Sweden avoiding lockdown

Breezin

Given the herd immunity hypnosis displayed by some posters here, I'm surprised this article featuring Tegnell, from the Irish Times (origin FT) has been ignored. I think it got a link, but no discussion. May not have suited some perspectives.
It gives the lie to the idea that Sweden is simply pursuing an objective of herd immunity. Inconvenient for tabloid headline writers.

Some outtakes:

Tegnell argued that “nothing [to do with lockdowns] had a scientific basis”, particularly decisions to close schools, because there was no evidence that children were a major cause of transmission.
He believes European leaders, fearful that their health systems would be overwhelmed, felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down due to the disease.

(See also the Newsnight vid that I posted a couple of days back in which senior medical figures in the UK endorse the view that the lockdown was an overreaction.)

On herd immunity, and why it isn't an aim:

Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach “herd immunity”, a level of the disease where so many people are infected – usually about 80 per cent – that it stops spreading. “I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added.

So what do we do if it's not going away (another story today saying it might mutate in a more dangerous version)? We adopt a sustainable policy:

Many countries’ hope is that they can keep the virus at bay until a vaccine is found. But Tegnell said that, even in the best-case scenario, it was likely to take “years” to develop one, before it could be administered to an entire population.

“It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”

biko

Thanks, a source is always good.
So 23 residents out of 84 dead in suspected covid in a Dundalk nursing home.
In the Swedish one ti's deemed so serious it's got attention from a public prosecutor.

When 30% of old people in a single place die it's truly horrific.
In the Swedish homes they claim many of the staff went to work while being sick, which would be in breach of Swedish law.

23 out of 57 employees in elderly homes went to work sick
Over a third had fever, coughing or cold symptoms. Four had covid-19.

https://www.gp.se/nyheter/g%C3%B6teborg/23-av-57-anst%C3%A4llda-p%C3%A5-%C3%A4ldreboende-gick-till-jobbet-sjuka-1.27040356

Xertz

It's somewhat contradictory to pursue a policy of herd immunity and then not expect it to get into nursing homes. It's inevitable.

Were they testing staff in the nursing homes? Seems unlikely at the testing levels they were reporting and was very unlikely 6 weeks or so ago, generally.

What kind of PPE were staff issued with?

Were people visiting?

Lots of questions.

Ginger n Lemon

Breezin wrote: »

Given the herd immunity hypnosis displayed by some posters here, I'm surprised this article featuring Tegnell, from the Irish Times (origin FT) has been ignored. I think it got a link, but no discussion. May not have suited some perspectives.
It gives the lie to the idea that Sweden is simply pursuing an objective of herd immunity. Inconvenient for tabloid headline writers.

Some outtakes:

(See also the Newsnight vid that I posted a couple of days back in which senior medical figures in the UK endorse the view that the lockdown was an overreaction.)

On herd immunity, and why it isn't an aim:
So what do we do if it's not going away (another story today saying it might mutate in a more dangerous version)? We adopt a sustainable policy:

Fully agree. Man is exceptionally smart. Sat down with his team, looked at whats going to happen 12 months from now 24 months 36, 48 months and adopted a strategy.

We havent adopted any strategy, we just cocooned ourselves in and now are dreading to come out. In the process creating a lot of unemployment.

While Sweden's economy doesnt exist in isolation their local SME jobs are much more likely to survive than ours (we already have companies going out of business, permanently). And SME jobs take years (decades) to create.

Knowing our government, whatever stimulus they get from ECB they ll just increase social welfare payments instead of creating meaningful SME jobs. PS I dont think there ll be plenty of entrepreneurs queuing up to start a business in Ireland anytime soon. (what for, lol covid20 will come and you have to close the shop for 3 - 5 months again while taking interest free loans from govt?)

Breezin

Xertz wrote: »

It's somewhat contradictory to pursue a policy of herd immunity and then not expect it to get into nursing homes. It's inevitable.

Please see above. This herd immunity thing has been rolling on for days weeks.

They

are

not

seeking

herd

immunity.

Xertz

from article you posted reference to wrote:

“In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Tegnell told the Financial Times. “But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?”

I won't post it in underlined bold, but this would suggest they are looking at herd immunity.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

Please see above. This herd immunity thing has been rolling on for days weeks.

They

are

not

seeking

herd

immunity.

It`s the basket they have put all their eggs in.

Breezin

Xertz wrote: »

I won't post it in underlined bold, but this would suggest they are looking at herd immunity.

