Sweden avoiding lockdown

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

From what biko has posted recently there appears to be a lot of penny pinching when it comes to even attempting to safeguard staff and while I am sick and tired of repeating this, both Sweden`s own Central Bank and Institute of Economic Research do not see Sweden`s strategy being any more economically favourable than that of any other European country that used lockdown as their strategy.

The nursing homes are private institutions, you can't possibly accuse a government of 'penny pinching' in this situation where they don't control it. They've subsequently changed the laws here in terms of affording government assistance for sick-leave to alleviate the issues they were seeing here. Don't get me wrong, they totally messed up on this account by not doing it sooner and making sure that these places were forced to adopt safer practices. It's a nation whose public spending is way higher than most nations - it's farcical to call it penny pinching (at least not in the public sense), it's not how things are done here.
People here tell me government enforced change here is slow and very much committee driven where everyone gets a say. In late March the government gave themselves powers to be able impose penalties on institutions/businesses not adhering to the policies in place - this was met with criticism that it didn't go through parliament in a democratic way!

As I mentioned before - The approach is one of making a sustainable way of living and changing that approach as things are seen to work / not work. From my perspective here I see some of it working very well and other parts not so much but the fact is it's not like everything is operating as it was with no changes - things have changed hugely - shops have restrictions on the number of people able to enter them at any point in time (with queues of people standing 2 meters apart), there's labels on the floor indicating how far to stand apart, you need to have a table and be sitting so far from someone if you're somewhere indoors, most shops have screens protecting workers, hand sanitizer is everywhere and travel is restricted.
It's a lifestyle you'll have to get used to in Ireland soon - the virus isn't going to just stop unless you utilise restrictions like you see in Vietnam & China where you're talking about 4 months lockdown - ban on international travel going forward (or 2 weeks immediate imposed quarantine on arrival) - strict tracking of people's movement and logging of people that you're in contact with. That does work but it's unconstitutional in the EU so ?

People were looking at Sweden`s strategy as herd immunity long before Trump elbowed onto the bandwagon.

People where? Not here in Sweden I can tell you. Greater inoculation levels among the low-risk general public was seen as a positive to help high risk people who were told to stay at home and isolate was seen as a positive yes but nowhere here was this used the reason behind the approach - it's always differed a lot from what you saw in the UK - (though the number of people allowed in a public gathering being set at 500 for half of march was farcical)

To early to tell, but so far some of those countries that used lockdown to get their fatality and new case rates down to a low level seem to be doing ok after easing restrictions.

Unless you can give me some examples (and I don't believe Asia really counts to provide helpful comparisons to how Europe will fair) I'm going to just say It's way too early to tell and will certainly vary per location, due to cultural, geographical and economic reasons.

charlie14

the incredible pudding wrote: »

The nursing homes are private institutions, you can't possibly accuse a government of 'penny pinching' in this situation where they don't control it. They've subsequently changed the laws here in terms of affording government assistance for sick-leave to alleviate the issues they were seeing here. Don't get me wrong, they totally messed up on this account by not doing it sooner and making sure that these places were forced to adopt safer practices. It's a nation whose public spending is way higher than most nations - it's farcical to call it penny pinching (at least not in the public sense), it's not how things are done here.
People here tell me government enforced change here is slow and very much committee driven where everyone gets a say. In late March the government gave themselves powers to be able impose penalties on institutions/businesses not adhering to the policies in place - this was met with criticism that it didn't go through parliament in a democratic way!

As I mentioned before - The approach is one of making a sustainable way of living and changing that approach as things are seen to work / not work. From my perspective here I see some of it working very well and other parts not so much but the fact is it's not like everything is operating as it was with no changes - things have changed hugely - shops have restrictions on the number of people able to enter them at any point in time (with queues of people standing 2 meters apart), there's labels on the floor indicating how far to stand apart, you need to have a table and be sitting so far from someone if you're somewhere indoors, most shops have screens protecting workers, hand sanitizer is everywhere and travel is restricted.
It's a lifestyle you'll have to get used to in Ireland soon - the virus isn't going to just stop unless you utilise restrictions like you see in Vietnam & China where you're talking about 4 months lockdown - ban on international travel going forward (or 2 weeks immediate imposed quarantine on arrival) - strict tracking of people's movement and logging of people that you're in contact with. That does work but it's unconstitutional in the EU so ?


People where? Not here in Sweden I can tell you. Greater inoculation levels among the low-risk general public was seen as a positive to help high risk people who were told to stay at home and isolate was seen as a positive yes but nowhere here was this used the reason behind the approach - it's always differed a lot from what you saw in the UK - (though the number of people allowed in a public gathering being set at 500 for half of march was farcical)


Unless you can give me some examples (and I don't believe Asia really counts to provide helpful comparisons to how Europe will fair) I'm going to just say It's way too early to tell and will certainly vary per location, due to cultural, geographical and economic reasons.

