Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

MOH wrote: »

Lower % than Belgium, France, Italy, UK, Hungary, Netherlands.
Bit higher than Spain (10%).

Not sure how useful that is as a statistic, the US is under 6% compared to our 6.3. And they hardly seem a paragon of a cohesive strategy.

Worth noting too that the total number of known Swedish cases is around the total number of deaths we've been told our modelling was predicting if we hadn't had a lockdown. Which definitely seems to support the argument that people's own social distancing there is far more effective than ours.

imho it supports the argument that many who had sense in Sweden were not that keen on the whole immunity thing and social distanced themselves to a greater degree than the authorities were recommending. The level of single and double occupancy households in Sweden would also have helped. Over 40% of Swedes live alone.

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

Seems you and and others jumped on that too fast and read into it what you wished he said That he approved of Sweden`strategy.
Last Monday`s press briefing in Geneva cleared that up.
I always thought that his original remarks were clear that all countries should aim to get to the stage where they could ease restrictions to Sweden`s level. Not that he endorsed Sweden`s strategy.


Sweden has said many things, as have some here who are now calling it inoculation. We were told here last week by a poster from Sweden that they are now carrying out a major testing regime on the level of immunity in Stockholm. They are carrying out little testing for the virus in the general public, yet carrying out a large scale survey on immunity.
Stop fooling yourself. Dr. Mike Ryan isn`t fooled.



Or do you think his remarks last week were aimed at someone other than Sweden

He literally said it. Lit.Er.Ally. Watch the video!
What more do you want? Nothing will satisfy you until you have your own Mike Ryan sock puppet to validate your opinion.
As for whom he was targeting in his discussion of herd immunity, he didn't specify Sweden,. I'm sure he is familiar with their policy, and so understands that herd immunity is not their objective. Whereas he explicitly named them as a model going forward. As to who else he intended to target, you'll have to ask him.
You have a problem with nuance in general, and in particular with the difference between immunity and herd immunity. Maybe you should write a stiff memo to the WHO, and Sweden, to simplify things for you. Remember to tell them that a Sun piece the other day was too challenging for you, and you couldn't navigate beyond the headline.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

He literally said it. Lit.Er.Ally. Watch the video!
What more do you want? Nothing will satisfy you until you have your own Mike Ryan sock puppet to validate your opinion.
As for whom he was targeting in his discussion of herd immunity, he didn't specify Sweden,. I'm sure he is familiar with their policy, and so understands that herd immunity is not their objective. Whereas he explicitly named them as a model going forward. As to who else he intended to target, you'll have to ask him.
You have a problem with nuance in general, and in particular with the difference between immunity and herd immunity. Maybe you should write a stiff memo to the WHO, and Sweden, to simplify things for you. Remember to tell them that a Sun piece the other day was too challenging for you, and you couldn't navigate beyond the headline.

What he literally said, and what was Lir.Er.Ally said in newspapers was that Sweden was a model for coronavirus normal and that Sweden was a model for countries going forward. NOT a model strategy to get there.
I am not the one with a problem with nuance. Neither am I someone that for their own agenda adds 2 and 2 and thinks it should be 5.


The WHO do not publicly criticise countries strategies and you can cover your ears and eyes and get as cranky as you wish, but Mike Ryan 8 days ago without actually naming the country made it very clear who he was referring to and why.


Your Sun piece was laughable.
The headline had your expert from Sweden telling us how poorly we were going to perform economically because of lockdown, but didn`t even know that last month his own Central Bank and Institute of Economic Research stated Sweden was going to do no better. Possibly worse.

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

The WHO do not publicly criticise countries strategies.

Grand so. Glad we cleared that up.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

Grand so. Glad we cleared that up.

No problem.

Yeah,from last Monday`s Geneva press briefing by Dr. Mike Ryan executive director of the WHO`s health emergencies programme, I don`t believe there can be much doubt who he was referring too and what he thought of their strategy with his "Humans are not herds" and follow up comments.

