Sweden avoiding lockdown

biko

What is surprising is how low the numbers in Sweden are considering they had big shows go ahead after the infection was spreading.

In mid-March, when the limit of gatherings was introduced and set to 500 people,
then Swedish comedian Jonas Gardell still went touring but limited the audience allowed to 499 people - and refused refunds to people that was afraid to go.

The Euro song content Swedish final went ahead with over 30000 attendees. Sick people were asked to stay home.
In other countries events like that were all cancelled.

tobefrank321

KyussB wrote: »

You're wrong about that as well - potentially up to a quarter of deaths are among people under 65, depending on country - and cocooning doesn't work for much of the elderly, it still leads to nursing homes turning into morgues.

The elderly are already partially excluded from hospital treatment as well - so you've still got upwards of a billion people to cram through the worlds hospitals in 6 months - which is practically impossible without massively spiking health service capacity, that massively increases death rates.

You're obviously not fact checking a single thing you're saying - you think people not cocooning will be fine and everything - you're getting basic facts wrong.

In your example - it was not my example, it was yours - it's impossible to infect everyone at the same time, so no - you're wrong - not everyone will be immune after 6 months, because people continuously catch it who have not had it before, all the way through those 6 months - and with herd immunity lasting only 6 months, those who caught it at the beginning will be ready to catch it all over again.

You're just repeating the same basic mistakes again, that I already explained to you.


Right now, the only way to resolve this is to replicate what some Asian countries have done - and bring new cases down close to Zero - with strict containment of new cases thereafter (likely with rolling, regional lockdowns). Without a vaccine, that's the only option.

Not working so well for Singapore, China, South Korea, Germany, etc. They've seen an inevitable rise once restrictions have been lifted, and despite months of lockdown, a week or two after restrictions are lifted, its almost like lockdown never happened.

I outlined the best way for herd immunity to work if immunity is limited to 6 months - so far no-one has been reinfected. For all we know it could last 6 months, or it could last 2-3 years.

People like you consistently post there is no evidence of long term immunity yet also consistently fail to produce a single reinfection example.

So, we are already up to 6 months- we are already into long term immunity territory.

The day they find a reinfection, we can reassess the situation. I look forward to revisiting this with you.

I've already outlined how herd immunity works in an ideal example if we go with immunity lasting 6 months. If everyone is infected and recovered before the 6 months is up, there are no new infections. The R0, that all important number is reduced to 0. No new susceptible hosts for a month or two - R0 therefore 0. Therefore eliminated (as long as they keep it out of the country).

It was actually another poster who said you don't need to eliminate it completely, not me.

Finally, the vaccine you are basing your hopes on - you realise that many vaccines we've had for decades are often no more than 70% effective.

You think we are going to come up with a 100% effective vaccine for this when we've struggled to achieve that for other more common vaccines?

And that's before you consider the ethnics of subjecting younger people to a rushed vaccine for an illness whose side effects in most cases will be minimal. In other words the cure could well be far worse than the sickness.

sydthebeat

Deleted User wrote: »

At the beginning of our 'lockdown measures' it was all about flattening the curve.

Sweden, at this stage, seems to have, if not flattened it, at least kept it fairly low.

Therefore I would say their strategy has been a success. They wont have to wait until July to open anything.

Only time will tell how the death rate in the elderly will eventually balance against other countries.

it would seems part of swedens strategy to "flatten the curve" was to do minimal testing, therefore not accounting for the real number of cases...

and also to do minimal testing of deaths (testing only hospital deaths and not community deaths) so therefore artificially keeping the death figures down.

they have also had a worse nursing home experience than we have had.

biko

Drumpot wrote: »

They aren’t declaring a lot of their deaths either. Countries are cynically fudging numbers as it suits them.

Sweden or any other country can't hide deaths as every death is counted somehow.

The calculation will be a bit shaky as normal deaths will decrease because people stay at home. For instance deaths in Swedish traffic in March halved.

GreeBo

Wompa1 wrote: »

What does herd immunity really do? It deprives the virus of new hosts since most people it will come in contact with will have immunity.

It only does this if immunity means you cant also be a carrier.
Maybe its like herpes where most people carry it forever without any impact?

GreeBo

biko wrote: »

Sweden or any other country can't hide deaths as every death is counted somehow.

The calculation will be a bit shaky as normal deaths will decrease because people stay at home. For instance deaths in Swedish traffic in March halved.

