Sweden avoiding lockdown

thebaz

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

How many times does it have to be repeated?
Our approach has been oriented towards making sure our health service wasn't getting overwhelmed, and that we didn't turn out like northern Italy.

I'm well aware of that - but I am re-iterating ther is not only one way to fight this virus - A month a go everyone said England and Sweden were creating genocide by adopting Herd immunity - today, many experts now admit with the a vaccine probably 2 years away at best , and we actually may nver get a effective vaccine, that herd immunity is probably the only long term cure - so repeat all you want , you like most people (in fact everyone) have not all the answers.

charlie14

thebaz wrote: »

I'm well aware of that - but I am re-iterating ther is not only one way to fight this virus - A month a go everyone said England and Sweden were creating genocide by adopting Herd immunity - today, many experts now admit with the a vaccine probably 2 years away at best , and we actually may nver get a effective vaccine, that herd immunity is probably the only long term cure - so repeat all you want , you like most people (in fact everyone) have not all the answers.

As you say, nobody has all the answers, but from the results of recent research, (especially from Spain, one of the worst effected countries),herd immunity is not one of them.
Testing of blood samples from 70,000 participants for antibody`s show only a level of 5% nationally. For France 4.4%

Even for Madrid, the epicenter of their infections shows only 13%.
No where near herd immunity levels.

thebaz

charlie14 wrote: »

As you say, nobody has all the answers, but from the results of recent research, (especially from Spain, one of the worst effected countries),herd immunity is not one of them.
Testing of blood samples from 70,000 participants for antibody`s show only a level of 5% nationally. For France 4.4%

Even for Madrid, the epicenter of their infections shows only 13%.
No where near herd immunity levels.

I posted a video a few posts back from Dr. Cambell, who is a pretty balanced doctor, and he suggest the only real answer to the virus is herd immunity - even when we get to 40% it will act a detereent, London for instance is now at 20% - its in video.

Ce he sin

thebaz wrote: »

I'm well aware of that - but I am re-iterating ther is not only one way to fight this virus - A month a go everyone said England and Sweden were creating genocide by adopting Herd immunity - today, many experts now admit with the a vaccine probably 2 years away at best , and we actually may nver get a effective vaccine, that herd immunity is probably the only long term cure - so repeat all you want , you like most people (in fact everyone) have not all the answers.

If we never get an effective vaccine then I'm afraid it's not looking good for herd immunity either

biko

On one hand Sweden says they have beds left in hospitals.
On the other hand doctors testify that emergency guidelines are already being implemented and people rejected from care.

The guidelines are about intensive care, but here we sit and make the decision that these groups should not even receive outpatient care.

To take an example, according to customary rules, one should not decide on introducing palliative measures without talking to the patient.
You do this together when the patient is there. I know this is happening without informing anyone, whether patient or relative, sometimes by a nurse.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fekuriren.se%2Fnyheter%2Fartikel%2Fjag-tycker-manga-lakare-forlorat-allt-vett%2Fgrm97e1j

charlie14

thebaz wrote: »

I posted a video a few posts back from Dr. Cambell, who is a pretty balanced doctor, and he suggest the only real answer to the virus is herd immunity - even when we get to 40% it will act a detereent, London for instance is now at 20% - its in video.

London is not out in the middle of the Atlantic all on it`s own.

Herd immunity to be anyway effective would, according to most expert opinion, need to be as close to 80% as possible nationally. A pocket of the inhabitants at 20% is basically irrelevant for national herd immunity.


Some regions around Madrid tested at 13%, yet the national figure for Spain is just 5%. Same for areas of France worst effected with a national average of 4.4%

National herd immunity is just not feasible from the results of those studies.


Last figure I heard from Tegnell on Sweden was 25% for Stockholm alone. Stockholm accounts for just 20% of their population, but has over 50% of their confirmed cases, so it follows that nationally that percentage is much lower. Even if it was as high as 20% nationally, with them claiming an Ro number lower than 1, getting to a national herd immunity level would be the far side of never imo.

thebaz

charlie14 wrote: »

London is not out in the middle of the Atlantic all on it`s own.

Herd immunity to be anyway effective would, according to most expert opinion, need to be as close to 80% as possible nationally. A pocket of the inhabitants at 20% is basically irrelevant for national herd immunity.