Breezin

Swedish model trades more disease for less economic damage

It's a financial newspaper, but the model also is incurring - arguably more importantly - less social damage.

Bloomberg Economics expects the economy to shrink 5.6 per cent in 2020, versus 8.1 per cent for the nations of the euro zone.

Isolate the most vulnerable while allowing the disease to spread gradually through the rest of the population, most of whom will get only mildly ill. That will increase resilience.

Such a strategy can be tolerated for years, in case that’s how long it takes for a vaccine and antiviral drugs to be developed.

JimmyVik

I cant make any sense out of Swedens numbers.
I think there is serious massaging of figures going on.
Their new cases and deaths seem to be up and down like a yoyo.
And their testing rate is very low too.
I think if actual accurate numbers come out in future, Sweden is going to look very bad. I suspect things are being hidden big time in Sweden. Its more like a cull.

Breezin

JimmyVik wrote: »

I cant make any sense out of Swedens numbers.
I think there is serious massaging of figures going on.
Their new cases and deaths seem to be up and down like a yoyo.
And their testing rate is very low too.
I think if actual accurate numbers come out in future, Sweden is going to look very bad. I suspect things are being hidden big time in Sweden. Its more like a cull.

And our figures reported with religious reverence each evening are a model of statistical rigour? I know which administration I would trust if my life depended on it.

If you are concerned about people being exposed to the virus, you might look closer to home, starting with the absolute scandal unfolding in meat slaughter houses.

Danno

JimmyVik wrote: »

I cant make any sense out of Swedens numbers.
I think there is serious massaging of figures going on.
Their new cases and deaths seem to be up and down like a yoyo.
And their testing rate is very low too.
I think if actual accurate numbers come out in future, Sweden is going to look very bad. I suspect things are being hidden big time in Sweden. Its more like a cull.

Sweden seem to update much of their weekend numbers at the start of the week, there is some evidence for that here too if you look at our trends.

Also, we have found several cases down the back of a couch in the Mater recently, as well as last month with cases dating back to March that were returned from Germany, so we're not exactly consistent with reporting of cases.

With the lockdown here gone on for so long, the purpose of testing is gradually loosing its currency. We should be at a stage now where we ought to be rolling out a comprehensive antibody test and start issuing immunity passports to allow our country fully re-open.

We know that there are ~25,000 at an absolute minimum that are immune now - it's high time they were allowed "the freedom of Ireland" once more.

JimmyVik

Breezin wrote: »

And our figures reported with religious reverence each evening are a model of statistical rigour? I know which administration I would trust if my life depended on it.

If you are concerned about people being exposed to the virus, you might look closer to home, starting with the absolute scandal unfolding in meat slaughter houses.

While not great, our reporting and testing numbers are light years ahead of Swedens.

You dont say something is not sh1t, just because something else is sh!t too.

charlie14

Danno wrote: »

Sweden seem to update much of their weekend numbers at the start of the week, there is some evidence for that here too if you look at our trends.

Also, we have found several cases down the back of a couch in the Mater recently, as well as last month with cases dating back to March that were returned from Germany, so we're not exactly consistent with reporting of cases.

With the lockdown here gone on for so long, the purpose of testing is gradually loosing its currency. We should be at a stage now where we ought to be rolling out a comprehensive antibody test and start issuing immunity passports to allow our country fully re-open.

We know that there are ~25,000 at an absolute minimum that are immune now - it's high time they were allowed "the freedom of Ireland" once more.

Where did you get this 25,000 at an absolute minimum that are immune from ?


Far as I know, those Mater cases were numbers that tested positive, not deaths from the virus.
Sweden only reports deaths of those who have previously tested positive and do not include those who may have died from the virus but had not been tested prior to them passing it appears.

If that is so, then Sweden`s low testing numbers compared to other countries, will be under counting those who actually died from this virus

charlie14

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PhoenixParker

JimmyVik wrote: »

I cant make any sense out of Swedens numbers.
I think there is serious massaging of figures going on.
Their new cases and deaths seem to be up and down like a yoyo.
And their testing rate is very low too.
I think if actual accurate numbers come out in future, Sweden is going to look very bad. I suspect things are being hidden big time in Sweden. Its more like a cull.