I posted them earlier, their death numbers are up significantly more than their "confirmed covid-19 deaths"

BIGT4464

plodder wrote: »

Seems they made the right call in keeping children under 16 at school.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0513/1138100-hiqa-coronavirus-review/

WOW even RTE are reporting it.

VillageIdiot71

Mike3287 wrote: »

How is he wrong

Economy will recover, always does

The point is the human impact of the collapse and recovery. Lots of damage on peoples lives, up to and including deaths (given that shouting 'deaths' is the favoured approach to avoid contemplating the real damage caused).

"Economy" isn't some disconnected thing. Its what enables children to have good futures, people to get good healthcare, old people to receive good pensions.

And the collapse will hit all of those things.

VillageIdiot71

BIGT4464 wrote: »

WOW even RTE are reporting it.

The line might be changing.

seamus

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

That's hugely arrogant complacency on your part.

Actually a denial of the impacts we will shortly be dealing with, with a double helping of shroud waving on top.

Simplistic, perhaps, but a statement of fact.

Economically, we're about to have a pretty sh1t decade that by all accounts should start to turn around pretty quick, but I'm not expecting anything to improve until 2025 on.

If I appear complacent about it, it's because I haven't pinned my self-worth on my career or bank balance, and I've been through a serious recession in the recent past.

So I'm not all that concerned that for the foreseeable future I may not be able to take foreign holidays, will have to limit my pub trips, or will have to find time to do a lot more DIY than I have done before because I can't afford to pay for new stuff or pay a builder.

What's important is that my family will still be around for me to enjoy it with.

We're all in this together. Prioritising the economy over lives will mean the wealthiest people will get to keep their bank balance healthy while many others have to deal with the double-whammy of economic depression and loss of family members.

Kermit.de.frog

Sweden reports 147 new deaths.

wow that's not good at this stage!

Kermit.de.frog

Sweden reports 147 new deaths.

Bit cynical

Wompa1 wrote: »

What does herd immunity really do? It deprives the virus of new hosts since most people it will come in contact with will have immunity.

Getting the reproduction rate down through lockdown and social distancing achieves the same with fewer deaths.

Not really because lockdowns only protect while the lockdown is in force. Lift the lockdown and infections rise again. The advantage, however, is that fewer people contract the disease early on.

There's a lot to be said for lockdowns. If a good tested vaccine was already in existence then a lockdown would be a nobrainer in the months it would take to manufacture and administer the vaccine. Impose the lockdown, administer the vaccine, lift the lockdown. But the vaccine does not exist yet and we don't know when it will exist, whether it will be safe or how good it will be. All the doubts over herd immunity are also valid for vaccines with the additional problem that the vaccine is not available.

The problem now facing European countries is that they are being forced to relax restrictions without much immunity, the dilemma Sweden has had to face will now be faced by other countries. Will a higher rate of deaths need to be tolerated for the sake of a functioning society or will restrictions need to be reimposed?

I think what will happen is that a certain level of compromise will be reached, like in Sweden. The balance will be different in each country depending on demographic, health system capacity and so forth.

sydthebeat

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sweden reports 147 new deaths.

wow that's not good at this stage!

they are clearing the backlog from the weekend.... remember on sunday they only reported 5 deaths

they are averaging at about 60-70 per day over the last 3 weeks... and there is little sign of that number significantly dropping anytime soon.

they are adding to their historic figures daily.

seamus

Sweden's problem is that backlog in reporting. Deaths are reporting in a chain from doctor to administrative area, to division to the national team, or something like that.

So there's a delay in collating the data first off, but they also traditionally don't file the data during weekends and other days off. So any deaths between lunchtime on Friday and Monday morning may not get reported to the national team for a few days.

I'm sure they're tearing their hair out over it too.

biko

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

The point is the human impact of the collapse and recovery. Lots of damage on peoples lives, up to and including deaths (given that shouting 'deaths' is the favoured approach to avoid contemplating the real damage caused).

"Economy" isn't some disconnected thing. Its what enables children to have good futures, people to get good healthcare, old people to receive good pensions.

And the collapse will hit all of those things.

“We know how to bring the economy back to life.
What we do not know is how to bring people back to life.
We will, therefore, protect people’s lives, then their livelihoods.”