It doesn't. Unless you want to completely disregard his other remarks. They are looking at maximizing immunity. Herd immunity is a specific target which he actually says in the article is not an objective.

I don't know how it could be any clearer.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

It doesn't. Unless you want to completely disregard his other remarks. They are looking at maximizing immunity. Herd immunity is a specific target which he actually says in the article is not an objective.

I don't know how it could be any clearer.

If your strategy was herd immunity, your only strategy, and you realise from the numbers it was not possible, what would you say when questioned.
A. I now realise it is not possible.
Or
B.It was never about herd immunity. it was always about maximum immunity.

Ginger n Lemon

Xertz wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

As yet, we don't really know what the situation with the Irish economy is. As the restrictions lift, it's quite probably that you'll see a rapid shift back to employment again for most people. So, there'll be an impact, but how pronounced and how long that will be is unclear.

The fundamentals of the Irish economy were very strong going into this and not much has changed in that regard. There'll be a big bang for the hospitality industry and tourism, but in terms of tourism, we are actually one of the least dependent on those revenues as a part of our GNI or GDP, so overall the impact of that will be relatively light and regionalised.

I wouldn't necessarily start a major doom fest about Ireland just yet. A very large part of the economy also was not subject to any significant lockdown. Many businesses, particularly in the services, tech and manufacturing side of things have been working away as normal, with modifications.

When construction for example goes back on stream, it's likely to go quite fully back.

Retail will struggle for a time.

Then you've got the domestic, EU and ECB stimulus packages which may well push things back into line quite fast.

The bigger risk both here and in Sweden is actually the global economy and slumping demand and Ireland's particularly exposed to what happens in the US and UK, and neither of those places have handled it very well due to political instability.

Sweden may have taken a different approach to us, but the common ground between the two places has been pragmatic, sensible politics and very pragmatic populations, while different, both also have strong social democratic structures and supports too, so I can't see things being allowed to go to the wall in either place.

The US is quite special at the moment though and I think there's a huge risk of economic chaos driven by a refusal deal with the problem or treating a virus as a political foe instead of a scientific issue. It really is a remarkable era of American politics and for all the wrong reasons.

The countries I would really worry about though are the developing ones that will not have been able to get a grip on this at all. That's likely to also cause all sorts of global economic and social chaos in the months ahead, and we are all going to feel that.

It seems like we can make an good estimate how Irish economy will be.

Chair of fiscal advisory council isnt making any bets on quick economy rebound, hope you dont mind higher taxes or working a bit longer as it seems retirement age of 66 is a suspect to increase

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/reality-bites-watchdog-warns-on-tax-hikes-and-pension-age-as-recession-kicks-in-39194085.html

"The next government will have to consider tax hikes and spending cuts to deliver an economic recovery, the State's budget watchdog has warned.

With unemployment close to 30pc and the cost of the State's emergency measures now at over €13bn and rising, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Greens are this weekend being told to reconsider the "very risky" proposal to keep the pension age at 66, as well as look at increases in property and inheritance taxes in programme for government talks."

There ll be something very ironic if their stay at home 350 eur payments carry on to save the elderly ends up increasing retirement age.


Wonder what Swedens budget for 2021 will look like though

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

If your strategy was herd immunity, your only strategy, and you realise from the numbers it was not possible, what would you say when questioned.
A. I now realise it is not possible.
Or
B.It was never about herd immunity. it was always about maximum immunity.

You should write them a stiff memo, given your apparent objection to any level of immunity.

Bit cynical

Even if there's not much data about the current virus, I think the general expectation among experts is that there is likely to be some form of immunity from having contracted Covid-19 and recovered. How long, whether it is a matter of months, years or decades is not yet known. However also not known, of course, is when a vaccine will be available and how effective that will be when and if it eventually comes.

This is why, although the Swedish approach seems totally at odds with other countries, we should not rush to write it off just yet.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

It seems like we can make an good estimate how Irish economy will be.

Chair of fiscal advisory council isnt making any bets on quick economy rebound, hope you dont mind higher taxes or working a bit longer as it seems retirement age of 66 is a suspect to increase

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/reality-bites-watchdog-warns-on-tax-hikes-and-pension-age-as-recession-kicks-in-39194085.html

"The next government will have to consider tax hikes and spending cuts to deliver an economic recovery, the State's budget watchdog has warned.

