Sweden avoiding lockdown

Breezin

Whose crazy experiment?

https://youtu.be/0UvFHDaVRQo

biko

How time flies..
https://www.aftonbladet.se/a/6j7vaO
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.aftonbladet.se/a/6j7vaO&usg=ALkJrhhnn3-whMQDRKTcNnk4jxgWZBJV5g

Anders Tegnell praises British idea of ​​herd immunity: "Where we need to go"

The UK wants to stop the coronavirus using herd immunity.

The fact that a majority of the inhabitants are infected and create collective protection may also be relevant in Sweden.

- We probably won't be able to control it in any other way, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

The UK will soon isolate the sick and the elderly. Will you do something similar in Sweden?

- We also talked a lot about it. Partly because the staff at seniors 'homes ensure that they stay healthy and tested so that they do not come in with the disease, and partly about prohibiting visits to seniors' homes. So we're talking about the same thing

JimmyVik

Sweden are thinking about the long game in the same way that the generals sending the troops out of the trenches to be all killed by machine gun were thinking about the long game.

biko

biko wrote: »

Minister for Health and Social Affairs Lena Hallengren said that mid May 100 000 would be tested a week.
So many are tested a week now? 32 700 last week... a third of the goal.
Maybe this week Lena...

The promised 100K a week became barely 33K, and is now at 28K.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/farre-testas-for-coronaviruset-knappt-28-800-testades/

biko

AirBaltic starts flying to the Nordic countries, except Sweden (starts mid June)

https://twitter.com/airBaltic/status/1264885718289129473

Breezin

JimmyVik wrote: »

Sweden are thinking about the long game in the same way that the generals sending the troops out of the trenches to be all killed by machine gun were thinking about the long game.

In context, that is a rather excited analogy, don't you think?

DeVore

So, two weeks later and unfortunately for Sweden, things DO look quite grim now...

Britain, US, Brazil and Sweden now topping the polls.... spot anything common between them?

Ash.J.Williams

DeVore wrote: »

So, two weeks later and unfortunately for Sweden, things DO look quite grim now...

Britain, US, Brazil and Sweden now topping the polls.... spot anything common between them?

That officially makes waters and Doherty enemies of the state

Pawwed Rig

Irish deaths per million is still higher than the US. Not sure why US is even included with that group

yosemitesam1

DeVore wrote: »

So, two weeks later and unfortunately for Sweden, things DO look quite grim now...

Britain, US, Brazil and Sweden now topping the polls.... spot anything common between them?

What's so grim about Sweden? Their total mortality figures are back within a normal range and will likely to keep dropping for weeks to come

tobefrank321

It will be interesting to see if Swedish cases decline as they never implemented hard lockdown measures like other countries, and the declines in other countries are linked to those hard lockdowns.

wakka12

tobefrank321 wrote: »

It will be interesting to see if Swedish cases decline as they never implemented hard lockdown measures like other countries, and the declines in other countries are linked to those hard lockdowns.

How could a lockdown not lead to a decline in cases? If you put everyone inside and almost entirely limit interaction, very few new cases emerge, I don't see how anyone could argue with that. Whether similar could have been achieved through much less intense measures is another valid discussion and Sweden has largely proved that at least in a country with that culture/georgaphy/density/age profile that the outbreak can be limited to a pretty manageable level without lockdown. But there is no queestion that lockdowns stop outbreaks, and it may well be a case of cracking a nut with a sledgehammer, but that is the centre of the discussion, not whether lockdowns work at stopping infections.

Onesea

Where is this big spike in deaths? Looks right on the mark for a normal year.

When you dig at the numbers yourself there aren't many spikes in death rate found.

I see various news sources are saying death rates are back to normal winter levels.

charlie14

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

What's so grim about Sweden? Their total mortality figures are back within a normal range and will likely to keep dropping for weeks to come

Pretty grim when you compare them to those of their neighbouring countries. Plus the numbers of new confirmed cases daily considering how little testing they are doing.
Week before last they had the highest deaths per million in Europe, and they are 6th in Europe for deaths per million. Just behind France, and the gap narrowing.

Bridge93

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Irish deaths per million is still higher than the US. Not sure why US is even included with that group

Only a few of the states in the United States are counting deaths outside hospital settings and even they are largely only counting nursing home deaths and not beyond. Impossible to really know the extent of death in the States but estimates range from an additional 30-50,000 people. We'll probably never know.

charlie14

Onesea wrote: »

Where is this big spike in deaths? Looks right on the mark for a normal year.

