Sweden avoiding lockdown

thelad95

biko wrote: »

Have you noticed how Sweden have been both talking and not talking about herd immunity?
It was never the strategy but somehow is a great side effect of whatever the strategy was/is.

"Sweden ambassador: Stockholm could reach herd immunity by May"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/sweden-ambassador-stockholm-reach-herd-immunity-200427072044548.html
etc

Turns out only 7.3% of people in Stockholm has antibodies. Way less than hoped for 30-60%
https://www.nyteknik.se/samhalle/det-har-vet-vi-om-coronaviruset-6985117

So Tegnell now discards herd immunity as a "myth" and says only vaccine will work. https://youtu.be/2Mbs-RgittI only in Swedish yet

I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on epidemiology but "achieving herd immunity" is something that has been peddled by tabloidy type media and shared by gormless uneducated people on social media.

Listening to the experts (WHO, Tony Holohan et al), they have all dismissed herd immunity as not only having flimsy scientific grounding but also an extremely dangerous message to send to public masses.

If it was as simple as letting a disease ravage through a community with a few vulnerable casualties while everyone else magically develops antibodies and sure to hell with the our under-resourced health service then wouldn't every country have done this and experts wouldn't have expressed any concerns in the first place?

charlie14

biko wrote: »

Have you noticed how Sweden have been both talking and not talking about herd immunity?
It was never the strategy but somehow is a great side effect of whatever the strategy was/is.

"Sweden ambassador: Stockholm could reach herd immunity by May"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/sweden-ambassador-stockholm-reach-herd-immunity-200427072044548.html
etc

Turns out only 7.3% of people in Stockholm has antibodies. Way less than hoped for 30-60%
https://www.nyteknik.se/samhalle/det-har-vet-vi-om-coronaviruset-6985117

So Tegnell now discards herd immunity as a "myth" and says only vaccine will work. https://youtu.be/2Mbs-RgittI only in Swedish yet

From different claims of immunity levels from Sweden it seemed to be a movable feast whatever way the wind was blowing on any particular day. d


Stockholm 7.3%, Skane 4.2%, Vastra Gotland 3.7%.


Results from samples taken end of April where their Public Health Agency was modeling 25% immunity for Stockholm by May 1st.
Anders Tegnell quoted as saying the figures were "not far off" the modeling figure and claims Stockholm is somewhere around 20% now.


Seems he is still living in hope, but is it even credible with an Ro under 1 that 7.3% could treble in that space of time ?

wakka12

The rate of infection is not surprising at all. Honesty I don't know why anyone thought Sweden would have a uniquely high rate of immunity, if there's not many deaths , there's not many infections.

The Swedish antibody study indicates a lower IFR than the Spanish study though. 0.6% by taking into account the deaths in early April. So it shows how much you cab bring it down by cocooning elderly.

The age distribution of infected is much lower in Sweden than Spain. There is enough certainty now to say that the IFR is almost exactly around 1% if it runs freely throughout all age groups, considerably lower if the elderly and ill protect themselves .

sydthebeat

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Ireland delays reporting some deaths by a month or more - "world class reporting", "making sure they have it correct", etc etc
.

proof please

Mike3287

charlie14 wrote: »

From different claims of immunity levels from Sweden it seemed to be a movable feast whatever way the wind was blowing on any particular day. d


Stockholm 7.3%, Skane 4.2%, Vastra Gotland 3.7%.


Results from samples taken end of April where their Public Health Agency was modeling 25% immunity for Stockholm by May 1st.
Anders Tegnell quoted as saying the figures were "not far off" the modeling figure and claims Stockholm is somewhere around 20% now.


Seems he is still living in hope, but is it even credible with an Ro under 1 that 7.3% could treble in that space of time ?

He might not be far off with regard Stockholm

Article says tests were done last week of April

It takes the body 2 weeks or to so to create antibodies

Thats now only catching early to mid April cases

Start of April they had 500 deaths, mid April 2000 deaths

Now they stand at nearly 4000 deaths

Nothing has changed regarding lockdown etc in that time frame

Could likely be up to past 10% immunity now

faceman

An analysis of Sweden by a boffin

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1262012815663149058?s=20

charlie14

Mike3287 wrote: »

He might not be far off with regard Stockholm

Article says tests were done last week of April

It takes the body 2 weeks or to so to create antibodies

Thats now only catching early to mid April cases

Start of April they had 500 deaths, mid April 2000 deaths

Now they stand at nearly 4000 deaths

Nothing has changed regarding lockdown etc in that time frame

Could likely be up to past 10% immunity now

He wasn`t claiming 10% though. He was claiming double that which is almost 3 times the figure from tests at the end of April when their modeling figure for the beginning of May was 25%

sydthebeat

faceman wrote: »

An analysis of Sweden by a boffin

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1262012815663149058?s=20

wow:

Current excess mortality corresponds to a decline in remaining life expectancy of 3 years for men and 2 years for women. Conclusion: The Covid-19 pandemic has so far had a clear and consistent effect on total mortality in Sweden, with male death rates being comparably more affected.

Mike3287

sydthebeat wrote: »

wow:

25% of deaths there are 90+

Nasty thing to say maybe but does it matter if you die at 91 or 88?