With unemployment close to 30pc and the cost of the State's emergency measures now at over €13bn and rising, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Greens are this weekend being told to reconsider the "very risky" proposal to keep the pension age at 66, as well as look at increases in property and inheritance taxes in programme for government talks."

There ll be something very ironic if their stay at home 350 eur payments carry on to save the elderly ends up increasing retirement age.


Wonder what Swedens budget for 2021 will look like though

As you are well aware Sweden`s own Central Bank predictions for 2020 GDP best case scenario is no better than others in Europe whose strategy was lockdown.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

You should write them a stiff memo, given your apparent objection to any level of immunity.

I have no problem with immunity.

Just with posters who were cheerleaders for Sweden`s strategy over ours in that it would give them herd immunity but who now realising it is not possible due to the figures, (similar to Sweden) are saying it was never about herd immunity.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

As you are well aware Sweden`s own Central Bank predictions for 2020 GDP best case scenario is no better than others in Europe whose strategy was lockdown.

Are you saying that every country will increase income tax and raise retirement age?

My friend I dont know if you are working or not, but I dont think you fully understand what below article entails.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/reality-bites-watchdog-warns-on-tax-hikes-and-pension-age-as-recession-kicks-in-39194085.html

We have imposed a lockdown to protect elderly. Now we might be increasing retirement age to 68 or even 70 depending how severely we damage our economy until 10th of August. Does this not sound like a horrible way to take care of our elderly?

biko

So what is the Swedish strategy then?
According to the guru himself

Tegnell believes that the contrast between Sweden and the rest of the world has been overstated.
"Like everyone else, we intend to slow down the spread of the virus to such an extent that the healthcare system and society won't collapse. Plus, protect our senior citizens," he said.

"The Swedish strategy is mainly based on voluntary cooperation and individual responsibility," he said.

Herd immunity is not part of our strategy, he said, but it is one of the results.

Taking Sweden's neighbours' coronavirus curves into consideration, does Tegnell still think his strategy has worked out as intended?
The honest answer, he said, is both ‘yes' and ‘no'.

The answer is really 'no' and 'no', imo
https://www.thelocal.se/20200425/why-is-swedens-corona-strategy-so-different-from-the-rest-of-europe

robinbird

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Are you saying that every country will increase income tax and raise retirement age?

My friend I dont know if you are working or not, but I dont think you fully understand what below article entails.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/reality-bites-watchdog-warns-on-tax-hikes-and-pension-age-as-recession-kicks-in-39194085.html

We have imposed a lockdown to protect elderly. Now we might be increasing retirement age to 68 or even 70 depending how severely we damage our economy until 10th of August. Does this not sound like a horrible way to take care of our elderly?

Seems a bit counterintuitive. If there is a recession and higher unemployment why force 66 year olds to stay working longer.

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

I have no problem with immunity.

Just with posters who were cheerleaders for Sweden`s strategy over ours in that it would give them herd immunity but who now realising it is not possible due to the figures, (similar to Sweden) are saying it was never about herd immunity.

That's big of you. Now you might have the generosity not to put words in the mouths of those with whom you disagree, or to selectively misrepresent their position.
This thread actually is about Swedish policy, in all its nuance, conditionality and uncertainty. I hope it works, and shows us a better way to do things as we wait for an effective vaccine or treatment.

Ginger n Lemon

robinbird wrote: »

Seems a bit counterintuitive. If there is a recession and higher unemployment why force 66 year olds to stay working longer.

Government doesnt want to pay out state pensions. It costs money, which we clearly will have very little of.

If you are working until 70 etc you A) pay more tax as u work, government doesnt pay you state pension.

1 side is winning greatly.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Just with posters who were cheerleaders for Sweden`s strategy over ours in that it would give them herd immunity but who now realising it is not possible due to the figures, (similar to Sweden) are saying it was never about herd immunity.

Some definitions of herd immunity say that it is reached when the R figure drops below 1 without any other measures in place, i.e., the disease no longer progresses even when the country is back to normal with now measures.

However immunity still plays a part even if it is lower than the classic herd immunity level as defined above. If a country is implementing some form of social distancing even without a full lockdown then this, combined with some level of immunity below the classic level, will drive down the infection rate.

See paper by Tom Britten and others:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.03085.pdf

It is not either/or; the strategy of social distance as implemented in Sweden combined with immunity is what is important, though, of course, there is still some uncertainty as to the strength of immunity after recovery.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Are you saying that every country will increase income tax and raise retirement age?