Some regions around Madrid tested at 13%, yet the national figure for Spain is just 5%. Same for areas of France worst effected with a national average of 4.4%

National herd immunity is just not feasible from the results of those studies.


Last figure I heard from Tegnell on Sweden was 25% for Stockholm alone. Stockholm accounts for just 20% of their population, but has over 50% of their confirmed cases, so it follows that nationally that percentage is much lower. Even if it was as high as 20% nationally, with them claiming an Ro number lower than 1, getting to a national herd immunity level would be the far side of never imo.

Herd immunity needs 60% to work - Where did I say London is out on its own in the atlatic ??? - listen to the video he expains as more people become infected , herd immunity takes gradual takes effect , ther is not an exact number of 60 % and suddenly you get it - I think I will listen to a balanced Doctor than someone on boards taking about 80%

niallo27

charlie14 wrote: »

Doesn`t seem so bad anywhere if that is the yardstick you are using.

The world could have saved it`s self a lot of effort time and money by just shooting all those over 90 years. getting them to stand close together would even have saved on bullets :rolleyes:

We protected them so well in this country didnt we, we should be proud.

charlie14

niallo27 wrote: »

We protected them so well in this country didnt we, we should be proud.

Indeed we did not, and neither was I claiming we did.

I was replying to a post that gave the impression that once you reached a certain age you had a good run so there was no great need for concern if a virus wiped out a large proportion of that age group.

biko

Coronavirus: why the Nordics are our best bet for comparing strategies

From a scientific perspective, and in the absence of better models, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland – which are culturally, economically, politically and geographically similar – may, serendipitously, represent a powerful intervention trial.

Currently, 15 million people here have been assigned to a lockdown, while a further 10 million have been asked to simply act responsibly.

The Swedish approach to COVID-19 could not be more different from its neighbours, placing much of the responsibility for delaying the spread of the virus and protecting the vulnerable in the hands of the public.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-the-nordics-are-our-best-bet-for-comparing-strategies-135344

charlie14

thebaz wrote: »

Herd immunity needs 60% to work - Where did I say London is out on its own in the atlatic ??? - listen to the video he expains as more people become infected , herd immunity takes gradual takes effect , ther is not an exact number of 60 % and suddenly you get it - I think I will listen to a balanced Doctor than someone on boards taking about 80%

If that 60% is from your doctor then he is at variance with most experts.
I already gave you the figures for Spain, 5% and France 4.4%.

Did your doctor give a figure for your present national percentage infection level, explain just how many more would need to become infected to reach his 60%, how long he believes that would take, and how many more would die getting to that figure by allowing this virus to run rampant among the population ?

Vinnie222

thebaz wrote: »

Herd immunity needs 60% to work - Where did I say London is out on its own in the atlatic ??? - listen to the video he expains as more people become infected , herd immunity takes gradual takes effect , ther is not an exact number of 60 % and suddenly you get it - I think I will listen to a balanced Doctor than someone on boards taking about 80%

Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

thebaz

charlie14 wrote: »

If that 60% is from your doctor then he is at variance with most experts.
I already gave you the figures for Spain, 5% and France 4.4%.

Did your doctor give a figure for your present national percentage infection level, explain just how many more would need to become infected to reach his 60%, how long he believes that would take, and how many more would die getting to that figure by allowing this virus to run rampant among the population ?

Michael Osterholm suggested 60% , Dr. Cambell 70 % -

What Dr. Cambell says in video , its not an exact number , but as more and more people become infected the more it will help deter the virus - so at 50% will not give complete cure, but will be pretty effective , thats what he says -

Also anti-body testing has only really become available recently - so I would ecpect by June we will have more accurate figures on how many are really infected.

biko

Anders Tegnell 7 years ago:

Anders Tegnell at the Institute for Infectious Disease believes that Sweden's contingency plan
for a pandemic outbreak is good enough and prepared for a number of different scenarios that may arise.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/sveriges-beredskap-ratt-kass


Norway's Frode Forland (the Tegnell for Noway)
"Swedes should be more humble - Norway has managed to better protect its elderly."

