Sweden avoiding lockdown

tobefrank321

sydthebeat wrote: »

you put into quotation marks something i very obviously didn't say in the post from me which you quoted.

Irelands deaths are also from weeks ago in many cases.

You didn't say it, but there are some people who say or imply that the Swedes view their elderly as expendable. More likely the majority believe it makes no sense to shut down their economy and schools in order to save a relatively small number of elderly who were already on deaths door or a few months off it. It makes more sense to "lockdown" the nursing homes and care homes.

What Username Guidelines

charlie14 wrote: »

But are Sweden not being caught between two stools ?
Their Ro number is nowhere near the level required to reach herd immunity, and their strategy to limit the spread is poor when you consider their on-going confirmed cases.

We know so little about this virus that R0 might have dipped below zero as the virus has run its course in Sweden. We don’t know about innate immunity or genetic factors. Maybe it’s not about herd immunity hitting 60-70% but rather there are a certain % susceptible to it and they may be at or near it. Like lots of things with this pandemic, it’s hard to judge until it’s over. And it’s hard to know when it’s over too.

sydthebeat

wakka12 wrote: »

Sweden and UK now the only European countries really reporting major death daily tolls now

Belarus is also reporting the highest number of daily cases per capita in Europe recently, and they are not doing that much testing at all really.

So the two countries with softest lockdowns, and another with a late lockdown now doing the worst in Europe..doesnt loook good for the anti lockdown argument

wait till the "but its still the short term" argument is rolled out.....

belarus, a country with a similar population to sweden, must have an absolutely world class futuristic health service if they have had the same number of cases as sweden, but only 179 deaths in comparison to swedens 3831 !!

hardly anything been swept under the carpet there methinks

silverharp

sydthebeat wrote: »

wait till the "but its still the short term" argument is rolled out.....

belarus, a country with a similar population to sweden, must have an absolutely world class futuristic health service if they have had the same number of cases as sweden, but only 179 deaths in comparison to swedens 3831 !!

hardly anything been swept under the carpet there methinks

3/4 of Sweden's deaths were in care homes and other residential care. Maybe a less sophisticated system has advantages, though I'd say Belarus are lying as well

JimmyVik

biko wrote: »

31523 known cases
3831 officially dead
12.1% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

So either they have the highest mortality rate in the world or they are waiting til people die to report them as a positive case.
Clearly Mega massaging of figures going on.
Just because you arent testing doesnt mean you dont have the cases.
Sweden are sacrificing their elderly and weakened citizens and covering it up with lies, damn lies and statistics.

tobefrank321

Ireland delays reporting some deaths by a month or more - "world class reporting", "making sure they have it correct", etc etc

Sweden delays reporting some deaths by a month or more - "those damn Swedes are hiding deaths, massaging the numbers, finding them down the back of the couch".

Or maybe every country is the same?

The Swedes were one of the first countries to report nursing and care home deaths. They didn't have to, but they did.

AdamD

What is the rationale behind Sweden's lack of testing?

tobefrank321

AdamD wrote: »

What is the rationale behind Sweden's lack of testing?

They've probably decided its reached a stage that it cannot be contained and they might as well live with it. Without testing they cannot do contact tracing and also those who are positive will probably not isolate.

The Swedes problem is the nursing and care homes. They need to do a better job of that such as testing patients and workers in those homes like is being done in Ireland.

Onesea

JimmyVik wrote: »

So either they have the highest mortality rate in the world or they are waiting til people die to report them as a positive case.
Clearly Mega massaging of figures going on.
Just because you arent testing doesnt mean you dont have the cases.
Sweden are sacrificing their elderly and weakened citizens and covering it up with lies, damn lies and statistics.

The African nations are hiding 1/4 of a billion deaths too..

If it weren't for the internet we would have a news feed detailing an illness killi g old people in homes.

JimmyVik

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Ireland delays reporting some deaths by a month or more - "world class reporting", "making sure they have it correct", etc etc

Sweden delays reporting some deaths by a month or more - "those damn Swedes are hiding deaths, massaging the numbers, finding them down the back of the couch".

Or maybe every country is the same?

The Swedes were one of the first countries to report nursing and care home deaths. They didn't have to, but they did.

Seriously ??? You dont see a difference between what Sweden are doing and what Ireland are doing?

JimmyVik

Onesea wrote: »

The African nations are hiding 1/4 of a billion deaths too..

If it weren't for the internet we would have a news feed detailing an illness killi g old people in homes.

