Sweden avoiding lockdown

Drumpot

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They include nursing home deaths.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200510-sweden-admits-failure-to-protect-elderly-in-care-homes



Sweden's nursing home experience almost exactly mirrors our own. In other words, lockdown or no lockdown, it was similar.

I’d say over the coming months we will see countries trying to adopt different approaches.

Fundamentally I agree with Ireland’s more cautious approach of locking everything up at the start. I will always think Sweden’s strategy was more dangerous regardless of the outcome because it was less about slowing down the spread which is dangerous when so little is relatively known about the virus.

However, as the evidence stacks up I’d be happy for Ireland to amend their strategy. I’d prefer they don’t lie or misrepresent or twist information to make certain strategies palatable although I won’t hold my breath.

This includes strategies with regards to pubs, sports events, schools reopening and international travel. I’d say for every example of where these are not so bad at spreading the virus there could be information that would say to the contrary.

I really think it’s hard for us all to grasp how early it is on this disease. If you listened to Fauci yesterday you would hear a scientist trying to be factual and his words being twisted to try and justify opening stuff up. I will tell you what I know to be factually true:

- we aren’t sure fully why different countries Have such different issues with the virus
- we dont know what the long term effects this virus has on people, this includes people who may have shorter lives as a direct result of COVID
- we don’t know how long people have immunity
- we don’t have a cure
- we don’t know Who most of the people in the world who have had it
- we don’t know if there will be a worse wave but it’s more likely to happen in the winter and will be determined by how we respond and manage it

I’m sure there’s other stuff, but it’s easy for us to hypothesise how we think things will go and as such what’s the best strategy but in many regards we are effectively blind. Medical people keep saying that the virus can affect and attack Different parts of the body. Imagine the secondry deaths, weeks later (like children now showing up in hospitals) double or treble the mortality rate.

In a couple of years time some countries will look much better then others but right now there’s no certainty whatever strategy is chosen.. Who knows maybe Ireland will , as a very cautious country, look like they managed it better.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

From that link, their top priority was shielding those 70 and older, yet 90% of those that died from Covid-19 were 70 or older.

If that`s what the top priority of their strategy is it`s been a dismal failure.
What the rest of that strategy is at this stage looks to be anybody`s guess.

Our strategy hasn't been much better to be fair. We have a similar percentage of deaths in nursing homes, and a similar number per capita, also rendering ours a dismal failure.

The inability of any country to foresee a problem with nursing homes boggles the mind. I know hindsight is great, but people are paid a lot of money in health servies to have a small bit of foresight.

Drumpot

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Our strategy hasn't been much better to be fair. We have a similar percentage of deaths in nursing homes, and a similar number per capita, so also rendering ours a dismal failure.

The inability of any country to foresee a problem with nursing homes boggles the mind. I know hindsight is great, but people are paid a lot of money in health servies to have a small bit of foresight.

Yeh, this is an awful indictment of us all. It also reflects a lot of attitudes (f**k the elders) of a fair few.

jesus_thats_gre

One of my best friends live in Sweden and seems to think that there could be something in the climate theory. Isn't an expert my any means so not suggesting this is conclusive by any means.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800



https://www.umaryland.edu/news/archived-news/march-2020/researchers-predict-potential-spread-and-seasonality-for-covid-19-.php

Have obviously spoken to him extensively about the respective situations in Sweden and Ireland. He is somewhat bemused by the Swedish numbers and can't quite put on his finger on why things aren't dramatically worse there. It's obviously working to a degree and he is happy to be avoiding a strict lockdown.

Saying that, he goes to great length to emphasise how relieved he is that his parents (late 60's) are in Ireland.

Breezin

the incredible pudding wrote: »

There's a reliance here on common sense and self regulation that you just don't really see in other countries, it's odd. What they're doing here wouldn't work in Ireland that's for absolutely certain, for cultural and social reasons as well as the quality of the public services here.

