Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

In hindsight. Which they have fully acknowledged.





That's what I said they said. Feel free to check whether I made that up for the benefit of the Internet, or whether they did.

I was not even suggesting anything of the sort as regards you.
If that is what the Swedes said, fair enough.
I just find it an extraordinary statement that for some reason their residents in care homes pre Covid-19 were sicker and thus more vulnerable than those in Irish care homes.

PhoenixParker

On the economic front, thought this was interesting:

This paper uses transaction data from a large bank in Scandinavia to estimate the effect of social distancing laws on consumer spending in the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis exploits a natural experiment to disentangle the effects of the virus and the laws aiming to contain it: Denmark and Sweden were similarly exposed to the pandemic but only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on social and economic activities. We estimate that aggregate spending dropped by around 25 percent in Sweden and, as a result of the shutdown, by 4 additional percentage points in Denmark. This implies that most of the economic contraction is caused by the virus itself and occurs regardless of social distancing laws. The age gradient in the estimates suggest that social distancing reinforces the virus-induced drop in spending for low health-risk individuals but attenuates it for high-risk individuals by lowering the overall prevalence of the virus in the society.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.04630

Basically Sweden down 25% vs 29% for Denmark.

biko

Denmark opens up, Swedes not welcome

At the same time, the debate is on how and when Denmark will open its borders again - and several of the parties are clear on one point - that Swedes are not welcome.

If it is not justifiable for health to open the border to Sweden, the Swedes can stay there

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.expressen.se%2Fkvallsposten%2Fdanmark-kan-oppna-mer-vi-har-kontroll-%2F

Breezin

An excellent article that dispels the myth that Sweden is lax on Covid-19.

"Sweden is simply trying to flatten the curve and avoid a second spike," he observes. "The authorities' message can be muddled at times, but herd immunity is spoken of as a possible side-effect of the strategy, not the primary aim."
The aim is to limit the spread of the disease by making recommendations, rather than quarantines. The hope is that by keeping large parts of society open and following scientific advice, the country may avoid some of the worst social, economic, and medical consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

Covid-19 is likely to be around for a long time.
The World Health Organisation has said the Swedish strategy, a combination of trust and strategic controls, could be a key model for other countries in the long term.
In a BBC Radio 4 interview yesterday, Swedish Health and Social Affairs minister Lena Hallengren described Sweden’s coronavirus strategy as “one we can stick with over time.”

Breezin

And Simon Jenkins, who is no libertarian, but also not a Guardian lovey, is worth listening to too.

The half-Swedish commentator Freddie Sayer has been closely monitoring this debate from the UK. He makes the point that with each passing week the rest of Europe moves steadily closer to imitating Sweden. It is doing so because modern economies – and their peoples – just cannot live with such crushing abnormality as they have seen these past two months.

is_that_so

Breezin wrote: »

And Simon Jenkins, who is no libertarian, but also not a Guardian lovey, is worth listening to too.

Without their willingness to kill off the oldies of course!

Breezin

is_that_so wrote: »

Without their willingness to kill off the oldies of course!

Your post shows zero engagement with the issues in those articles.

charlie14

biko wrote: »

Denmark opens up, Swedes not welcome



https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.expressen.se%2Fkvallsposten%2Fdanmark-kan-oppna-mer-vi-har-kontroll-%2F

I doubt Denmark will be the only one.


Countries that used lockdowns to get their fatalities and confirmed number down before opening for tourism will be equally wary of Swedish visitors.

is_that_so

Breezin wrote: »

Your post shows zero engagement with the issues in those articles.

FWIW killing oldies is a fairly big social issue and usually best avoided as a public health exercise. Your own engagement was here's a link to some journalist who might be credible.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

And Simon Jenkins, who is no libertarian, but also not a Guardian lovey, is worth listening to too.

