Sweden avoiding lockdown

sheepysheep

bb1234567 wrote: »

I have indeed encountered this incredibly unsubstantiated but very confidently stated opinion numerous times on this boards. The fact I have heard it so many times on here does not lend it an iota more credence. The body of evidence shows that lockdown has saved many lives, not the opposite. Whether it simply moves those deaths down the line, who knows , and whether it was worth the economic impact, is another discussion.

Like COVID, the vast vast majority of people who die from cancer are also very old and usually men. Most people who die are really old in general in Ireland

It's not my opinion. I'm referencing a debate amongst scientists and specialist's in general. They've earned the right to be confident enough to publicly express an opinion when requested.

You're contradicting yourself here. If they've only moved the deaths 12 weeks down the line does that qualify as saving a life.

kaymin

bb1234567 wrote: »

It is remarkable how people of your persuasion make up things such as suicide going up and pretend to be concerned about a newly exaggerated issue that does not even exist. Most evidence shows suicide rates are going down in most places, in for example Japan and New Zealand recent figures prove this.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/05/coronavirus-suicide-rate-was-lower-during-lockdown-than-before-it-provisional-figures-show.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/japan-suicides-fall-sharply-as-covid-19-lockdown-causes-shift-in-stress-factors

People are outside more, spending more time with families, less stressed, sleeping more. It's not all as doom and gloom as you make out.
Btw, the majority of cancer deaths are over 75, before you continue to pain a false image of the average patient being a young pretty girl with a clatter of babies to try and some how take away from the fact so many people have died of COVID.
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer

Is this is the same New Zealand that hardly had a lockdown because they stopped the virus getting into their country in the first place and had a decent tracing set-up in place when it did get in?

As for people spending more time with families etc - yeah great, most people would rather not work. But bills have to be paid and the HSE funded. Time to get real.

Cancer is a slow burner - the neglect of cancer patients for the past 3 months is going to reverberate for years to come.

kaymin

bb1234567 wrote: »

I have indeed encountered this incredibly unsubstantiated but very confidently stated opinion numerous times on this boards. The fact I have heard it so many times on here does not lend it an iota more credence. The body of evidence shows that lockdown has saved many lives, not the opposite. Whether it simply moves those deaths down the line, who knows , and whether it was worth the economic impact, is another discussion.

Like COVID, the vast vast majority of people who die from cancer are also very old and usually men. Most people who die are really old in general in Ireland

Really, very old and mostly men?

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/mortality/age#heading-Zero

sheepysheep

bb1234567 wrote: »

Seriously struggling to see how 'domestic violence, the depression, even suicides' could lead to 150,000 deaths

The increase suicide rates because of lockdown also appears to a false theory based on current precedent in Japan and New Zealand which observed a large decrease in suciide rates because of the lockdown.

I'm just playing the devil's advocate really, I don't think the lockdown was necessarily the best choice, and it definitely should have ended or have been eased long ago, but it's very tiresome seeing so many people post unsubstantiated information such as the lockdown having killed more people than COVID. There is absolutely no evidence of it whatsoever, it is the epitome of scare mongering, something those very posters going on about are usually the first ones to call out others for doing.

You attacked my post for calling out unsubstantiated statements that the Southern Europeans seem to care more about their grandparents than the Northerners. I haven't made any unsubstantiated claims.

The debate about lockdown v Covid-19 deaths is only now beginning to make it to the front pages which is entirely understandable.

There is however already plenty of evidence. Mammograms in Ireland have dropped to practically zero. Now either this is a program is an entire waste of time or it's absence will logically result in many more tragic deaths. Same with HPV.

In all recessions, suicides go up. Economic hardship is a leading cause of suicide in the same way that poverty is the leading cause of death.

Here's a link to research claiming that the 2007 recession led to 10k extra suicides in Europe and North america.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/06/bad-economic-news-increases-suicide-rates-new-research/

it's hard to weigh one set of deaths against another, however, the point a lot of people make is that Covid-19 deaths, in the absence of a vaccine will occur anyway, that it is inevitable, and therefore we might be better off concentrating our efforts on other problems.

bb1234567

kaymin wrote: »

Really, very old and mostly men?