Euromomo.eu is the place to look for accurate numbers. It tracks mortality across the EU. The data is generally only reliable three weeks in the past or further back as deaths take time to report. Ireland's data is currently not reliable since March, which they note in their paragraphs for Week 19.

It'll be another few weeks before full comparisons are really possible.

JC 3.14159

JimmyVik wrote: »

I cant make any sense out of Swedens numbers.
I think there is serious massaging of figures going on.
Their new cases and deaths seem to be up and down like a yoyo.
And their testing rate is very low too.
I think if actual accurate numbers come out in future, Sweden is going to look very bad. I suspect things are being hidden big time in Sweden. Its more like a cull.

The reporting is jumpy because of weekends, and April/May have a few bank holidays which can make things look odd.

Excess deaths were discussed here this week (don't just read the headline!):
https://www.thelocal.se/20200518/april-was-swedens-deadliest-month-in-two-decades

This is a count of all deaths, regardless of cause.

Deaths were high in April 2020, but not worst-month-ever high, which was December 1993 or January 2000, depending on whether you correct for population growth. Both of those months' figures were caused by unusually severe outbreaks of the seasonal flu.

Taking figures from Statistics Sweden (link in thelocal.se article above): Average deaths for the month of April (2015-2019) is 7493.
Total deaths for April 2020 is 10295. So ~2800 higher than average.

Official Covid deaths for the month of April (from FHM website below) were 2536.

All countries are seeing a general increase in deaths due to stretched health services, cancelled medical treatments and people delaying hospital visits to avoid clogging the system up. The extra 200-300 April deaths could be explained by that, or possibly there are some missed Covid diagnoses. But on the other hand there are people who test positive for Covid, but die of something else. There'll be a +/- for all countries.

Everything (health, tax, services, pensions, bills) in Sweden is connected to a persons 'personnummer'. The idea that numbers are being massaged on a large scale (or at all) is difficult to believe.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/

Breezin

JimmyVik wrote: »

While not great, our reporting and testing numbers are light years ahead of Swedens.

Really not sure about that, given the bloopers already seen in spite of the near OCD stage management.

JimmyVik wrote: »

You dont say something is not sh1t, just because something else is sh!t too.

You're right. I think both, with those of others, not least the UK, are probably ****, and the main thing to watch is the long-term curve direction.

greyday

The majority of people I have spoke to about Sweden seem to believe they are hiding their true numbers as the backlash from the public will be severe when they find out how many died.
Do people really believe that Sweden with a limited lockdown have similar number to Countries that have had hard lockdowns.
If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck.................................

wakka12

charlie14 wrote: »

Where did you get this 25,000 at an absolute minimum that are immune from ?


Far as I know, those Mater cases were numbers that tested positive, not deaths from the virus.
Sweden only reports deaths of those who have previously tested positive and do not include those who may have died from the virus but had not been tested prior to them passing it appears.

If that is so, then Sweden`s low testing numbers compared to other countries, will be under counting those who actually died from this virus

25,000 is how many positive cases we have

charlie14

wakka12 wrote: »

25,000 is how many positive cases we have

All of those 25,000 have now developed immunity to such a level that they somehow as the poster put it be "allowed the freedom of Ireland" ?
Sounded more hyperbole to me than anything based on science.
Especially in light of the recent Spanish and French extensive research results.


Then again, maybe the poster meant let them off in a little herd of their own to roam way from everyone else.

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

update on this

28th April, originally reported at 34, now 74

29th April, originally 26, now 80

continuing update on this

28th April, originally reported at 34, now 78

29th April, originally 26, now 82

its funny when posters say this in regards to ireland:

Also, we have found several cases down the back of a couch in the Mater recently, as well as last month with cases dating back to March that were returned from Germany, so we're not exactly consistent with reporting of cases.

sweden are finding deaths "down the back of the couch" continuously

Their historic numbers are rising all the time.

originally they reported the 8th april as their peak with 108 deaths and that rates were dropping ever since..... however they had (to date) 116 on the 15th and 110 on the 16th.

