Sweden avoiding lockdown

Danzy

Danno wrote: »

B0LL0X to this. Supreme Leader Leo told us in not so many words on March 14th that if we didn't lockdown we'd have 15,000 cases by months end. Why is France so different then? By the way, another November 29th case in France is under investigation.

France's lockdown was much more stricter than here.

threeball

Danzy wrote: »

France's lockdown was much more stricter than here.

The text was, the adherence wasn't. Typically of the french they didn't think much of authority or rules and spent most days packing into little market streets browsing stalls. That went on for weeks and kept the fire burning. We were far more compliant to a less aggressive strategy.

fash

Bit cynical wrote: »

Nevertheless their deaths to date are only 3% higher than ours per capita. To me this suggests that medical care (not necessarily just hospitals) is where we must look.

Aside from potential differences in counting (so only looking at the excess mortality rate is really helpful for comparing) as the mortality rate is so strongly affected by age, if there are any greater vulnerabilities in protecting such populations , allowing the virus greater access to nursing homes etc., it will result in relatively outsized mortality rates.

I'd look at both of those points.

threeball

Bit cynical wrote: »

The connections with the UK and Spain etc. would account for a high infection rate but Sweden's would appear to be much higher proportionately given that their testing is about half that of ours. Someone on another thread said that Sweden has 17,119 active cases of Covid-29 whilst Ireland has 4002 such cases despite an overall lower testing rate in Sweden. It is the mortality rate per estimated infection that seems much lower in Sweden.

Nevertheless their deaths to date are only 3% higher than ours per capita. To me this suggests that medical care (not necessarily just hospitals) is where we must look.

Or perhaps they took the German route of being very selective of who they classified as a Covid death thereby artifically reducing the numbers. If we took out all people with co-morbities where would our numbers be?

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I would be cautious about using any economic forecasts in the current unprecedented times particularly without knowing the assumptions they are making regarding Covid-19. For example, many were predicting that Sweden's deaths would spiral out of control by this time and that hospitals would be overrun with people going sick, yet this has not happened and it does not seem likely that this will happen in the future. Had it happened, Sweden would have had to impose a lockdown similar to Italy or Spain.

This would have meant that economic forecasts would take this into account and predict falls in GDP similar to other European countries.

Better I think to wait until the first quarter figures are out for a sample of countries and compare them. That will give some indication of how economies will do in the future. I would expect differences in the first quarter to increase as the various lockdowns continue.

France: -5.8
Italy: -4.7
Spain: -5.2
Sweden: -0.3

etc.

Many posters here who favor the Swedish strategy over that of all other European countries are not slow in making predictions of how effective that strategy will be compared to that of other countries. When pointed out to them that at present the mortality rate is much higher per capita than neighbouring countries the reply is, you cannot judge at this point, in time our predictions and those of Sweden will be correct.

My original post was in response to one, (that similar to yours), posted Q1 figures attempting to show that Sweden`s strategy would result in a better financial outlook than others that did not follow that strategy.
Sweden`s Central Bank predicted GDP contractions for the next 3 quarters that rubbished that.
Sweden`s Central Bank is the worlds longest established central bank. I would imagine when it comes to predictions regarding their own economy, especially with all the data available to them, they know what they are doing.

As to your mention of unprecedented times and Covid-19.
Their predictions took that into account and predicted both worst and best case.
Best case showed no discernible difference from other European countries. Worse in a few.
The Riksbank were not the only predictors of this GDP contraction. World Economics do also, with predictions for each quarter.

Similar to the cake and eat it analogy, it lacks credibility for posters to expect others to blindly accept their predictions based on one Swedish authorities often sketch data, while refusing to accept the economic predictions of the same country`s Central Bank.

biko

Belgium's numbers are so incredibly high because they count anyone remotely suspicious as a covid death - overcounting.
Sweden, while having the most deaths in the Nordics by far, are counting low - undercounting.

charlie14

threeball wrote: »

Or perhaps they took the German route of being very selective of who they classified as a Covid death thereby artifically reducing the numbers. If we took out all people with co-morbities where would our numbers be?

Good point. If there is one thing I find strange with their data it`s the 12%+ ratio of deaths to confirmed cases. Double our`s and a figure we were assured here would drop as their confirmed cases increased.

threeball

charlie14 wrote: »

Good point. If there is one thing I find strange with their data it`s the 12%+ ratio of deaths to confirmed cases. Double our`s and a figure we were assured here would drop as their confirmed cases increased.

Low testing, selective counting and its easy to paint a rosy picture. They're doing the same in the states.