In a lengthy SvD interview, the Director of Infection Protection directs criticism against the epidemiologists Anders Tegnell and Johan Giesecke.
https://www.svd.se/norska-kritiken-giesecke-borde-vara-mer-odmjuk

biko

Elderly in retirement home not allowed to wear face mask, "can scare the others"

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7473938?fbclid=IwAR0fZ9s3lLgBuJRnMqxP_dkNBG6jSmprV8fffFoqbS2WvIF0ijCi95650tw

is_that_so

thebaz wrote: »

Michael Osterholm suggested 60% , Dr. Cambell 70 % -

What Dr. Cambell says in video , its not an exact number , but as more and more people become infected the more it will help deter the virus - so at 50% will not give complete cure, but will be pretty effective , thats what he says -

Also anti-body testing has only really become available recently - so I would ecpect by June we will have more accurate figures on how many are really infected.

A Ph.D, not a medical doctor but a nurse.

Roger_007

thebaz wrote: »

Michael Osterholm suggested 60% , Dr. Cambell 70 % -

What Dr. Cambell says in video , its not an exact number , but as more and more people become infected the more it will help deter the virus - so at 50% will not give complete cure, but will be pretty effective , thats what he says -

Also anti-body testing has only really become available recently - so I would ecpect by June we will have more accurate figures on how many are really infected.

The problem is that we don’t know what it would take to achieve ‘herd immunity’. It could be as low as 20%.
It all depends on what percentage of the population have a natural resistance to becoming infected. The example of the Diamond Princess is interesting. In theory everyone on board should have got infected. In actual fact only 20% of the 3800 did show symptoms and tested positive. I don’t know if any studies were done to find out why so many didn’t get infected or were asymptomatic.
If it’s true that a large proportion of the population are naturally resistant to developing the symptomatic Covid-19 disease, then it’s possible that the virus has already run its course in many populations and will fade away quicker than many people think.

Mike3287

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Just thought I'd compile a few number by way of comparison, I appreciate people will pick and mix as they see fit citing population profile, density etc.

worldometers.info stats

Sweden pop 10.23m (2019 est)
Ireland pop 4.904m (2019 est)

Sweden total known cases 27,909
Ireland total known cases 23,401

Sweden Tests per million 17,576
Ireland Tests per million 52,414 (3 times the rate of Sweden)

Sweden total deaths using official criteria 3,460 (only includes cases confirmed in a laboratory)
Ireland total deaths using official criteria 1,497 (numbers include presumed/suspected cases)

Sweden moving five day deaths 285
Ireland moving five day deaths 68

Sweden Active Cases 19,478
Ireland Active Cases 2,434

Most fitting stat



https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Rest like active cases, tests per million are rubbish

What Username Guidelines

Roger_007 wrote: »

The problem is that we don’t know what it would take to achieve ‘herd immunity’. It could be as low as 20%.
It all depends on what percentage of the population have a natural resistance to becoming infected. The example of the Diamond Princess is interesting. In theory everyone on board should have got infected. In actual fact only 20% of the 3800 did show symptoms and tested positive. I don’t know if any studies were done to find out why so many didn’t get infected or were asymptomatic.
If it’s true that a large proportion of the population are naturally resistant to developing the symptomatic Covid-19 disease, then it’s possible that the virus has already run its course in many populations and will fade away quicker than many people think.

I find it interesting that while a lot of cases are health workers, it’s not nearly every health worker. If this thing is so infectious and stays hanging in the air, etc, surely it would be nearly impossible not to contract it by walking through a hospital or working there daily. Obviously there are controls and PPE, but “only” 27% of health workers in Lombardy showed antibodies, can we assume that the other 73% managed to not pick it up, or is there some innate immunity there? Also, I’m not sure of any previous pandemic that resulted in herd immunity and therefore eradicated. Don’t they usually come in waves (although that could be exclusive to influenzas) and/or burn out?

Lastly, while Spain is showing at ~5%, there could also be those who fought it off with t-cells and didn’t develop antibodies. Some of Spain’s non essential workers have been back almost a month at this stage and they’re still trending down in new cases, so who knows? Maybe just my wishful thinking that this thing just slowly fizzles out

biko

Sweden now leads the world in daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people



https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2020-03-01..&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&country=USA+GBR+CAN+BRA+AUS+IND+ESP+DEU+FRA+CHE+SWE+RUS+NOR+NLD+MDA+ITA+IRL+IRN+BEL+BLR

Mike3287

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I find it interesting that while a lot of cases are health workers, it’s not nearly every health worker. If this thing is so infectious and stays hanging in the air, etc, surely it would be nearly impossible not to contract it by walking through a hospital or working there daily.