Harry Palmr

Today's figures - 724 new cases and 88 new deaths

tobefrank321

sydthebeat wrote: »

continuing update on this

28th April, originally reported at 34, now 78

29th April, originally 26, now 82

its funny when posters say this in regards to ireland:


sweden are finding deaths "down the back of the couch" continuously

Their historic numbers are rising all the time.

originally they reported the 8th april as their peak with 108 deaths and that rates were dropping ever since..... however they had (to date) 116 on the 15th and 110 on the 16th.

Every country is finding deaths down the back of the couch - UK, Ireland, France, Italy, US (1700 from NY nursing homes alone were added).

The idea that Sweden is alone in finding new deaths is a nonsense.

Also, the Swedes took in tens if not hundreds of thousands of asylym seekers in recent years, when other countries wouldn't touch them. Ireland took in a minimal amount. It looks like covid19 spread in this migrant community in Sweden might be a major driver of their spread both inside and outside nursing homes. An unforeseen result of their welcoming society.

The prevalence of covid 19 in BAME communities is well established at this stage, one of the reasons Ireland, Norway, Finland etc are likely not as bad as Sweden. The migrant communities do not practice social distancing in the same way as native Swedes.

The whole thing is a complicated picture, so to sum it up as "Sweden is deliberately trying to kill all its old people" or stuff like that is a nonsense.

sydthebeat

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The idea that Sweden is alone in finding new deaths is a nonsense.

im not saying that... im saying they are continuously adding to their daily numbers.

ireland are not adding to their past reported numbers on a daily basis.
ireland had 1 day (24th april) in which they added a group of 185 "probable" deaths and since then they have not added any historical death figure to any previously reported date.

my point is Sweden are doing it ALL THE TIME

so when sweden come out today and report 88 deaths, they do not mean 88 deaths within the last few days... these numbers include deaths only being reported now from over a month ago. So following their daily reports is a complete waste of time to try to see any trend.


and im not sure why you posted this:

to sum it up as "Sweden is deliberately trying to kill all its old people" or stuff like that is a nonsense.

you put into quotation marks something i very obviously didn't say in the post from me which you quoted.

biko

31523 known cases
3831 officially dead
12.1% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Danno

charlie14 wrote: »

All of those 25,000 have now developed immunity to such a level that they somehow as the poster put it be "allowed the freedom of Ireland" ?
Sounded more hyperbole to me than anything based on science.
Especially in light of the recent Spanish and French extensive research results.


Then again, maybe the poster meant let them off in a little herd of their own to roam way from everyone else.

Is immunity to Covid-19 post-infection and recovery hyperbole?

Shame that, considering the hundreds of medical companies out there putting such efforts into antibody testing and the likes.

We know for sure, without a shadow of a doubt, that ~25,000 in Ireland have had the virus and recovered from it. There will be many more too (hence why I said at a minimum) who decided to stay at home and recover with a very mild illness and lots more in addition who had the virus and didn't even know they had it.

With proper management and testing we should be using key workers who are immune to work the front line near and with the most vulnerable (obviously continuing hand hygiene) which would allow the rest of the population to return to normality. This effort would create a firewall between infection and those most vulnerable.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Every country is finding deaths down the back of the couch - UK, Ireland, France, Italy, US (1700 from NY nursing homes alone were added).

The idea that Sweden is alone in finding new deaths is a nonsense.

Also, the Swedes took in tens if not hundreds of thousands of asylym seekers in recent years, when other countries wouldn't touch them. Ireland took in a minimal amount. It looks like covid19 spread in this migrant community in Sweden might be a major driver of their spread both inside and outside nursing homes. An unforeseen result of their welcoming society.