Bit cynical

threeball wrote: »

Or perhaps they took the German route of being very selective of who they classified as a Covid death thereby artifically reducing the numbers. If we took out all people with co-morbities where would our numbers be?

You think Sweden is artificially reducing morbidity rates like Germany?

Mantis Toboggan

threeball wrote: »

Or perhaps they took the German route of being very selective of who they classified as a Covid death thereby artifically reducing the numbers. If we took out all people with co-morbities where would our numbers be?

Any proof of that with the Germans or are you just making it up?

Xertz

It’s not likely to be for the sake of creation of a false sense of low numbers. There are different methodologies applied to counting mortalities.

That’s why in finding the comparisons between countries useless and even counterproductive. It’s even worse with the testing as the more you test per capita the more cases you find. So those countries testing more are being criticised by media and commentators online for finding cases, which is exactly what they’re supposed to be doing to trace and control spread.

Obviously we’re not going to get to NZ rate, because NZ is physically isolated and this occurred mid Southern Hemisphere summer, which meant less indoors lifestyle etc etc too. We were hit mid winter, and are part of Western Europe and are connected to London with more people movements than Auckland is to Wellington.

The Euromomo showing excess mortality is probably more useful for making comparisons, as it doesn’t pay any attention to cause of death, just the number of people who died vs what is normal.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Sweden sees a significant spike. England has a huge spike. Ireland is relatively flat, so is Germany, Denmark, Austria and Finland.

So unless the data is somehow very flawed, on excess mortality our strategy seems to have generally worked.

threeball

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Any proof of that with the Germans or are you just making it up?

Yes it was widely reported. Germany were not classifying all deaths that tested positive as covid as deaths from Covid if there was an underlying condition. Common knowledge and referenced many times throughout the main thread also. Google it. Do you think their low deaths per 1000 cases were due to blind luck?

biko

Germany counts deaths in care homes only if people have tested positive for the virus.

Belgium, on the other hand, includes any death in which a doctor suspects coronavirus was involved.

https://www.bbc.com/news/52311014 29 April 2020

biko

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/sweden-starts-criminal-probe-into-care-home-after-virus-deaths

Sweden Starts Criminal Probe Into Care Home After Coronavirus Deaths

Swedish prosecutors have launched an investigation into an elderly care home in Stockholm where more than a third of residents have reportedly died after the novel coronavirus spread at the facility.

Since the Covid-19 outbreak started 35 residents at the home have passed away, according to a report from public broadcaster SVT. The facility came under scrutiny after a union safety representative filed a report with authorities, saying staff had moved between infected and healthy residents without changing protective gear.

When I reported this a week ago the number was 27 out of 96, now 35.

The name of the place is Berga health and care home https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/personal-pa-bergas-aldreboende-kritiska-till
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/WbM3Pj/forundersokning-inledd-mot-berga-aldreboende

Xertz

I think until we see a comparison by the likes of Eurostat and the OECD where stricter interpretation of data is used, we can’t really compare anything.

Mantis Toboggan

threeball wrote: »

Yes it was widely reported. Germany were not classifying all deaths that tested positive as covid as deaths from Covid if there was an underlying condition.

Really, post above suggests they were.

Mantis Toboggan

biko wrote: »

Source?

It's not being made public for now.

Joe_ Public

Where is it common knowledge that Germany are being selective with their stats? Would be interested to see more on that.

According to these economist graphs, Germany has the closest correlation between official deaths and excess deaths. Caveat is German figures only available to April 4, so unless their counting methods subsequently changed drastically, there's little reason to believe that's changed significantly. Sweden/France do well too and suspect ireland would be 90%+ too if it was included.

https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1258497092953219072?s=20

Mantis Toboggan

Don't think its common knowledge people just putting 2 & 2 together and getting 5.

wakka12

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Where is it common knowledge that Germany are being selective with their stats? Would be interested to see more on that.

According to these economist graphs, Germany has the closest correlation between official deaths and excess deaths. Caveat is German figures only available to April 4, so unless their counting methods subsequently changed drastically, there's little reason to believe that's changed significantly. Sweden/France do well too and suspect ireland would be 90%+ too if it was included.

https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1258497092953219072?s=20

Biko posted a source at the top of the page showing that at least some deaths in Germany are not being reported

If Ireland counted the same way as Germany we would have several hundred less deaths

Ginger n Lemon

wakka12 wrote: »

Biko posted a source at the top of the page showing that at least some deaths in Germany are not being reported

If Ireland counted the same way as Germany we would have several hundred less deaths

It seems like Belgium reports all deaths in nursing homes as covid19. Talk about crazy. Whats next, every death in hospital will be covid19 death?