Mike3287

charlie14 wrote: »

He wasn`t claiming 10% though. He was claiming double that which is almost 3 times the figure from tests at the end of April when their modeling figure for the beginning of May was 25%

He was on about 20% alright, but this is herd immunity, 7.5% from 1st/2nd week in April, that's right in line with their models, I wouldn't lynch him just yet

Almost June now,

Ce he sin

Mike3287 wrote: »

25% of deaths there are 90+

Nasty thing to say maybe but does it matter if you die at 91 or 88?

Not to you obviously. Matters if you're 87 though.

wakka12

Mike3287 wrote: »

25% of deaths there are 90+

Nasty thing to say maybe but does it matter if you die at 91 or 88?

The emotional impact will vary with each person I'm sure it matters to 88 year olds who felt healthy but it is an absolutely astonishing and scary statistic regardless

Mike3287

Ce he sin wrote: »

Not to you obviously. Matters if you're 87 though.

If I made it to 80 id be happy

Just saying they have alot of really old people, 90+

tobefrank321

sydthebeat wrote: »

proof please

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0518/1139168-irish-daily-figures/

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said two of the four deaths happened over the weekend.

He said the other two deaths happened in April.

biko

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/sweden-becomes-country-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-per-capita/

Sweden has now overtaken the UK, Italy and Belgium to have the highest coronavirus per capita death rate in the world, throwing its decision to avoid a strict lockdown into further doubt.

biko

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-52704836

Care home residents account for nearly half of deaths linked to Covid-19 in Sweden. Some healthcare workers believe an institutional reluctance to admit patients to hospital is costing lives.

Lili Sedghi's father, Reza, was not seen by a doctor on the day he died from coronavirus, at his care home in northern Stockholm.

A nurse told her he'd had a morphine shot in the hours before he passed away, but he was not given oxygen, nor did staff call an ambulance. "No-one was there and he died alone," says Ms Sedghi. "It's so unfair."

charlie14

Mike3287 wrote: »

He was on about 20% alright, but this is herd immunity, 7.5% from 1st/2nd week in April, that's right in line with their models, I wouldn't lynch him just yet

Almost June now,

Those tests were taken in the last week of April and would include the period where Sweden were supposedly at the peak of their infections.
Last week of April test show 7.3% for Stockholm where their model for the beginning of May was 25%

When you consider that Madrid and surrounding areas tested between 11% and 13% with a lockdown, for Stockholm the epicenter of Sweden`s cases to only test at 7.3% puts it into context.
If Spain based on 70,000 tests put their national herd immunity at 5% and France at 4.4% then on those figures Sweden`s is much lower.

With that 7.3% for just Stockholm alone and them having a Ro below 1 then I cannot see how national herd immunity would ever be achieved

charlie14

Mike3287 wrote: »

If I made it to 80 id be happy

Just saying they have alot of really old people, 90+

If you were to make it to 80 would you not hope to make it to at least 81 and be even happier if you did ?

Mike3287

charlie14 wrote: »

Those tests were taken in the last week of April and would include the period where Sweden were supposedly at the peak of their infections.
Last week of April test show 7.3% for Stockholm where their model for the beginning of May was 25%

When you consider that Madrid and surrounding areas tested between 11% and 13% with a lockdown, for Stockholm the epicenter of Sweden`s cases to only test at 7.3% puts it into context.
If Spain based on 70,000 tests put their national herd immunity at 5% and France at 4.4% then on those figures Sweden`s is much lower.

With that 7.3% for just Stockholm alone and them having a Ro below 1 then I cannot see how national herd immunity would ever be achieved

The peak on infection not antibodies?

They are saying it can take 2 weeks for antibodies to appear in blood and dont we only see antibodies after infection has cleared? Can take some weeks to clear it and make sufficient antibodies to detect?

Those tests in last week of April could be looking at 1st week of April, not the peak

Also know one talks about the K factor

Countries like Denmark have opened up and havent see any massive increase in covid cases, despite easing lockdowns

In that case Sweden wont need herd immunity and have passed the worst

Del Griffith

biko wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/sweden-becomes-country-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-per-capita/

* for this week, not overall. Belgium, Spain, Italy, the UK and France still ahead.

The_Kew_Tour

So those few saying we should have done what Sweden done, Would you still think it’s good idea to have no restrictions for past 2 months?

PhoenixParker

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

So those few saying we should have done what Sweden done, Would you still think it’s good idea to have no restrictions for past 2 months?

Sweden have not had no restrictions. There have been many restrictions there. Your question is kinda loaded.

I don't think we should have done what Sweden did. Our starting point was worse so if we'd flattened the curve at our starting point we would have been much worse off then they currently are.

Sweden won't get to herd immunity before next year at their current curve level. Their economy has tanked anyway. They're ticking along with a flat but quite high case load. Denmark started at the same point, locked down, got their cases much lower and have opened up somewhat. Denmark are now ticking along with a flat but quite low case load.

