Sweden avoiding lockdown

PhoenixParker

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Lockdown is just not sustainable. And as soon as you lift lockdown its only a matter of time before numbers rise.

Sweden is showing the opposite is true. Right now it seems a country can have a flat rate of infection without a lockdown.

Sweden's problem is that they've got a flat rate of 5-7 deaths per million per day.

Post lockdown we'll hopefully be at a much lower rate and if we're cautious we can have schools open, socially distant restaurants, the odd day in the office etc. without getting a big second wave.

bb1234567

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The Irish excess numbers haven't been officially counted yet.

An unofficial count using rip.ie showed an excess of about 1000 deaths for the period.

And that map shows no excess for Spain or Italy which stretches credibility.

It is just for the week 20 of the year 2020. Spain and Italy had high excess deaths in weeks prior

Kermit.de.frog

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Sweden is showing the opposite is true. Right now it seems a country can have a flat rate of infection without a lockdown.

They don't have a "flat rate of infection", they are not testing in the community - hence why it's around 500 new cases officially every single day.

Ireland has tested nearly 100,000 more people than Sweden despite having half the population.

Charles Babbage

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The Irish excess numbers haven't been officially counted yet.

An unofficial count using rip.ie showed an excess of about 1000 deaths for the period.

And that map shows no excess for Spain or Italy which stretches credibility.

The map is not cumulative deaths, it is deaths in one week. Of course Italy and Spain had excess deaths in earlier weeks, but they no longer have, while Sweden does.

PhoenixParker

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They don't have a "flat rate of infection", they are not testing in the community - hence why it's around 500 new cases officially every single day.

Ireland has tested nearly 100,000 more people than Sweden despite having half the population.

Their rate of ICU admission is roughly constant. The numbers in ICU are constant or falling. The number of deaths is roughly constant. Their health system is not being overwhelmed by exponential growth. Their R value is hovering close to 1.

Their rate is flat.

I do worry that they may get a batch of clusters at the same time which will suddenly change the situation but for now and for over a month, their curve has been flat.

biko

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Their rate of ICU admission is roughly constant.

This is because they don't admit all the people that should be there.

If you're over 70 it's unlikely you get admitted. src
Same if you have BMI over 40, a pacemaker, or a history of substance abuse.

It's like boasting that "our prisons aren't full". "But you're not arresting anyone!"

Before the contagion took hold Sweden had 526 ICU beds. Today they have about 900.
For a population of 10 million.
Of course they're not going to bring in your granny to take up a bed, and may take weeks to recover.

Breezin

Ireland ranks second in the world for care home deaths, at 62%. Sweden 49%.
It would be interesting to see the response of those here who have been claiming Sweden was engaged in a cull of old folk.

alwald

At this rate and with their strategy Sweden will become the new epicenter of Europe.

Charles Babbage

Breezin wrote: »

Ireland ranks second in the world for care home deaths, at 62%. Sweden 49%.
It would be interesting to see the response of those here who have been claiming Sweden was engaged in a cull of old folk.

I imagine they would respond that Ireland is counting all deaths that might be Covid19 while Sweden is not.

Breezin

Charles Babbage wrote: »

I imagine they would respond that Ireland is counting all deaths that might be Covid19 while Sweden is not.

They are culling old folk because they aren't counting properly?

paddar

Breezin wrote: »

Ireland ranks second in the world for care home deaths, at 62%. Sweden 49%.
It would be interesting to see the response of those here who have been claiming Sweden was engaged in a cull of old folk.

''The report warns that international comparisons are difficult, due to different approaches to recording deaths, as well as differences in testing and policies''

Also from today in Sweden, (pass it through google translate if you are interested).
https://omni.se/privata-aldreboenden-vill-inte-svara-om-dodssiffror/a/OpvJ81

''Private elderly homes will not comment on death figures. Several of the large care companies in Sweden will not answer on how many people have died of covid-19 at their elderly homes''

Also in the same article ''4,220 people have died in covid-19 in Sweden, according to the latest figures from the Public Health Authority. 49% of them lived in elderly homes and 25% had home care''

So if you total the amount of deaths in care (both residential and at home) its 74%

Danno

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ireland has tested nearly 100,000 more people than Sweden despite having half the population.

This is incorrect. Ireland has not tested 325,000 people. We have done 325k tests - many of whom are frontline health workers tested multiple times, along with selected VIPs such as Tubs, Claire Byrne and TDs.

tobefrank321

Charles Babbage wrote: »

I imagine they would respond that Ireland is counting all deaths that might be Covid19 while Sweden is not.

Source? Which deaths are they not counting?

And can you be 100% certain we are counting all deaths in every possible scenario?