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/mortality/age#heading-Zero

Really really.
Your link states exactly that, 53% of cancer deaths are over 75 years of age. And yes the majority of those who die are men (53%cancer deaths are male). So really really most cancer deaths are very old men, exactly like COVID.
What exactly are you seeing in your link that I can't

kaymin

bb1234567 wrote: »

Really really.
Your link states exactly that, 53% of cancer deaths are over 75 years of age. And yes the majority of those who die are men (53%cancer deaths are male). So really really most cancer deaths are very old men, exactly like COVID.
What exactly are you seeing in your link that I can't

' the vast vast majority' suggests substantially over 50%

'most cancer deaths are very old men' suggests much more than 53%

Hyperbole much?

Also, only 48% of Covid deaths are 75+ years of age. So seemingly not exactly like COVID. In fact a minority are over 75 years of age.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Chiparus

biko wrote: »

Source?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

Loafing Oaf

sheepysheep wrote: »

it's hard to weigh one set of deaths against another, however, the point a lot of people make is that Covid-19 deaths, in the absence of a vaccine will occur anyway, that it is inevitable, and therefore we might be better off concentrating our efforts on other problems.

Of course some deaths are inevitable once this virus gets into a country. The question is how much higher (if at all) our death toll would have been if we had not followed a stringent lockdown policy.

Tea drinker

bb1234567 wrote: »

Link, please.. Relating to a western context. It doesn't sound credible at all. I have hard that 18,000-20,000 more people may die of cancer because of late screenings in the UK but this is the only valid point I have ever heard about lockdown causing more deaths than saving, and this is still tens of thousands less than those already killed by covid, and peraps more than a hundred thousand less if there had been no lockdown.

Screening cancer patients in covid ridden hospitals may have also well lead to thousands of extra deaths among this vulnerable group anyhow.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/28/covid-19-crisis-may-lead-20000-cancer-deaths/

Same as the banking crisis the hospital outcomes will be worse as the Health service runs low on government funding. This (worse outcomes) was admitted by the HSE or medical council some years after the crisis.
I doubt they are commenting because one or 2 people died. We will see at the end of the year what sort of money goes to heallth, and how much of that is diverted to PPE, and then over 5 - 10 years there will be a quiet loss of life.
The suicide rate in banking crisis was higher, and also I suspect a lot of single vehicle accidents were actually suicides.

joeysoap

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Can I ask where you got that figure from?
From what I was aware of there isn't daily reporting during the weekend in Sweden so I'm not sure where you got that number from. There is some delay in deaths from previous time being retrospectively added as tests come in from outside hospitals determining the cause of death but the weekend numbers are normally given on the subsequent Monday / therafter from what I was I aware, I could be wrong though.
Edit - Eventually found a report - https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/67-fler-doda-i-covid-19-senaste-dygnet/
the expat site (thelocal) hasn't even mentioned a Saturday report so was surprised to see a figure.

FWIW I used this site. (bit slow)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

biko

biko wrote: »

Minister for Health and Social Affairs Lena Hallengren said that mid May 100 000 would be tested a week.
So many are tested a week now? 32 700 last week... a third of the goal.
Maybe this week Lena...

And so it happend, Mrs Hallengren now says she was "naive" to believe Sweden could test as much as she promised.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/hallengren-trodde-naivt-att-det-skulle-vara-huggsexa/

biko

Cyprus opens up for Nordic countries, except Sweden.

The first group is comprised of Greece, Malta, Bulgaria, Norway, Austria, Finland, Slovenia, Hungary, Israel, Denmark, Germany, Slovakia and Lithuania.

The second group is made up of Switzerland, Poland, Romania, Croatia, Estonia and the Czech Republic.

https://europost.eu/en/a/view/cyprus-divides-countries-into-groups-for-reopening-flights-29113

kaymin

biko wrote: »

And so it happend, Mrs Hallengren now says she was "naive" to believe Sweden could test as much as she promised.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/hallengren-trodde-naivt-att-det-skulle-vara-huggsexa/

Isn't their goal to flatten the curve which they've succeeded to do? Testing is only important if they are struggling to flatten the curve.

kaymin

biko wrote: »

Cyprus opens up for Nordic countries, except Sweden.

https://europost.eu/en/a/view/cyprus-divides-countries-into-groups-for-reopening-flights-29113

Is this supposedly a measure of their success or failure? By that measure Ireland has failed. It's meaningless tbh.

biko

Chiparus wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

That page doesn't mention a global average/rate.
The numbers are from 2016.
Do you have a clearer source?

biko

kaymin wrote: »

Is this supposedly a measure of their success or failure? By that measure Ireland has failed. It's meaningless tbh.

