%."

“Developments in April indicate that the Covid-19 pandemic will hit the Swedish economy much harder than anticipated,” the NIER said, adding that “the global economy is developing worse than expected which is hitting Swedish export companies which are also hampered by problems with international supply chains.”

So the increase in unemployment will be relatively muted compared to the experiences of other countries and the fall in their GDP seems to be primarily driven by problems in other countries.

alwald

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

They are now finally working towards moving her off the ventilator, thankfully. But it took a long time to get that point. And even if she was 100% now, losing a month of your life to an induced coma is very upsetting. And she likely won’t be 100% sadly. As well as her heart and lungs being supported, her kidneys were struggling at one point. She’s so lucky she survived.

I truly wish your friend all the best. The long term impact of C-19 on the human body will only be determined/known in the next few years, any country advocating herd immunity, based on the current knowledge we have of this virus, is playing with fire and with the lives of its citizens.

charlie14

wakka12 wrote: »

Yeh, the statement is just not grounded in any reality. Multiple serum tests in other European countries has shown rates of infection at 10-15% in hotspots, outside of those hotspots it is 1-3%.
Netherlands - only 3% of the population overall
MAdrid, Geneva, Gangelt epicentre town in Germay 11% % 10% &15% respectively

Less hard hit places such as Helsinki 3.4%, Copenhagen 1.7%, Czech Republic 0.4%, Iceland 1%, Scotland 0.6%

It is very likely that no more than 1 in every 25 Europeans has ever been infected.

And given that ,we are somehow supposed to believe that the statements from Swedish atuhorities that number infected in Stockholm is anyway near that high? How the hell would Stockholm with 1500 deaths have 3x times more infection than Madrid with an 11% infection rate and 8500 deaths

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABchNlgG8*0znT152OBcjvTysrbg4e3w#gid=0

Even less grounded in reality when you consider those statistics.
With our confirmed cases,and half the population, practically the same as Sweden then we could claim following that logic that Dublin has herd immunity.

Ginger n Lemon

Wow are you still posting?

I said earlier

"It would be very impressive if their capital will reach herd immunity in the 7 weeks time frame you reference. (or even 10 weeks)"

Charles wanted

"Where are you getting this herd immunity in Stockholm in 7 weeks from?"

Not me. assumption of the original poster.

This thread is as good as gone. Just remember, every day there are no "death spikes" or "coffins piling up" Sweden's approach proves to be successful. They do not have 28% unemployment.

Unless their approach success was based on number of deaths. Even still, 3k extra deaths in 4 months of 2020. Total died in 2019 : 91k.

charlie14

kaymin wrote: »

Just a few other points from the article you have selectively quoted from:

"In the first scenario, the Riksbank predicted unemployment could reach 8.8% in 2020, from 7.2% currently, and in the worst-case forecast could hit 10.1%."

“Developments in April indicate that the Covid-19 pandemic will hit the Swedish economy much harder than anticipated,” the NIER said, adding that “the global economy is developing worse than expected which is hitting Swedish export companies which are also hampered by problems with international supply chains.”

So the increase in unemployment will be relatively muted compared to the experiences of other countries and the fall in their GDP seems to be primarily driven by problems in other countries.

You may want to read what I actually posted.
I did not selectively post from any article.

I posted in reply to a post that I believed was selectively quoting the Swedish Central Bank`s figure for GDP for the first quarter to give the impression that economically Sweden was doing 5 times better than those countries that did not follow their example.

I posted the Swedish Central Bank`s own GDP projection for 2020 from 30th. April as reported by CNBC Market Report. I posted Trading Economics Sweden`s actual 1st.quarter and their projected figures for the other 3 quarters.
I also posted the projected IMF GDP figures for other European countries that have followed a different strategy to Sweden. Some of which are neighbours of Sweden whose projected GDP is actually better than Sweden`s.

I do not know what "the fall in their GDP seems to be primarily driven by problems in other countries" is meant to signify. The GDP contraction in ALL countries is primarily driven by Covid19.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

You may want to read what I actually posted.
I did not selectively post from any article.

I posted in reply to a post that I believed was selectively quoting the Swedish Central Bank`s figure for GDP for the first quarter to give the impression that economically Sweden was doing 5 times better than those countries that did not follow their example.