We have nothing to boast about here as concerns care home, but at least our primary strategy was to restrict the spread of the virus and associated death, whereas Sweden`s was supposedly the protection of the most vulnerable.

It is not as if our lockdown is intended to remain in stasis. It will be eased (starting tomorrow actually) on a programmed staged basis, taking account of any problems, or not, each stage caused before moving to the next. This may delay a subsequent stage or bring its start date forward.

I don`t see why a country such as South Korea can not be used as an example of how effective testing, contact tracing and quarantine can be when used hand in hand with easing restrictions. It is not as if this virus has regard foe ethnicity.
Austria with a population of 9 million has greatly eased lockdown restrictions since the beginning of the month and for the past week has had 11 Covid-19 related deaths.
Denmark with a population of 5.8 million opened daycare and schools on April 14th. with further lifting of restrictions on April 20th. had 20 Covid-19 related deaths for this week.

I always understood inoculation to mean the administration of a vaccine to counteract a disease.
As that is obviously not what you meant when saying the highlighted above, then I can only assume you meant greater exposure levels among the low-risk general public was seen as a positive.
Like the Louis Armstrong and Ella Fitzgerald song Lets Call The Whole Thing Off as to how you pronounce tomato, if that is not an attempt at achieving herd immunity, then I do not know what else it can be called.

biko

We'll see. All I know it's that compared to its neighbors it's been a lot of unnecessary deaths because of his strategy.

Speaking to Newsweek, Tegnell admitted that a lockdown would have helped reduce the number of cases and deaths in Sweden in the short term, but said the decision might pay dividends in the long run.

"Obviously yes, it would have helped in the short term. But for the long term, we don't know," he said.

https://www.newsweek.com/scientist-behind-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-says-lockdown-obviously-would-have-reduced-death-1504334

Cupatae

biko wrote: »

We'll see. All I know it's that compared to its neighbors it's been a lot of unnecessary deaths because of his strategy.





https://www.newsweek.com/scientist-behind-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-says-lockdown-obviously-would-have-reduced-death-1504334

Our healthcare system simply could not have coped with the more relaxed approach taken by Sweden, the ICU numbers have flat out... confirmed that anyone roaring for the Swedish approach would have been devastatingly wrong.

Breezin

tobefrank321

The herd immunity approach is ok in theory. It falls down in practice from the inability to protect and cocoon the elderly and vulnerable.

Plus, Sweden aren't following a pure herd immunity approach. Their current approach is a mixture of restrictions, social distancing and also allowing life continue on as normal for most young people. This means the R0 is currently hovering just above 1 when you'd want it at least 5 to achieve herd immunity within a year. At the current rate they will never reach herd immunity.

So Sweden are stuck in a no man's land at the moment, neither one approach or the other.

tobefrank321

Breezin wrote: »

The dips in the Swedish chart are the weekend effect when numbers of notifications are at the bare minimum. It doesn't reflect what actually happened that day. The Swedish graph is still on average high and not coming down.

Breezin

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The dips in the Swedish chart are the weekend effect when numbers of notifications are at the bare minimum. It doesn't reflect what actually happened that day. The Swedish graph is still on average high and not coming down.

We shall see.

Breezin

Johan Giesecke on Ireland again... (€)

Professor Johan Giesecke, a senior epidemiologist and adviser to the director-general of the World Health Organisation (WHO), predicts Ireland will end up with the same case and death rate, per head of population, in line with every other country.

"I can tell you, Ireland has a lot of cases coming," he said. However, he stressed that people should not be afraid and, "for most people, this is a very mild disease".

sydthebeat

Breezin wrote: »

We shall see.

we dont have to wait


free uploading site

we can see from their own chart that since their peak on 15 / 16 april .. they have been averaging a steady 65-75 deaths per day ever since ...
for example on the 17th april they had (to date) 82 deaths.... and on the 7th march they had (to date) 75 deaths... and the days between have been in and around these figures

our chart shows a lot more of a steady fall in deaths

Breezin

sydthebeat wrote: »

we dont have to wait


free uploading site

we can see from their own chart that since their peak on 15 / 16 april .. they have been averaging a steady 65-75 deaths per day ever since ...
for example on the 17th april they had (to date) 82 deaths.... and on the 7th march they had (to date) 75 deaths... and the days between have been in and around these figures

our chart shows a lot more of a steady fall in deaths

In the short term

sydthebeat

Breezin wrote: »

In the short term

hummm

the WHO announced the virus as a global pandemic on 12th March

we're over 9 weeks since then.. so the "short term" argument is starting to look very thin.