SCHULTZ: "Our system of surveillance," he says, "which counts all the deaths in nursing homes as COVID-related, is not used by the countries with which we are compared." That means no matter whether someone who died in a nursing home was even tested for the coronavirus - and only a tiny percentage are - they're included in Belgium's national death toll. This category makes up more than half of Belgium's COVID-19 total, so authorities here say other countries' death tolls from the virus are likely double what they're reporting.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/01/848956132/belgian-officials-forced-to-defend-calculations-for-covid-19-deaths

wakka12

That is really weird. I dont understand the thinking behind counting every nursing home death as covid. Surely at least it is limited to nursing homes that have had at least one confirmed infection among the residents?

bmc58

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

Any country can continue as normal if they are willing to accept that many people will die.

Sweden seem to be ok with a higher death than other countries.

I think they are starting to see the error of their ways now.The virus is running riot in their country now due to their governments initial stupidity.

Ginger n Lemon

wakka12 wrote: »

That is really weird. I dont understand the thinking behind counting every nursing home death as covid. Surely at least it is limited to nursing homes that have had at least one confirmed infection among the residents?

I think we can safely say Belgium have over-counted their "covid related" deaths.

MJohnston

Sweden’s stated plan of protecting the most vulnerable has been a complete disaster, and even their officials are admitting they’ve ****ed up.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/20200510-sweden-admits-failure-to-protect-elderly-in-care-homes

Mantis Toboggan

bmc58 wrote: »

I think they are starting to see the error of their ways now.The virus is running riot in their country now due to their governments initial stupidity.

Per Capita they're just slightly ahead of ours and while we're gone into deep recession there likely to be able keep their economy strong.

Xertz

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Per Capita they're just slightly ahead of ours and while we're gone into deep recession there likely to be able keep their economy strong.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

As yet, we don't really know what the situation with the Irish economy is. As the restrictions lift, it's quite probably that you'll see a rapid shift back to employment again for most people. So, there'll be an impact, but how pronounced and how long that will be is unclear.

The fundamentals of the Irish economy were very strong going into this and not much has changed in that regard. There'll be a big bang for the hospitality industry and tourism, but in terms of tourism, we are actually one of the least dependent on those revenues as a part of our GNI or GDP, so overall the impact of that will be relatively light and regionalised.

I wouldn't necessarily start a major doom fest about Ireland just yet. A very large part of the economy also was not subject to any significant lockdown. Many businesses, particularly in the services, tech and manufacturing side of things have been working away as normal, with modifications.

When construction for example goes back on stream, it's likely to go quite fully back.

Retail will struggle for a time.

Then you've got the domestic, EU and ECB stimulus packages which may well push things back into line quite fast.

The bigger risk both here and in Sweden is actually the global economy and slumping demand and Ireland's particularly exposed to what happens in the US and UK, and neither of those places have handled it very well due to political instability.

Sweden may have taken a different approach to us, but the common ground between the two places has been pragmatic, sensible politics and very pragmatic populations, while different, both also have strong social democratic structures and supports too, so I can't see things being allowed to go to the wall in either place.

The US is quite special at the moment though and I think there's a huge risk of economic chaos driven by a refusal deal with the problem or treating a virus as a political foe instead of a scientific issue. It really is a remarkable era of American politics and for all the wrong reasons.

The countries I would really worry about though are the developing ones that will not have been able to get a grip on this at all. That's likely to also cause all sorts of global economic and social chaos in the months ahead, and we are all going to feel that.

charlie14

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Per Capita they're just slightly ahead of ours and while we're gone into deep recession there likely to be able keep their economy strong.

From the GDP projections of their own Central Bank when compared to the IMF projection for other European countries, there will be no discernible differences.

wakka12

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Per Capita they're just slightly ahead of ours and while we're gone into deep recession there likely to be able keep their economy strong.

Sweden's economy does not exist in isolation. It is dependent on the rest of the world economy too. Their economy will go down with the sinking ship, but also many more people die there than necessary

Breezin

biko wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/sweden-starts-criminal-probe-into-care-home-after-virus-deaths

When I reported this a week ago the number was 27 out of 96, now 35.

The name of the place is Berga health and care home https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/personal-pa-bergas-aldreboende-kritiska-till
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/WbM3Pj/forundersokning-inledd-mot-berga-aldreboende

You asked for a source when another poster referred to a care home in Ireland with a large-scale death toll. Here's one from the I. Times yesterday.

Coronavirus: Staff shortages and test delays fuelled Dundalk home outbreak Dealgan House nursing home has had 23 deaths during a serious coronavirus outbreak

Sweden certainly isn't unique in this regard. See also NI and the UK generally.