I posted the Swedish Central Bank`s own GDP projection for 2020 from 30th. April as reported by CNBC Market Report. I posted Trading Economics Sweden`s actual 1st.quarter and their projected figures for the other 3 quarters.
I also posted the projected IMF GDP figures for other European countries that have followed a different strategy to Sweden. Some of which are neighbours of Sweden whose projected GDP is actually better than Sweden`s.

I do not know what "the fall in their GDP seems to be primarily driven by problems in other countries" is meant to signify. The GDP contraction in ALL countries is primarily driven by Covid19.

Its the 10th time that you say "You may want to read what I actually posted"

You need to be concise.

You keep either dreaming of vaccines not realising that without antibodies they are worthless or posting some crazy CNBC (US company) projections of Swedish economy prediction.

Can you say that Yes Sweden have done well? Whats preventing you from saying that? Their 0.03% covid19 mortality rate? 10m population, 3.3k dead. 0.03% mortality.

Not exactly a 3.4% mortality rate estimated by WHO back in da day is it?

Danno

wakka12 wrote: »

...So there was some cases in France in December, it still was not widespread, otherwise many more people would have virus antibodies...

B0LL0X to this. Supreme Leader Leo told us in not so many words on March 14th that if we didn't lockdown we'd have 15,000 cases by months end. Why is France so different then? By the way, another November 29th case in France is under investigation.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Wow are you still posting?

I said earlier

"It would be very impressive if their capital will reach herd immunity in the 7 weeks time frame you reference. (or even 10 weeks)"

Charles wanted

"Where are you getting this herd immunity in Stockholm in 7 weeks from?"

Not me. assumption of the original poster.

This thread is as good as gone. Just remember, every day there are no "death spikes" or "coffins piling up" Sweden's approach proves to be successful. They do not have 28% unemployment.

Unless their approach success was based on number of deaths. Even still, 3k extra deaths in 4 months of 2020. Total died in 2019 : 91k.

Wow You seem a bit put out.

Would that be because I point out when you selectively use a report to misrepresent Sweden`s Central Bank on what they view as the 2020 reality of Sweden`s GDP, or challenge misleading statements you make as if they were facts ?

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

Wow You seem a bit put out.

Would that be because I point out when you selectively use a report to misrepresent Sweden`s Central Bank on what they view as the 2020 reality of Sweden`s GDP, or challenge misleading statements you make as if they were facts ?

Below statements are facts. I provide the link as well. I dont know what you have been "challenging"

Posted 4 days ago:

"Official figures show the Sweden's economy shrank by just 0.3pc in the first three months of 2020, a far smaller decline than most forecasters and its central bank expected. The Riksbank had pencilled in a drop of between 0.8pc and 1.8pc.

The smaller scale of the fall contrasts with record slumps seen elsewhere across the Eurozone over the quarter as governments imposed much more stringent measures. France's economy tumbled 5.8pc, Italy's 4.7pc and Spain's by 5.2pc,
"

Their pandemic unemployment? not even 10%. Could be 10% in the summer. 18% less than Ireland.

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSL5N2C2300

From economic perspective they are doing 2.5 times better in terms of unemployment and 5 times better in terms of GDP, from deaths perspective they have 20 deaths more per million than Ireland. 0.002% more deaths per million than Ireland.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Its the 10th time that you say "You may want to read what I actually posted"

You need to be concise.

You keep either dreaming of vaccines not realising that without antibodies they are worthless or posting some crazy CNBC (US company) projections of Swedish economy prediction.

Can you say that Yes Sweden have done well? Whats preventing you from saying that? Their 0.03% covid19 mortality rate? 10m population, 3.3k dead. 0.03% mortality.

Not exactly a 3.4% mortality rate estimated by WHO back in da day is it?

I said "You may want to read what I posted because the poster obviously had not. I even repeated it with sources supplied for what I said.

LOL. Those "crazy CNBC projections" were verbatim the Swedish Central Bank`s projections on 30th April.

When it comes to lessons on vaccines and immunity,you will I hope excuse me when I do not feel it a great idea to take them from someone who said that if 60/70% had immunity they will pass on a weaker version of the virus to the most vulnerable.