Sweden and Denmark give me hope. They show that we can open back up quite a bit and keep the curve flat enough to be manageable. Overall I'm glad we're Denmark not Sweden and I remain hopeful that with contact tracing we can open up further still while keeping R low. I do question the extremely drawn out phases we're using to reopen but I can see arguments on both sides.

AdamD

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Sweden have not had no restrictions. There have been many restrictions there. Your question is kinda loaded.

I don't think we should have done what Sweden did. Our starting point was worse so if we'd flattened the curve at our starting point we would have been much worse off then they currently are.

Sweden won't get to herd immunity before next year at their current curve level. Their economy has tanked anyway. They're ticking along with a flat but quite high case load. Denmark started at the same point, locked down, got their cases much lower and have opened up somewhat. Denmark are now ticking along with a flat but quite low case load.

Sweden and Denmark give me hope. They show that we can open back up quite a bit and keep the curve flat enough to be manageable. Overall I'm glad we're Denmark not Sweden and I remain hopeful that with contact tracing we can open up further still while keeping R low. I do question the extremely drawn out phases we're using to reopen but I can see arguments on both sides.

Ireland has 319 deaths per 1m population
Denmark has 96
Sweden has 380

Denmark we certainly ain't

is_that_so

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

So those few saying we should have done what Sweden done, Would you still think it’s good idea to have no restrictions for past 2 months?

What may be suitable for Sweden may not be very effective elsewhere as it depends very heavily on social solidarity and a sense of the primacy of the State. Most countries just do not have that. The level of cases and the approach to care homes shows they have major flaws with it. I think you'd call it a gamble but not one your average national CMO would risk.

JimmyVik

faceman wrote: »

An analysis of Sweden by a boffin

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1262012815663149058?s=20

Jesus.
Its a cull.

charlie14

Mike3287 wrote: »

The peak on infection not antibodies?

They are saying it can take 2 weeks for antibodies to appear in blood and dont we only see antibodies after infection has cleared? Can take some weeks to clear it and make sufficient antibodies to detect?

Those tests in last week of April could be looking at 1st week of April, not the peak

Also know one talks about the K factor

Countries like Denmark have opened up and havent see any massive increase in covid cases, despite easing lockdowns

In that case Sweden wont need herd immunity and have passed the worst

They had allowed two weeks for antibody`s before testing. As they were saying mid April was their peak, testing at the end of April would have included that peak. Which would seem logical if they wished to get a true representative figure.


Denmark is a completely different case to Sweden for comparison.


Denmark used lockdown and to date has 90 deaths per 1 million of population.
Sweden did not and to date has 380 deaths per 1 million of population.
Denmark used lockdown to control the spread of the virus and having brought their levels down have eased restriction.
Sweden didn`t really make a lot of effort to control the spread and banked on immunity.

It is not a case of Sweden not needing herd immunity. It`s a case that on those test figures it just isn`t achievable for quite some time, if ever

seamus

Mike3287 wrote: »

The peak on infection not antibodies?

They are saying it can take 2 weeks for antibodies to appear in blood and dont we only see antibodies after infection has cleared? Can take some weeks to clear it and make sufficient antibodies to detect?

Those tests in last week of April could be looking at 1st week of April, not the peak

Also know one talks about the K factor

Countries like Denmark have opened up and havent see any massive increase in covid cases, despite easing lockdowns

In that case Sweden wont need herd immunity and have passed the worst

You're grasping here, really. No disrespect. Antibodies appear in the blood once the body has learned how to fight the infection. It may take "up to" two weeks for them to appear, but once they're in the blood they can be detected.
They wait a couple of weeks as the volume of free antibodies will be at its greatest just after the infection has been eliminated, which assists the accuracy of any antibody test.

But you don't have to wait until after symptoms are gone to do an antibody test.

JimmyVik wrote: »

Jesus.
Its a cull.

It's a grave mistake. I wouldn't ascribe any malice to this. Ego and hubris perhaps; the Swedish CMO confidently asserting that the rest of the world was taking a gamble while Sweden going its own way, was taking the most predictable approach.

When this done, every country needs to audit the decisions that were made, who made them and the data they were based on. I'm not accusing anyone of anything, but it's hard to see how the Swedish approach cannot in part be blamed on a decison to ignore international data, advice and best practice. And if that happened, someone has to answer for it.

LuckyLloyd

It didn’t work out. People really wanted it to for obvious reasons. Excess deaths will be the final word.

Breezin

Mike3287 wrote: »

In that case Sweden wont need herd immunity and have passed the worst

Correct. This is why they have said a zillion times now that they are not aiming for herd immunity, but rather some immunity.

Regardless of what they say, however, watch their 'herd immunity' policy being taken apart by some sages here.

seamus

Breezin wrote: »

Correct. This is why they have said a zillion times now that they are not aiming for herd immunity, but rather some immunity.

Regardless of what they say, however, watch their 'herd immunity' policy being taken apart by some sages here.

Moving those goalposts so frequently must be hard on the aul back.

Originally Sweden wasn't going for herd immunity. They were flattening the curve without lockdown.

Then they were going for herd immunity. Now they're not again, instead it's "some" immunity.

That latter is completely meaningless. It's another way of saying they're aiming for controlled spread of the infection without any end-goal.