When you dig at the numbers yourself there aren't many spikes in death rate found.

I see various news sources are saying death rates are back to normal winter levels.

This isn`t Winter though.
For April 2020 they have had the highest number of deaths since December 1993.

Kermit.de.frog

Another 96 deaths today.

It's over as some sort of experiment.

They have dug themselves a hole with no end in sight and those countries that took action very much seeing the light at the end of tunnel with tumbling cases and deaths.

Not not only do they have economic crisis but they don't have control of disease and this is going impact to what extent countries feel they can open their economies to Sweden.

Kermit.de.frog

DeVore wrote: »

So, two weeks later and unfortunately for Sweden, things DO look quite grim now...

Britain, US, Brazil and Sweden now topping the polls.... spot anything common between them?

Sweden has left themselves in a terrible dilemma now.

Economic crisis and without control of the virus.

Other countries were angered by Sweden's decisions here (principally because it undermined their own efforts in the eyes of the public with the "but Sweden" narrative) and they won't be rushing to open their economies to them.

And they have every reason not to because they took harsh measures to get control of the situation.

Doubt many would like to see flights from Stockholm to Dublin any time soon.

yosemitesam1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sweden has left themselves in a terrible dilemma now.

Economic crisis and without control of the virus.

Other countries were angered by Sweden's decisions here (principally because it undermined their own efforts in the eyes of the public with the "but Sweden" narrative) and they won't be rushing to open their economies to them.

And they have every reason not to because they took harsh measures to get control of the situation.

Doubt many would like to see flights from Stockholm to Dublin any time soon.

All cause mortality rates are in a normal range after 8ish weeks of elevation.
Their peak all cause mortality was lower (on a z score basis) than France, Italy and Spain.

It looks like a major success and they're going to come into the coronavirus recession in a much stronger position than we will

Kermit.de.frog

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

All cause mortality rates are in a normal range after 8ish weeks of elevation.
Their peak all cause mortality was lower (on a z score basis) than France, Italy and Spain.

It looks like a major success and they're going to come into the coronavirus recession in a much stronger position than we will

The facts don't really agree with you.

I highly recommend you read the economic projections from Sweden's central bank. They say the economy will tank 7.7% this year at least.

Also there are going to be other consequences. There are countries that will not open to those without control. The United States for example will not be opening it's borders to countries with high rates of infection.

That candle you are holding is disappearing before your eyes.

Harry Palmr

96 dead announced today. Tuesday is catch up day for most systems but in Sweden it seems to be Wednesday that is the biggest day of the day.

yosemitesam1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The facts don't really agree with you.

I highly recommend you read the economic projections from Sweden's central bank. They say the economy will tank 7.7% this year at least.

Also there are going to be other consequences. There are countries that will not open to those without control. The United States for example will not be opening it's borders to countries with high rates of infection.

That candle you are holding is disappearing before your eyes.

The world is entering recession. Business confidence and consumer confidence will be hit far more here than Sweden impacting recovery more here.
People just have yet to realise how many jobs will be lost.

Have they also racked up a spending deficit over the last few weeks similar to ours?

All cause mortality is the most important figure. Sweden's is back to a normal range. If a normal amount of people are dying, what is wrong? There's nothing particularly grimm about normality.

charlie14

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

All cause mortality rates are in a normal range after 8ish weeks of elevation.
Their peak all cause mortality was lower (on a z score basis) than France, Italy and Spain.

It looks like a major success and they're going to come into the coronavirus recession in a much stronger position than we will

Their all causes mortality rate for April is the highest since December 1993.
Two weeks ago they had the highest deaths per million from Covid-19 in Europe.
When you compare like for like their mortality rate for Covid -19 are 3.5 times greater than the combined total of their three neighbours Norway, Denmark and Finland.
They have recently passed out Ireland and the Netherlands for most deaths per population and are now 6th in Europe just behind France with the gap closing.
They have 25% more deaths than Ireland and that gap widening daily.
Their own Central Bank, best case scenario, is not forcasting their economy to do any better than anyone else.

A recent survey comparing their consumer spending when compared to Denmark, who used lock-down, as only 4% greater.
Their own antibody testing on immunity at only around 5% nationally. Same as both Spain and France who used lock-down.



Where do you see the major success in that which indicates they will be in a much stronger position than we will be ?

alwald

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Another 96 deaths today.

It's over as some sort of experiment.

They have dug themselves a hole with no end in sight and those countries that took action very much seeing the light at the end of tunnel with tumbling cases and deaths.