My friend I dont know if you are working or not, but I dont think you fully understand what below article entails.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/reality-bites-watchdog-warns-on-tax-hikes-and-pension-age-as-recession-kicks-in-39194085.html

We have imposed a lockdown to protect elderly. Now we might be increasing retirement age to 68 or even 70 depending how severely we damage our economy until 10th of August. Does this not sound like a horrible way to take care of our elderly?

When it comes to budgets I don`t think you fully understand GDP.


You do not appear to know a lot about Irish state pensions either.
To qualify for a state pension the retirement age here is now 66.
Due to rise to 67 next year and to 68 2028. All legislated for before Covid-19.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Some definitions of herd immunity say that it is reached when the R figure drops below 1 without any other measures in place, i.e., the disease no longer progresses even when the country is back to normal with now measures.

However immunity still plays a part even if it is lower than the classic herd immunity level as defined above. If a country is implementing some form of social distancing even without a full lockdown then this, combined with some level of immunity below the classic level, will drive down the infection rate.

See paper by Tom Britten and others:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.03085.pdf

It is not either/or; the strategy of social distance as implemented in Sweden combined with immunity is what is important, though, of course, there is still some uncertainty as to the strength of immunity after recovery.

Tegnell`s estimation for those with immunity two days ago was 25%. And that was just for Stockholm with only 20% of their population, but 50% of their infected cases.


On those figures with them having a Ro under 1 it would be as credible from your post for Ireland to claim herd immunity as Sweden. And nobody in Ireland is even suggesting that.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

When it comes to budgets I don`t think you fully understand GDP.


You do not appear to know a lot about Irish state pensions either.
To qualify for a state pension the retirement age here is now 66.
Due to rise to 67 next year and to 68 2028. All legislated for before Covid-19.

What a way to answer the question :D:D

Good luck figuring out herd immunity, its been noted good few times you are not there yet.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

What a way to answer the question :D:D

Good luck figuring out herd immunity, its been noted good few times you are not there yet.

Well you obviously have not the remotest idea on the relevance of GDP on budgets, and the qualifying age for Irish state pensions was legislated years before Covid-19 appeared.


Herd immunity is a statistic possibility depending on the numbers, and from what Sweden have said of late, the numbers just are not there.


God luck with your attempted switch from herd immunity to economics to justify your belief in Sweden`s strategy.Gotta say, it`s not going great though .:D

wakka12

https://covid19-projections.com/

Swedens deaths projected to be double Ireland's per capita by August 1st, and the second highest in Europe after Belgium

Diarmuid

wakka12 wrote: »

https://covid19-projections.com/

Swedens deaths projected to be double Ireland's per capita by August 1st, and the second highest in Europe after Belgium

LOL. The error bars on the Swedish projects range from 6 to 160. I suspect they are not very confident of their predictions

Beasty

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

It's not being made public for now.

If something is not being made public for now, why post about it here?

Do not respond here. Take it to PM if you have any questions

biko

Diarmuid wrote: »

LOL. The error bars on the Swedish projects range from 6 to 160. I suspect they are not very confident of their predictions

To clarify what I think Diarmuid try to say - 6-160 deaths per day.

https://covid19-projections.com/sweden
That's the thing with models like this, they account best scenario and worst scenario.
If Sweden manages really well then deaths per day will decrease.

Compare to neighbour Norway - at worst 2 deaths per day in August.

Sweden's very best scenario is three times as bad as Norway's very worst - and these countries are as close as siblings.

niallo27

wakka12 wrote: »

https://covid19-projections.com/

Swedens deaths projected to be double Ireland's per capita by August 1st, and the second highest in Europe after Belgium

Its not double, its 3k more. I work with machine learning, the data is too diverse right now to have any reliability. Its impossible to predict how the easing of restrictions will affect us.

wakka12

niallo27 wrote: »

Its not double, its 3k more. I work with machine learning, the data is too diverse right now to have any reliability. Its impossible to predict how the easing of restrictions will affect us.

What are you looking at? The mean prediction for Sweden is 5.5k more deaths than Ireland

And the guy saying the error bars are 6 and 160, thats for one day, the 1st of August, the further day away on the model. You literally picked the absolute most extreme example possible to try and make it look bad. Of course it is uncertain, but they have a good track record so far. You will also find that every model ever created will have a median, high and low prediction that differ quite drastically from one another.