This thread is for Sweden, not Ireland. Feel free to use the information in an Ireland thread.

kaymin

biko wrote: »

This thread is for Sweden, not Ireland. Feel free to use the information in an Ireland thread.

Is this supposedly a measure of their success or failure? It's meaningless tbh. Perhaps you can answer the question now.

biko

To me, a failure that every other country around them are invited to Cyprus.
Then again, Sweden have magnitudes more dead than their neighbours and for a long time seemed to be the Internet Explorer of Nordic countries..

Breezin

biko wrote: »

This thread is for Sweden, not Ireland. Feel free to use the information in an Ireland thread.

Presumably its purpose is comparative, i.e. outcomes and costs of outcomes.

biko

Such information cannot be gleaned at this time.

Breezin

biko wrote: »

Such information cannot be gleaned at this time.

Too true. As the Swedes never tire of pointing out, it's a long-term exercise.

kaymin

biko wrote: »

To me, a failure that every other country around them are invited to Cyprus.
Then again, Sweden have magnitudes more dead than their neighbours and for a long time seemed to be the Internet Explorer of Nordic countries..

Right, yet seconds later you acknowledge it's too early to judge the different approaches. You seem confused.

biko

I don't have to judge anything, it is Cyprus making this call.

Cyprus is inviting all your neighbours to a holiday, but you're not welcome.
That must sting.

It does sting Sweden because it's all over the tabloids.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/svenskar-portas-nar-cypern-oppnar
https://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/svenskar-portas-n%C3%A4r-cypern-%C3%B6ppnar-1.28340949
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/svenskar-portade-nar-cypern-oppnar-upp-i-borjan-av-juni/

kaymin

biko wrote: »

I don't have to judge anything, it is Cyprus making this call.

Cyprus is inviting all your neighbours to a holiday, but you're not welcome.
That must sting.

It does sting Sweden because it's all over the tabloids.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/svenskar-portas-nar-cypern-oppnar
https://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/svenskar-portas-n%C3%A4r-cypern-%C3%B6ppnar-1.28340949
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/svenskar-portade-nar-cypern-oppnar-upp-i-borjan-av-juni/

Yes but you, not Cyprus, seem to take it as some sort of a conclusion on success or failure - 'To me, a failure that every other country around them are invited to Cyprus'

Personally I don't care what Cyprus does and it has no bearing on whether Sweden's approach is to be judged a success or failure. Hence why I said your post was irrelevant. You seem to be offended by that.

tobefrank321

Not nessecarily a bad thing that Swedes can't go to Cyprus or elsewhere. I'd imagine Swedish hotels could do with the business from staycations, whereas hotels in those other countries will lose customers to abroad.

joeysoap

bb1234567 wrote: »

Sweden does report deaths on Saturday, as there is a lag of a day. So the figures reported today are from Friday. Sweden reports almost no deaths on Sunday and MOnday for this reason

reduced to 6 today though it means little in light of above. I wish there was none everywhere

Charles Babbage

Breezin wrote: »

Too true. As the Swedes never tire of pointing out, it's a long-term exercise.

Indeed, as John Maynard Keynes said, in the long run we are all dead. Some of us are in no hurry to get there though.

PhoenixParker

joeysoap wrote: »

reduced to 6 today though it means little in light of above.

Yip. It was 5 last Sunday and the Sunday before.

charlie14

biko wrote: »

I don't have to judge anything, it is Cyprus making this call.

Cyprus is inviting all your neighbours to a holiday, but you're not welcome.
That must sting.

It does sting Sweden because it's all over the tabloids.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/svenskar-portas-nar-cypern-oppnar
https://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/svenskar-portas-n%C3%A4r-cypern-%C3%B6ppnar-1.28340949
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/svenskar-portade-nar-cypern-oppnar-upp-i-borjan-av-juni/

Just a few weeks ago a poster was confident that Sweden`s strategy
would result in them attracting visitors that would have nowhere else to go.

Beginning to look like the no lock-down strategy could result in lock-outs.

Breezin

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Indeed, as John Maynard Keynes said, in the long run we are all dead. Some of us are in no hurry to get there though.

Nice one. And never a true one spoken. Though, if you think about it, it cuts both ways.