Breezin

sydthebeat wrote: »

hummm

the WHO announced the virus as a global pandemic on 12th March

we're over 9 weeks since then.. so the "short term" argument is starting to look very thin.

Nine weeks is a very, very short time in the life of a virus with no vaccine. As the WHO has said, it isn't going anywhere fast. This is the whole point of trying to manage it without causing radical damage to one's society.

Looking around Europe, everyone is slowly but surely becoming Sweden as this is realised. Except for us, of course. Our autocracy is so powerful and conservative, we are always Paddy last when it comes to doing the right thing.

wakka12

Breezin wrote: »

Nine weeks is a very, very short time in the life of a virus with no vaccine. As the WHO has said, it isn't going anywhere fast. This is the whole point of trying to manage it without causing radical damage to one's society.

Looking around Europe, everyone is slowly but surely becoming Sweden as this is realised. Except for us, of course. Our autocracy is so powerful and conservative, we are always Paddy last when it comes to doing the right thing.

We arent last, Scotland has not even announced an exit strategy from it's lockdown yet

Breezin

wakka12 wrote: »

We arent last, Scotland has not even announced an exit strategy from it's lockdown yet

Whew! Saved by Scotland again!


Almost last then.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Bit cynical wrote: »

Yes, I've never understood why people consider population density to be a big factor. It is not density, per say, but distribution. You could have a huge country with a relatively low population (and therefore low density) but if everyone is crammed into one city then you will have problems with epidemics.

Yeah, I highlighted this weeks ago. Lived density is a far more useful metric than arithmetic density:

https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345

However, this doesn't really help the thesis that Sweden has a much higher lived density than Ireland. In the table provided in that article. Ireland is the third least densely populated country in Europe by lived density but Sweden is just above it and they are pretty much even. It would not appear that Sweden is that much more urbanised than Ireland. So if, as you say, much more people live alone in Sweden than Ireland, then their death rate should really be lower than ours, as lived density-wise, Ireland and Sweden are almost neck and neck

Breezin

Interesting piece from Sweden in the Spectator (God, I feel dirty).

'Sweden represents a future model if we want to return to a society that we do not have to close', says the WHO’s Mike Ryan.

But all the training we’ve had in sharing the society with coronavirus has taught us that it isn’t dangerous to leave your home or send your kids to school. People don’t have to fearful of living their life in a pretty normal way. Remarkably, seven out of ten Swedes think the future actually looks bright.

Fewer ICU beds are now occupied, especially in Stockholm where the number of patients in intensive care has dropped by almost 40 per cent since the peak. The daily intake of new intensive care patients is now in the low double digits. The daily death toll flatlined in the second half of April and, mercifully, has since been on a declining trend...
the R has been below 1 since mid-April or so, and now stands at about 0.85.

growleaves

If all we have done is lengthened the epidemic, and that leads to lockdown no.2 then that will be very bad.

joeysoap

Sweden and Portugal have almost identical populations ( Portugal silghtly bigger) Portugal appears to be doing much better. Portugal 121 deaths per million, Sweden 366. Portugal value their aged, Sweden apparently less so.

Breezin

joeysoap wrote: »

Sweden and Portugal have almost identical populations ( Portugal silghtly bigger) Portugal appears to be doing much better. Portugal 121 deaths per million, Sweden 366. Portugal value their aged, Sweden apparently less so.

Portugal is less like Ireland and more like Sweden with regard to its lockdown. From today's Guardian:

Public transport across the country is running at a reduced capacity, though there are rail and bus links to Lisbon city centre from most parts of the country, and taxis are still operating. Restaurants and bars in many regions are permitted to open on 18 May, at limited capacity. Many of the Algarve’s hotels are already open and its beaches are due to open in June. Non-essential travel is not permitted to Madeira and the Azores, where there are health screenings and mandatory 14-day self-isolation is still in place.

So essentially they can travel for the most part within Portugal, unlike here.

Dj Stiggie

Breezin wrote: »

Portugal is less like Ireland and more like Sweden with regard to its lockdown. From today's Guardian:






So essentially they can travel for the most part within Portugal, unlike here.

There was never any restrictions on movement in Denmark which opened up again today.