Nana Akufo-Addo
President of the Republic of Ghana

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

as a continuation as to how sweden are historically adding to their daily numbers:

28th April, originally reported at 34, now 66

29th April, originally 26, now 66

update on this

28th April, originally reported at 34, now 74

29th April, originally 26, now 80

plodder

plodder wrote: »

There are obviously reporting differences between countries, and maybe some massaging of figures, but you can't hide deaths generally. So, figures based on excess mortality might be better ways to compare countries. On that basis, Sweden is not too bad. They have accounted 81% to Covid-19 as compared with E&W 71%, Spain 78%, Germany 73% but France 92%, according to this:

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/understanding-excess-mortality-the-fairest-way-to-make-international-comparisons

No figure for Ireland above, but would be very interesting to find out.

I saw some data that I now cant find that suggests after accounting for all Covid-19 deaths that we have fewer deaths

the incredible pudding

sydthebeat wrote: »

they are clearing the backlog from the weekend.... remember on sunday they only reported 5 deaths

they are averaging at about 60-70 per day over the last 3 weeks... and there is little sign of that number significantly dropping anytime soon.

they are adding to their historic figures daily.

Yeah the reported numbers are hard to graph or take much away from. Certain cases such as deaths outside of hospitals where the cause is known with absolute certainty are often added retrospectively a week later so you only get a clear picture after a longer period of time (weekend figures being written off and added to Monday retrospectively) and as mentioned, testing rates are still low (though there are plans to ramp up significantly). Elderly people aren't put into nursing homes here unless they're completely unable to take care of themselves though it seems the government completely messed up the situation by not enforcing rules there and sending very mixed messages in March around going into work even if you're partner is sick.

Numbers in the ICU are dropping thankfully - from a peak of around 500 to 420 yesterday.

Someone misreported earlier that they're enforcing cocooning here but that's not true at all, it's just been recommended - I've seen plenty of very elderly people walking around the parks or going through the shops. But the people here are still mostly happy with how it's progressing going by the local news. Expats like myself and a lot of my colleagues are a bit bewildered by it all - I was expecting Stockholm to wind up like Bergamo but so far thankfully that hasn't happened and doesn't look to be happening, though the numbers are still grim and incredibly sad.

There's a reliance here on common sense and self regulation that you just don't really see in other countries, it's odd. What they're doing here wouldn't work in Ireland that's for absolutely certain, for cultural and social reasons as well as the quality of the public services here.

People keep talking about herd immunity here but the main message that the government have been really is that they're trying to adopt something that might be sustainable for a much longer time, that shutting down and then reopening later would cause the same numbers in the long run and for what. From speaking to locals here, they say numbers are down hugely in terms of general activity and mobile data has backed that up.
I have no idea if it's the right approach, nobody does and nobody will until months and months down the road when things hopefully calms down.

KyussB

Breezin wrote: »

From the HIQA document:

The poster was positing a hypothetical scenario, where immunity lasts 6 months.

tobefrank321

plodder wrote: »

Seems they made the right call in keeping children under 16 at school.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0513/1138100-hiqa-coronavirus-review/

You'd wonder what a similar study would show for u20s?

IF it showed a similar low risk of spreading infection, there is no question the Leaving Cert should go ahead in its original form.

VillageIdiot71

seamus wrote: »

Simplistic, perhaps, but a statement of fact.

Economically, we're about to have a pretty sh1t decade that by all accounts should start to turn around pretty quick, but I'm not expecting anything to improve until 2025 on.

If I appear complacent about it, it's because I haven't pinned my self-worth on my career or bank balance, and I've been through a serious recession in the recent past.

So I'm not all that concerned that for the foreseeable future I may not be able to take foreign holidays, will have to limit my pub trips, or will have to find time to do a lot more DIY than I have done before because I can't afford to pay for new stuff or pay a builder.

What's important is that my family will still be around for me to enjoy it with.

We're all in this together. Prioritising the economy over lives will mean the wealthiest people will get to keep their bank balance healthy while many others have to deal with the double-whammy of economic depression and loss of family members.

Simplistic statements of fact usually leave out the pertinent point. And your simplistic statements follow that standard.

So instead of talking about the actual human costs, and who will bear them, you talk about bank balances.

You are not a stupid person. You know you are being dishonest. I'll leave it there.

biko

27909 cases
3460 dead
12.4% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

KyussB

tobefrank321 wrote: »

...