The first part of that is arguable, and has been leveraged by the CMO and the Government in shaming us into a hard lockdown. We're just not capable of behaving ourselves, even in an emergency, and that applies collectively, not just to the usual suspects, whether on beaches or at funerals.
The second part is, I believe, the fundamental underlying reason for our continued sad and brutal lockdown. Our health service was a disgrace and couldn't support a measured approach. We are paying for that now.

Breezin

Incidentally, why are there two Sweden threads that seem to have similar focus?

Roger_007

Breezin wrote: »

Incidentally, why are there two Sweden threads that seem to have similar focus?

It’s in order to implement social distancing for posters.;)

Breezin

Roger_007 wrote: »

It’s in order to implement social distancing for posters.;)

But so many are already immune to rational debate!

wakka12

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

One of my best friends live in Sweden and seems to think that there could be something in the climate theory. Isn't an expert my any means so not suggesting this is conclusive by any means.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800



https://www.umaryland.edu/news/archived-news/march-2020/researchers-predict-potential-spread-and-seasonality-for-covid-19-.php

Have obviously spoken to him extensively about the respective situations in Sweden and Ireland. He is somewhat bemused by the Swedish numbers and can't quite put on his finger on why things aren't dramatically worse there. It's obviously working to a degree and he is happy to be avoiding a strict lockdown.

Saying that, he goes to great length to emphasise how relieved he is that his parents (late 60's) are in Ireland.

Yes the climate theory I think has more stock to it now that things picked up so quickly in Brazil as it entered winter season

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Our strategy hasn't been much better to be fair. We have a similar percentage of deaths in nursing homes, and a similar number per capita, also rendering ours a dismal failure.

The inability of any country to foresee a problem with nursing homes boggles the mind. I know hindsight is great, but people are paid a lot of money in health servies to have a small bit of foresight.

When it comes to strategy,there is little to compare.


We may not have been much better when it came to nursing homes, but at least we were trying to stop the spread of the virus. If nursing homes, were as that link says, the main aim of there strategy, then whatever excuse there is for our authorities it is difficult to see any for theirs.

ElTel

charlie14 wrote: »

When it comes to strategy,there is little to compare.


We may not have been much better when it came to nursing homes, but at least we were trying to stop the spread of the virus. If nursing homes, were as that link says, the main aim of there strategy, then whatever excuse there is for our authorities it is difficult to see any for theirs.

According to this article from early April, 25% of the population were born abroad.
I knew they had taken in a lot of refugees and have a progressive immigration policy but that figure surprised me.

I can't find a breakdown of deaths by ethnicity but the suggestion is that the minority groups are over-represented in the death stats.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sweden-coronavirus-minorities_n_5e8dfba3c5b670b4330a3977?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20vc2VhcmNoP3E9YnJlYWtkb3duK29mK3N3ZWRlbitjb3ZpZDE5K2RlYXRocyZmb3JtPUVETlRIVCZta3Q9ZW4tdXMmaHR0cHNtc249MSZtc25ld3M9MSZyZWNfc2VhcmNoPTEmcGx2YXI9MCZyZWZpZz00YmNlOTE4ZDQwZmM0ZGIzOGVhZjU3MmIwN2ZlNDljZiZzcD0tMSZnaGM9MSZwcT1icmVha2Rvd24rb2Yrc3dlZGVuK2NvdmlkMTkrZGVhdGhzJnNjPTAtMzQmcXM9biZzaz0mY3ZpZD00YmNlOTE4ZDQwZmM0ZGIzOGVhZjU3MmIwN2ZlNDljZg&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIKSV77XizfKDR5Cn12onDV7LIewzn9BEP89iXxGT_Tn9m3-PqVMzGpSs11aVuvmySuFKG7uBRXfvPbVxlh73k9maMT_uLwOjmvFxh-12Nfr4u9ktCxZfyBfUU-VtjmNSy1JVeruip-GDjwBlCdYLIRBxFhwbPxQLveYhOWu9zR7

Glenbhoy

Bridge93 wrote: »

If their care home outbreak/mortality is even more or less identical to ourselves that would be roughly another 2,000 deaths not being reported

I believe they made a point of how there numbers included all community deaths and iirc they pointed to deaths in nursing homes as being the factor which pushed them out of line from the other scandi countries.
I am happy to be corrected though, just reporting what I found when I looked into what seems like a relatively low death rate.