Sweden are doing no better than many others where mortality rates are concerned. Worse than some of their neighbouring countries.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Below statements are facts. I provide the link as well. I dont know what you have been "challenging"

Posted 4 days ago:

"Official figures show the Sweden's economy shrank by just 0.3pc in the first three months of 2020, a far smaller decline than most forecasters and its central bank expected. The Riksbank had pencilled in a drop of between 0.8pc and 1.8pc.

The smaller scale of the fall contrasts with record slumps seen elsewhere across the Eurozone over the quarter as governments imposed much more stringent measures. France's economy tumbled 5.8pc, Italy's 4.7pc and Spain's by 5.2pc,
"

Their pandemic unemployment? not even 10%. Could be 10% in the summer. 18% less than Ireland.

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSL5N2C2300

From economic perspective they are doing 2.5 times better in terms of unemployment and 5 times better in terms of GDP, from deaths perspective they have 20 deaths more per million than Ireland. 0.002% more deaths per million than Ireland.

Are you purposely avoiding the Swedish Central Bank projections for GDP for 2020 or do you not know what the significance is ?

On their predictions, and those of the IMF for other European countries for 2020, the value of economic activity in Sweden will not be discernibly different from most European countries that have used lockdown.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

Are you purposely avoiding the Swedish Central Bank projections for GDP for 2020 or do you not know what the significance is ?

On their predictions, and those of the IMF for other European countries for 2020, the value of economic activity in Sweden will not be discernibly different from most European countries that have used lockdown.

Charles how can I take those projections seriously? They are clearly 2 to 6 times incorrect looking at on Q1 alone.

Official figures show the Sweden's economy shrank by just 0.3pc in the first three months of 2020, a far smaller decline than most forecasters and its central bank expected. The Riksbank had pencilled in a drop of between 0.8pc and 1.8pc.

threeball

charlie14 wrote: »

Are you purposely avoiding the Swedish Central Bank projections for GDP for 2020 or do you not know what the significance is ?

On their predictions, and those of the IMF for other European countries for 2020, the value of economic activity in Sweden will not be discernibly different from most European countries that have used lockdown.

To think the Swedish economy can exist in some sort of isolated utopia is extremely foolish. They depend heavily on other countries to supply their induztries and purchase their goods. It may impact later but it will impact.

wakka12

Danno wrote: »

B0LL0X to this. Supreme Leader Leo told us in not so many words on March 14th that if we didn't lockdown we'd have 15,000 cases by months end. Why is France so different then? By the way, another November 29th case in France is under investigation.

Okay, and I'm not disputing the timeline of when the virus entered France. But reagrdless of when it did, it did not spread widely, as shown by the relatively low number of Europeans who have developed antibodies. They may have been isolated cases in france back at those dates, the low rate of community spread before then would imply that they indeed were

Or alternately the virus is just not as infectious as was originally thought. But again, a lot of recent evidence shows that it is quite infectious

wakka12

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Its the 10th time that you say "You may want to read what I actually posted"

You need to be concise.

You keep either dreaming of vaccines not realising that without antibodies they are worthless or posting some crazy CNBC (US company) projections of Swedish economy prediction.

Can you say that Yes Sweden have done well? Whats preventing you from saying that? Their 0.03% covid19 mortality rate? 10m population, 3.3k dead. 0.03% mortality.

Not exactly a 3.4% mortality rate estimated by WHO back in da day is it?

They are not the same thing. 0.03% of a country dying from a virus is not the same as the virus having a mortality rate of 0.03%. Depends entirely on the number of infected people, which is unknown

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Charles how can I take those projections seriously? They are clearly 2 to 6 times incorrect looking at on Q1 alone.

Official figures show the Sweden's economy shrank by just 0.3pc in the first three months of 2020, a far smaller decline than most forecasters and its central bank expected. The Riksbank had pencilled in a drop of between 0.8pc and 1.8pc.

At this stage I could not care less how you or all the others who will not accept that Sweden`s projected GDP from Sweden`s own Central Bank shows that for 2020 there is no discernible difference from other European countries that used lockdowns, rather than Sweden`s strategy, because it does not suit their narrative.

cnocbui

wakka12 wrote: »

They are not the same thing. 0.03% of a country dying from a virus is not the same as the virus having a mortality rate of 0.03%. Depends entirely on the number of infected people, which is unknown

The number of infected people will most likely get to being 80% of most countries populations, so that 0.03% of infections will largely relate to the population as a whole also.