You never checked any of those countries stats, did you? China and South Korea are recovered and not having large outbreaks - they are using regional lockdowns, exactly as I described, to limit new cases when they are detected.

You did not outline any way to make herd immunity work with 6 months immunity - you just displayed a lack of knowledge that infection spreads are continuous, not all at once, and lack of comprehension of the raw number of people that would to be infected in such a short time, relative to hospital capacity to deal with them.

You seem to think everyone can be infected at once - which is impossible.

I haven't said anything about a vaccine - there may never be a vaccine, for all we know.

tobefrank321

sydthebeat wrote: »

they are clearing the backlog from the weekend.... remember on sunday they only reported 5 deaths

they are averaging at about 60-70 per day over the last 3 weeks... and there is little sign of that number significantly dropping anytime soon.

they are adding to their historic figures daily.

Don't expect any positive news or low numbers to be posted by some posters or any caveats with the high numbers.

tobefrank321

KyussB wrote: »

You never checked any of those countries stats, did you? China and South Korea are recovered and not having large outbreaks - they are using regional lockdowns, exactly as I described, to limit new cases when they are detected.

You did not outline any way to make herd immunity work with 6 months immunity - you just displayed a lack of knowledge that infection spreads are continuous, not all at once, and lack of comprehension of the raw number of people that would to be infected in such a short time, relative to hospital capacity to deal with them.

You seem to think everyone can be infected at once - which is impossible.

I haven't said anything about a vaccine - there may never be a vaccine, for all we know.

Nope, for the purposes of illustration in reply to a different poster, who seemed to believe for herd immunity to work, you have to be immune for years, I hypothetically supposed everyone was infected at once. It was not intended as a real world example.

In the real world, people do not get infected at once. The spread can be slow or fast depending on the R0 value.

As for a vaccine, its a pity there isn't a vaccine thread. I've looked but can't find one. I'd have doubts a vaccine is possible or achievable in the next year. The ethics around a rushed vaccine would be highly question. I'm in favour of vaccinations but even I would be reluctant to take a vaccine that had only a couple months of human trial data underpinning it. And I wouldn't be the only one.

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

At the beginning of our 'lockdown measures' it was all about flattening the curve.

Sweden, at this stage, seems to have, if not flattened it, at least kept it fairly low.

Therefore I would say their strategy has been a success. They wont have to wait until July to open anything.

Only time will tell how the death rate in the elderly will eventually balance against other countries.

That curve is not looking too flat today.

Today is their 4th highest for deaths, and that includes at least two dates just three weeks ago where they added historical cases to bring them up to date.
The conventional wisdom here was that the percentage of deaths to confirmed cases would drop from where it was two weeks ago. If anything at 12.4% it has risen.

Bridge93

sydthebeat wrote: »

it would seems part of swedens strategy to "flatten the curve" was to do minimal testing, therefore not accounting for the real number of cases...

and also to do minimal testing of deaths (testing only hospital deaths and not community deaths) so therefore artificially keeping the death figures down.

they have also had a worse nursing home experience than we have had.

If their care home outbreak/mortality is even more or less identical to ourselves that would be roughly another 2,000 deaths not being reported

tobefrank321

sydthebeat wrote: »

it would seems part of swedens strategy to "flatten the curve" was to do minimal testing, therefore not accounting for the real number of cases...

and also to do minimal testing of deaths (testing only hospital deaths and not community deaths) so therefore artificially keeping the death figures down.

they have also had a worse nursing home experience than we have had.

They include nursing home deaths.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200510-sweden-admits-failure-to-protect-elderly-in-care-homes

Yet 90 percent of those who had died as of April 28 were over the age of 70. Half were nursing home residents, and another quarter were receiving care at home, statistics from the Swedish Board of Health and Welfare show.

Sweden's nursing home experience almost exactly mirrors our own. In other words, lockdown or no lockdown, it was similar.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They include nursing home deaths.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200510-sweden-admits-failure-to-protect-elderly-in-care-homes



Sweden's nursing home experience almost exactly mirrors our own. In other words, lockdown or no lockdown, it was similar.

From that link, their top priority was shielding those 70 and older, yet 90% of those that died from Covid-19 were 70 or older.

If that`s what the top priority of their strategy is it`s been a dismal failure.
What the rest of that strategy is at this stage looks to be anybody`s guess.