Economically Sweden are not doing any better, (nor are they projected too), than all the other countries in Europe that used lockdown, and I haven`t seen any groundswell of public opinion in any of those countries to drop lockdown in favour of the Swedish model.

biko

29207 cases
3646 dead
12.5% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

wakka12

Sweden's death rate very quickly rising above Ireland's now. 361 deaths per million Sweden, 305 Ireland

Kermit.de.frog

wakka12 wrote: »

Sweden's death rate very quickly rising above Ireland's now. 361 deaths per million Sweden, 305 Ireland

Their daily toll is not getting any better. 117 today.

There is no sign of an exit whereas countries that acted more have a clear timetable now and much lower case numbers and deaths.

Sweden is going to be left behind and countries will be reluctant to open up to them.

seamus

Sweden's death rate is now 18% higher than ours, and with their delays in reporting, that gap is only going to widen.

They are now on the downward slope of cases, so their measures are working, but the argument that they're doing better without a lockdown has been well and truly lost.

We still don't know how it will all shake out long-term, but certainly for now this looks like it's been a costly mistake on their part.

wakka12

Over 2000 deaths now approximately in the Stockholm area which has a population of 2.2 million. Putting it's death numbers per capita on par with the hardest hit regions in the world, New York state, New Jersey,Connecticut, Boston, Lombardy,London, Madrid, Belgium. Meanwhile in these areas the deaths are decreasing, in Stockhollm they remain consistently high. Miracle though, right?

charlie14

seamus wrote: »

Sweden's death rate is now 18% higher than ours, and with their delays in reporting, that gap is only going to widen.

They are now on the downward slope of cases, so their measures are working, but the argument that they're doing better without a lockdown has been well and truly lost.

We still don't know how it will all shake out long-term, but certainly for now this looks like it's been a costly mistake on their part.

I would hope for the Swedish population they are on the downward slope of cases but I would not be over-confident looking at their figures for new confirmed cases. Over 600 for five of the last seven days.

Mike3287

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Their daily toll is not getting any better. 117 today.

There is no sign of an exit whereas countries that acted more have a clear timetable now and much lower case numbers and deaths.

Sweden is going to be left behind and countries will be reluctant to open up to them.

That approach might pay off when a second wave hits later this year, as far more Swedes may be immune to the virus.

I'd prefer to get Covid in a 20c summer day vs -20c winter

wakka12

Mike3287 wrote: »

That approach might pay off when a second wave hits later this year, as far more Swedes may be immune to the virus.

I'd prefer to get Covid in a 20c summer day vs -20c winter

It is looking less likely now given the results of the antibody testing in Spain. It is likely that immunity levels in Sweden are currently very low, 3-4% of the population

PhoenixParker

PhoenixParker wrote: »

On the economic front, thought this was interesting:



https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.04630

Basically Sweden down 25% vs 29% for Denmark.

It's actually worth downloading and reading this paper. It has a lot more than just the economic comparison.

It sets out pretty well why Sweden and Denmark are comparable in terms of the epidemic- similar start date, similar cultures, similar travel patterns kicking things off, similar Google trends of symptom searches in the early days. . .

It then sets out what actions were taken by each government on which days.

In addition to the economic stuff there's a graph of excess mortality in each country. They start out tracking each other. Denmark flattens out at 5%, Sweden flattens out at 40%.

World meter has Denmark at 93 deaths per million vs 361 for Sweden.

tobefrank321

I'm not sure Sweden will achieve herd immunity, certainly not in the less dense areas. Stockholm might achieve it eventually, but it would likely take another year based on current trends in which case there will likely be a vaccine.

Sweden don't publish proper case numbers so its also impossible to know the extent of infection and can only be guessed at from deaths, ICU and hospitalisations.

If the herd immunity theory holds up, Sweden should see a huge peak in case numbers/deaths and then a gradual decline. So far no sign of that decline.

Has there been any antibody sampling of the Swedish population? It would be interesting to see how prevalent the spread is.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'm not sure Sweden will achieve herd immunity, certainly not in the less dense areas. Stockholm might achieve it eventually, but it would likely take another year based on current trends in which case there will likely be a vaccine.

Sweden don't publish proper case numbers so its also impossible to know the extent of infection and can only be guessed at from deaths, ICU and hospitalisations.