KerryConnor

It's taken me a while to clarify the difference, I'm presuming our government is following a strategy of suppression which will involve massive testing and constantly tracking the virus. And Sweden is following a strategy of let it loose which won't involve tracking.
For 20% vulnerable to becoming v ill I think the Swedish model is horrific. They just have to take their chances when they leave the house. But hopefully we ll suppress the virus successfully and constantly test n track new clusters. It makes going out into the community so much safer.

daithi7

joeysoap wrote: »

Sweden and Portugal have almost identical populations ( Portugal silghtly bigger) Portugal appears to be doing much better. Portugal 121 deaths per million, Sweden 366. Portugal value their aged, Sweden apparently less so.

Assuming no vaccine for ~24months, It all depends on the level of infection in both populations.

If Sweden have had a proportional number of fatalities to the level of infection in their population (& hence resultant inoculation), then Portugal will ultimately catch up on the number of fatalities, but Sweden won't have thrashed their economy trying to defend the unbeatable....

This is the big, unanswered question with Sweden's strategy versus Portugal's, and other countries,
like Ireland's. If the Swedes do end up with similar levels of fatalities per million to Portugal & Ireland , without ever overwhelming their ICUs, which they seem to be managing, then they will have managed a similar net result with much less short & long term damage to their economy & way of life.
(E.g. I'd doubt their school kids are missing the equivalent of their leaving cert!? )
They will have done a (much) better job!!!

charlie14

KerryConnor wrote: »

It's taken me a while to clarify the difference, I'm presuming our government is following a strategy of suppression which will involve massive testing and constantly tracking the virus. And Sweden is following a strategy of let it loose which won't involve tracking.
For 20% vulnerable to becoming v ill I think the Swedish model is horrific. They just have to take their chances when they leave the house. But hopefully we ll suppress the virus successfully and constantly test n track new clusters. It makes going out into the community so much safer.

The vulnerable percentage here is probably even higher.

14% of our population are over 65,and we have 170,000 living with cancer. Add all the others with suppressed immunity due to ongoing medical treatment plus all those with underlying conditions such as high blood pressure, diabetes etc and 20% is probably a conservative estimate.

Cupatae

Breezin wrote: »

Whew! Saved by Scotland again!


Almost last then.

I'd rather be last out of it and have it done right than, first out and have the place back to square one in a few weeks

charlie14

daithi7 wrote: »

Assuming no vaccine for ~24months, It all depends on the level of infection in both populations.

If Sweden have had a proportional number of fatalities to the level of infection in their population (& hence resultant inoculation), then Portugal will ultimately catch up on the number of fatalities, but Sweden won't have thrashed their economy trying to defend the unbeatable....

This is the big, unanswered question with Sweden's strategy versus Portugal's, and other countries,
like Ireland's. If the Swedes do end up with similar levels of fatalities per million to Portugal & Ireland , without ever overwhelming their ICUs, which they seem to be managing, then they will have managed a similar net result with much less short & long term damage to their economy & way of life.
(E.g. I'd doubt their school kids are missing the equivalent of their leaving cert!? )
They will have done a (much) better job!!!

I wish people would stop using the word inoculation in relation to the Swedish strategy. Vaccination against a disease or virus is commonly know as inoculation. That is not what Sweden is doing.

They are exposing a large part of their population attempting to gain immunity by the infected producing antibodies.


What ever about their way of life their neither their own Central Bank or their independent Institute of Economic Research forecasts their economy to do any better that other European countries that have used lockdown. Worse than a few of those countries in fact.

Breezin

Cupatae wrote: »

I'd rather be last out of it

Then by definition you are literally an extremist, supporting an extremist policy that is doing untold damage to our country.

Harry Palmr

Current projections for

Sweden https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden 5,760 COVID-19 deaths
projected by August 4, 2020

Ireland https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland 1,736 COVID-19 deaths
projected by August 4, 2020

but these are A a week old and B from the IHME who didn't cover themselves in glory with an early estimate for Ireland (just 400 dead end of May) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-infection-peak-may-have-passed-but-death-toll-could-hit-400-by-may-report-forecasts-1.4223259

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

What Username Guidelines

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Current projections for

Sweden https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden 5,760 COVID-19 deaths
projected by August 4, 2020

Ireland https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland 1,736 COVID-19 deaths
projected by August 4, 2020

but these are A a week old and B from the IHME who didn't cover themselves in glory with an early estimate for Ireland (just 400 dead end of May) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-infection-peak-may-have-passed-but-death-toll-could-hit-400-by-may-report-forecasts-1.4223259

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

The IHME model updates upwards frequently and assumes social distancing to the extent we have it now until August. It’s pretty brutal.

thebaz

Some balanced input on Covid from a Professor in Cancer :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk2YZfnsOPg

In the UK , some 50,000 could die from cancer , and listening to many here and our own Minister and task force (our Nanny state) you would think ther is no other problem in the world - except Covid.