I dont doubt it. But people are holding Sweden up as a shining light. They are nowhere near it.

wakka12

sydthebeat wrote: »

wait till the "but its still the short term" argument is rolled out.....

belarus, a country with a similar population to sweden, must have an absolutely world class futuristic health service if they have had the same number of cases as sweden, but only 179 deaths in comparison to swedens 3831 !!

hardly anything been swept under the carpet there methinks

Yeh it's just not possible, Belarus has similar age demographic to Sweden but a much less healthy population, life expectancy only 74 there, huge rates of alcholism, hypertension,65% of Belrussians overweight 55% of Swedes.

Article posted a few days about an interview with a doctor in a hospital in Minsk who said death toll there was underreported by at least a factor of 5

wakka12

silverharp wrote: »

3/4 of Sweden's deaths were in care homes and other residential care. Maybe a less sophisticated system has advantages, though I'd say Belarus are lying as well

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-52704836
49%, not 3/4, sorry to nitpick, but for the purpose of the discussion at hand it's important that pretty significant statistical variations arent thrown around so willy nilly, it's confusing and distracting

Onesea

JimmyVik wrote: »

I dont doubt it. But people are holding Sweden up as a shining light. They are nowhere near it.

They are practicing the most sustainable way of dealing with this corona virus. Its not like the hospitals are full or anything.

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

Seriously ??? You dont see a difference between what Sweden are doing and what Ireland are doing?

In what way? Delayed reporting of deaths?

You realise if Tony Holohan says "today there were 30 covid deaths notified to us", some of those deaths might have been from weeks ago? They are not deaths from today or yesterday, they are notified deaths, notified today or in the last 24 hours.

niallo27

wakka12 wrote: »

Sweden and UK now the only European countries really reporting major daily death tolls.
Belarus is also reporting the highest number of daily cases per capita in Europe recently, and they are not doing that much testing at all really.

So the two countries with softest lockdowns, and another with a late lockdown, now doing the worst in Europe..doesnt loook good for the anti lockdown argument.

They are averaging about 45 a day for the last 5 days, France, Spain and Italy are reporting much higher numbers. They are a long way from being the worst in Europe.

JimmyVik

tobefrank321 wrote: »

In what way? Delayed reporting of deaths?

You realise if Tony Holohan says "today there were 30 covid deaths notified to us", some of those deaths might have been from weeks ago? They are not deaths from today or yesterday, they are notified deaths, notified today or in the last 24 hours.

Im sorry but this tells me all I need to know about how Sweden are handling it and reporting compared to Ireland.

Total deaths per million.
Ireland - 317
Sweden - 380

Total cases per million.
Ireland - 4,918
Sweden - 3,124

On another note. I see Iran are on their second wave now.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

All of those 25,000 have now developed immunity to such a level that they somehow as the poster put it be "allowed the freedom of Ireland" ?
Sounded more hyperbole to me than anything based on science.
Especially in light of the recent Spanish and French extensive research results.


Then again, maybe the poster meant let them off in a little herd of their own to roam way from everyone else.

It doesn't matter if you don't think those who had covid 19 are now immune (for short, medium or long term).

The common consensus among experts is once you've had it, you are immune until such time as it can be proved otherwise - ie re-infected. So far out of 4.5 million cases and counting there hasn't been a single proved case of reinfection.

Lets go with the experts on this one.

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

Im sorry but this tells me all I need to know about how Sweden are handling it and reporting compared to Ireland.

Total deaths per million.
Ireland - 317
Sweden - 380

Total cases per million.
Ireland - 4,918
Sweden - 3,124

On another note. I see Iran are on their second wave now.

Different countries have different ways of reporting.

Sweden have little or no interest in testing Mary, aged 25, with mild or minor symptoms and who gets over it after two weeks. They are interested in testing those who turn up in hospitals or showing symptoms in care homes.

wakka12

niallo27 wrote: »

They are averaging about 45 a day for the last 5 days, France, Spain and Italy are reporting much higher numbers. They are a long way from being the worst in Europe.

The last 5 days those countries are averaging considerably lower than Sweden per capita. They are 6 times the population of Sweden

tobefrank321

wakka12 wrote: »

The last 5 days those countries are averaging considerably lower than Sweden per capita. They are 6 times the population of Sweden

But overall, Sweden is well behind them in total numbers.

UK has about 45,000 deaths counting all settings, which is about 12 times Swedens, with 6.5 times the population. The other countries similarly.

So longer term so far, Sweden are doing far better than UK, France, Italy and Spain.