The prevalence of covid 19 in BAME communities is well established at this stage, one of the reasons Ireland, Norway, Finland etc are likely not as bad as Sweden. The migrant communities do not practice social distancing in the same way as native Swedes.

The whole thing is a complicated picture, so to sum it up as "Sweden is deliberately trying to kill all its old people" or stuff like that is a nonsense.

But are Sweden not being caught between two stools ?
Their Ro number is nowhere near the level required to reach herd immunity, and their strategy to limit the spread is poor when you consider their on-going confirmed cases.

sydthebeat

charlie14 wrote: »

But are Sweden not being caught between two stools ?
Their Ro number is nowhere near the level required to reach herd immunity, and their strategy to limit the spread is poor when you consider their on-going confirmed cases.

ye they are basically in the worst of all worlds

their ICUs never became over run, yet their death rate is very high due to community spread throughout vulnerable groups due to a lack of a lockdown

Lack of adequate testing to ensure they know what the accurate R0 is in the country, in order quantify and coordinate accordingly.

No "herd immunity" forthcoming as the rate of spread is actually too low over the time period

and no immunity from the economic effects of the virus and high unemployment rates to follow

wakka12

Sweden and UK now the only European countries really reporting major daily death tolls.
Belarus is also reporting the highest number of daily cases per capita in Europe recently, and they are not doing that much testing at all really.

So the two countries with softest lockdowns, and another with a late lockdown, now doing the worst in Europe..doesnt loook good for the anti lockdown argument.

AdamD

sydthebeat wrote: »

ye they are basically in the worst of all worlds

their ICUs never became over run, yet their death rate is very high due to community spread throughout vulnerable groups due to a lack of a lockdown

Lack of adequate testing to ensure they know what the accurate R0 is in the country, in order quantify and coordinate accordingly.

No "herd immunity" forthcoming as the rate of spread is actually too low over the time period

and no immunity from the economic effects of the virus and high unemployment rates to follow

Depends really. Their economy will still be hit but not as hard as if they fully locked down. If there was a second 'surge' throughout Europe Sweden theoretically wouldn't be hit as hard either due to higher immunity.

But really its just far too soon to judge any of this. If treatments were to improve in the mean time Sweden could look quite bad

charlie14

Danno wrote: »

Is immunity to Covid-19 post-infection and recovery hyperbole?

Shame that, considering the hundreds of medical companies out there putting such efforts into antibody testing and the likes.

We know for sure, without a shadow of a doubt, that ~25,000 in Ireland have had the virus and recovered from it. There will be many more too (hence why I said at a minimum) who decided to stay at home and recover with a very mild illness and lots more in addition who had the virus and didn't even know they had it.

With proper management and testing we should be using key workers who are immune to work the front line near and with the most vulnerable (obviously continuing hand hygiene) which would allow the rest of the population to return to normality. This effort would create a firewall between infection and those most vulnerable.

We know how many have tested positive and survived.
We do not know what level of immunity they have if any, or how long it could possibly last for.
Therefore there is nothing to show that any of them can not become re-infected and contaminate others.
What you are proposing is no different than saying anyone that has tested negative should be "allowed the freedom of Ireland" It`s hyperbole.
From blood testing of 70,000 participants in Spain they determined that possibly 2 million were infected without knowing so, but even at that nationally only 5% of the population had developed antibody`s. France from research by Pasteur Institute determined it at 4.4%
Weak firewalls.

charlie14

AdamD wrote: »

Depends really. Their economy will still be hit but not as hard as if they fully locked down. If there was a second 'surge' throughout Europe Sweden theoretically wouldn't be hit as hard either due to higher immunity.

But really its just far too soon to judge any of this. If treatments were to improve in the mean time Sweden could look quite bad

Sweden`s own Central Bank predicts best case scenario they will do no better than other EU countries that used lockdown. Worse than a few even best case. Sweden`s independent economic think tank the National Institute for Economic Research figures are the same. So no economic benefit from their strategy,
Theoretical immunity is on thing, but from extensive research by others the levels are very low for those that have developed antibody`s.