I find it strange too

Neighbour of mine working in care home had the virus, young fit guy about 28 - 30, he had no symptoms, didn't know he had it until he was routinely tested in work

He never infected his kids, wife or colleagues who only wear masks around residents

biko

The only reason to compare Sweden and Ireland is because we're in Ireland. There are no other touch points.

fash

ElTel wrote: »

I've amended the part of my post about excess mortality because I was imprecise. I could debate your numbers and say the IFR for Covid19 is only X10 higher (.4 and .04) and that restrictions/lockdowns means there's not a full population for it to attack but appreciate the point your making.

IFR for Covid is definitely higher than 0.4 - between 1.2 - 1.4 based on cruise ships, Spain (where not overwhelmed), New York (over 0.3% of the population there already dead from covid - if what you suggest was accurate, they are beyond herd immunity), Italy, infected medical workers etc.
Appreciate that flu IFRs are fuzzy however.

Beasty

Can we keep the discussion to Sweden and their approach to this virus

Thanks

charlie14

thebaz wrote: »

Michael Osterholm suggested 60% , Dr. Cambell 70 % -

What Dr. Cambell says in video , its not an exact number , but as more and more people become infected the more it will help deter the virus - so at 50% will not give complete cure, but will be pretty effective , thats what he says -

Also anti-body testing has only really become available recently - so I would ecpect by June we will have more accurate figures on how many are really infected.

All I can tell you is that Spain with 2/3 of the population of Britain have 274,000 confirmed cases as opposed to Britain`s 236,000. They have carried out antibody testing on 70,000 of their population and have determined that national herd immunity is as low as 5%. France with a similar population to Britain have determined it at 4.4%.

Neither of those studies would even vaguely suggest that Sweden, or indeed Britain are anywhere near the figure required.
If you want to go with the stab in the dark figures of a retired A&E nurse that is your choice, but for myself I would have more faith in findings based on such large scale tests

VillageIdiot71

biko wrote: »

The only reason to compare Sweden and Ireland is because we're in Ireland. There are no other touch points.

True, we've a completely different physiology. Bizarre to think there's any similarity in how the virus might effect us, as if we all belong to the same species.

You might as well compare us to dolphins.

How is the virus going down with dolphins? Do they have a vaccine? Can we use it?

growleaves

biko wrote: »

The only reason to compare Sweden and Ireland is because we're in Ireland. There are no other touch points.

Who founded Dublin and Waterford again? Apart from their ancestors founding our cities, we're in a political union with them.

Ash.J.Williams

growleaves wrote: »

Who founded Dublin and Waterford again? Apart from their ancestors founding our cities, we're in a political union with them.

The Danes?

thebaz

charlie14 wrote: »

All I can tell you is that Spain with 2/3 of the population of Britain have 274,000 confirmed cases as opposed to Britain`s 236,000. They have carried out antibody testing on 70,000 of their population and have determined that national herd immunity is as low as 5%. France with a similar population to Britain have determined it at 4.4%.

Neither of those studies would even vaguely suggest that Sweden, or indeed Britain are anywhere near the figure required.
If you want to go with the stab in the dark figures of a retired A&E nurse that is your choice, but for myself I would have more faith in findings based on such large scale tests

Equally I could say do you want to go with figures of the Imperial college - ther doomsday figures have not occured - Sweden is at 3,674 deaths - a little over double of Ireland , when its population is double ours -
They will in all probabibility have less deaths from secondary illness and in particular mental health fatalities, that will cripple most of the countrys in mandatory lockdowns :-

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52676981

If you want to believe all the doomsday scenarios related here and in the media , thats your perogative - I'm somehwere in the middle - Believe we have done the right thing up to now, not crippling the health system , but now is time to open other parts of our society so larger percentages of the poplulation can , live , breathe and earn a living and actually enjoy living , and not live in constant fear of virus that has only devasted certain pockets in the world and thankfully has not had the dreaded death rate that many here predicted, I remember figures of 10% were being quoutes, thankfully this has not happened.

biko

Let's compare Sweden to other EU countries with approx 10 million inhabitants.
Greece 160
Czech Republic 295
Portugal 1200
Sweden 3600
Belgium 8959

Belgium's numbers are so incredibly high because they count anyone remotely suspicious as a covid death - overcounting.
Sweden, while having the most deaths in the Nordics by far, are counting low - undercounting.