There are major discrepancies in how numbers are counted in every country and also gaps. The UK numbers are all over the place, over 40,000 one week, at 35,000 the following week. Spain removed 2000 deaths from their count.

tobefrank321

paddar wrote: »

''The report warns that international comparisons are difficult, due to different approaches to recording deaths, as well as differences in testing and policies''

Also from today in Sweden, (pass it through google translate if you are interested).
https://omni.se/privata-aldreboenden-vill-inte-svara-om-dodssiffror/a/OpvJ81

''Private elderly homes will not comment on death figures. Several of the large care companies in Sweden will not answer on how many people have died of covid-19 at their elderly homes''

Also in the same article ''4,220 people have died in covid-19 in Sweden, according to the latest figures from the Public Health Authority. 49% of them lived in elderly homes and 25% had home care''

So if you total the amount of deaths in care (both residential and at home) its 74%

Home care and care homes are different though. In Ireland there is no mention of home care, just care homes. Home care is also significant in Ireland, but Holohan only mentions Residential Care settings when giving a breakdown. I suppose it needs clarification from an Irish point of view.

biko

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0527/1143036-covid-deaths-ireland
So, the numbers as percentage of total deaths, how many old folks have died?
Canada 82%
Ireland 62%
France 51%
Sweden 49%
Austria 41%
US 38-52%
Portugal 40%
Hungary 24%

Not sure what to make of this. Did we expect other countries to have less care home deaths than Sweden, who have even apologised for them?
In Canada it's so bad they have military working in the care homes.

So what does it tell us, other than just under 2000 Swedish deaths out of 4000 were in care homes?

joeysoap

It tells us that the experiment didn't work, if 50% of deaths were in the general population. And it’s 49% of a much bigger figure than it could have been.

Breezin

paddar wrote: »

''The report warns that international comparisons are difficult, due to different approaches to recording deaths, as well as differences in testing and policies''

Also from today in Sweden, (pass it through google translate if you are interested).
https://omni.se/privata-aldreboenden-vill-inte-svara-om-dodssiffror/a/OpvJ81

''Private elderly homes will not comment on death figures. Several of the large care companies in Sweden will not answer on how many people have died of covid-19 at their elderly homes''

Also in the same article ''4,220 people have died in covid-19 in Sweden, according to the latest figures from the Public Health Authority. 49% of them lived in elderly homes and 25% had home care''

So if you total the amount of deaths in care (both residential and at home) its 74%

The figures vary, and the bases for comparison are shaky. That is one of the constant themes in proper assessment of the Swedish strategy. It won't be assessed properly from daily statistics in the present, or in the immediate future.

Given the uncertainty, it might have been wiser to refrain from claiming, as some here have, that the Swedes were culling their elderly (and that it was being defended here too).

Presumably this is the end of the culling trope, unless we want to widen it.

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0527/1143036-covid-deaths-ireland
So, the numbers as percentage of total deaths, how many old folks have died?
Canada 82%
Ireland 62%
France 51%
Sweden 49%
Austria 41%
US 38-52%
Portugal 40%
Hungary 24%

Not sure what to make of this. Did we expect other countries to have less care home deaths than Sweden, who have even apologised for them?
In Canada it's so bad they have military working in the care homes.

So what does it tell us, other than just under 2000 Swedish deaths out of 4000 were in care homes?

Care homes are the problem in almost every country. Countries with substantial long running lockdowns such as Canada or Ireland or those with light lockdowns such as Sweden have a similar problem.
A number of targeted steps could have solved the care home issues in most countries.

Harry Palmr

46 deaths announced

272 deaths on a rolling 5 day tally.

JimmyVik

Breezin wrote: »

The figures vary, and the bases for comparison are shaky. That is one of the constant themes in proper assessment of the Swedish strategy. It won't be assessed properly from daily statistics in the present, or in the immediate future.

Given the uncertainty, it might have been wiser to refrain from claiming, as some here have, that the Swedes were culling their elderly (and that it was being defended here too).

Presumably this is the end of the culling trope, unless we want to widen it.

No. Their death rate figures are shocking. Its a cull of their elderly and the sick. Leaders like thiers should be help accountable for these deaths.

See it for what it is.
They could easily have done what every other country did to protect their old and their sick, but they didnt. They ran an experiment where the cost was lives. They knew this was a likely result, yet they went ahead with it.

Nobody gives a fcuk about it once they know the elderly are the ones to die.
Sure you can see that all over boards here too.

storker

JimmyVik wrote: »

No. Their death rate figures are shocking. Its a cull of their elderly and the sick. Leaders like thiers should be help accountable for these deaths.

See it for what it is.
They could easily have done what every other country did to protect their old and their sick, but they didnt. They ran an experiment where the cost was lives. They knew this was a likely result, yet they went ahead with it.

Nobody gives a fcuk about it once they know the elderly are the ones to die.
Sure you can see that all over boards here too.

I think "well beyond their economic use" is the phrase.

charlie14

Annika Linde Sweden`s state epidemiologist 2005 -2013 has described the Sweden strategy as "not the smartest"
She believes there was too much reliance on people following recommendations about social distancing rather, than enforcing restrictions on their movement.

"I think we needed more time for preparedness. If we had shut down very early, we would have been able during that time, to make sure we had what was necessary to protect the vulnerable"
On immunity, "This was like a dream that we could protect the elderly -with very little basis in reality"

Tea drinker

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Source? Which deaths are they not counting?

And can you be 100% certain we are counting all deaths in every possible scenario?

There are major discrepancies in how numbers are counted in every country and also gaps. The UK numbers are all over the place, over 40,000 one week, at 35,000 the following week. Spain removed 2000 deaths from their count.