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

From that link, their top priority was shielding those 70 and older, yet 90% of those that died from Covid-19 were 70 or older.

If that`s what the top priority of their strategy is it`s been a dismal failure.
What the rest of that strategy is at this stage looks to be anybody`s guess.

It's rather a leap to say that it was a top priority of their strategy. Read in context, it is much more reasonable to interpret it as their top priority in relation to that sector.
Swedish candour on the mess they made in care homes is in contrast to the fudge that the Irish public has been treated to, where our care homes also have been a disaster. We have no reason to be smug on that.
Another point brought out in that article, and in others quoting Tegnell, is that much fewer people go to care homes in Sweden, so that those who are there are more vulnerable than in other states.

tobefrank321

ElTel wrote: »

According to this article from early April, 25% of the population were born abroad.
I knew they had taken in a lot of refugees and have a progressive immigration policy but that figure surprised me.

I can't find a breakdown of deaths by ethnicity but the suggestion is that the minority groups are over-represented in the death stats.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sweden-coronavirus-minorities_n_5e8dfba3c5b670b4330a3977?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20vc2VhcmNoP3E9YnJlYWtkb3duK29mK3N3ZWRlbitjb3ZpZDE5K2RlYXRocyZmb3JtPUVETlRIVCZta3Q9ZW4tdXMmaHR0cHNtc249MSZtc25ld3M9MSZyZWNfc2VhcmNoPTEmcGx2YXI9MCZyZWZpZz00YmNlOTE4ZDQwZmM0ZGIzOGVhZjU3MmIwN2ZlNDljZiZzcD0tMSZnaGM9MSZwcT1icmVha2Rvd24rb2Yrc3dlZGVuK2NvdmlkMTkrZGVhdGhzJnNjPTAtMzQmcXM9biZzaz0mY3ZpZD00YmNlOTE4ZDQwZmM0ZGIzOGVhZjU3MmIwN2ZlNDljZg&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIKSV77XizfKDR5Cn12onDV7LIewzn9BEP89iXxGT_Tn9m3-PqVMzGpSs11aVuvmySuFKG7uBRXfvPbVxlh73k9maMT_uLwOjmvFxh-12Nfr4u9ktCxZfyBfUU-VtjmNSy1JVeruip-GDjwBlCdYLIRBxFhwbPxQLveYhOWu9zR7

Like us, Sweden appear to have been completely blindsided by various at risk categories - nursing homes, care homes and those who are cared for at home by carers. Clearly like us the PPE situation wasn't good.

Also like us they've been blind sided by issues with ethnic minorities who are more inclined to live together in large groups and also direct provision centres and also inclined to work as carers, cleaners, or in nursing homes. Also more inclined to work in meat factories and the like.

Had both Sweden and Ireland dealt with these issues, both would be in a much better position.

Nermal

Lockdowns cost.

https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1260482683936915456

Harry Palmr

Just thought I'd compile a few number by way of comparison, I appreciate people will pick and mix as they see fit citing population profile, density etc.

worldometers.info stats

Sweden pop 10.23m (2019 est)
Ireland pop 4.904m (2019 est)

Sweden total known cases 27,909
Ireland total known cases 23,401

Sweden Tests per million 17,576
Ireland Tests per million 52,414 (3 times the rate of Sweden)

Sweden total deaths using official criteria 3,460 (only includes cases confirmed in a laboratory)
Ireland total deaths using official criteria 1,497 (numbers include presumed/suspected cases)

Sweden moving five day deaths 285
Ireland moving five day deaths 68

Sweden Active Cases 19,478
Ireland Active Cases 2,434

charlie14

ElTel wrote: »

According to this article from early April, 25% of the population were born abroad.
I knew they had taken in a lot of refugees and have a progressive immigration policy but that figure surprised me.