Sweden may catch up, but then those other countries are opening up and may well have a second wave.

charlie14

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

We know so little about this virus that R0 might have dipped below zero as the virus has run its course in Sweden. We don’t know about innate immunity or genetic factors. Maybe it’s not about herd immunity hitting 60-70% but rather there are a certain % susceptible to it and they may be at or near it. Like lots of things with this pandemic, it’s hard to judge until it’s over. And it’s hard to know when it’s over too.

Perhaps it has run it`s course in Sweden, but you could question how come the % of deaths in other countries ran so much higher per 100,000 than in Sweden .

What Username Guidelines

charlie14 wrote: »

Perhaps it has run it`s course in Sweden, but you could question how come the % of deaths in other countries ran so much higher per 100,000 than in Sweden .

That's the genetics part, pure speculation on my part, but perhaps less BAME and less underlying conditions? Vitamin D? Etc. There are so many unknowns, it just seems strange that Sweden's ICU numbers are dropping rather than climbing. Something going on.

ednwireland

does anyone believe anyones numbers at this point ?

wakka12

ednwireland wrote: »

does anyone believe anyones numbers at this point ?

Ireland , Sweden, Belgium,Canada, Germany, don't see why you wouldnt believe any of these countries, numbers are in line with excess mortality rates, count care home deaths, high rates of testing with the exception of sweden though they give reasons as to why this is

Most developing countries numbers though are almost useless to compare to

YFlyer

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

That's the genetics part, pure speculation on my part, but perhaps less BAME and less underlying conditions? Vitamin D? Etc. There are so many unknowns, it just seems strange that Sweden's ICU numbers are dropping rather than climbing. Something going on.

Easy. Keep the patients away.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

It doesn't matter if you don't think those who had covid 19 are now immune (for short, medium or long term).

The common consensus among experts is once you've had it, you are immune until such time as it can be proved otherwise - ie re-infected. So far out of 4.5 million cases and counting there hasn't been a single proved case of reinfection.

Lets go with the experts on this one.

So are you in favour of what that poster was looking for, allowing all those that have tested positive and recovered to be "allowed the freedom of Ireland"?

With lockdown for the rest of the population I imagine regulating it would be a bit of a nightmare, and if any other country using lockdown as a strategy are doing it, I`m not aware of it. But perhaps some are ?

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

So are you in favour of what that poster was looking for, allowing all those that have tested positive and recovered to be "allowed the freedom of Ireland"?

With lockdown for the rest of the population I imagine regulating it would be a bit of a nightmare, and if any other country using lockdown as a strategy are doing it, I`m not aware of it. But perhaps some are ?

Absolutely. These people have suffered enough. Covid 19 and still having to cocoon or isolate or not travel is a double whammy. They should also be allowed travel abroad.
Otherwise we will never get our economy back.

What do you think happens after people get a vaccine? It could take a year for everyone to get a vaccine and many people will refuse or won't bother.

As long as people are practising reasonable hygiene they should be allowed go anywhere post infection or vaccine.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Absolutely. These people have suffered enough. Covid 19 and still having to cocoon or isolate or not travel is a double whammy. They should also be allowed travel abroad.
Otherwise we will never get our economy back.

What do you think happens after people get a vaccine? It could take a year for everyone to get it and many people will refuse or won't bother.

As long as people are practising reasonable hygiene they should be allowed go anywhere post infection or vaccine.

If a vaccine was available and people refused to avail of it then other than make it mandatory not much that could be done,but if they became infected that would be their problem.


If people who have tested positive and recover were not governed by the restrictions, then there would need to be a comprehensive passport type system in operation. Even with that I`m not sure for travel abroad how acceptable it would be in other countries.
For Sweden their neighbours are not exactly rushing out welcoming them with open arms. But then that is because of Sweden`s strategy.

biko

Have you noticed how Sweden have been both talking and not talking about herd immunity?
It was never the strategy but somehow is a great side effect of whatever the strategy was/is.

"Sweden ambassador: Stockholm could reach herd immunity by May"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/sweden-ambassador-stockholm-reach-herd-immunity-200427072044548.html
etc

Turns out only 7.3% of people in Stockholm has antibodies. Way less than hoped for 30-60%
https://www.nyteknik.se/samhalle/det-har-vet-vi-om-coronaviruset-6985117

So Tegnell now discards herd immunity as a "myth" and says only vaccine will work. https://youtu.be/2Mbs-RgittI only in Swedish yet