The evidence is their lack of testing. It's not definitive but if it is a third of our testing it needs to be examined. On the face of it they are covering up the true
numbers. Plus as a country they took a disgusting approach to kill elderly people.

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

No. Their death rate figures are shocking. Its a cull of their elderly and the sick. Leaders like thiers should be help accountable for these deaths.

See it for what it is.
They could easily have done what every other country did to protect their old and their sick, but they didnt. They ran an experiment where the cost was lives. They knew this was a likely result, yet they went ahead with it.

Nobody gives a fcuk about it once they know the elderly are the ones to die.
Sure you can see that all over boards here too.

You are talking absolute BS.

Do you think Italy, Spain, UK, Belgium, Ireland, US or Netherlands were engaged in a cull of their elderly or sick? Ireland for example never banned flights and still don't enforce quarantine, even though we know old people somewhere will die because of this relaxed attitudes to borders. In the case of Italy and Cheltenham, it unquestionably cost lives.

The Swedes have taken the view that in the long term, a lockdown may not make a difference. You seem to think covid19 will be over in a matter of weeks? Unfortunately because of its infectious nature and international travel, its here to stay until a widely available vaccine, which will be at least 2 years.

We will soon see what happens as Southern Europe opens up. I doubt you will accuse Spain or Italy of engaging in a cull? Or Germany, who want to travel all over Europe.

tobefrank321

Tea drinker wrote: »

The evidence is their lack of testing. It's not definitive but if it is a third of our testing it needs to be examined. On the face of it they are covering up the true
numbers. Plus as a country they took a disgusting approach to kill elderly people.

I think you need to look at the approaches of many countries to old people including our own.
Sending possibly covid infected patients from hospitals to nursing homes to free up space in hospitals.
Virtually no treatment of care home infected in ICUs.
No help, guidance or PPE for care homes when requested.
And only an acknowledgement when the head of nursing homes asks for help.

Also sounds like a cull to me, and that the elderly aren't valued.

But hey, lets point fingers at Sweden, I mean we've done so well ourselves when it came to the elderly.

Tea drinker

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think you need to look at the approaches of many countries to old people including our own.
Sending possibly covid infected patients from hospitals to nursing homes to free up space in hospitals.
Virtually no treatment of care home infected in ICUs.
No help, guidance or PPE for care homes when requested.
And only an acknowledgement when the head of nursing homes asks for help.

Also sounds like a cull to me, and that the elderly aren't valued.

But hey, lets point fingers at Sweden, I mean we've done so well ourselves when it came to the elderly.

The thread is about Sweden, and their approach. The whole we are good at social distancing because Swedish just smacked of arrogance. Capped off with a policy of non testing and it's just inexcusable. That is a formerly wealthy country and they should know and be prepared better.
Yes wealthy countries have made many mistakes and sending untested people into nursing homes was at least negligent, I doubt we will ever see that decision properly examined (criminal case) though, in any of the countries where it did occour.

Harry Palmr

No country with any significant tally of dead can be happy with their failure of foresee what happens in a care home for the elderly during a pandemic. Hmmm sounds obvious now.

Breezin

Has it still escaped people's attention that we have treated our elderly proportionally worse? And even if we may quibble over measurement we are in the same territory?
At least they have admitted that they screwed up. I don't see that honesty coming from our lockdown leaders or from their cheeleaders here.
If you're that bloody concerned about our old folk you should focus your outrage here. Or perhaps that would have less rhetorical value. Self-righteousness, which is all around us these days, is a powerful drug.

paddar

Breezin wrote: »

The figures vary, and the bases for comparison are shaky. That is one of the constant themes in proper assessment of the Swedish strategy. It won't be assessed properly from daily statistics in the present, or in the immediate future.

And this is a problem with the Swedish strategy. It is a bold strategy but based on limited evidence and one that can't be properly assessed until the future, after which more people have potentially passed away. But a quick glance at the rates in neighboring countries should at least sound alarm bells that the wrong path was chosen.

The death rate is probably worse. Yesterday the health agency reported the number of covid-19 related deaths in Sweden is probably higher than the 4,220 that have been registered. To date, there are another 1,000 deaths that are not included in the statistics but are probably covid related.

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/fler-doda-i-covid-19-doljs-i-statistiken/

JimmyVik

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You are talking absolute BS.

Do you think Italy, Spain, UK, Belgium, Ireland, US or Netherlands were engaged in a cull of their elderly or sick? Ireland for example never banned flights and still don't enforce quarantine, even though we know old people somewhere will die because of this relaxed attitudes to borders. In the case of Italy and Cheltenham, it unquestionably cost lives.

The Swedes have taken the view that in the long term, a lockdown may not make a difference. You seem to think covid19 will be over in a matter of weeks? Unfortunately because of its infectious nature and international travel, its here to stay until a widely available vaccine, which will be at least 2 years.

We will soon see what happens as Southern Europe opens up. I doubt you will accuse Spain or Italy of engaging in a cull? Or Germany, who want to travel all over Europe.

Yep. They have take a view alright.
That has cost so many lives needlessly.