Not not only do they have economic crisis but they don't have control of disease and this is going impact to what extent countries feel they can open their economies to Sweden.

Another worrying figure for Sweden, if we can trust the data of Worldometers, is their number of active cases which stands at over 25K today and is much higher than Ireland (2K), Denmark (821), Norway (412) and Finland (1216).

Their active cases are increasing everyday at a higher rate than other countries and will lead to more deaths in the future.

wakka12

alwald wrote: »

Another worrying figure for Sweden, if we can trust the data of Worldometers, is their number of active cases which stands at over 25K today and is much higher than Ireland (2K), Denmark (821), Norway (412) and Finland (1216).

Their active cases are increasing everyday at a higher rate than other countries and will lead to more deaths in the future.

I would say it has simply not been updated. Worldometers relies on local people sending official news reports to them to update figures

Kermit.de.frog

alwald wrote: »

Another worrying figure for Sweden, if we can trust the data of Worldometers, is their number of active cases which stands at over 25K today and is much higher than Ireland (2K), Denmark (821), Norway (412) and Finland (1216).

Their active cases are increasing everyday at a higher rate than other countries and will lead to more deaths in the future.

Yes and the rise is consistent - and it is that way because they all but abandoned community testing. So it's around 500 literally everyday (in reality probably far higher than that but not picked up)

I just find their whole approach ludicrous as if they were going to gain at the expense of the rest of us. No point taking such risks just for the sake of being different.

charlie14

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The world is entering recession. Business confidence and consumer confidence will be hit far more here than Sweden impacting recovery more here.
People just have yet to realise how many jobs will be lost.

Have they also racked up a spending deficit over the last few weeks similar to ours?

All cause mortality is the most important figure. Sweden's is back to a normal range. If a normal amount of people are dying, what is wrong? There's nothing particularly grimm about normality.

Sweden`s GDP is forecast to contract by 6.9% best case. More or less the same as the rest of Europe.

Worse case by 9.7% depending on how long their restrictions last.


Sweden`s mortality rate is not back to a normal range. Deaths for April are the highest for any month since December 1993.

yosemitesam1

charlie14 wrote: »

Their all causes mortality rate for April is the highest since December 1993.
Two weeks ago they had the highest deaths per million from Covid-19 in Europe.
When you compare like for like their mortality rate for Covid -19 are 3.5 times greater than the combined total of their three neighbours Norway, Denmark and Finland.
They have recently passed out Ireland and the Netherlands for most deaths per population and are now 6th in Europe just behind France with the gap closing.
They have 25% more deaths than Ireland and that gap widening daily.
Their own Central Bank, best case scenario, is not forcasting their economy to do any better than anyone else.

A recent survey comparing their consumer spending when compared to Denmark, who used lock-down, as only 4% greater.
Their own antibody testing on immunity at only around 5% nationally. Same as both Spain and France who used lock-down.



Where do you see the major success in that which indicates they will be in a much stronger position than we will be ?

All cause mortality is the important figure. Covid positive deaths don't tell the full story. On all cause mortality they are in a normal range.
Adjust the mortality for April on a per capita basis and is it better or worse than December 93?
April 2020 was 250 deaths per million lower than the peak of a bad flu season in 93.

Forecasts are only forecasts.
How many businesses won't fully reopen here Vs Sweden?
It's Fantasyland stuff to be thinking an economy that was shutdown can just shrug off the costs and destruction of their market to bounce back

yosemitesam1

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden`s mortality rate is not back to a normal range. Deaths for April are the highest for any month since December 1993.

We're in may now...

charlie14

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

All cause mortality is the important figure. Covid positive deaths don't tell the full story. On all cause mortality they are in a normal range.
Adjust the mortality for April on a per capita basis and is it better or worse than December 93?
April 2020 was 250 deaths per million lower than the peak of a bad flu season in 93.

Forecasts are only forecasts.
How many businesses won't fully reopen here Vs Sweden?
It's Fantasyland stuff to be thinking an economy that was shutdown can just shrug off the costs and destruction of their market to bounce back

If you cannot accept that two weeks ago Sweden had the highest deaths per head of population from Covid-19, or that for the month of April the number of deaths was the highest since December 1993 and attempt to brush those facts under the carpet as not being Covid-19 related, then that is up to you.


I`m afraid when it comes to economic forecasts on Sweden`s GDP I am inclined to go with those of their own Central Bank, plus Sweden`s independent Institute for Economic Research rather than your guess on how their economy will perform.