I can't find a breakdown of deaths by ethnicity but the suggestion is that the minority groups are over-represented in the death stats.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sweden-coronavirus-minorities_n_5e8dfba3c5b670b4330a3977?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20vc2VhcmNoP3E9YnJlYWtkb3duK29mK3N3ZWRlbitjb3ZpZDE5K2RlYXRocyZmb3JtPUVETlRIVCZta3Q9ZW4tdXMmaHR0cHNtc249MSZtc25ld3M9MSZyZWNfc2VhcmNoPTEmcGx2YXI9MCZyZWZpZz00YmNlOTE4ZDQwZmM0ZGIzOGVhZjU3MmIwN2ZlNDljZiZzcD0tMSZnaGM9MSZwcT1icmVha2Rvd24rb2Yrc3dlZGVuK2NvdmlkMTkrZGVhdGhzJnNjPTAtMzQmcXM9biZzaz0mY3ZpZD00YmNlOTE4ZDQwZmM0ZGIzOGVhZjU3MmIwN2ZlNDljZg&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIKSV77XizfKDR5Cn12onDV7LIewzn9BEP89iXxGT_Tn9m3-PqVMzGpSs11aVuvmySuFKG7uBRXfvPbVxlh73k9maMT_uLwOjmvFxh-12Nfr4u9ktCxZfyBfUU-VtjmNSy1JVeruip-GDjwBlCdYLIRBxFhwbPxQLveYhOWu9zR7

In 2010 1.33 million of their population was born outside of Sweden with 860,000 of those born outside of the E.U. In 2010 that 860,000 would equate to around 8% of their present population. I have no idea of what the present numbers are but from 8% to 25% does seem a very large increase.
There were rumours from early on that ethnic communities were being hard hit by this virus in Sweden ,but from their own figures that 90% of those deaths were aged over 70 then they would not be from the 25% but from the 8% that are now over 70 I would imagine.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

It's rather a leap to say that it was a top priority of their strategy. Read in context, it is much more reasonable to interpret it as their top priority in relation to that sector.
Swedish candour on the mess they made in care homes is in contrast to the fudge that the Irish public has been treated to, where our care homes also have been a disaster. We have no reason to be smug on that.
Another point brought out in that article, and in others quoting Tegnell, is that much fewer people go to care homes in Sweden, so that those who are there are more vulnerable than in other states.

If it was not their top priority in avoiding fatalities then what was, because I cannot see any other sector where it was.


I really do not see what point Tegnell was trying to making.

Their care home, like our own, are among the main victims of this virus. With fewer numbers that other countries then there should be fewer fatalities.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes the climate theory I think has more stock to it now that things picked up so quickly in Brazil as it entered winter season

Also becasue they have an idiot in denial as president.

biko

28582 cases
3529 dead
12.3% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

charlie14

Nermal wrote: »

Lockdowns cost.

https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1260482683936915456

Riksbank, Sweden`s Central Bank 30th. April issued their GDP projection for 2020. Best case scenario -6.9%. Worse case -9.7%


The Konjunktur Institute, Sweden`s National Institute for Economic Research figure for same. -7%


I.M.F projections for countries that have used lockdown.
Germany -6.5%, Britain -7%, France -7.2%, Spain -8%, Finland -6%, Denmark -6.5%


No discernible difference between Swedish GDP projections and those that used lockdown.

silverharp

Sweden Versus New Jersey, NJ had a full lock down but a death rate over 1000. At least one can say a full lockdown doesnt have magic powers?