This is why the Sweden did the wrong thing bashing is so staggeringly pointless. We will all be Sweden soon enough.

wakka12

cnocbui wrote: »

The number of infected people will most likely get to being 80% of most countries populations, so that 0.03% of infections will largely relate to the population as a whole also.

This is why the Sweden did the wrong thing bashing is so staggeringly pointless. We will all be Sweden soon enough.

Do you think 80% of people in New Zealand and South Korea and Iceland will ever get the virus? I highly doubt it

cnocbui

wakka12 wrote: »

Do you think 80% of people in New Zealand and South Korea and Iceland will ever get the virus? I highly doubt it

Yes. Neither New Zealand nor Iceland can afford to keep their borders closed to tourism until there is a vaccine.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

At this stage I could not care less how you or all the others who will not accept that Sweden`s projected GDP from Sweden`s own Central Bank shows that for 2020 there is no discernible difference from other European countries that used lockdowns, rather than Sweden`s strategy, because it does not suit their narrative.

I would be cautious about using any economic forecasts in the current unprecedented times particularly without knowing the assumptions they are making regarding Covid-19. For example, many were predicting that Sweden's deaths would spiral out of control by this time and that hospitals would be overrun with people going sick, yet this has not happened and it does not seem likely that this will happen in the future. Had it happened, Sweden would have had to impose a lockdown similar to Italy or Spain.

This would have meant that economic forecasts would take this into account and predict falls in GDP similar to other European countries.

Better I think to wait until the first quarter figures are out for a sample of countries and compare them. That will give some indication of how economies will do in the future. I would expect differences in the first quarter to increase as the various lockdowns continue.

France: -5.8
Italy: -4.7
Spain: -5.2
Sweden: -0.3

etc.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Even less grounded in reality when you consider those statistics.
With our confirmed cases,and half the population, practically the same as Sweden then we could claim following that logic that Dublin has herd immunity.

I don't think that logic is correct. Ireland has done a lot more testing proportionately than Sweden so we would expect the confirmed cases in Sweden to under-represent actual infections more in Sweden than Ireland.

Overall deaths in Ireland are similar to that in Sweden on a per-million basis but that could be down to variations in the quality of medical care.

Xertz

Seems very unlikely that there wouldn’t have been top notch medical care in Ireland. The hospitals have been well able to cope and ICU capacity or access has not been a problem at all.

The system is well funded and has access to all of the same kinds of high tech medicines and treatments.

There are a lot of unknowns about how this spread but it could be many things. We are also very, very deeply connected to the U.K. and Spain, but also France and so on.

You could find there differences are in transmission pathways like that.

Sweden may also be doing something different to most countries with how they structure old age care. They tend to have always had very progressive social care models and a lot of the high death clusters in Ireland, the U.K., the US, France, Belgium & Spain have take place in those kinds of settings.

My suspicion is that it’s just that Ireland is part of the same movement bubble as U.K., Spain, France, Belgium and probably the Eastern US.

We’re performing relatively better than that bubble but, not better than Scandinavia, Germany or parts of Eastern Europe and I would suspect it’s quite simply we are most definitely part of Western Europe. Whatever ebbs and flows went on there we were part of.

Bit cynical

Xertz wrote: »

Seems very unlikely that there wouldn’t have been top notch medical care in Ireland. The hospitals have been well able to cope and ICU capacity or access has not been a problem at all.

The system is well funded and has access to all of the same kinds of high tech medicines and treatments.

There are a lot of unknowns about how this spread but it could be many things. We are also very, very deeply connected to the U.K. and Spain, but also France and so on.

You could find there differences are in transmission pathways like that.

Sweden may also be doing something different to most countries with old age care. They tend to have always had very progressive social care models and a lot of the high death clusters in Ireland, the U.K., the US, France, Belgium & Spain have take place in those kinds of settings.

The connections with the UK and Spain etc. would account for a high infection rate but Sweden's would appear to be much higher proportionately given that their testing is about half that of ours. Someone on another thread said that Sweden has 17,119 active cases of Covid-29 whilst Ireland has 4002 such cases despite an overall lower testing rate in Sweden. It is the mortality rate per estimated infection that seems much lower in Sweden.

Nevertheless their deaths to date are only 3% higher than ours per capita. To me this suggests that medical care (not necessarily just hospitals) is where we must look.