If the herd immunity theory holds up, Sweden should see a huge peak in case numbers/deaths and then a gradual decline. So far no sign of that decline.

Has there been any antibody sampling of the Swedish population? It would be interesting to see how prevalent the spread is.

There have been all kind of claims from Sweden on immunity.
Over a month ago they claimed an estimated 33% for Stockholm.
Then withdrew that and later claimed 27%.
Few weeks ago their ambassador to the U.S. claimed 30% and then last week Tegnell claimed 25%.

All those claims were for Stockholm which has 50% of their fatalities but only 20% of their population.No claims that I am aware of for the other 80%.
If, as they say, their Ro number is below 1, then national herd immunity, if it is even possible, is a long way off. If ever.

On antibodies, same time as that 33% immunity claim they also reported that of 100 blood donors 11 had developed antibodies.
That was also withdrawn at the same time, and far as I know has not been republished.

charlie14

wakka12 wrote: »

It is looking less likely now given the results of the antibody testing in Spain. It is likely that immunity levels in Sweden are currently very low, 3-4% of the population

French studies now showing the same as Spain for antibody tests.

faceman

As much as I’d love to subscribe to the theory, we need to stop heralding herd immunity as a solution. Humans don’t live like herds and studies in China and Spain show only 3% and 5% level of antibodies respectively in people who were tested for it.

Tork

Is Herd Immunity even a viable option when there is no vaccine?

normanoffside

faceman wrote: »

As much as I’d love to subscribe to the theory, we need to stop heralding herd immunity as a solution. Humans don’t live like herds and studies in China and Spain show only 3% and 5% level of antibodies respectively in people who were tested for it.

Doesn't it take a month after Infection to start to show antibodies?
Surely in a few more weeks, Spain will show a higher level of them.

Not as High as might have been hoped though.

niallo27

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Their daily toll is not getting any better. 117 today.

There is no sign of an exit whereas countries that acted more have a clear timetable now and much lower case numbers and deaths.

Sweden is going to be left behind and countries will be reluctant to open up to them.

What you mean by no sign of an exit, what is our exit here. We have 300 dead per million with a full lock-down and 28% unemployed. Do you think once our timetable is complete the virus will just disappear.

niallo27

wakka12 wrote: »

Over 2000 deaths now approximately in the Stockholm area which has a population of 2.2 million. Putting it's death numbers per capita on par with the hardest hit regions in the world, New York state, New Jersey,Connecticut, Boston, Lombardy,London, Madrid, Belgium. Meanwhile in these areas the deaths are decreasing, in Stockhollm they remain consistently high. Miracle though, right?

They are decreasing due to lock-downs though which are not viable long term, Stockholm is probably just experiencing now what every capital will be in 5 or 6 months time.

tobefrank321

faceman wrote: »

As much as I’d love to subscribe to the theory, we need to stop heralding herd immunity as a solution. Humans don’t live like herds and studies in China and Spain show only 3% and 5% level of antibodies respectively in people who were tested for it.

There is no harm in discussing the herd immunity theory which is different to advocating it.

The Swedes are engaged in a large scale experiment. There may be something to be learned from it, there may not be. What countries might learn is that their approach was the wrong one. Alternatively, it may prove in the end they got it right. We simply don't know at this stage.

Personally speaking, I'm interested in the science behind covid 19 and the different approaches taken by different countries.

The herd immunity approach is interesting in theory but hard to make work in the real world. So it will be interesting to see how it ends up for the Swedes.

greyday

niallo27 wrote: »

They are decreasing due to lock-downs though which are not viable long term, Stockholm is probably just experiencing now what every capital will be in 5 or 6 months time.

Ireland is experiencing now what Sweden will experience in 6 months time!

wakka12

niallo27 wrote: »

They are decreasing due to lock-downs though which are not viable long term, Stockholm is probably just experiencing now what every capital will be in 5 or 6 months time.

Perhaps, it remains a theory though. Regardless, parts of Sweden are experiencing very high rates of death despite what some people think