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1260903400734167040

wakka12

silverharp wrote: »

Sweden Versus New Jersey, NJ had a full lock down but a death rate over 1000. At least one can say a full lockdown doesnt have magic powers?

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1260903400734167040

Stockholm has reported half of Sweden's deaths,about 1800. Population of Stockholm region is 2.2 million

So it is similar to NJ in fact. New Jersey is extremely urbanised, there are 7 cities with populations over 100,000, similar to the Netherlands in density

Breezin

Breezin wrote: »

Incidentally, why are there two Sweden threads that seem to have similar focus?

Are you asking why the second thread on the Sweden lockdown started by the owner of boards.ie hasn't been closed or merged with the main one? Can't imagine why.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Riksbank, Sweden`s Central Bank 30th. April issued their GDP projection for 2020. Best case scenario -6.9%. Worse case -9.7%


The Konjunktur Institute, Sweden`s National Institute for Economic Research figure for same. -7%


I.M.F projections for countries that have used lockdown.
Germany -6.5%, Britain -7%, France -7.2%, Spain -8%, Finland -6%, Denmark -6.5%


No discernible difference between Swedish GDP projections and those that used lockdown.

A second lockdown would be devastating for the latter economies though as would rolling lockdowns. Many businesses wouldn't reopen in this case. Many just about survived the one just gone, as with Ireland. And its not as if Britain, France, Italy or Spain have done better with deaths than Sweden. They've done far worse. Its not all to do with lockdown, granted, as most of Sweden is far less densely populated.

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

If it was not their top priority in avoiding fatalities then what was, because I cannot see any other sector where it was.

To manage the curve overall.

I really do not see what point Tegnell was trying to making. Their care home, like our own, are among the main victims of this virus. With fewer numbers that other countries then there should be fewer fatalities.

Much fewer numbers within those institutions, because they are sicker in the first place, means they are much more vulnerable. So narrowing the comparison of the countries to that aspect is less relevant.

Breezin

Deleted User wrote: »

Are you asking why the second thread on the Sweden lockdown started by the owner of boards.ie hasn't been closed or merged with the main one? Can't imagine why.

Thanks. Hadn't copped that. :P

I suppose lots of media outlet owners/commercial operators feel free to set their agenda. At least in this case it's transparent, and people can engage or not as they choose.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

A second lockdown would be devastating for the latter economies though as would rolling lockdowns. Many businesses wouldn't reopen in this case. Many just about survived the one just gone, as with Ireland. And its not as if Britain, France, Italy or Spain have done better with deaths than Sweden. They've done far worse. Now that's not all to do with lockdown or not, granted, as most of Sweden is far less densely populated.

Sweden may to date have done better with fatalities per 100,000, but they have recently exceeded those of Ireland and the Netherlands and are now just behind France at 7th out of 29 European countries. Six times greater fatalities per 100,00 than Norway, and five times greater than Finland their neighbours.

Sweden`s strategy is not projected to be any better than those that used lockdown by their own Central Bank and their National Institute For Economic Resources as regards GDP for 2020.
Even if all others were hit by a second wave and went into lockdown again it would be no different.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

To manage the curve overall.


Much fewer numbers within those institutions, because they are sicker in the first place, means they are much more vulnerable. So narrowing the comparison of the countries to that aspect is less relevant.

I would have thought managing the curve would include minimising fatalities. Other than the vulnerable I don`t see where that was part of Sweden`s strategy.

Do we actually know if those in care homes in Sweden are sicker or more vulnerable than residents of Irish care homes ?
You may be correct, but I haven`t seen anything to show that.

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

I would have thought managing the curve would include minimising fatalities. Other than the vulnerable I don`t see where that was part of Sweden`s strategy.

In hindsight. Which they have fully acknowledged.

Do we actually know if those in care homes in Sweden are sicker or more vulnerable than residents of Irish care homes ?
You may be correct, but I haven`t seen anything to show that.

That's what I said they said. Feel free to check whether I made that up for the benefit of the Internet, or whether they did.